So hey guys! The Smash Direct was pretty nuts this week, right? I thought it'd be fun to revisit my predictions and see where I'm at right now, and which guesses I've changed my mind on at this point. It'd be cool to see self-evaluations from you guys as well!
My List
Newcomers I Guessed: Mega Man, Little Mac, Greninja (Listed as
Pokemon XY Rep. Boom!)
Newcomers I Didn't Guess: Villager, Wii Fit Trainer, Rosalina
Veterans I Didn't Guess: Charizard (I actually guessed that Pokemon Trainer wouldn't be in at all. If Ivysaur and Squirtle get cut, my predictions actually get a net gain!), Sheik. (I know, I know. I wanted to take a risk with my roster... and now I wear that shame.)
So out of the 29 characters revealed so far, that's
24 correct guesses. Not too shabby. Now let's take a look at my remaining newcomer guesses and, with what I know about the roster now, see which ones I think still have a chance and which ones I don't.
Paper Mario: So Rosalina is a new Mario rep, and that might cut into his chances, but I still think he has a shot. Especially as a rep for his own franchise, just like Yoshi, Wario, and DK. He has the potential for a very unique moveset and Sticker Star was heavily in development when Sakurai was deciding the roster, so I remain semi-confident about him.
Chances: 65%
Impa: Jeez. One of my long-shot predictions was that Sheik would be finally deemed irrelevant, and replaced by Impa as Zelda's Down B. I have already gotten that wrong on
so many levels! Do I think she can still be playable as her own slot? The short answer is no. I think the only chance she has is as a Sheik clone/semi-clone, and I'm not so sure we'll be seeing new clones this time around. She'd make a lot of sense as a Sheik alt costume, but we don't know whether or not every character will have an alt yet, and that wouldn't count her for the sake of this contest in any case.
Chances: 5%
Tingle: No new evidence either against him
or in his favor has appeared for me since character reveals began. Actually no, there is one strike against him: Villager's Up-B is balloons, which is exactly what Tingle's should be if he were playable. Other than that I'm not holding my breath, but I still think he'd be a solid choice. He's well liked enough in Japan and Europe to counteract the hate for him in the US, he has tons of unique moveset potential, and Wind Waker HD was in development during roster decision time. I guess I'm on the fence for now.
Chances: 40%
Ridley: You know what?
I think that Pyrosphere footage was a fake out. Call me delusional if you want, but I'm becoming more and more convinced that if the boss on that stage was actually Ridley, we would have seen him by now. Sakurai doesn't think that we're looking forward to him announcing Ridley as
not playable, so if he hasn't ripped the bandaid off at this point, it means he has a surprise for us. Plus you freeze-framing sleuths spotted a
gray wing in that shot. Ridley aint gray.
Chances: 90%
Palutena: Oh she is so totally in. The leak, the teases that corroborate the leak... I'm actually a little surprised he didn't just get the announcement over with at the Direct.
Chances: 95%
Mewtwo / "Newtwo": Haha remember when we didn't have the phrase "Mega Pokemon" in our lexicon yet? Anyway I'm clearly wrong on at least one of these, since transformations are no longer in the game, and I highly doubt that Mewtwo would return and then take up a second character slot on top of that. The Greninja fake-out certainly implies to me that Mewtwo isn't coming back at all... but I'm still not entirely convinced.
Chances of Mewtwo: 30% ; Chances of one or both Mega Mewtwos: Only as a Final Smash
Shulk: Well that mysterious leaker says he's in! And that is literally all the proof I have right now, so I'm not completely confident. It would be great though.
Chances: 70%
Chrom: Leaker says he's in, plus he's kind of a no-brainer choice anyway. I still think he's replacing Ike, but me being wrong wouldn't be a huge surprise either.
Chances: 90%
Robin (aka Awakening's My Unit/Tactician): This was my craziest guess, and... yeah, it's looking a little crazier now. But I do think that Fire Emblem is just rife with amazing roster choices besides just blue haired swordsmen, and I sincerely hope that Sakurai is thinking the same thing... whether he picks Robin or something completely different.
Chances: 5%
Takamaru: He is weirdly absent from that leak list, and he hasn't been hinted at in all this time. But I dunno, he still makes a lot of sense. Especially since Little Mac is in. That choice was to make the US happy, now it's time to do the same for Japan.
Chances: 75%
Duck Hunt Dog: Look, crazier things have happened.
Chances: 10%
Mii: Almost definitely in. Though the fact that the Find Mii stage has its own super-specific icon instead of a Mii icon is weird. Unless it's an intentional mislead? Whatever.
Chances: 85%
Bayonetta: Zero Suit Samus' redesign and new moves actually
remind me a little of Bayonetta. Plus she was a bit of a left field choice in the first place. I still think putting her in to promote Bayonetta 2 wouldn't be completely unexpected, but I'm less sure of that now than I was at E3 2013.
Chances: 20%
Pac-Man: But at least I can finish out on a confident note. He's on the leak list, not to mention the retro Galaga items and the amount of sense he would make as an E3 2014 reveal! I'd say count on it.
Chances: 95%
Wow this is a lot of words. Hopefully some of you think this is interesting enough to do the same thing (or at least agree/argue with my choices) so I don't feel like a
complete crazy person.
