Father_Brain
Banned
An unspecified DQ title was on the 3DS software list Nintendo released at E3, so make of that what you will.Yoshi said:
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Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2010 (Dec 20 - Dec 26)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Die Squirrel Die
Member
Man God said:
Isn't it a hugely optimistic assumption that going multiplatform would increase sales of the series overall? All they could end up doing is splitting the userbase across 2 platforms without making any significant gains overall in total sales.
Nintendo has quite an advantage over Sony when it comes to the moneyhat game. Nintendo has shown with both Dragon Quest IX and Monster Hunter 3-Tri that they're willing to throw a lot of support behind third party titles in Europe and the US. With the US market shrinking that might be better at the bargaining table. I do see mountains of gold for Square Enix and Capcom in the future if MS joins in for some exclusive deals as well.Chris1964 said:
In reality those exclusive deals aren't going to hold up it in the end because Capcom is always like: "Oooh shiny new hardware, gotta port on that too!".
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Father_Brain said:
Here's to hoping it's Rocket Slime.
perfectchaos007
Member
faridmon said:
It's cool faridmon, you can eat crow with me if we're wrong, but I still think theres no way DS can top PSP this year. My logic is that the DS only outsold the PSP by 8,000 units this week which was the week before Christmas so I highly doubt that the DS can outsell the PSP by 27,000+ units in the week AFTER Christmas to win 2010. I tried to even do a self banning if I was wrong but was denied. Maybe I'll put a DSi over Ron Paul's head for a week if the DS does top the PSP for 2010
Cool, another week for the heated battle to continue its fury with its blazey fightChris1964 said:
God, that was cheesy and utter rubbish
Eating Crow with you? Mate I predicted that the DS would go on top, so its either me and you :lolperfectchaos007 said:
Also, don't worry, maybe you'll buy me a DSi XL if you lose? that is a good subsitute for the whole ban bet, i suppose...
I regret buying a DSi, Fuck the XL looks sexy 
FWIW, ASCII's official story seems to say that PSP is the biggest seller.
http://ascii.jp/elem/000/000/579/579694/
http://ascii.jp/elem/000/000/579/579694/
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=25120371&postcount=280Grimmy said:
Dengeki follows Famitsu. There is one more week for YTD results.
perfectchaos007
Member
faridmon said:Cool, another week for the heated battle to continue its fury with its blazey fight
God, that was cheesy and utter rubbish
Eating Crow with you? Mate I predicted that the DS would go on top, so its either me and you :lol
Also, don't worry, maybe you'll buy me a DSi XL if you lose? that is a good subsitute for the whole ban bet, i suppose...
I regret buying a DSi, Fuck the XL looks sexy
I already own a PSP 3000, and a DSiXL so I'm good in that department
kame-sennin
Member
donny2112 said:
Sep 08: Wii 687.0K
Sep 09: Wii 462.8K
Oct 08: Wii 803K
Oct 09: Wii 506.9K
You're right that the price drop got the Wii to sell at PS2 levels, but it didn't fix the problem that the Wii was facing when compared to the previous year. The Wii had massive sales for the first three years of its life due to Wii Sports and then Wii Fit/Mario Kart. Those were the games that drove momentum through Christmas of 2008 and lead to sold out stores. Animal Crossing and Wii Music killed that momentum which is what lead to "slumping" sales in 2009. When the price cut came along, it was unable to completely reverse the situation. Obviously, price wasn't the problem. It wasn't until after NSMBW released that the Wii started selling at a level consistent with its past. It's not just about a lifting of supply constraint. The Wii was trending downward, analysts (lol analysts ect) were predicting gloom and doom for the system, and then things turned around. It was a specific change in direction. We can not attribute that to a price cut that was shown to have a minimal effect three months prior or a lack of supply constraints that were alleviated before that.
Let's also remember what we mean when we say "the price cut improved sales". People are not buying a cheaper console because they want to own the plastic case. People only buy video game hardware in order to play the games*. The hardware, generally, serves no other purpose. So when price cuts do improve sales, it is only because there is a group of customers who want to buy the games, but did not want those games badly enough to pay the full console price.
So the only options here are:
1) The shocking Dec 09 sales were driven primarily by Wii Sports/Wii Fit/Mario Kart customers who felt $250 was too much for said software.
2) The shocking Dec 09 sales were driven primarily by customers who wanted NSMBW.
Ultimately, I feel that only software can explain phenomenal console sales. If you reject that (and I'm not saying you are) than you are essentially arguing that people value the plastic box itself. So the question is, did the Wii have a record smashing Christmas in 2009 because of games that came out pre-summer of 2008, or because the biggest franchise in video game history landed on the platform the month before?
Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and Mario Kart are tremendous games that drove the Wii to amazing heights of success. But it seems clear to me that their hardware selling power was beginning to slow by 2009 (exacerbated by a lackluster Christmas 08 software offering) and NSMBW reinvigorated the system.
donny2112 said:
Both of our arguments are hinging on correlation, and I would never deny that. Without some kind of polling data, we're not going to know what caused people to walk into stores and buy Wii's last December. The NSMBW > Dec sales correlation is much closer and more direct than the price cut, however.
*I know this is changing in the modern era of the set-top box and DVD/Blu-ray ect. But this has been historically true and certainly true for the Wii pre-Netflix.
gofreak said:
Thats a good point, perhaps they could just assure that PSP2 gets a version of the game. As long as its at least multiplat, I still see the PSP version moving many more units than the 3ds version regardless of the install bases at that time. Plus Sony has the history of bundles and stuff as well as special promo decal consoles for large third party releases. I think that's the kind of thing that could sway the favor towards them, Nintendo has done MUCH less of that. Seems to me that it would be a win for Sony as long as the game ISN'T exclusive to 3DS, which I don't see happening.
I'm guessing your thoughts didn't quite come out clearly in your response, because there's no way that losing Monster Hunter Portable exclusivity could be considered a "win" for Sony.Cipherr said:
Bundles are irrelevant. Nintendo did a MHTri bundle with the Wii, and I'm sure they wouldn't hesitate at all to release another bundle for the 3DS, if given the opportunity.
If it ends up being a multi-platform release, then the distinguishing differences will likely be playing the game in "3D" on the 3DS, or playing with dual-analogue and spiffier graphics on the PSP2. I'm not exactly sure which version would be more appealing to the majority. Would make for an interesting experiment.
test_account
XP-39C²
Interesting question, would Capcom make more money on the next MH game (most likely MHP3G) if they made it for the 3DS instead of on the PSP? A lot of the assets are already made for the PSP, wouldnt it be cheaper to develope it for the PSP? I am then thinking about exclutivity hence the "jump to the 3DS" comment.antonz said:
ShockingAlberto
Member
I suppose it would also depend on price (not just the consoles, though that's important, but also the game prices) and which systems your friends have.Dalthien said:
test_account said:
Its an interesting situation. Im sure they could develop another PSP game and rake in the cash but do they want to stay in a prior generation hardware wise. I would imagine they want to keep up with the new devices. I would have to imagine Iwata has put the feelers out heavily since MH3 for a MH on the 3DS.
The 3DS has the ability from what is being shown to take Wii games fairly well so in that sense the assets are already made from MH3 to make the jump to 3DS.
test_account
XP-39C²
That is a good point, about moving on to newer hardware. If MHP3G comes out in about 1 year, i think that it wont be that necessary to move it to another system than the PSP (i assume that the PSP is still quite popular in 1 year at least). But with MHP4 that might come out in like 2-3 years from now. At this time newer system are out on the market and maybe then the PSP arent the best suited platform anymore indeed.antonz said:
kame-sennin said:
3) The shocking Dec 09 sales were due to the biggest sales month of the year finally having the most sought after in previous years device finally in stock. (+ a price drop) (+ desirable software, of which NSMB Wii was an important one, along with Wii Fit/Plus and Wii Sports)
Did you go back and do the exercise I suggested? U.S. is a very different market than Japan when it comes to hardware impacts due to specific software titles.
Edit:
Looking further...
October 2009 was the highest October on record for a home console (excluding Wii's previous year sales which cannot be considered since the system sold what it shipped. Period.) was PS2's sales in October 2002, the year of its first price cut. It was also PS2's best year. That November 2002 sales for PS2 were 1.28m. The top software was Vice City at 1.45m. You may try to make a case that the PS2's sales were propelled due to Vice City, and you'd at least be somewhat correct. Strong selling software does help hardware sales. However, Vice City also sold 1.41m in the last week of October that year, when it sold 517K. Therefore, it is obvious that sales go up in November from October as a matter of course. This can be strongly helped by being a popular system with an appealing lineup, but sales would still go up.
Now Vice City sold 1.58m in December of that year, not outstandingly higher than it sold in November. Therefore, if PS2 sales were primarily driven by the software, we'd expect a result ~125% of November's sales (due to the extra week). Sales were actually 2.7m for PS2 that December (the previous home console record before the Wii). Where'd the extra sales come from? Obviously it's the fact that its December. December is far and away the biggest selling month of the year in the U.S. (and worldwide, for that matter). Gift giving is big.
Now the price drop for PS2 was > 6 months prior, but this was the first December that had happened at that price. We know from experience that December is a different month than all the others when it comes to sales. More sales are concentrated there than any other month. Therefore, it makes sense that many people, even though the price had been lower for > 6 months prior, would only have been considering a purchase of a PS2 at that point of the year and not elsewhere. PS2 hadn't had hardware shortages the year before, so it was not its first December being shortage-free. It would later have a December (in 2004*) with San Andreas that was selling even more than Vice City was from October to December. But 2002 was its by far best-selling December.
Was it supported by strong software? Certainly.
Was it the strong software that alone spurred it to such great heights? Certainly not, or we would've seen repeat performances.
My opinion of December 2009's Wii sales follow this order of importance.
1) First shortage-free December. (As shown above, there are a lot of people who only really look to buy a console at this time of year.)
2) Price drop that year. (As shown above, a price drop, even months earlier, can still have an impact in December due to those people who only look to buy a console at that time.)
3) Software lineup. (No matter what your price (looking at you GameCube), you can't have record-breaking Decembers without the software to back it up. Wii had this software long before NSMB Wii (e.g. Wii Sports, Wii Fit), but NSMB Wii certainly helped take it to another level.)
As far as relative importance, it'd be like 1 >>> 2 > 3. First shortage-free December was the real kicker. Price drop helped. Wal-Mart sale helped (though NPD not directly tracking Wal-Mart makes me suspicious, but Pachter would probably know more about that than me, and he kept bringing it up.). Software was the basis that had made the system a sell-out 2.5 years after launch, so that was obviously there and helping, too.
I don't like that you keep trying to ignore December's impact. I have no problem saying that NSMB Wii (along with the rest of the lineup) was a big help, but saying that it was primarily NSMB Wii (ignoring December and the rest of the lineup) seems very, very wrong to me.
* 2004 was the PS2 shortage period as they switched to the PS2 Slim, so its sales need to be considered in that light. However based on the December's around that, it seems reasonable to hold that 2004 wouldn't have outsold 2002's December.
RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
cvxfreak said:
At this point I think it depends on how much money Sony is willing to send their way to keep it exclusive to Sony portable systems.
AdventureRacing
Member
RurouniZel said:
It would have to be a shitload of money. If capcom release a MH on the 3DS it is likely to sell millions of copies and that is a lot of money for sony to cough up.
Capcom also have to think about the future of the series. If the 3DS is going to be the next big thing (which it is clear capcom thinks it will) then they want to get on board as early as possible to reap the benefits later.
Taking a moneyhat from sony only helps in the short term. Long term the important thing for capcom is that they continue to grow the franchise.
At this point i think it is damn near guaranteed that we will see MH coming to the 3DS.
Don't think that it'll necessary stay on the PSP..
One issue is porting, many DS games this generation can't be easily ported onto PSP because of dual-screen and touch. Same thing will happen with 3DS and PSP2.. development decisions are going to be more locked IMO, or game design will just be blander.
One issue is porting, many DS games this generation can't be easily ported onto PSP because of dual-screen and touch. Same thing will happen with 3DS and PSP2.. development decisions are going to be more locked IMO, or game design will just be blander.
Takao said:
Well as far as consoles go the game has never been a big seller. The Wii has the most successful console version in the series so I think there is no issue there.
Now as for handhelds I think people need to really pull back expectations. Both systems have recieved similar hype as far as graphical power with claims of HD twins like graphics etc.
Shane Bettenhausen has said before that the 3DS and PSP2 share mostly the same capabilities. If anything the PSP2 will likely just do things in a higher resolution as its way to differ itself but the games will be mostly the same
Sir_Crocodile
Member
NSMB hitting 6 million is great.
rah rah platforming
rah rah platforming
FINALFANTASYDOG
Member
Chris1964 said:
Sorry my english is poor but here's a rough translation:
Q: What type of year will 2010 be?
A: It's shaping up to be a year of continuing the challenge of Growing(spreading) MHP3.
Also 3ds is coming out, the time is coming for hardware change. New hardware activities the market and will probably turn this year into a watershed year.
2011 biggest's goal is MHP3. we want to create, even more so then 2g, places for users to contact, and will keep out putting information relating to MPH3.