• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Avatar sequels begin shooting this Monday 25th September

HStallion

Now what's the next step in your master plan?
They don't do 3D on broadcast or cable television. It would have never worked.

It wouldn't have had to been 3D. Just make it a normal animated show about the Navi, their planet and their continued fight against the humans. It seems like such an obvious idea and even more in hind sight if it went after the Avatar the Last Airbender crowd or those kinds of shows that interest both kids and adults.
 

Surfinn

Member
At the very least 2 Billion, because 1B might come from China alone, if it doesn't quite get there, it won't be that far away. So, even 2B could be a large underestimation at this point.

Avatar is strong

But not that strong.

It grossed 200M in China. A sequel is not doing 5x that performance
 

HStallion

Now what's the next step in your master plan?
They should cast Arnold as the end game villain if they want to salvage this. Just give him a ton of great hammy dialogue and tell him to play it up to 11. I don't even care if half his lines are cheesy call backs, make it fun and let Arnold run with it and I'm down.
 

Z3M0G

Member
I thought they started filming these like 10 years ago. When are these expected to release?

RVGLjmN.png

.
 

Anth0ny

Member
the chinese box office is very different now than it was when the original avatar came out

no one wants an avatar sequel, not even china. this shit ain't doing a billion worldwide, let alone in china.

nice to hear it's finally started filming, though. took them fucking long enough.
 

Surfinn

Member
I'm not saying it's gonna gross one billion.

But Avatar 2 being the highest grossing movie ever in China isn't far fetched.

Sorry if I'm reading this wrong but..

It looks like Avatar is top 17 of all time in China. In order to be the highest grossing film there EVER, it would have to hit a multiplier of OVER FOUR TIMES what Avatar grossed.

If that's correct, there's no fucking way that's happening (1.3B Avatar vs 5.6B Wolf Warriors 2).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_China

Am I doing it wrong
 
So Cameron's going to film all three sequels back to back? What if wants to change some scenes or something? Madman!

I guess? I genuinely wonder if the same interest for Avatar remains. It certainly hasn't had the same staying power of a Star Wars, or even Titanic.

It's Cameron, I wouldn't exactly doubt him at this point.

Sorry if I'm reading this wrong but..

It looks like Avatar is top 17 of all time in China. In order to be the highest grossing film there EVER, it would have to hit a multiplier of OVER FOUR TIMES what Avatar grossed.

If that's correct, there's no fucking way that's happening (1.3B Avatar vs 5.6B Wolf Warriors 2).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_China

Am I doing it wrong

Nope. You're not wrong. Avatar has to make a LOT of money in order to be the highest grossing film in China.
 

Anth0ny

Member
Sorry if I'm reading this wrong but..

It looks like Avatar is top 17 of all time in China. In order to be the highest grossing film there EVER, it would have to hit a multiplier of OVER FOUR TIMES what Avatar grossed.

If that's correct, there's no fucking way that's happening (1.3B Avatar vs 5.6B Wolf Warriors 2).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_China

Am I doing it wrong

the idea is that avatar did in 2009 what no other film even came close to doing in china

so now in 2020, with the chinese box office being way stronger than it was in 2009, doing 4x better is a possibility

but I personally don't think audiences want or care about more avatar, chinese or otherwise.
 

jett

D-Member
Sorry if I'm reading this wrong but..

It looks like Avatar is top 17 of all time in China. In order to be the highest grossing film there EVER, it would have to hit a multiplier of OVER FOUR TIMES what Avatar grossed.

If that's correct, there's no fucking way that's happening (1.3B Avatar vs 5.6B Wolf Warriors 2).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_China

Am I doing it wrong

the idea is that avatar did in 2009 what no other film even came close to doing in china

so now in 2020, with the chinese box office being way stronger than it was in 2009, doing 4x better is a possibility

This is what I'm saying. The Chinese box office is HUGE now compared to 2009. Thousands of movie theaters open every year. Eight thousand screens were added in 2015. Also, Avatar did what it did despite the Chinese government kicking it out of 2D screens after only two weeks in (to promote their own propaganda movie, which resulted in audiences boycotting it).

edit:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cinema_of_China

In 2009, there were somewhere between 4,700 and 6,300 screens in China. Now there are over 40,000.
 

Surfinn

Member
This is what I'm saying. The Chinese box office is HUGE now compared to 2009. Thousands of movie theaters open every year. Eight thousand screens were added in 2015. Also, Avatar did what it did despite the Chinese government kicking it out of 2D screens after only two weeks in (to promote their own propaganda movie, which resulted in audiences boycotting it).

edit:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cinema_of_China

In 2009, there were somewhere between 4,700 and 6,300 screens in China. Now there are over 40,000.

That's an interesting statistic, on the theaters. But I'm still failing to see how an Avatar SEQUEL is breaking 4x.

But hey, 2.7B was bullshit before Avatar sooo
 

a916

Member
I don't think he'll hit the highs of Avatar in box office... but there's no way I'd bet against James Cameron either...
 

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Avatar is strong

But not that strong.

It grossed 200M in China. A sequel is not doing 5x that performance

Chinese movie market is VASTLY expanded since the first movie. They will jam a random Chinese girl in at the start a-la Skull Island and make bank.
 

Surfinn

Member
Chinese movie market is VASTLY expanded since the first movie. They will jam a random Chinese girl in at the start a-la Skull Island and make bank.

I think no one doubts that Avatar 2-5 will make bank.

But there's a difference between making bank and going from 200M to 1B with Avatar 2.

800M swing?
 

NCSOFT

Member
Avatar is strong

But not that strong.

It grossed 200M in China. A sequel is not doing 5x that performance

Okay, here are some of the basics of how Chinese market changed over the past few years that people need to know.
The Chinese market as of 2016 is 4.5 times bigger than the market was in 2010 and more than 7.3 times bigger than what it was in 2009. It was often argued that the released of Avatar in 2009-2010 and the 3D wave that came right after that is directly responsible for the rapid expansion of the Chinese market now approaching domestic market as the global #1 status. Avatar was big everywhere, but it holds a special place especially in China because of this. Avatar was one of the biggest cinematic event in modern China, when it was released, it tripled the gross of previous highest grossing film of all time (which was interestingly held by "2012" at the time), this would be comparable to a film coming out in north america tripling the gross of The Force Awakens, an unimaginable task. Avatar also accounted for about 13.5% of the total yearly movie gross of 2010 in China. One of the top three highest % on record (after "Hero" and "Titanic"). Avatar's status as the highest grossing film ever in China was not surpassed until 2014, when Transformers 4 came out, but of course, the market several magnitude bigger in 2014 compared to when Avatar was released.

If you want to get a feel of how big Avatar was in China, look at this list of highest grossing films of all time in China.
Pay specific attention to what year Avatar was released and what year literally every other film on that list is released, you'll realize how big the market is now compare to 2009 and how much of a big deal Avatar was at the time to still rank #17 after all these years.
I can't say with certainty that Avatar 2 will make 1B in China. The current record holder for the highest grossing film in China is Wolf warrior 2 (2017), which made $861M in China alone, the market is still expanding at a fairly good pace, if a movie released today can be this close to 1B, a movie released in 2021 in China can surely get there, question is whether Avatar 2 can be that film, we'll just have to see. It certainly has the pedigree and anticipation to be that big of a hit. What pedigree am I talking about? A James Cameron film achieved highest grossing film ever in China three times (True Lies in 1994, Titanic in 1997-1998 and Avatar in 2010)

Furious 7 (a film significantly smaller than Avatar) made $400M in China in 2014 when Furious 6 only made $66M, so yes, a sequel can jump that much in box office in China, that's a completely different and wildly unstable market.
 

NCSOFT

Member
the chinese box office is very different now than it was when the original avatar came out

no one wants an avatar sequel, not even china. this shit ain't doing a billion worldwide, let alone in china.

nice to hear it's finally started filming, though. took them fucking long enough.

That's laughable, do you have evidence that Chinese people aren't looking forward to Avatar 2? Or are you projecting using your inner circle of people

Chinese people don't want to see any more Star Wars films, that is much closer to the truth, considering A dog's purpose significantly outgrossed Rogue one in China.
 

Skel1ingt0n

I can't *believe* these lazy developers keep making file sizes so damn large. Btw, how does technology work?
Someone feel free to timestamp this.

Assuming Avatar 2 reviews well (80%+ on RT), it will gross nearly $1Bil in China. I'll say at least $800MM.

EDIT: Also assuming we haven't gone to war or something with China between now and then. Who knows these days...
 

Surfinn

Member
Okay, here are some of the basics of how Chinese market changed over the past few years that people need to know.
The Chinese market as of 2016 is 4.5 times bigger than the market was in 2010 and more than 7.3 times bigger than what it was in 2009. It was often argued that the released of Avatar in 2009-2010 and the 3D wave that came right after that is directly responsible for the rapid expansion of the Chinese market now approaching domestic market as the global #1 status. Avatar was big everywhere, but it holds a special place especially in China because of this. Avatar was one of the biggest cinematic event in modern China, when it was released, it tripled the gross of previous highest grossing film of all time (which was interestingly held by "2012" at the time), this would be comparable to a film coming out in north america tripling the gross of The Force Awakens, an unimaginable task. Avatar also accounted for about 13.5% of the total yearly movie gross of 2010 in China. One of the top three highest % on record (after "Hero" and "Titanic"). Avatar's status as the highest grossing film ever in China was not surpassed until 2014, when Transformers 4 came out, but of course, the market several magnitude bigger in 2014 compared to when Avatar was released.

If you want to get a feel of how big Avatar was in China, look at this list of highest grossing films of all time in China.
Pay specific attention to what year Avatar was released and what year literally every other film on that list is released, you'll realize how big the market is now compare to 2009 and how much of a big deal Avatar was at the time to still rank #17 after all these years.
I can't say with certainty that Avatar 2 will make 1B in China. The current record holder for the highest grossing film in China is Wolf warrior 2 (2017), which made $861M in China alone, the market is still expanding at a fairly good pace, if a movie released today can be this close to 1B, a movie released in 2021 in China can surely get there, question is whether Avatar 2 can be that film, we'll just have to see.

Furious 7 (a film significantly smaller than Avatar) made $400M in China in 2014 when Furious 6 only made $66M, so yes, a sequel can jump that much in box office in China, that's a completely different and wildly unstable market.

This is all very interesting and worthwhile info. Thanks for this post. The Fast and Furious comparison is an eye opener

I stand corrected in saying that it CANNOT happen.

Though I feel like the NA/Force Awakens example doesn't really work because the markets are completely different and don't seem comparable.
 
This isn’t going to top the first financially but it’ll do fine and look pretty. We’ll talk about box office worries when we’re four movies in and audiences are ready to burn Animal Kingdom to the ground just to get away from Avatar.
Arnold needs to be in one of these before he leaves us.
Do you know something about Arnold that we don’t?
 

NCSOFT

Member
This is all very interesting and worthwhile info. Thanks for this post. The Fast and Furious comparison an eye opener

I stand corrected in saying that it CANNOT happen.

Though I feel like the NA/Force Awakens example doesn't really work because the markets are completely different and don't seem comparable.

No problem, I love discussing box office, Furious 7 wasn't even that much of an anomaly, huge sequel jumps is normal in a rapidly expanding market, another random example would be Kung Fu Panda 2, which grossed $92M, when the first one did $26M, there are plenty more examples like that.


You're right that the TFA example isn't comparable because NA is a developed and stable market, a movie just don't suddenly come out and tripled the previous record holder's box office. I was using that as an example to illustrate the historical paradigm shift in China box office in 2009-2010.

* June 2009: Transformers 2 grossed $65.8M in China, highest ever (The public: Fascinating! great performance! )
* November 2009: 2012 grossed $68.7M in China, new highest grossing film ever in China! (The public: OMG! what a monster performance, take that Transformers!)
* January 2010: Avatar grossed $200M in China, tripled previous record hold (The public: ...............................................................)
 

NCSOFT

Member
Today I learned Wolf Warrior 2 grossed over $800 million domestic in China.

What in the bloody hell?! Jeezus!

Yep, the release of WW2 in China this year is another historical moment for box office in China not too far from Titanic, Hero and Avatar status.

anth0ny on sudoku watch

Just had to look what that means ^_^.

Someone feel free to timestamp this.

Assuming Avatar 2 reviews well (80%+ on RT), it will gross nearly $1Bil in China. I'll say at least $800MM.

Yeah, pretty much what I think as well.
 

Surfinn

Member
No problem, I love discussing box office, Furious 7 wasn't even that much of an anomaly, huge sequel jumps is normal in a rapidly expanding market, another random example would be Kung Fu Panda 2, which grossed $92M, when the first one did $26M, there are plenty more examples like that.


You're right that the TFA example isn't comparable because NA is a developed and stable market, a movie just don't suddenly come out and tripled the previous record holder's box office. I was using that as an example to illustrate the historical paradigm shift in China box office in 2009-2010.

* June 2009: Transformers 2 grossed $65.8M in China, highest ever (The public: Fascinating! great performance! )
* November 2009: 2012 grossed $68.7M in China, new highest grossing film ever in China! (The public: OMG! what a monster performance, take that Transformers!)
* January 2010: Avatar grossed $200M in China, tripled previous record hold (The public: ...............................................................)

This is why I love these threads. You learn so much. I reached my conclusion a little too quickly here. I forget that 2021 is fucking FOUR YEARS AWAY and the market can grow a LOT in that time.

We got a little kswis 2.0 here. :)
 
Everyone also wanna hazard a guess where all those post-Pandora withdrawal depression stories were coming from? Where they were holding Avatar-themed weddings?

Anybody wanna guess which filmmaker has been striking deals with Chinese production and distributions houses SINCE 2011 or so?

The Avatar sequels are going to murder the Chinese box office.

Whoever said Avatar won't make $1b worldwide is the new PheonixDark.
 
I hope James Cameron does his usual HARD genre shift to avoid sequelitis. I'd really hate Avatar 2 to just be battle for Pandora part 2.
 

NCSOFT

Member
This is why I love these threads. You learn so much. I reached my conclusion a little too quickly here. I forget that 2021 is fucking FOUR YEARS AWAY and the market can grow a LOT in that time.

We got a little kswis 2.0 here. :)

Yeah, the growth is kind of flattening out in China, but we should still see a lot of growth from now to 2021. A $1B film should already have appeared before Avatar 2's release. I can't wait till Dec/2020 to Early/2021, it's gonna be a spectacular time for box office fans.
 
0922-filip-geljo-avatar-2-getty-3.jpg


Teen actor Filip Geljo will make some serious green for playing one of the blue people in "Avatar 2" ... TMZ has learned.

The 15-year-old's set to appear in the next 2 sequels from director James Cameron, and will rake in at least $150,000 for his role, according to his contract. He'll also bank an additional $5k per day for any voice-over work he does ... if there's an 'Avatar' video game.

http://www.tmz.com/2017/09/23/odd-squad-child-actor-filip-geljo-avatar-sequels-contract/

For 150k I'm guessing he's playing Jake's son
 

Surfinn

Member
Sorry if this is mentioned somewhere but..

Are these films going to be designed for 3D like Avatar? Or are they ditching it and using it as more of an add on, like most films?
 
Sorry if this is mentioned somewhere but..

Are these films going to be designed for 3D like Avatar? Or are they ditching it and using it as more of an add on, like most films?

Definitely designed for it. He's been talking up doing HFR 3D right for a long time now. I imagine he's going to shooting it in native 3D with his Cameron/Pace Fusion camera again like he did on the first movie.
 
Top Bottom