• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

NPD Sales Results For February 2017 [Up1: For Honor highest LTD game of 2017 so far]

Welfare

Member
31% is somewhat inexact, +/-0.5% is like a 130k difference

Then

26,317,000 x 1.305 = 34,344,000
26,317,000 x 1.314 = 34,581,000

February range is then 860,000 or 623,000. 623K to 653K would fit with the note that consoles are down YoY, and while the note includes all consoles, the lack of PR assumes Xbox One is down, and there is this tweet from MatPiscatella


3DS MoM was +77% and using the results we calculated from the January prediction thread, PS4 was 211K and XB1 157K.

So at maximum, assuming PS4/XB1 combined MoM was <77%

February 2017: <651,000

That maximum fits in with them being down YoY

February 2016: 653,000

If we assume that Xbox One is down YoY due to lack of PR, then the maximum is

PS4: <403K
XB1: <248K

Barely down YoY for both but that is the absolute maximum. We need more info.
 

RexNovis

Banned
I think the Alpha, Beta and Last Chance demos are particularly the reason the game was undershipped. I think, while it's a different market, you can draw that conclusion by looking at the Japanese preorder numbers and what it actually launched to. It was expected to open at around 40k given pre-launch demand (pre-orders which are influenced by alphas/betas) but actually ended up selling far more and launched to 72k due to, I would wager, strong word of mouth immediately post launch.

I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying that the numbers for the Alpha, Beta and Demo were low? Just going by the coverage they received and the metrics on social media that would be fairly surprising imo. The strong WoM and positive coverage seemed to begin with the Alpha and Beta and the way they were iterating on the game in response to the feedback they received. I could see the pre orders being low and I believe that has been mentioned multiple times prior but there were other metrics to gauge demand from this time.
 
Then

26,317,000 x 1.305 = 34,344,000
26,317,000 x 1.314 = 34,581,000

February range is then 860,000 or 623,000. 623K to 653K would fit with the note that consoles are down YoY, and while the note includes all consoles, the lack of PR assumes Xbox One is down, and there is this tweet from MatPiscatella



3DS MoM was +77% and using the results we calculated from the January prediction thread, PS4 was 211K and XB1 157K.

So at maximum, assuming PS4/XB1 combined MoM was <77%

February 2017: <651,000

That maximum fits in with them being down YoY

February 2016: 653,000

If we assume that Xbox One is down YoY due to lack of PR, then the maximum is

PS4: <403K
XB1: <248K

Barely down YoY for both but that is the absolute maximum. We need more info.
This kind of analysis is why I come to these threads. Thanks!
 

Kazuo Hirai

I really want everyone to know how much more Titanfall 2 sold than Nioh. It was a staggering amount.
Could any mod change my tag back to "member"?
I don't know who changed it but it looks hilarious now.
 

sirronoh

Member
This kind of analysis is why I come to these threads. Thanks!

Seconded, this is fantastic Welfare!

Could any mod change my tag back to "member"?
I don't know who changed it but it looks hilarious now.

W9jXXjY.gif
 
I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying that the numbers for the Alpha, Beta and Demo were low? Just going by the coverage they received and the metrics on social media that would be fairly surprising imo. The strong WoM and positive coverage seemed to begin with the Alpha and Beta and the way they were iterating on the game in response to the feedback they received. I could see the pre orders being low and I believe that has been mentioned multiple times prior but there were other metrics to gauge demand from this time.

Yea, that's what I'm suggesting. I think this is an area where the simplest explanation is one that works best. It's far more likely, and a more plausible explanation, that the alpha/beta/last chance and pre-order numbers indicated a certain level of demand that was eclipsed at launch vs. Sony underestimating the demand despite having 3 different betas and preorder numbers telling them otherwise.
 
Um, wouldn't 50% be 2.5/5 stars (though I guess that would be a 10 point scale)? I don't think that when reviewers are rating things based on stars that they are doing it with ranges of percentages in mind.

I was using a whole point scale. If you want to go to half points it'd look like this:

0.0 Lower Bound
  • 0.0/5: 0.0-9.1%
  • 0.5/5: 9.2-18.2%
  • 1.0/5: 18.3-27.3%
  • 1.5/5: 27.4-36.4%
  • 2.0/5: 36.5-45.5%
  • 2.5/5: 45.6-54.5%
  • 3.0/5: 54.6-63.6%
  • 3.5/5: 63.7-72.7%
  • 4.0/5: 72.8-81.8%
  • 4.5/5: 81.9-90.9%
  • 5.0/5: 91.0-100.0%
0.5 Lower Bound
  • 0.5/5: 0-9%
  • 1.0/5: 10-19%
  • 1.5/5: 20-29%
  • 2.0/5: 30-39%
  • 2.5/5: 40-49%
  • 3.0/5: 50-59%
  • 3.5/5: 60-69%
  • 4.0/5: 70-79%
  • 4.5/5: 80-89%
  • 5.0/5: 90-100%
Your last point is absolutely correct and was the whole reason why I went through this exercise. I wanted to show how silly it looks to try to directly equate a star system to a percent system. Nobody thinks of star ratings that way. A star system is flat out measuring something different than a percent system.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Yea, that's what I'm suggesting. I think this is an area where the simplest explanation is one that works best. It's far more likely, and a more plausible explanation, that the alpha/beta/last chance and pre-order numbers indicated a certain level of demand that was eclipsed at launch vs. Sony underestimating the demand despite having 3 different betas and preorder numbers telling them otherwise.

Well normally I would agree but we have a historical precedent of vastly undershipping similar JP titles to consider here too. Theres just not much to point towards the pre release game tests being unsuccessful or low population given the traction they earned on social media and news sites. Metrics for engagement on twitter alone were fantastic following the beta with Nioh trending worldwide for quite some time. That to me seems like a viable way to gauge interest and demand but I suppose you could be right and that while many were talking about it not many actually played. But even still if that were the case why not consider online coverage and traction when printing and allocating release shipments?

Could any mod change my tag back to "member"?
I don't know who changed it but it looks hilarious now.

From one consistently tagged member to another just accept your shame and hope that someday you'll do or say something substantially smart or (more likely) dumb enough to get it changed. Good luck.
 
Well normally I would agree but we have a historical precedent of vastly undershipping similar JP titles to consider here too. Theres just not much to point towards the pre release game tests being unsuccessful or low population given the traction they earned on social media and news sites. Metrics for engagement on twitter alone were fantastic following the beta with Nioh trending worldwide for quite some time. That to me seems like a viable way to gauge interest and demand but I suppose you could be right and that while many were talking about it not many actually played. But even still if that were the case why not consider online coverage and traction when printing and allocating release shipments?



From one consistently tagged member to another just accept your shame and hope that someday you'll do or say something substantially smart or (more likely) dumb enough to get it changed. Good luck.

See, I don't agree with that because at the end of the day, it's still a hardcore geared niche title that does better in those metrics than actual sales will ever reflect. Along that line of thought, it's why no one for example would ever use GAF for an indication of a games popularity, I don't think Twitter metrics mean much when it comes to the larger gaming populace.

I'd see the other way if preorder numbers painted a different picture but the one market we have data for, preorder numbers were far lower than actual sales. And I think a conclusion that rests on preorder numbers being low but beta engagement being much higher rests on too much speculation.
 

donny2112

Member
Then

26,317,000 x 1.305 = 34,344,000
26,317,000 x 1.314 = 34,581,000

February range is then 860,000 or 623,000. 623K to 653K would fit with the note that consoles are down YoY, and while the note includes all consoles, the lack of PR assumes Xbox One is down, and there is this tweet from MatPiscatella



3DS MoM was +77% and using the results we calculated from the January prediction thread, PS4 was 211K and XB1 157K.

So at maximum, assuming PS4/XB1 combined MoM was <77%

February 2017: <651,000

That maximum fits in with them being down YoY

February 2016: 653,000

If we assume that Xbox One is down YoY due to lack of PR, then the maximum is

PS4: <403K
XB1: <248K

Barely down YoY for both but that is the absolute maximum. We need more info.

#1 predictor for the month, for reference.

[PS4] 410K
[XB1] 210K
 
3DS MoM was +77% and using the results we calculated from the January prediction thread, PS4 was 211K and XB1 157K.

So at maximum, assuming PS4/XB1 combined MoM was <77%

February 2017: <651,000

That maximum fits in with them being down YoY

February 2016: 653,000

If we assume that Xbox One is down YoY due to lack of PR, then the maximum is

PS4: <403K
XB1: <248K

Barely down YoY for both but that is the absolute maximum. We need more info.
As with January, I once again ran the parametric and can give more accurate estimates (though not as precise as last month).

PS4 - 395k to 651k
XB1 - 0k to 235k
Gap: must be 170k+
Combined: No more than 651k

If we make the assumption that both platforms were down YOY (EDIT: It seems this was said by NPD somewhere?), then the range becomes:

PS4 - 395k to 403k
XB1 - 0k to 233k
Gap: must be 170k+ (e.g. the results can't be 395k:233k, etc.)
 
Like ? Origin, Ubi, Battle.zone ?

NPD only has digital sales data from a handful of major publishers. That means that everything outside those publishers isn't being counted at all. The total sum only shows how much money games from those publishers made on Steam and in retail.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
PC software sales = 53 million $ !!!
Console software = 1.35 billion $

How ?
The PC Steam sales are only for the participating AAA publishers who release games on Steam, so you're basically seeing the U.S. PC digital Steam sales for Ubisoft (sans uPlay), Take-Two (sans external GTA sales), Square Enix, and the Activision half of Activision.

This is why you see ridiculous swing percentages when something like Civilization 6 releases, even if it only moves 400K in the U.S. in the reporting period.
 

Kazuo Hirai

I really want everyone to know how much more Titanfall 2 sold than Nioh. It was a staggering amount.
The PC Steam sales are only for the participating AAA publishers who release games on Steam, so you're basically seeing the U.S. PC digital Steam sales of Ubisoft, Take-Two, Square Enix, and the Activision half of Activision.
I guess that NPD also has data from Origin/Uplay?
Their software ranking count them but no Battle.net and SIE published title
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I guess that NPD also has data from Origin/Uplay?
Their software ranking count them but no Battle.net and SIE published title
Mat clarified that they don't include those, but forgot to list it in the NPD release.

I suspect they might be receiving the data, but didn't start putting it in the report yet, a la the earlier PSN Sony revenue confusion, where they thought it was in one type of ranking, but not the other, but it turned out it was in neither.
 
Top Bottom