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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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Kosmo

Banned
You do not understand the monetary system. You also do not understand what inflation is. You also do not understand how inflation is caused or how it is controlled. You also do not understand that the monetary system fundamentally changed in 1971 (the US voluntarily defaulted and created a new currency). It is also not true that "we've run that experiment." It is also not true that I think the government "should just print money." It is true that I think the US government can and should spend more money, and that it does need to collect dollars from citizens to accomplish that.

We are not on the gold standard or any other convertibility standard, but your positions are based on the assumption that we are. In this way, you are much closer to Ron Paul than you might think. All of your policy analysis flows from a failure to grasp the implications of the switch in the monetary system that occurred in 1971. If you ever wondered why Libertarians sneer at fiat money, it is because it democraticizes money and places it fully within the control of the public (as opposed to pegged to some commodity over which they have no real collective control). Fiat money creates policy options that do not otherwise exist, including freedom from taxation for the purpose of raising revenue. (Taxation is necessary for other reasons, just not to finance the government's spending.)

For a (very) brief spell in 1945, the US had a fiat monetary system also. This was after the gold standard had broken down but before the Bretton Woods agreement that re-restablished currency convertibility and fixed exchange rates. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at that time (Beardsley Ruml) gave a speech to the American Bar Association during this period entitled "Taxes for Revenue are Obsolete." And in that speech, he said:

The necessity for a government to tax in order to maintain both its independence and its solvency is true for state and local governments, but it is not true for a national government. ...

Final freedom from the domestic money market exists for every sovereign national state where there exists an institution which functions in the manner of a modern central bank, and whose currency is not convertible into gold or into some other commodity.

The United States is a national state which has a central banking system, the Federal Reserve System, and whose currency, for domestic purposes, is not convertible into any commodity. It follows that our Federal Government has final freedom from the money market in meeting its financial requirements. Accordingly, the inevitable social and economic consequences of any and all taxes have now become the prime consideration in the imposition of taxes. In general, it may be said that since all taxes have consequences of a social and economic character, the government should look to these consequences in formulating its tax policy. All federal taxes must meet the test of public policy and practical effect. The public purpose which is served should never be obscured in a tax program under the mask of raising revenue.

http://www.constitution.org/tax/us-ic/cmt/ruml_obsolete.pdf

Let that sink in a bit in relation to the NPR article and what Simon Johnson was asserting. It may well be the case that spending more in aggregate on social security will result in a need to raise taxes (although I seriously doubt it), but that will not be because the government needs revenue. It will be because it is necessary to reduce aggregate demand and the prospect of inflation. From an MMT perspective, the need to raise taxes to reduce aggregate demand is a good thing, because it means the economy is full steam ahead.

EV, what of this notion to "pay off our debt":

Simply mint some $500B coins and "payoff" the debt. They would effectively be unusable as currency, but would they not satisfy the debt?
 
You do not understand the monetary system. You also do not understand what inflation is. You also do not understand how inflation is caused or how it is controlled. You also do not understand that the monetary system fundamentally changed in 1971 (the US voluntarily defaulted and created a new currency). It is also not true that "we've run that experiment." It is also not true that I think the government "should just print money." It is true that I think the US government can and should spend more money, and that it does need to collect dollars from citizens to accomplish that.

That's one theory, its not the gospel. And a lot of people disagree with that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chartalism#Criticism
 
EV, what of this notion to "pay off our debt":

Simply mint some $500B coins and "payoff" the debt. They would effectively be unusable as currency, but would they not satisfy the debt?

Of course it would pay off the "debt" (promises to pay people in the future), and it likely wouldn't be nearly as inflationary as you think. Why? Because it's basically an asset swap (money for bonds). But the asset swap is with people who were currently saving (not spending) that money, meaning that is money that is not contributing to aggregate demand. If people receiving the asset swap continue to save (rather than spend), then you will not see inflation, because inflation occurs when too much money is trying to be spent on too few goods. Consider that bonds, themselves, are highly liquid. If a person with bonds decides to change his/her behavior from saving to buying, it is very easy for that person to do so. So a swap of money for bonds is not nearly as big a deal as one might think. (Also never mind that the government itself is the beneficiary of much of the government's promised obligations to spend, meaning a good chunk of those promises are entirely illusory.)

Your assertion that 500B in money created by the government would be unusable isn't supported by an argument of any kind. And the government need not mint the money. It can just use a few keystrokes to change bank accounts. Most money is now entirely abstract, represented in pixel form, not actual cash. We now account for money, like a scoreboard operator accounts for points scored during a sporting match. We don't really physically create it or physically use it, at least not very much.

Note that when you characterize the debt as a promise to pay people in the future (which is all it is), then you can see the social security program itself as debt that is indistinguishable from bonds only in to whom the promises were made. Social security is promises made to pay elderly people to be secure in their old age. Bonds are promises to pay a much narrower class of on average wealthier people. So if it comes down to the "debt" or "social security," guess which one I would choose.
 

ToxicAdam

Member
I guess America's 'too big to fail' in EV's eyes.

It will be a motherfucker when the entire world collectively turns their back on your currency when you start "keystroking" away it's perceived value. Pretty dangerous game of chicken that no one in Washington would ever sign off on.
 
Dat Austerity

Britain's economy slid into its second recession since the financial crisis after official data unexpectedly showed a fall in output in the first three months of 2012, piling pressure on Prime Minister David Cameron's embattled coalition government.

The Office for National Statistics said Britain's gross domestic product fell 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2012 after contracting by 0.3 percent at the end of 2011, confounding forecasts for 0.1 percent growth.

Most economists had expected Britain's $2.4 trillion economy to eke out modest growth in the early 2012, but these forecasts were upset by the biggest fall in construction output in three years coupled with anaemic service sector growth and a fall in industrial output.

Wednesday's figures will be a deep blow for Britain's Conservative / Liberal Democrat coalition, which has slid in opinion polls since a poorly received annual budget statement in March and risks embarrassment at local elections on May 3.

The government is also under pressure over revelations about its close relationship with media tycoon Rupert Murdoch.

The government desperately needs growth to achieve its overriding goal of eliminating Britain's large budget deficit over the next five years.

Britain's economy contracted by 7.1 percent during its 2008-2009 recession and recovery since has been slow, with headwinds from the euro zone debt crisis, government spending cuts, high inflation and a damaged banking sector.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47169446

If only we could follow their lead with the Paul Ryan's Path to Prosperity*.

*
Prosperity not guaranteed for all citizens.
 
You do not understand the monetary system. You also do not understand what inflation is. You also do not understand how inflation is caused or how it is controlled. You also do not understand that the monetary system fundamentally changed in 1971 (the US voluntarily defaulted and created a new currency).
Yeah . . . me and most economists are just all a bunch of idiots.

Just because someone exposes a theory that you like, that doesn't mean it is true or it works.

It is also not true that I think the government "should just print money." It is true that I think the US government can and should spend more money, and that it does need to collect dollars from citizens to accomplish that.
Those statements contradict each other (as long as you are not being a goofball and taking them completely literally . . . "print money" = spend money that did not exist before.)

We are not on the gold standard or any other convertibility standard, but your positions are based on the assumption that we are. In this way, you are much closer to Ron Paul than you might think. All of your policy analysis flows from a failure to grasp the implications of the switch in the monetary system that occurred in 1971. If you ever wondered why Libertarians sneer at fiat money, it is because it democraticizes money and places it fully within the control of the public (as opposed to pegged to some commodity over which they have no real collective control). Fiat money creates policy options that do not otherwise exist, including freedom from taxation for the purpose of raising revenue.
They like the gold standard because it prevents anyone from screwing up the money system since you can't print gold. With Fiat money, you can. And that is fine as long as it is done judiciously. But you can't just print million dollars bills, give them to every citizen, and expect us all to be suddenly wealthy.
 
I guess America's 'too big to fail' in EV's eyes.

Most definitely. That's the prime benefit of sovereignty.

It will be a motherfucker when the entire world collectively turns their back on your currency when you start "keystroking" away it's perceived value. Pretty dangerous game of chicken that no one in Washington would ever sign off on.

Well, that's not really what happens. First, because spending money increases aggregate demand, the economy picks up steam (which actually has the effect of reducing the "deficit," kind of like how cutting spending in a recession increases the "deficit"). Second, because the dollar floats, its devaluation has a floor as American goods and services become more attractive to the rest of the world. This is why currency being allowed to float on an exchange is a central tenet of MMT. Without this facet of currency, MMT does not hold, and it is part and parcel of what a "modern monetary" system is.
 
WASHINGTON -- Once thought to be solidly behind President Barack Obama, younger voters burdened by a bleak employment picture, high gas prices and student loan debt are being aggressively wooed by the Democrat and his likely Republican challenger, Mitt Romney.

In 2008, Obama had a 34-point advantage over Republican Sen. John McCain among voters under age 30. He won about two-thirds of the vote in that age group.

But a new Harvard poll suggests the president may face a harder sales job with younger voters this time around. Obama led Romney by 12 points among those ages 18-24, according to the survey. Among those in the 25-29 age group, Obama held a 23-point advantage.

It's an opening Republicans hope to exploit by focusing on young people's disillusionment with the candidate who promised "hope" and "change."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/25/obama-young-voters_n_1451667.html

But the unemployment rate among young people doesn't matter remember
 
Yeah . . . me and most economists are just all a bunch of idiots.

http://heteconomist.com/?p=5175

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7uJIjSO-a4&feature=player_embedded

Just because someone exposes a theory that you like, that doesn't mean it is true or it works.

You mean a man who, at the time he made the remarks addressed to the foremost legal association in America, was the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York? I agree that title doesn't make him correct. It ought, at least, suggest those naysaying or downright ignoring MMT might want to pay some attention and look into it when the government's central bank has expressly said (to a sophisticated audience) that taxation's purpose is not to raise revenue for the government. This isn't an outside economist saying this. It is somebody who, at the time, handled the government's accounts.

Those statements contradict each other (as long as you are not being a goofball and taking them completely literally . . . "print money" = spend money that did not exist before.)

How are they contradictory? I don't believe that the US "should just print money," even if printing money = spending money. That's a ridiculous simplification. I do, however, believe the US government can and should spend more money, and that it does not need to collect dollars from citizens in order to accomplish that. (It does, however, need to tax money for other reasons).

But you can't just print million dollars bills, give them to every citizen, and expect us all to be suddenly wealthy.

I don't know who you are addressing with this argument.
 

mckmas8808

Banned
Dat Austerity



If only we could follow their lead with the Paul Ryan's Path to Prosperity*.

*
Prosperity not guaranteed for all citizens.


So will the American media talk about this and state that auserity during a slow recovery is not a good idea?

And more importantly will politicians in Washington? Including Obama!
 
Please tell me you don't believe this is what EV is saying or advocating or that MMTs say or advocate this, because it's completely ridiculous.
Well, I have yet to be explained the difference.

Yes. Minority alternate schools of thought exist. So what? That proves nothing.

You mean a man who, at the time he made the remarks addressed to the foremost legal association in America, was the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York? I agree that title doesn't make him correct. It ought, at least, suggest those naysaying or downright ignoring MMT might want to pay some attention and look into it when the government's central bank has expressly said (to a sophisticated audience) that taxation's purpose is not to raise revenue for the government. This isn't an outside economist saying this. It is somebody who, at the time, handled the government's accounts.
And there are climate scientists that still deny climate change. So what?

Look . . . we DO print money. The Federal reserve does it. But we try to do it judiciously. You seem to advocate handing that power over to the federal government so they can just spend away. I think that is a bad idea as do most economists. Good luck pushing the alternate view.

How are they contradictory? I don't believe that the US "should just print money," even if printing money = spending money. That's a ridiculous simplification. I do, however, believe the US government can and should spend more money, and that it does not need to collect dollars from citizens in order to accomplish that. (It does, however, need to tax money for other reasons).
They are contradictory because you say "I don't think the government should print money" . . . but they should actions that are equivalent of just printing money except that instead of literally printing the money & handing it out, we just conjure up digits in bank accounts.

Please explain how what you are advocating is any different. I have yet to see the difference. Anyone else see the difference?

And as I point out above . . . we already do this. We just do it through the Fed buying government debt. We use that debt level as a metric to control how much we will do it.
 
Well, that's not really what happens. First, because spending money increases aggregate demand, the economy picks up steam (which actually has the effect of reducing the "deficit," kind of like how cutting spending in a recession increases the "deficit").
Well, that is the theory anyway. And I think it works sometimes but not other times. I think it worked in the great depression since we were relatively isolated. But I think it doesn't work well today because most of the newly created demand just stimulates foreign economies not the domestic one.

This seems to be far-liberal flip-side to 'cut taxes to zero, infinite revenue!'

Second, because the dollar floats, its devaluation has a floor as American goods and services become more attractive to the rest of the world. This is why currency being allowed to float on an exchange is a central tenet of MMT. Without this facet of currency, MMT does not hold, and it is part and parcel of what a "modern monetary" system is.
EXACTLY. If we inflate our currency like crazy it eventually becomes worthless such that we can't buy imported goods. We all become poor and destitute so that we become willing to work in sweat shops. But is that a good thing?
 

RDreamer

Member
Well, I have yet to be explained the difference.

We've explained it multiple points throughout the thread. We are not arguing that the government can and should create money willy nilly with no thoughts to the consequence, because apparently there are none. That would be nonsense. We are saying that the "consequences" politicians are railing about are fictional, not that there are none at all. We don't have to collect revenue in order to spend. That is a fact, because we create our own money. So, the consequences of spending all willy nilly in this monetary system aren't that we won't have money anymore, they are things like rampant inflation. That is why we don't hand out million dollar bills and why a MMTer would never advocate for it. And the reason that inflation isn't a problem at this time, is because we're in a recession with high unemployment. That means that aggregate demand is at a low. That means we have too few dollars chasing too many goods. Rampant inflation happens with the opposite of that scenario, not when you balance out that scenario. The balancing of that scenario would result in a healthy economy, and the balancing of that scenario should be what we're aiming for.

What EV and MMTers are advocating is that we face up to the reality of our monetary system, and use taxes for their actual purpose. That is, we tax to fix things like income inequality, manage aggregate demand, and to warm up or cool down the economy. We do not tax, however, in order to gain revenue. MMTers are saying that the deficit isn't a thing that exists in order to balance out at some point. The deficit is simply a measurement of the difference between what a government creates and what it destroys in order to do those things I just listed.
 
We've explained it multiple points throughout the thread. We are not arguing that the government can and should create money willy nilly with no thoughts to the consequence, because apparently there are none. That would be nonsense. We are saying that the "consequences" politicians are railing about are fictional, not that there are none at all. We don't have to collect revenue in order to spend. That is a fact, because we create our own money. So, the consequences of spending all willy nilly in this monetary system aren't that we won't have money anymore, they are things like rampant inflation. That is why we don't hand out million dollar bills and why a MMTer would never advocate for it. And the reason that inflation isn't a problem at this time, is because we're in a recession with high unemployment. That means that aggregate demand is at a low. That means we have too few dollars chasing too many goods. Rampant inflation happens with the opposite of that scenario, not when you balance out that scenario. The balancing of that scenario would result in a healthy economy, and the balancing of that scenario should be what we're aiming for.

What EV and MMTers are advocating is that we face up to the reality of our monetary system, and use taxes for their actual purpose. That is, we tax to fix things like income inequality, manage aggregate demand, and to warm up or cool down the economy. We do not tax, however, in order to gain revenue. MMTers are saying that the deficit isn't a thing that exists in order to balance out at some point. The deficit is simply a measurement of the difference between what a government creates and what it destroys in order to do those things I just listed.

Well said. I wouldn't have anything to add to this, and don't think I could have said it better.

The problem with arguments that the government "needs" revenue to spend--besides that it foolishly directs the whole of taxation policy at a completely unnecessary and irrelevant objective--is that it unduly limits important policy options and obscures the political nature of Congress's acts and omissions. It allows representatives to hide behind financial and economic constraints that aren't really there. The only limitations are political and legal, and Congress is responsible for that.
 

Miletius

Member
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/25/obama-young-voters_n_1451667.html

But the unemployment rate among young people doesn't matter remember

I agree that Obama is going to have a hard time counting on younger voters the way he did 4 years ago. However, I don't think that Romney will be able to offer an alternative to young folks, who by and large don't buy the corporations are people, less regulation is good argument as well.

The best he can hope for is to further depress the young turnout, but seeing as how it's not that high to begin with I don't really see what good it accomplishes. It's a question of margins here, and I don't think that putting in that much effort is worth his time. Certainly not "an aggressive push."
 
I agree that Obama is going to have a hard time counting on younger voters the way he did 4 years ago. However, I don't think that Romney will be able to offer an alternative to young folks, who by and large don't buy the corporations are people, less regulation is good argument as well.

The best he can hope for is to further depress the young turnout, but seeing as how it's not that high to begin with I don't really see what good it accomplishes. It's a question of margins here, and I don't think that putting in that much effort is worth his time. Certainly not "an aggressive push."

Compare 2004 to 2008. That's what depressed youth turn out does: lose swing states by thin margins. There is next to no reason for young people to vote in droves this year given their dire economic situation.
 
Compare 2004 to 2008. That's what depressed youth turn out does: lose swing states by thin margins. There is next to no reason for young people to vote in droves this year given their dire economic situation.
Sure there is. A Romney administration is likely to make their long-term prospects worse.

Allow me to be the first to cry voter fraud if AZ goes blue.
 
They don't know that, though. Most 18-29 year olds are driven more by Facebook posts than candidate's actual positions.
Which is why they'll all vote for Ron Paul.

Invisible_Insane said:
Allow me to be the first to cry voter fraud if AZ goes blue.
I'd say it has a reasonable chance to go blue. It wouldn't be the tipping point for an Obama victory, more like icing on the cake - yet I think it's more plausible than say, Texas or Georgia, states which were also targeted by Obama's campaign team early on.

It sounds like they're pushing for a massive voter registration drive. Even if Obama didn't win it, it'd be laying the groundwork for a successful Democratic campaign in the future. Same with Texas, though I highly doubt that's on the table for Obama this year.

The best - plausible - Obama map is probably 2008 + Arizona and Missouri, minus Indiana.
 
Which is why they'll all vote for Ron Paul.


I'd say it has a reasonable chance to go blue. It wouldn't be the tipping point for an Obama victory, more like icing on the cake - yet I think it's more plausible than say, Texas or Georgia, states which were also targeted by Obama's campaign team early on.

It sounds like they're pushing for a massive voter registration drive. Even if Obama didn't win it, it'd be laying the groundwork for a successful Democratic campaign in the future.

I can't find it right now, but there was an article in Time last month about a massive voter registration drive that flipped a local election to democrats thanks to Latino votes. National dems have acquired the guy responsible for the voter registration drive, and are heavily investing in trying to replicate that success in November. I just wonder if democrats are also ensuring people have IDs this time, just in case.
 
They don't know that, though. Most 18-29 year olds are driven more by Facebook posts than candidate's actual positions.

http://www.facebook.com/BeingAmericanByGO

This is a prime example. Over 1.5 million likes. Seems like it's just a regular page about "Being American" right? Nope. Read the posts it actually puts up. It's right wing propaganda at it's finest. And the scary part it's not the ONLY one. It's about as subtle as a trainwreck to any of us, but to teens who don't follow politics....well...:(
 

RDreamer

Member
This video is aggrivating to watch

It's not that Varney is completely without valid points (this doesn't solve the problem of rising tuition costs), but he's still being a complete douche in the interview. "Bailout! Bailout! It's a bailout! You're buying votes!"


Exactly. A Romney presidency could just mean a possible chance at a better economy for them. The last four years certainly haven't worked well for them

Obviously there are large exceptions, but I really don't see Romney "stealing" those votes in any way shape or form. Most of the people I've seen are disillusioned because Obama didn't go far enough. Sure they're disillusioned enough to not vote at all, but I absolutely don't see a lot of them flipping their vote for Romney.
 
Exactly. A Romney presidency could just mean a possible chance at a better economy for them. The last four years certainly haven't worked well for them
It needs to be pointed out that there is a substantial difference between your initial claim (young people have no reason to vote) and the one you're endorsing in the quoted post above (young people are largely ignorant and susceptible to myriad forms of deception). The latter issue is what the campaign is for--and if we're merely to view it as a contest of marketing, I'd be a lot less bullish on Romney then you are.
 
I can't find it right now, but there was an article in Time last month about a massive voter registration drive that flipped a local election to democrats thanks to Latino votes. National dems have acquired the guy responsible for the voter registration drive, and are heavily investing in trying to replicate that success in November. I just wonder if democrats are also ensuring people have IDs this time, just in case.
Democrats in Nevada also took a strategy in 2010 of running strong, personable Latino candidates for State Senate to ramp up turnout. Not only did it save Harry Reid's hide but it also kept the state legislature blue, albeit narrowly.

While a state like Texas isn't likely to turn blue anytime soon, Democrats could make strong inroads in the state legislatures/Congressional districts by pursuing a similar strategy there. Hispanic non-voters are somewhat of a sleeping giant.
 

markatisu

Member
Exactly. A Romney presidency could just mean a possible chance at a better economy for them. The last four years certainly haven't worked well for them

They would vote for Ron Paul before they vote for Romney. Either way Romney still gets screwed.

Young voters just pad Obama's win, Minority voters and Women in this cycle are the ones to deliver the death blow
 

Vahagn

Member
People seem to not realize exactly how boring and unrelateable Mitt is. He has the same problem that Dukakis or Kerry or Dole had.


Once we get into the real political season, and there are debates, and stump speeches, his blandness and generally self-serving policies will turn away young voters.

Boring candidates don't inspire the youth to get off their lazy ass and vote, and despite what right wingers might believe, most Americans don't hate Obama. In fact, by and large, more Americans like Obama then they do Romney.


With such a boring, uninspiring, candidate as Romney, the only way he'll be able to win the youth vote for the more charismatic Obama would be if Obama was flat out hated, but outside of the extreme right, that's not the case.


It's a pipe dream, all Mitt might be able to do is get a few young voters to kind of feel apathetic enough not to vote for Obama, but he won't actually get their votes.
 
Exactly. A Romney presidency could just mean a possible chance at a better economy for them. The last four years certainly haven't worked well for them

OK . . . but what is Romney's magic plan to make the economy happy? Basically, just doing more of what Bush did. Now that certainly will resonate with the standard 30% of the population. But can Romney convince enough people that the Bush economic policies were doing just fine? Good luck with that Romney.

It might work . . . people are not that bright. People do tend to just vote people out blindly if they don't like things the way they are now. But is that just out of the frying pan and into the fire?
 
Wow, even making AZ legitimately competitive is huge. Just opens up more paths to 270 for Bams.

If this trend holds (which outside of a series of unforunate events it pretty much will), then Romney is about to get roflstomped in the GE. Add to the fact that most of the GOP doesn't even like him and only will stand by him just get Obama out of office...well...lol.
 

Tim-E

Member
Wow, even making AZ legitimately competitive is huge. Just opens up more paths to 270 for Bams.

Romney even having to defend Arizona at all this cycle would be a huge victory for democrats.

They would vote for Ron Paul before they vote for Romney. Either way Romney still gets screwed.

Young voters just pad Obama's win, Minority voters and Women in this cycle are the ones to deliver the death blow

Yep. The youth vote alone didn't give Obama a nearly 200+ EV win in 08. Him doing well with women and minorities were pretty much what sealed the deal and it's going to be the same this time around. With Republicans still fighting things like the Violence Against Women Act even today, those numbers are going to stay pretty solid.
 

Measley

Junior Member
The bigger issue here is how Romney is going to do with evangelicals and hard right conservatives.

Romney hasn't done well in the South and the Bible Belt. The main stronghold of conservative politics.

If this trend holds (which outside of a series of unforunate events it pretty much will), then Romney is about to get roflstomped in the GE. Add to the fact that most of the GOP doesn't even like him and only will stand by him just get Obama out of office...well...lol.

If that happens, the GOP will only get more insane in 2014 and 2016.
 

Gruco

Banned
Well I mean sure, now it looks like there might have been consequences for Romney tacking hard right on immigration and offering to destroy planned parenthood during the primary, but once he tells voters that he was just kidding, it's a whole new ballgame!
 

Measley

Junior Member
Well I mean sure, now it looks like there might have been consequences for Romney tacking hard right on immigration and offering to destroy planned parenthood during the primary, but once he tells voters that he was just kidding, it's a whole new ballgame!

Problem is if Romney starts moving back towards the center, he's going to alienate the hard-right (and more energized) portion of his base.
 
Problem is if Romney starts moving back towards the center, he's going to alienate the hard-right (and more energized) portion of his base.

And if he doesn't start moving back toward the center he's going to set in stone the alienation of, well, everyone else.

What a candidate!
 
The bigger issue here is how Romney is going to do with evangelicals and hard right conservatives.

Romney hasn't done well in the South and the Bible Belt. The main stronghold of conservative politics.

If that happens, the GOP will only get more insane in 2014 and 2016.
Oh, they'll still vote for Romney. Anti-Obama fervor is high enough that they'll be mobilized on that alone. But it's going to be a tough balancing act for Team Romney to turn out those conservative voters while winning over independents.

I think Arizona represents not just Hispanic growth, but also an exodus of centrist/moderate voters to the Democratic Party. To a lot of non-partisans, the Republican Party is the party of fiscal responsibility and family values, which sounds good on paper until they get elected and start dismantling the Department of Education or something.

From what I can tell, there's a divide between local Republicans in Arizona of the old guard establishment and the tea-flavored crazies, and the latter has overtaken the former. Jan Brewer has done blunders for the party's image. In any year that wasn't 2010, she would have lost hard.
 
Problem is if Romney starts moving back towards the center, he's going to alienate the hard-right (and more energized) portion of his base.
I think the hard right's distate for Obama will prove sufficiently motivating even as Romney shifts leftward. Where else are the going to go?

And how delicious is it to be saying that about conservatives for once?
 

Vahagn

Member
I think the hard right's distate for Obama will prove sufficiently motivating even as Romney shifts leftward. Where else are the going to go?

And how delicious is it to be saying that about conservatives for once?

Yup

I voted for Kerry, not because I liked him, but because I hated Bush.
 
Problem is if Romney starts moving back towards the center, he's going to alienate the hard-right (and more energized) portion of his base.

What are they going to do, vote for Obama? This happens in every election cycle. There will be disappointment but overall republicans are more concerned with winning the WH and senate - if they do that, they get the re-write the direction of the country. As Grover Norquist said, they don't need a great coach, just someone to call the plays.
 
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