[DeaconKnowledge]

I think the next war will be sparked by Sony exiting the console race and Microsoft buying the Playstation business. I think at some point Stringer is going to decide that the R&D and the new generation launch is too expensive of a gamble, and offer Microsoft the opportunity to have the brand, the contracts, and the executives involved in Japan. I think Ballmer will take it. At that point they will gear their R&D to release a Playstation 4 in Japan, and will use either or both brandings for other markets. They'll aim to advertise full PS1 & PS2 compatibility, with selected compatibility for PS3 games. It's possible that Apple will try and join again with an Intel based competitor that has a pointer like the Wii, but I think it will have about 10% chance of happening. It may be based around the AppleTV platform and be a beefed up version of such that does games distribution through download only.

I think this is even more crazy than the OPs analysis. Sony ain't goin' anywhere man.

[vanguardian1]

What's really funny is that he edited and made his post worse.

Yep, one of the things that Nintendo did absolutely right was set the initial price of their console to a comfortable level in the first place. By offering a reasonably priced product (I'm not referring to it's technological value) at launch, it skipped a major hurdle that the HD consoles set themselves up for and also helped Nintendo to improve their initial momentum (especially combined with the Wii's "virus" effect) ;). Anyone care to guess what it is? :)

[Christine]

Aliens. The next console war will be triggered by an alien species that has crossed the black gulf between stars for the express purpose of breaking into the Earth home console market.

[goomba]

Why do these analyst have the jobs they do?

I remember they predicted the Wii to get lik 15% of the market this time around. Gaf armchair analyst were split about how the wii would do, the "experts" were all wrong.

Gameboy anyone?. That system stayed around and dominated long after competitors released handhelds with colour!.

[Mindlog]

The next console war will take place in central Europe as Germany and a few surrounding states balk at EU demands for increased special Rhinestone taxes. Quality Rhinestone will be highly coveted as all three console makers attempt to create the most visually striking product possible.

Fans argue that the particular alignment of the Rhinestones on their preferred system clearly creates a better gameplay experience.

millions are left homeless because of the war.

[Grampa Simpson]

I think this is even more crazy than the OPs analysis. Sony ain't goin' anywhere man.

Maybe.. If it does happen, I don't think it will be until 2010 at least. It will take at least 5 or 6 more depressing quarters for Sony to go this direction. If they wipe out all the profit from the PS1 and PS2 with the PS3, that will be a real key point.

This thread is really interesting:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=111003

Any which way, beyond the constant R&D planning, Nintendo isn't going to jump the gun on the next generation.

[Suburban Cowboy]

Maybe.. If it does happen, I don't think it will be until 2010 at least. It will take at least 5 or 6 more depressing quarters for Sony to go this direction. If they wipe out all the profit from the PS1 and PS2 with the PS3, that will be a real key point.

You mean if PS3 continues to gain ground and the XBOX department fails to become profitable after 10 years it will be Sony selling to Microsoft?

[Grampa Simpson]

You mean if PS3 continues to gain ground and the XBOX department fails to become profitable after 10 years it will be Sony selling to Microsoft?

If Microsoft was going to drop out because of lack of profits they would have done so already.

If anyone, Sony should be compared against Nintendo. Their main goal is profit, while Microsoft seems to have other reasons for being in the game.

[lyre]

i think sony and ms dont see the wii as real competition because it aims at a different market so they dont care if nintendo launches first with there "next-gen"-ductape thing

Only complete losers have that kind of mentality. Nintendo had that mentality last gen, the other two have it this gen.

[daCuk]

The so-called Next-Gen war will begin when prices get to this:

NDS = $99
PSP = $119
Wii = $179
X360 = Premium - $199
PS3 = 60 or 80GB with backwards comp. = $220

or

when market saturation (not only to USA-Europe-Japan, but to all over the world) happens....

And it is a long way to that, kids.

[Kilrogg]

Why do these analyst have the jobs they do? I remember they predicted the Wii to get lik 15% of the market this time around. Gaf armchair analyst were split about how the wii would do, the "experts" were all wrong. Gameboy anyone?. That system stayed around and dominated long after competitors released handhelds with colour!.

Really, I don't know how they manage to keep their jobs. I think I know WHY they do them that poorly though:

1) They rely far too much on sheer data (i.e. numbers) and sales projections, which, in most cases, works, if only to an extent. But this generation isn't "most cases".

2) They suffer from myopia. All their analyses and conjectures are based solely on what happened to the market last-gen, and maybe the 32/64-bit generation. Anything before that is completely ignored. When some historians say that History and the past allow us not to make the same mistakes any more, they're not joking, and they're not telling "what happened a loooong time ago doesn't matter". The same applies in industry.

[CreatureX3]

I think the next war will be sparked by Sony exiting the console race and Microsoft buying the Playstation business. I think at some point Stringer is going to decide that the R&D and the new generation launch is too expensive of a gamble, and offer Microsoft the opportunity to have the brand, the contracts, and the executives involved in Japan. I think Ballmer will take it. At that point they will gear their R&D to release a Playstation 4 in Japan, and will use either or both brandings for other markets. They'll aim to advertise full PS1 & PS2 compatibility, with selected compatibility for PS3 games.

I think Microsoft selling the Xbox brand to EA will happen first. :D

[DJ GT-S]

"At this point, we believe the consensus opinion among industry professionals is that the next significant hardware refresh is unlikely to occur before 2011, and more likely in 2012." But he said Nintendo's next home console could arrive before then.

I love how they qualify nintendo hardware as insignificant. And it'll turn out to be quite true I'm sure, as I'd wager Nintendo are quite happy selling dated hardware at premium prices, I'd be surprised if the followup to the wii even came close to catching up to PS360's power.

[Cipherr]

Nintendo will fuck up my "generations" and people will get used to buy hardware more often. The videogame industry will become a clusterfuck of hardware upgrading, swaping, etc just like cellphones, portables, players and PC hardware. And i don't like this shit. Extreme consumerism.

Yeah Nintendo is totally leading the way on this movement of set top box, HD swapping, media playing PC hardware upgrading esque SKU shuffle from hell. Damn them.....Damn them all.

[grandjedi6]

the real secret behind the wii success is the low price at launch and the waggle if ps3 or 360 was launched at the same price they would have outsold the wii iam pretty sure about that i think sony and ms dont see the wii as real competition because it aims at a different market so they dont care if nintendo launches first with there "next-gen"-ductape thing

You are an economist's kryptonite (that was not a compliment)

[bgassassin]

Didn't Nintendo at one point say they wanted the GC to last for ten years by creating add-ons, of which one of these add-ons turned out to be the Wiimote?

I think Nintendo won't release another home console till at least 2014.

[Kilrogg]

I love how they qualify nintendo hardware as insignificant. And it'll turn out to be quite true I'm sure, as I'd wager Nintendo are quite happy selling dated hardware at premium prices, I'd be surprised if the followup to the wii even came close to catching up to PS360's power.

I'm more amused at how they qualify themselves and the bunch of gullible people gravitating around the profession as "industry professionals". You're not an industry professional if a bunch of amateurs on a messageboard can get it right more often than you do, or at least, can see when an analysis is wrong when they see it.

[Deku]

Considering Wii is GC Turbo, 10 years of GameCube would be around 2011. Lazard may be right afterall.

[ghostlyjoe]

Consider this:

Sony and MS are hoping to limp through this generation long enough for their boxes to be profitable (the 10-year plan, etc., etc.).

By jumpstarting the next-generation, Nintendo could force their two competitors to "lock-in" their losses from this gen by forcing the issue on a new round of hardware. Are Sony and MS ready to drop billions more on loss-leading a new product in a couple years?

I think a new Wii in a few short years would be a brutally aggressive strategy for Nintendo. It would certainly mean leaving profit on the table, but it would really put the competition in a bad position.

[charlequin]

By jumpstarting the next-generation, Nintendo could force their two competitors to "lock-in" their losses from this gen by forcing the issue on a new round of hardware.

They could?

The same problem that ties Sony and Microsoft's hands on starting a new generation also applies in reverse. Because their selling point is in their motion control, Nintendo doesn't have a straightforward advancement plan either. If they put out a system that's just an HD Wii in three years, there's really nothing stopping either competitor from continuing to sell their system (which would not meaningfully be outclassed graphically by the new Wii) or repackaging an overclocked hardware at a low cost.

In other words, the problem both HD systems face now (selling to the niche of hardcore technophile gamers) becomes an advantage in this circumstance, because that market isn't going to switch to an equivalently powered, more casual-skewed new console launch.

[otake]

Only complete losers have that kind of mentality. Nintendo had that mentality last gen, the other two have it this gen.

if all the hardware manufacturers decide to go the wii-route I will quit console gaming!

[Thunder Monkey]

if all the hardware manufacturers decide to go the wii-route I will quit console gaming!

Then you'll either quit gaming, or learn to love the industries new direction.

I don't think it's a matter of "if", it's more a when situation.

[Eteric Rice]

if all the hardware manufacturers decide to go the wii-route I will quit console gaming!

Quit now.

Please?

[duk]

no reason for Nintendo to jump the next-gen way with way Wii is selling :lol

[DrGAKMAN]

if all the hardware manufacturers decide to go the wii-route I will quit console gaming!

BYE.

MS & Sony will scramble for the casuals in the next-gen...and this is a good thing as it would (hopefully) mean cheaper launch hardware.

This topic is more about what Nintendo will do next-gen. However...I do believe that Nintendo wants to set the record straight about this "core vs casual" BS before they even talk of next-gen and this will likely happen when things like the HD-era supporters start to feel dwarfed next to Wii sales to the point that they must take Wii more seriously as the market leader it will become. This will also help set them up for more serious support when they launch into their next-gen whenever that may be.

As it stands (like with MS trying to establish the X-BOX brand by getting a "big game" TM last generation (that big game being GTA)) I think a lot of people inside and outside this industry are waiting for the day when Wii get's it's GTA support. It doesn't neccessarily have to be GTA, just a serious effort that was once thought to be HD-era-only. Once this happens then I don't think many publishers/developers will continue to shun the Wii with silly efforts or no support at all. We're sorta seeing it already sith more multi-plat games also coming to Wii and X360 brands also coming to Wii later on. I've been a proponent of the belief that RE4 & SF4 will come to the Wii and that both of these games are sorta under the HD-era-only serious efforts that would turn heads if they're on Wii. And I know it seems silly that CAPCOM would have to "test" the Wii market again with a game like Dead Rising first, but I imagine that it will have some effect on whether RE5 & SF4 will come to Wii. I think SF4 is more of a give-in on Wii, while RE5 is more of a "holy shizz" announcement if it happens...however, in both cases, CAPCOM has TONS of money invested in the HD-era versions so there's no way in hell they're going to butcher sales of those expensive-to-make titles by announcing a Wii version of either this early. They'll likely maximize sales of both and THEN (as they said, see how they sell on other systems first) announce Wii versions soon after. Yeah, I know that sounds like shit to us Wii owners, but it makes the most business sense for them and I'd rather get it late then not at all.

Also around this time GTA will have already launched on NDS and I imagine that if it's a good, fun, serious (3D) effort that it'll be huge on the system and RockStar will more seriously consider bring some form of GTA to Wii...the day that happens (GTA or RE5 being announced for Wii) is the day the rest of the industry falls in line (as they did moreso for the original X-BOX when GTA came) and starts taking Wii even more seriously. "Gamers" will also fall in line and that "core vs casual" BS (won't end, but) will take a back-seat in anti-Wii arguments. THEN we will see Wii hitting another stride and I don't see it slowing even if it takes until late 2009 for this to happen...by then the industry will be flip-flopped on it's ear as well and HD-era-only games will come, but they'll be even less significant in light of the records Wii hardware & software will continue to outsell it at. All this with a Wii color array, pricedrop, bundles & re-design still left to give Nintendo breathing room. This generation hasn't even really begun yet, Sony & MS should invest in anal lube.

[frankthurk]

BYE. MS & Sony will scramble for the casuals in the next-gen...and this is a good thing as it would (hopefully) mean cheaper launch hardware.

I doubt it. I don't think Sony will ever go full speed after the casual, maybe they'll try to be more friendly, but Sony is about selling the high tech hardware of all sorts. They will continue to push because it helps their other divisions.

[Ike]

Wow, analysts predicting something that is well known. That must be a really easy job to just play a fortune teller or state the obvious. Where can I sign up for this job?

[skinnyrattler]

The so-called Next-Gen war will begin when prices get to this: NDS = $99 PSP = $119 Wii = $179 X360 = Premium - $199 PS3 = 60 or 80GB with backwards comp. = $220

Uh, dude, short memo: DS and Wii have already started and finished their 'warz' at price points above what you think. So much, that DS went up from launch price in one territory.

if all the hardware manufacturers decide to go the wii-route I will quit console gaming!

Just go to PC gaming.

[Suburban Cowboy]

if all the hardware manufacturers decide to go the wii-route I will quit console gaming!

No you wont.

[justchris]

if all the hardware manufacturers decide to go the wii-route I will quit console gaming!

Start saving for a new pc. You'll be glad you did.

[Kobun Heat]

So fwiw, this is a pretty big misinterpretation of Sebastian's comments -- he was really referring to the possibility of a slightly upgraded Wii, not The Next Console.

[ElFly]

So fwiw, this is a pretty big misinterpretation of Sebastian's comments -- he was really referring to the possibility of a slightly upgraded Wii, not The Next Console.

"faster processing power" is basically a different console

[ghostlyjoe]

They could? The same problem that ties Sony and Microsoft's hands on starting a new generation also applies in reverse. Because their selling point is in their motion control, Nintendo doesn't have a straightforward advancement plan either. If they put out a system that's just an HD Wii in three years, there's really nothing stopping either competitor from continuing to sell their system (which would not meaningfully be outclassed graphically by the new Wii) or repackaging an overclocked hardware at a low cost. In other words, the problem both HD systems face now (selling to the niche of hardcore technophile gamers) becomes an advantage in this circumstance, because that market isn't going to switch to an equivalently powered, more casual-skewed new console launch.

In three years, they should be able to offer more refined control and better horsepower at a good price. Consumers have typically been willing to make the jump to a new gen every five years. People might be more inclined to make the jump than you expect. It worked for MS (sort of). It certainly put Sony in a tough predicament: overpriced, launching late and with a considerable deficit in games thanks to MS's head start.

It's all speculation, but that's what makes it interesting, no? You at least have to concede that, of the three hardware manufactureres, Nintendo will be in the best position to relaunch in three years.

[HK-47]

When you are winning, your incentive is to keep the current generation going for as long as possible. There is literally no conceivable reason to deviate from this plan; there are no external factors (besides when your competitors launch) that would making in a specific year more favorable, and launching itself is a huge money sink that is only made worthwhile by the years of profit it brings on the tail end. To see who will start a new generation, you have to look at who's not getting the benefit of that profit tail. Last generation, it was Microsoft: their system cost them tons of money to manufacture, so the longer the generation lasted the worse off they were. This time around, it's not clear that anyone really has a good incentive to start over yet: 360 has finally become profitable, PS3 has been improving in overall sales, and all three systems have tons of room for pricecuts. This is why the 2012 figure they cite makes sense despite putting the overall length of the generation at noticeably longer than last time around. For the record, the market leader has never led off a new generation, and Nintendo has never led off a new generation either.

DS

[Log4Girlz]

Wow, analysts predicting something that is well known. That must be a really easy job to just play a fortune teller or state the obvious. Where can I sign up for this job?

You can sign up on the internets.

[LCGeek]

In three years, they should be able to offer more refined control and better horsepower at a good price. Consumers have typically been willing to make the jump to a new gen every five years. People might be more inclined to make the jump than you expect. It worked for MS (sort of). It certainly put Sony in a tough predicament: overpriced, launching late and with a considerable deficit in games thanks to MS's head start. It's all speculation, but that's what makes it interesting, no? You at least have to concede that, of the three hardware manufactureres, Nintendo will be in the best position to relaunch in three years.

How would they be in the best position in three years if they are having the lead on software and hardware sales? Them being first means they will take a bigger risk jumping than the other two since one can claim they are better benefitted trying to cut nintendo down rather than a company that most would expect would be doing a lot to maintain their #1 spot.

I hate dumb analyst like this as theymake a hypothesis almost entirely on the fact of what Wii's internal hardware is and use everything around them possible to support it even if Wii wasn't the cause of it. Articles like these ignore the fact that despite nintendo not really wanting to do what they did they did it for business reasons not to engage in a pissing contest that would drain them of a lot of money. They also ignore the fact Wii has momentum that I doubt nintendo is going to jump ship on until it's steam has run out a lot.

Nintendo will make the most of the situation considering a next gen sku is something they are already working on. They gain more by letting this situation drag out longer because not only does it guarantee more time to R&D on what they want, but also because it will bring them more money in with Wii granted the rest of it's years are healthy. Only types who go against the grain of this have an agenda they don't want to admit too or already have who can't stand that nintendo hasn't matured at the rate they have with tech they need in a product.

Nintendo is sticking this hardware in the next handheld, you can quote me on that. Their new system I can tell is going to mop the floor with current gen hardware considering the company that has been making it is now part of amd and they can build something where the main parts are all done by one very capable company at a cheap price as ATI has been demonstrating with their newer gpu hardware.