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SALES-AGE: Why Wii will be getting Japanese exclusives (but not Western!)

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Yeah, my first thought would be DUH too, but it really isn't that simple.

Yes, in Japan the Wii is selling faster than the PS2 at its point in the lifecycle (thanks JJSLONE). Yes, in the US the Wii has been outselling the PS3 and 360 both for every month except for two in the last year. Various estimates for worldwide hardware LTD for consoles show the Wii is sitting around 20 million, while the 360 and PS3 are at 16 million and 10 million respectively.

rkwig5.jpg

(chart by Donny2112)

So the Wii should be getting console exclusives left and right, right? WRONG! Well, more specifically, half wrong. The Wii *should* be getting Japanese exclusives (ones important to the hardcore Japanese public anyway) while they should not be getting Western exclusives (ones important to to the hardcore Western public anyway).

Not even acknowledging the admitted hatred that western devs have for the little GC-that-could, not even referencing the obvious disconnect that FPSs and other HD-reliant genres would create, we can show that the Wii should be getting Japanese exclusives but WILL NOT be getting Western ones. Current trends show this likely to be true for the entire generation. Still, I acknowledge that this is a readily apparent suggestion to many and it comes as obvious to most. (Of COURSE the FPS, Sports, and wRPGS will be going to the 360 and the PS3!) I would however like to show those that would think that it may change in the near future that it just isn't happening. Enjoy the show:

Japan
Here you can see just how dominant the Wii has been in Japan. It dominates sales from day one and never relinquishes hold. I think the PS3 will definitely be making slight gains in the next 12 months but it will never overcome the deficit that earned in its first year. The 360 shows up here as statistical noise. These charts show that some Japanese exclusives might be expected in the near future:

mc-weekly-line-67.jpg


mc-marketshare-pie-67.jpg


mc-marketshare-line-67.jpg


mc-LTD-67.jpg


Why you can expect Japanese exclusives in the near future:

mc-wii-lead-67.jpg



US
What you can see is a HUGE difference that the 360 makes in US sales. That year head start really, really helped. The 360 is matching the Wii almost stride for stride and is still currently ahead.

NPD-LTD-0208.jpg


NPD-MONTHLY-0208.jpg


NPD-MS-LINE-0208.jpg


NPD-MS-PIE-0208.jpg



Why the Wii will not be getting Western exclusives for the entire generation:

NPD-NEXTGEN-LEAD-0208.jpg


I believe that Western devs in general will be viewing the 360 and the PS3 as the same console and will be treating their audience as one, which is what this last chart shows.


Major assumptions
Assumptions do not necessarily make any of the above true or any of the below real.

[ ] That Japanese Devs value the Japanese public's buying habits over the Western public's buying habits. (and that they value money).

[ ] That *exclusive* in this context means hardcore big-name, big-budget games that are targetted toward a hardcore audience. In that assumption, we are automatically excluding every title that includes wii-exclusive content but is not itself exclusive, or other mass-market titles that don't apply specifically to the interest of this forum (Brain Age, EA Cheerleading, Ubisoft mini-game collections, etc)

[ ] That previously announced Japanese titles for specific consoles will not be switching formats if they haven't already.

[ ] That Western devs really do believe that the PS3 and 360 are the same exact audience and that developing games for them as one (or porting from one to the other) does not incur a significant enough cost to impact their development.

[ ] That NPD exact numbers are now estimates that have been rounded off where they were once provided. Do not get hung up on numbers past the one-hundred thousands.

[ ] That this analysis and definitions therein is tailored towards GAF for the purposes of discussion.


Sources:
Donny112, JoshuaJSlone, various members of Sales-Age.

WW Chart: US - NPD, Canada - NPD, ,Japan - Media Create , Europe + Other - ELSPA, GfK, and other trackers / press releases and estimation where needed.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
You should be right (re: Japan) but we certainly aren't seeing it yet.

And, given 3rd party performance on the Wii in Japan so far, I'm not completely convinced we're going to see a huge shift.
 

XiaNaphryz

LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
A large reason why the Wii hasn't gotten as many exclusives yet is that the PS2 is still a strong viable platform over there, we're still seeing a lot of games announced for the platform.
 

sakuragi

Banned
Wii getting Japanese exclusives?

More like the biggest Japanese games are on other platforms and the Wii is getting their exclusive cheap side projects :lol
 

KTallguy

Banned
The thing is, what KIND of exclusives?

Do you want to play this:

ff03.jpg


Or do you want to play this:

final-fantasy-xiii-big.jpg


From what I've seen from Wii console exclusives, Japanese companies have been tailoring their experiences to the supposed audiences of the system.
 

fresquito

Member
XiaNaphryz said:
A large reason why the Wii hasn't gotten as many exclusives yet is that the PS2 is still a strong viable platform over there, we're still seeing a lot of games announced for the platform.
Given that PS2 has been outselling PS3 in the US on a regular basis makes your "there" a bit hazy.
 

Redd

Member
schuelma said:
You should be right (re: Japan) but we certainly aren't seeing it yet.

And, given 3rd party performance on the Wii in Japan so far, I'm not completely convinced we're going to see a huge shift.

Yeah I feel the same way. I'll believe it when I see it. Hopefully most Wii owners didn't buy the console banking on alot of Japanese third party support.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
XiaNaphryz said:
A large reason why the Wii hasn't gotten as many exclusives yet is that the PS2 is still a strong viable platform over there, we're still seeing a lot of games announced for the platform.

A very good point. PS2/Wii releases always have the PS2 version kicking the Wii version's ass. No incentive to only put out those games for the Wii.
 

Minsc

Gold Member
Nice post, it certainly looks like Wii should be getting Japanese exclusives, but software sales are important to people developing software, as important if not more important than the hardware sales.

You really want to be thorough, do the same for comparing how software is selling :D
 

XiaNaphryz

LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
fresquito said:
Given that PS2 has been outselling PS3 in the US on a regular basis makes your "there" a bit hazy.
While that's true, there's also many Japanese exclusives that will never go outside their market, which was one of the points I was trying to get across.
 
Well, you can spin it any way you want really. Fact is that Wii will not be getting any games that 360 or PS3 fans really want to play anyway. Systems are too different for that. Only console the Wii might be stealing from would be the PS2.

But you could argue that if jap devs focus too much on Wii they won't make PS3/360 games, a statement thats simply not true. A 4 console future is way more probable, PS2, Wii, 360 and PS3. PS2 and Wii already has really big userbases and both PS3 and 360 are selling too good for any company to disregard.

However there will be two camps that will get games:

Wii/Ps2/(Psp)

360/Ps3/PC

And if you want to talk exclusives it only really matters beetween those in the same camp. You will probably not see nintendo crying over another shooter on 360 and sony will not be too upset if Wii gets another party game.

To be honest the only two that really can hurt eachother with exclusives are Sony and MS. They aim for the same demographic and has similar consoles and strategies. I however belive that the market is growing and perhaps finally segmenting into casual and high-end equipment, all with their own viability.

And nice post ^^ Wii is a monster for sales-age.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Minsc said:
You really want to be thorough, do the same for comparing how software is selling :D


Wii software is killing the competition. It's laughable really.

The problem is so far most of that software selling isn't comforting to 3rd parties.
 

fresquito

Member
The main pronlem I'm seeing with Wii software is that publishers are struggling to Nintendify their products, and when it comes to products that are not Nintendified, they are ports of games from past generation. There're some exceptions here and there, like Red Steel, No More Heroes or Umbrella Chronicles, which, surprise surprise, have sold pretty nicely.

Devs and publishers need to put their shit together and know what they best do, not what Wii consumers are supposed to like.
 

sakuragi

Banned
Big Japanese titles released and to be released on the PS3, Xbox 360, and Wii:



Devil may cry 4 - PS3/Xbox 360

Resident Evil 5 - PS3/ Xbox 360

Dynasty warrior 6 - PS3/ Xbox 360

Yakuza 3 - PS3

Final Fantasy 13 - PS3

Final Fantasy 13 versus - PS3

Persona 4 - PS2

MGS4 - PS3

Silent hill 5 - PS3

Ace combat 6 - Xbox 360

Tales of Vesperia - Xbox 360

The last remnant - PS3/Xbox 360


The only big game I see for the Wii is Monster hunter 3. Anyone care to add?
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
jakershaker said:
Well, you can spin it any way you want really. Fact is that Wii will not be getting any games that 360 or PS3 fans really want to play anyway. Systems are too different for that. Only console the Wii might be stealing from would be the PS2.


.

I think you're wrong in Japan.

Just look at MH3- a PS3 exclusive, now a Wii exclusive.
 

Redd

Member
sakuragi said:
Big Japanese titles released and to be released on the PS3, Xbox 360, and Wii:



The only big game I see for the Wii is Monster hunter 3. Anyone care to add?

Well I guess the Tales game on the Wii at least.
 
Not a real revelation, I think people have been saying for months and rightfully so that because often devs (especially western devs) decide to either make a PS3/360 project or a Wii project and the install base of PS3/360 is higher in NA, the primary market for many of these projects.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
sakuragi said:
Big Japanese titles released and to be released on the PS3, Xbox 360, and Wii:



Devil may cry 4 - PS3/Xbox 360

Resident Evil 5 - PS3/ Xbox 360

Dynasty warrior 6 - PS3/ Xbox 360

Yakuza 3 - PS3

Final Fantasy 13 - PS3

Final Fantasy 13 versus - PS3

Persona 4 - PS2

MGS4 - PS3

Silent hill 5 - PS3

Ace combat 6 - Xbox 360

Tales of Vesperia - Xbox 360

The last remnant - PS3/Xbox 360


The only big game I see for the Wii is Monster hunter 3. Anyone care to add?

Hmm..well, sales wise, I don't think Silent Hill is at all big in Japan- in fact, I think Fatal Frame might sell a bit more.

I would absolutely put ToS:KoR, Dragon Quest Swords and FF:CC:CB in that list.
 

Eteric Rice

Member
GitarooMan said:
Not a real revelation, I think people have been saying for months and rightfully so that because often devs (especially western devs) decide to either make a PS3/360 project or a Wii project and the install base of PS3/360 is higher in NA, the primary market for many of these projects.

That will probably be changing in the near future (install base I mean).
 

jarrod

Banned
I'd say the move is more away from "PlayStation only" than it is towards Wii specifically. JP games are moving to Wii, but even moreso they're moving to HD multiplatform (usually with 360 being the lead even).


sakuragi said:
Big Japanese titles released and to be released on the PS3, Xbox 360, and Wii:



Devil may cry 4 - PS3/Xbox 360

Resident Evil 5 - PS3/ Xbox 360

Dynasty warrior 6 - PS3/ Xbox 360

Yakuza 3 - PS3

Final Fantasy 13 - PS3

Final Fantasy 13 versus - PS3

Persona 4 - PS2

MGS4 - PS3

Silent hill 5 - PS3

Ace combat 6 - Xbox 360

Tales of Vesperia - Xbox 360

The last remnant - PS3/Xbox 360


The only big game I see for the Wii is Monster hunter 3. Anyone care to add?
Fatal Frame 4, Monkey Ball 3, Harvest Moon, PowaPuro, Winning Eleven, Puyo Puyo... Nintendo's still getting a few core series locked up and multi, but it's weird that most of their big league 3rd party stuff seems to be spinoffs (Symphonia KOR, REUC, Sonic SR, FFCC, DQ Swords, etc) or reissues (HotD2+3, RE4, Okami, etc).

One noted trend though, is top teams doing new IPs for Wii. Stuff like FamiSki, Sky Crawlers, Dewy, Zak & Wiki, WLGolf or Fragile... this was happening a bit on 360 too initially (Dead Rising, Lost Planet, Eternal Sonata, FCK, etc) but now that the machine established itself in foreign markets, it's getting more pedigree IPs.


Expect a complete shitstorm when Wii gets KH3 tho. :lol
 

birdchili

Member
partly there are problems of knowing what *can* sell on wii. nintendo has brought over a majority of the gamecube crowd, as well as a pile of "new audience" gamers enticed by wii ___.

third parties are largely releasing stuff that copies what nintendo has done on the new audience front, and generally being non-brave with ip, and chintzy on the dev team quality. it's not particularly surprising to me there aren't a lot of success stories here yet. with so few daring to try, it's not likely there'll be a big breakout hit anytime soon either.

opoona is really the only legit jrpg on the system and bombed massively in japan, in spite of decent reviews. sure, it looks strange, but you'd think wii would cater a bit to the strange-loving crowd.

i'm still assuming there's going to be an influx of stuff in a large number of genres - the hd base isn't growing quickly enough to support anything like the environment that worked under the ps2's rule, so some devs are going to have to make a legit attempt on wii. there haven't been enough hd releases yet for there to have been a lot of high-profile failures, but we're going to start seeing them.
 
They will get western exclusives in the mid or long term. Its just a matter of numbers.

Some companies will shift faster, some companies will shift later, some will go multiplatform. But at this rate in a couple of years, shareholders will demand Wii games, so most companies will develop with Wii and DS in mind first.

Companies are run by looking at numbers. They are not run by gamers but by bussiness people. here is a proof:

Big Japanese titles released and to be released on the PS3, Xbox 360, and Wii:

Devil may cry 4 - PS3/Xbox 360

Resident Evil 5 - PS3/ Xbox 360

Dynasty warrior 6 - PS3/ Xbox 360

Yakuza 3 - PS3

Final Fantasy 13 - PS3

Final Fantasy 13 versus - PS3

Persona 4 - PS2

MGS4 - PS3

Silent hill 5 - PS3

Ace combat 6 - Xbox 360

Tales of Vesperia - Xbox 360

The last remnant - PS3/Xbox 360

All those games were green lighted when numbers indicated that PS3 was going to be a monster hit. Today i doubt it would be the same
 

andthebeatgoeson

Junior Member
PantherLotus said:
Sources:
various members of Sales-Age.
Aw, dude, you didn't have to mention me. I'm honored.

BTW, you should break out that last chart each month in the NPD threads. I'm not asking for analysis but the charts are always welcomed.
 
hokahey said:
Why sad? Makes sense.
Just a personal opinion, business wise it definitely makes sense, but I'd much rather see some kind of graphical advance on a game like KH, where to be honest, the colorful disney worlds are as much a driving force of the experience as the gameplay.
 
Starchasing said:
They will get western exclusives in the mid or long term. Its just a matter of numbers.

Some companies will shift faster, some companies will shift later, some will go multiplatform. But at this rate in a couple of years, shareholders will demand Wii games, so most companies will develop with Wii and DS in mind first.

Companies are run by looking at numbers. They are not run by gamers but by bussiness people. here is a proof:
Yeah, but the point of this thread (I think) is that the numbers show a five million unit lead in the US for PS3/360 over Wii (obviously some people own both a PS3 and 360 which lessens the impact of that number but still). Maybe I'm crazy but I don't see Wii passing the combined total of 360/PS3 in NA anytime soon.
 
birdchili said:
opoona is really the only legit jrpg on the system and bombed massively in japan, in spite of decent reviews. sure, it looks strange, but you'd think wii would cater a bit to the strange-loving crowd.

So now we are strange for buying Z&W, REC,RE4,NMH and soon PES WII in droves but refusing to buy something that looks like an insult? :lol
 

derder

Member
Wow. I'm equaly amazed at the conclusion as i am at the presentation.

Queue kotaku ripping this data off in 3..2..
 

Luckyman

Banned
Most franchises are already locked up for years to come. Resident Evil 6 or Final Fantasy XIV won't be seen until next-gen.

Good luck Wii.
 
GitarooMan said:
Yeah, but the point of this thread (I think) is that the numbers show a five million unit lead in the US for PS3/360 over Wii (obviously some people own both a PS3 and 360 which lessens the impact of that number but still). Maybe I'm crazy but I don't see Wii passing the combined total of 360/PS3 in NA anytime soon.

Thats why i said in the mid long term.... and also because if the market behaves normally 360 and PS3 sales will slow down. There are many factors like lowers costs and others that i dunno the word in english but the Wii will follow the DS pattern.

Most franchises are already locked up for years to come. Resident Evil 6 or Final Fantasy XIV won't be seen until next-gen.

Good luck Wii.

Im sure CAPCOM and SE will find a way to prove you wrong.
 

birdchili

Member
norinrad21 said:
So now we are strange for buying Z&W, REC,RE4,NMH and soon PES WII in droves but refusing to buy something that looks like an insult? :lol
i mention it merely as an example of a very popular japanese genre that, in spite of no competition at all, had a massive bomb with an apparently decent game. i'm not sure why it looks like an insult - it looks pretty imaginative to me, though i understand the art turns a lot of people off. some high profile rpg devs worked on it.

i just don't think that there's an understanding of who owns these things yet, and what they're willing to buy.
 

fresquito

Member
What this thread doesn't take into consideration is what can well be one of the main driving reasons why games are greenlighted here or there: perception.

You just need one or two big hardcore hits to get a cue of other hardcore titles hitting the market. It's a question of when these hits will come and in which form. You see, GH3 is a big success, now just tell me how many music games have been announced for the Wii ever since.

Besides, one of the other consoles will be seen as the underdog, and eliminated from many equations. It's always been like this, and I don't expect it to change by now.
 
It probably has something to do with the Wii hardware limitation as well. Do you think Capcom or other companies really want to big hit title like RE5, DMC4, MGS4 on a console that is just slightly better than PS2?
 

borghe

Loves the Greater Toronto Area
The bottom line is that Nintendo essentially did two things:

1. Made one of the most innovative console moves since the creation of home video game consoles

2. Made a console almost exclusively for where THEY wanted to go and not where the industry wanted to go.

I love the Wii. For me personally it is my favorite out of all three consoles. But in this day and age in the industry, and it is safe to say this after almost 1.5 years, the industry doesn't want to be forced to change. They want GTAIV to largely be like GTAIII. They want Halo3 to largely be like Halo2. And they want Rockin' High Profile Shooter Title to be like Halo3 as well. This is what sells, this is what makes money. The DS succeeded in its quirkiness because at the end of it it was still the only viable handheld (before PSP started to take hold finally). With Wii, the PS3 and 360 are still viable.

I never understood the logic. It's cheaper to develop for the Wii. In the next few months it will have the largest userbase in every territory. You would think it prints money. But the bottom line is that developers DO NOT WANT to try and figure it out. They don't want to take risks on what game mechanics will and won't work on it. They don't want to take risks on what genres will sell on it. They don't want to figure out ways to move assets down to it.

The more I think about it, the more I realize that the Wii was too much at one time. It was essentially like going from the Atari joystick to the modern day controller for most developers. They were used to one stick and a button, and Nintendo gave them two analog sticks, a dpad, 6 face buttons, 4 should buttons and rumble. Everyone thought the developers would be like "Thank you nintendo! Finally someone gave us the tools we need!" Instead developers said "Umm.... fuck that. It's cool, but we're really not going to try and figure out what to do with that."

And why? Because companies like EA, Activision, Take-Two, and Square have built their vast fortunes on releasing new versions of game engines with very little changing in the way of user interaction and play mechanics.

The Wii will end the generation a success, probably the winner, and a great machine. I'm definitely not worried. But it won't be on the backs of Final Fantasy, Madden, GTA, or Tony Hawk. The Wii will succeed because of titles like Zack and Wiki, Trauma Center, No More Heroes, PES 2008, Nintendo published titles, WiiWare, VC, etc.

And that will really be the odd thing about this generation, and far away the most alienating to many hardcore gamers. That for the first time EVER in the industry, the lead console WON'T have the monstrous 3rd party titles on it. That Square and others WON'T be shifting primary support to the hardware leader. This really has to be a scary time for them.... because in this situation it is ripe for a NEW Square, Enix, Take-Two, Activision, etc to rise up on Wii and become a major player the same way those companies did in the past. (I left out EA because they ALWAYS have their hands in everything. Who knows, it could be them?)

People have been right from the start. The Wii is 75% expansion of the industry, 25% serving the existing masses with the classics. If that expansions becomes larger than the hardcore base that currently drives the industry, we could be in for some seriously strange times.
 

theBishop

Banned
The HD-console (exclusive or not) games coming out of Japan have been far more compelling IMO than the Wii games I've seen.

The evidence for the notion that hardware sales equal exclusive 3rd party support hasn't been very compelling so far.

but really, all this sales talk is incredibly interesting...
 

fresquito

Member
virtuafightermaster said:
It probably has something to do with the Wii hardware limitation as well. Do you think Capcom or other companies really want to big hit title like RE5, DMC4, MGS4 on a console that is just slightly better than PS2?
If they can sell twice as many copies, sure they want. The question is, can they sell twice or significantly more copies? One would think they can.
 

madara

Member
FPS fans and uncanny valley polygons am cry but us jrpg players are crying as well so far. Even platformers at this point so...
 

Neo C.

Member
PantherLotus said:
Why the Wii will not be getting Western exclusives for the entire generation:

NPD-NEXTGEN-LEAD-0208.jpg


I believe that Western devs in general will be viewing the 360 and the PS3 as the same console and will be treating their audience as one, which is what this last chart shows.


Major assumptions
[ ] That Western devs really do believe that the PS3 and 360 are the same exact audience and that developing games for them as one (or porting from one to the other) does not incur a significant enough cost to impact their development.
In terms of multiplatform: yes. But in terms of exclusives I suggest the publisher decides by budget and audience. That said, big budget western games are still more likely for 360. It could change if the Wii is distant first.
 
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