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-   -   Wii U Speculation Thread 2: Can't take anymore of this!!! (http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=459256)

wsippel 01-20-2012 06:49 PM

[QUOTE=Andrex;34429914]What possible reason does Theatrhythm have to be online?[/QUOTE]
DLC.

DXB-KNIGHT 01-20-2012 06:49 PM

[QUOTE=Andrex;34429914]What possible reason does Theatrhythm have to be online?[/QUOTE]
Multiplayer and DLC, I think?

GameplayWhore 01-20-2012 07:00 PM

[QUOTE=royalan;34428184]But, at the same time, I don't think they should pull another Wii and release a budget-priced console that's had its wings clipped in [i]every area[/i] except controls. I think downplaying the specs to achieve budget pricing [i]while[/i] making a profit on every console sold was incredibly short-sighted of Nintendo, and led to the situation they're in now: a market-leading console that inexplicably has next-to-no 3rd party software support and will have been dead for about 2 years in terms of compelling software releases by the time its successor launches. I mean, it's [i]insane[/i] to think about how deflated the Wii brand is right now when it was so untouchable just 2 years ago.[/QUOTE]

For what it's worth, a lot of the problems with the late-life Wii fizzle come down to elements other than the raw performance of the system. Even though it was relatively easy to develop for, it used very different toolchains* and methodologies compared to competing systems, so to developers it might as well have been a Blackberry. Additionally, the controller was [i]so different[/i] that many of the design philosophies regarding gameplay had to be tossed away and reimagined if a game was to be ported over from other systems.

I believe that the Wii U helps this problem to a great extent by
(A) using a much more conventional graphics processor, which means that cross compiling using the same or similar code would be much easier. No more weird TEV handling, just the regular texture effect programming that devs have grown used to, for instance
(B) using a controller which is essentially directly mapped to competing controllers, with the exception of the (not that often used?) clickability feature of the analog directionals and (not sure about this) analogness of the bottom shoulder buttons.

edit: The difference being that with the Wii, 3rd parties [i]had[/i] to make the controls vastly different for many genres, whereas for the Wii U, they can largely make the controls exactly the same, and anything beyond that (usage of accelerometer/gyrometer/magnetometer, touchscreen, camera, sound, etc) becomes purely optional

Keep in mind that the Wii [i]started[/i] with next to no 3rd party support, at least in terms of the big runners. Anything that was brought over was, at least initially, often limited in ways that went beyond the technical limits of the console (like that zombie mode missing from CoD). It is difficult to say how Wii U will start off, but from the limited accounts we've heard, the 3rd party support will likely be stronger to start than it was with the Wii, and the relative performance, if important at all, will be a tiny, tiny fraction of the gulf that we saw from Wii to PS3/360.


[QUOTE=royalan;34428184]The lesson [i]I[/i] hope Nintendo takes from this is that long-term platform viability is just as important as mass-market appeal, and that it's possible to achieve [i]both[/i] (just look at how well the 360's doing so late in its life). But with that controller, I don't think it'll be possible to do at a -$300 price. If it meant sustained viability (an entire gen of 3rd party relevance, for example), I'd happily pay 350-400 for the Wii U, and I think a lot of people would if Nintendo could communicate that value. -$400 is not nearly as insane as 599 US DOLLARS.[/QUOTE]

The thing is, the 360 (and to a lesser extent the PS3) is doing well now because the companies behind them unloaded money as if it was on fire, for years, in order to achieve mindshare. We're talking about losses in the multiple billions of dollars until ongoing profit was attained. This strategy seems to have a 50% chance of working at best, and the downside is bankruptcy. Nintendo's philosophy is a far safer one, as it involves making a small profit or selling at or near breakeven from the start.

Wii was highly profitable from the start. At $250, Nintendo could have made a far, far more powerful machine which sold at cost. Right now, Nintendo could make a machine that is far more powerful than the current-gen systems at $250 with minimal loss, if any. The interpretation of the word "far" is, of course, subjective.

As for the controller? It looks to be much less expensive to build than the $70 Android tablet that we're seeing online. It has no processing or gpu capability to speak of, just a much lower resolution screen than the aforementioned, still-cheap devices. I'd be surprised if the Wii U controller cost them more than $50 to make, and I suspect it is likely less than that.


...walls of text become much more fun when Sales-Age is stoked by new releases.


* (edit) use of this word is an assumption

-Pyromaniac- 01-20-2012 07:06 PM

Interesting, interesting.

[Nintex] 01-20-2012 07:14 PM

[QUOTE=Skiesofwonder;34429940]Yep.

It pretty much confirms that we will hear something about this during the investor meeting. Also seems like perfect timing to get your new online system out in the open with GDC coming up.[/QUOTE]

But the Mayans predicted it would happen at the end of 2012

StevieP 01-20-2012 07:16 PM

The Wii was making $8 per console in operating profit for Nintendo as of 2008, says [URL="http://www.forbes.com/2008/11/28/nintendo-wii-wii2-tech-personal-cz-cs-1201wii.html"]Forbes[/URL]. Brings the loss leader strategy into perspective.

GameplayWhore 01-20-2012 07:23 PM

[QUOTE=StevieP;34430565]The Wii was making $8 per console in operating profit for Nintendo as of 2008, says [URL="http://www.forbes.com/2008/11/28/nintendo-wii-wii2-tech-personal-cz-cs-1201wii.html"]Forbes[/URL]. Brings the loss leader strategy into perspective.[/QUOTE]

It's $6, according to the article, but that's not important.

What is important is that the figure is quoted from David Gibson, an analyst at Macquarie Securities, and his source is not given. The article also states that the Wii sells for $260. I am skeptical of the figure. Granted, I don't actually have anything amounting to counterevidence. I only have the suspicion that the profit was higher than this based on the grumblings that it was profitable in 2006 and that it had the same price in 2008, and components should have been cheaper by then.

[Nintex] 01-20-2012 07:26 PM

[QUOTE=GameplayWhore;34430725]It's $6, according to the article, but that's not important.

What is important is that the figure is quoted from David Gibson, an analyst at Macquarie Securities, and his source is not given. The article also states that the Wii sells for $260. I am skeptical of the figure. Granted, I don't actually have anything amounting to counterevidence. I only have the suspicion that the profit was higher than this based on the grumblings that it was profitable in 2006 and that it had the same price in 2008, and components should have been cheaper by then.[/QUOTE]

You only need to look at the billions Nintendo earned during those years to see they got a much bigger margin.

Effect 01-20-2012 07:27 PM

Is there particular reason why Nintendo seems to be against putting a ethernet port on the Wii U and even the Wii? Could they be saving a significant amount by not including one?

-Pyromaniac- 01-20-2012 07:28 PM

[quote=Effect;34430836]Is there particular reason why Nintendo seems to be against putting a ethernet port on the Wii U and even the Wii? Could they be saving a significant amount by not including one?[/quote]
they probably haven't wikipedia'd ethernet port yet. They just learned what the internet was recently. Baby steps.

[Nintex] 01-20-2012 07:30 PM

[QUOTE=Effect;34430836]Is there particular reason why Nintendo seems to be against putting a ethernet port on the Wii U and even the Wii? Could they be saving a significant amount by not including one?[/QUOTE]

It's like phones in Africa, they skipped the landlines and went straight to cell phones. Nintendo skipped ethernet and jumped right on WiFi.

Alistair Roo 01-20-2012 07:33 PM

[QUOTE=Penguin;34429216][url]http://mynintendonews.com/2012/01/20/nintendo-is-preparing-nintendo-network/[/url]

Probably a stretch, but something about a Nintendo Network[/QUOTE]

Interesting I must say
I'm not a fan of the logo but I like how it sounds as a online infrastructure... Nintendo Network

rpmurphy 01-20-2012 07:36 PM

[QUOTE='[Nintex];34430900']It's like phones in Africa, they skipped the landlines and went straight to cell phones. Nintendo skipped ethernet and jumped right on WiFi.[/QUOTE]

Nintendo driving technology forward!

TheCongressman1 01-20-2012 07:36 PM

[QUOTE=Effect;34430836]Is there particular reason why Nintendo seems to be against putting a ethernet port on the Wii U and even the Wii? Could they be saving a significant amount by not including one?[/QUOTE]

I'm going to say the floor model at E3 didn't have any internet ability at all, because it would be odd that they would have went for a more expensive wireless unit than a cheep ethernet port, especially since they didn't show off anything that would need it.

royalan 01-20-2012 07:39 PM

[QUOTE=GameplayWhore;34430207]Great Post[/QUOTE]

I agree with everything you say, although I'm still not sure how comfortable I'd be with a Wii U priced below 300. I mean, PS360 are still in that range, although for reasons Nintendo probably won't have to worry about. Nintendo doesn't want to go [i]too[/i] cheap here. With the HD twins hitting their stride pricing similarly to them will only reinforce the idea that the Wii U is just a Wii with a minor upgrade.

I dunno, my gut feeling tells me Nintendo will go for around $339 - $350, selling at cost. At that price it'll hardly break the bank, and It'll provide a nice, noticeable spec-bump over the current HD consoles and hopefully keep it in a good position when MS and Sony launch their next machines.

Although it is nice that Nintendo is moving to hardware that 3rd parties will easily be able to, it's walking a fine line between PS2 and Dreamcast outcomes, I fear...

relaxor 01-20-2012 07:43 PM

For the last 3 generations Nintendo fans (myself included) have been excited to hear that 3rd party will be there but watch as the support trickles away.

WiiU is in an okay position for 3rd party support, better than last, but I'm definitely taking a skeptical stance for the time being.

Sadist 01-20-2012 07:48 PM

Is this news?

[QUOTE]Nintendo told us at CES that 3rd party developers have already received final devkits, so we would imagine that EA and other companies have a better idea about the support of multiple Wii U controllers than we do.[/QUOTE]

[url=http://www.industrygamers.com/news/wii-u-dont-discount-the-tablet-controller/]Source[/url]

GameplayWhore 01-20-2012 07:49 PM

[QUOTE=royalan;34431114]I agree with everything you say, although I'm still not sure how comfortable I'd be with a Wii U priced below 300. I mean, PS360 are still in that range, although for reasons Nintendo probably won't have to worry about. Nintendo doesn't want to go [i]too[/i] cheap here. With the HD twins hitting their stride pricing similarly to them will only reinforce the idea that the Wii U is just a Wii with a minor upgrade.[/QUOTE]

The weird thing is that I'm kind of a Nintendo fan, but my bias here is actually caused by the fact that I'm a cheapskate who wants everything for free. $350 systems would mean that I enter the generation three or four years later. :/

[spoiler]PS3 looks interesting as a future purchase, but I wish they'd put backwards compatibility in again.[/spoiler]

Indyana 01-20-2012 07:51 PM

Nothing big, but I found this:
[QUOTE]Nintendo told us at CES that 3rd party developers have already received final devkits[/QUOTE]

[URL="http://www.industrygamers.com/news/wii-u-dont-discount-the-tablet-controller/"]industrygamers[/URL]

Edit: beaten :(

MDX 01-20-2012 08:15 PM

[QUOTE=Sadist;34431350]Is this news?



[url=http://www.industrygamers.com/news/wii-u-dont-discount-the-tablet-controller/]Source[/url][/QUOTE]



So thats it. Nintendo is locked in.
They must be confident.

royalan 01-20-2012 08:27 PM

[quote][b]The weird thing is that I'm kind of a Nintendo fan, but my bias here is actually caused by the fact that I'm a cheapskate who wants everything for free.[/b] $350 systems would mean that I enter the generation three or four years later. :/[/quote]

Funny thing is this is exactly why I want the Wii U to cost a little more at launch. It's really important to me this upcoming gen that Nintendo works to maintain long-term viability.

Despite my pessimism, I have been a Nintendo gamer since playing with my dad's NES while in diapers. I have entered every gen through Nintendo's gate. I've always gotten Nintendo consoles [i]first[/i] and waited for mid-gen price slashes before picking up other hardware.

I was a Wii-only gamer for the first three years of this gen. Things started getting a bit scarce for me as far as AAA titles that interested me by year two so, when the 360 finally came down in price, I picked one up.

And I was completely overwhelmed by the sheer amount of great games that the 360 already had in its catalog (with a flood of great games still to come), and this was [i]before[/i] I checked out Live.

In short, as a gamer I felt like a fool for sticking with the Wii for so long. An absolute fool.

If there is one thing I'm taking away from this gen, it's that [i]no one developer's games[/i] is enough for me to go in on a console at launch price. My money is precious, and value is important. And for me, there was more value in a more expensive 360 than in a budget-priced Wii. And the 360 maintains its value with the sheer amount of support the platform is still receiving, while the Wii is pretty much dead.

If Nintendo can't convince me this E3 that they have a definite plan to sustain long-term viability and value for my dollar, this will probably be the first gen I don't buy a Nintendo console at launch. And that thought makes me sad. :(

Luckily, though, contemporary hardware will at least insure that 3rd party support is [i]better[/i]. So that's something.

AceBandage 01-20-2012 08:56 PM

[QUOTE=Sadist;34431350]Is this news?



[url=http://www.industrygamers.com/news/wii-u-dont-discount-the-tablet-controller/]Source[/url][/QUOTE]That's what bg has been saying. Final dev kits are out.

ShockingAlberto 01-20-2012 09:05 PM

"Final" devkits are kind of a misnomer when talking about Nintendo.

They tend to leave some things locked and open them later with firmware updates.

HanShotFirst 01-20-2012 09:11 PM

So if final dev kits are out does that point toward a possible summer release?
From I what I understand final 360 dev kits were only released a few months before the 360 launch but I'm sure Nintendo works differently than Microsoft.

DCKing 01-20-2012 09:17 PM

[QUOTE=ShockingAlberto;34433320]They tend to leave some things locked and open them later with firmware updates.[/QUOTE]Is this true for consoles before the 3DS as well?

Also: I wish lherre would state his opinion on the devkit :)

-WindYoshi- 01-20-2012 09:19 PM

[QUOTE=GameplayWhore;34431372]$350 systems would mean that I enter the generation three or four years later. :/[/QUOTE]

Good luck with that! You better buy a Wii U by December 20th, or else you'll never have a chance to experience the next generation hahah!

AceBandage 01-20-2012 09:23 PM

[QUOTE=DCKing;34433600]Is this true for consoles before the 3DS as well?

Also: I wish lherre would state his opinion on the devkit :)[/QUOTE]

Not for hardware, no.
For the N64, they locked some developers out of all of the systems resources (no idea why) and for the Wii they added additional software features.

Alistair Roo 01-20-2012 09:26 PM

[QUOTE=HanShotFirst;34433471]So if final dev kits are out does that point toward a possible summer release?
From I what I understand final 360 dev kits were only released a few months before the 360 launch but I'm sure Nintendo works differently than Microsoft.[/QUOTE]


Wii launched 6 months after the final dev kits were out if I'm not mistaken.
if they're doing the same, we're looking for a release on July, just a month after E3, so there just little to no time to create enough hype.
I'm sticking with a September launch tho... not too early not too late

Boerseun 01-20-2012 09:27 PM

[QUOTE=royalan;34432325]Funny thing is this is exactly why I want the Wii U to cost a little more at launch. It's really important to me this upcoming gen that Nintendo works to maintain long-term viability.

Despite my pessimism, I have been a Nintendo gamer since playing with my dad's NES while in diapers. I have entered every gen through Nintendo's gate. I've always gotten Nintendo consoles [i]first[/i] and waited for mid-gen price slashes before picking up other hardware.

I was a Wii-only gamer for the first three years of this gen. Things started getting a bit scarce for me as far as AAA titles that interested me by year two so, when the 360 finally came down in price, I picked one up.

And I was completely overwhelmed by the sheer amount of great games that the 360 already had in its catalog (with a flood of great games still to come), and this was [i]before[/i] I checked out Live.

In short, as a gamer I felt like a fool for sticking with the Wii for so long. An absolute fool.

If there is one thing I'm taking away from this gen, it's that [i]no one developer's games[/i] is enough for me to go in on a console at launch price. My money is precious, and value is important. And for me, there was more value in a more expensive 360 than in a budget-priced Wii. And the 360 maintains its value with the sheer amount of support the platform is still receiving, while the Wii is pretty much dead.

If Nintendo can't convince me this E3 that they have a definite plan to sustain long-term viability and value for my dollar, this will probably be the first gen I don't buy a Nintendo console at launch. And that thought makes me sad. :(

Luckily, though, contemporary hardware will at least insure that 3rd party support is [i]better[/i]. So that's something.[/QUOTE]

I was just the other way around.

I was a 360 gamer first. But it came to a point where I was just bored out of my mind with a catalog overflowing with "me too" aesthetics and too similar gameplay situations. It got so bad that I started losing faith in the ability of video games to entertain and provide the escapism I sought.

I then bought a Wii and the platform proved to be an absolute lifesaver! It reintroduced me to the concept of "games as fun" and I'll be damned if I'm not jumping in Day One next gen by buying a Wii U at PAL launch.

guek 01-20-2012 09:30 PM

[QUOTE=DCKing;34433600]Is this true for consoles before the 3DS as well?

Also: I wish lherre would state his opinion on the devkit :)[/QUOTE]

I get the feeling lhere can't say squat due to information lockdowns. Also, he doesn't work directly with the dev kit iirc.

EloquentM 01-20-2012 09:31 PM

Things are finally beginning to move

AceBandage 01-20-2012 09:31 PM

[QUOTE=EloquentM;34433924]Things are finally beginning to move[/QUOTE]

But move where?
That is the question.

Fredrik 01-20-2012 09:32 PM

What was locked and then unlocked on the 3DS?

ShockingAlberto 01-20-2012 09:32 PM

I've never found the idea of needing to buy multiple systems for a full experience to be all that repulsive, myself.

If I owned any one system this past generation, I probably would have been envious at the experience of the others.

[QUOTE=Fredrik;34433952]What was locked and then unlocked on the 3DS?[/QUOTE]

You're going to laugh.



The 3D.

EVH 01-20-2012 09:34 PM

The Nintendo Connection sounds cool, but don't think that Nintendo is going to change the online system now, when they just updated the friend list in 3DS.

I mean, probably is just a rebranding, so they can move on from Nintendo Wifi Connection and create some kind of "unified" logo for the 3DS and WiiU systems.

Hope we get some info at GDC.

[Nintex] 01-20-2012 09:34 PM

[QUOTE=ShockingAlberto;34433956]
You're going to laugh.



The 3D.[/QUOTE]

:o :/ :| :> :) :D

Buahahahhaa, are you serious?

AceBandage 01-20-2012 09:36 PM

No, they freed up part of the second core for developers because they were able to make the OS run better, or something.

Bear 01-20-2012 09:37 PM

[QUOTE='[Nintex];34430815']You only need to look at the billions Nintendo earned during those years to see they got a much bigger margin.[/QUOTE]

Not necessarily, the vast majority of the profit was from software (like it is with every console). Hardware margins are always pretty slim. I'll admit $6 sounds a bit [i]too[/i] small, especially for 2008, but I wouldn't expect the actual figure to be very large. Console hardware is never sold for a self-sustaining profit since they rely almost entirely on software to make money.

HanShotFirst 01-20-2012 09:38 PM

[QUOTE=Alistair Roo;34433822]Wii launched 6 months after the final dev kits were out if I'm not mistaken.
if they're doing the same, we're looking for a release on July, just a month after E3, so there just little to no time to create enough hype.
I'm sticking with a September launch tho... not too early not too late[/QUOTE]

Yeah That's what I'm thinking too. They probably want to hype the system enough as well as allow developers enough time to have games ready for launch to avoid the 3DS situation.

wsippel 01-20-2012 09:41 PM

[QUOTE=AceBandage;34434033]No, they freed up part of the second core for developers because they were able to make the OS run better, or something.[/QUOTE]
Nah, it's true. Supposedly. They activated 3D (and seemingly doubled the GPU speed at the same time). They didn't unlock the second core until recently.

AceBandage 01-20-2012 09:42 PM

[QUOTE=wsippel;34434156]Nah, it's true. Supposedly. They activated 3D (and seemingly doubled the GPU speed at the same time). They didn't unlock the second core until recently.[/QUOTE]

Really?
So launch games were running on basically half the system?

guek 01-20-2012 09:44 PM

I hope they launch in the summer. I wont have much time for gaming in the fall :-(

Fredrik 01-20-2012 09:47 PM

[QUOTE=wsippel;34434156]Nah, it's true. Supposedly. They activated 3D (and seemingly doubled the GPU speed at the same time). They didn't unlock the second core until recently.[/QUOTE]lol that's nuts
Is that the reason why RE:R looks so good compared to just about everything else?

-Pyromaniac- 01-20-2012 09:47 PM

[quote=guek;34434206]I hope they launch in the summer. I wont have much time for gaming in the fall :-([/quote]
september to november is like the gift and the curse. Lots of great games always come out in that time frame, but it's also the time classes begin/midterms/almost finals.

THE:MILKMAN 01-20-2012 09:51 PM

[QUOTE=wsippel;34434156]Nah, it's true. Supposedly. They activated 3D (and seemingly doubled the GPU speed at the same time). They didn't unlock the second core until recently.[/QUOTE]

Wow, if true. Won't this have implications for the already marginal battery life?

Lupin the Third 01-20-2012 09:51 PM

[QUOTE=AceBandage;34434170]Really?
So launch games were running on basically half the system?[/QUOTE]

They didn't open up the full second core. The new update opened up like 1/3 or 1/4 of core 2 for developers, the rest is still being used for the OS overhead and network management.

Andrex 01-20-2012 09:52 PM

[QUOTE=EloquentM;34433924]Things are finally beginning to move[/QUOTE]

[url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSsTnfqTfPg[/url]

Fredrik 01-20-2012 09:52 PM

[QUOTE=HanShotFirst;34434087]Yeah That's what I'm thinking too. They probably want to hype the system enough as well as allow developers enough time to have games ready for launch to avoid the 3DS situation.[/QUOTE]Same here, it would be very bold and cool and all that with a surprise launch right after E3, but it would also be stupid. I think they'll use E3 to start the hype train and then launch the system 3 months later.

Fredrik 01-20-2012 09:58 PM

[QUOTE=Andrex;34434397][url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSsTnfqTfPg[/url][/QUOTE]lol

wsippel 01-20-2012 10:00 PM

[QUOTE=THE:MILKMAN;34434377]Wow, if true. Won't this have implications for the already marginal battery life?[/QUOTE]
Probably not. The core was always active, but it was only doing operating system and background stuff. Nintendo either realized that they'll never need all the power for the OS or optimized the OS to free some resources, so that power is now available to game developers.


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