Could be the first time it's wrong this month.
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August 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Could be the first time it's wrong this month.
It's been wrong once before.
When?
That month earlier this year where Xb1 was top selling, March or April, can't remember.
spatenfloot
Member
It wasn't wrong. People just misinterpreted the data.
I remember. You're talking about April. Well it was still correct technically. XB1 was 1 space behind PS4 with the next SKU a couple spaces down.
Prototype Viktor
Member
[PS4] 240k
[XB1] 167k
[3DS] 83k
[WIU] 37k
[XB1] 167k
[3DS] 83k
[WIU] 37k
The Point is... The PS4 last year with The Last of us bundle sold less than in August. Even if tecnically July was going to be a bigger month.
Now. This time the PS4 has NOTHING on July ( GOW III was a massive bomba ), so, with this Madden promotion, seem likely believe PS4 is gonna to sell in August more than in July...
Welfare
Member
July of this year would still be riding on sales of the Batman bundle that launched in late June.
Basically after W4 of June, I'm guessing sales have been slowing each week up until Madden week, so W1-3 of July would be above W1-3 of August, but W4 of August is a huge jump in sales.
Am I making any sense?
Make sense, but i can say the same with XBO.
After Batman and 1TB model the sales are decrease all week since the TV deal... That Said, this August seem way stronger than last year, so i see likely a bigger increase than last year for both.
About PS4, last year was the pre-Destiny bundle month, and that's decrease the PS4 sales For August 2014 by a lot. This year has another bundle in September with Destiny TTK, but yeah... You Know... Not even close...
Last, Metal Gear is seriusly close with end of this month, and the Metal Gear hype is gonna to increase a bit the sales. And there is Until Dawn, why not.
Adding with the Madden promotion... I see A LOT of reason For a PS4 increase.
I'm not sure if PS4 Will beat XB1, that's the funny thing of this month, but i'm pretty sure that PS4 in August Will sell more than in July.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
One thing to note is that MGSV and Destiny may have grabbed some momentum from the Batman bundle. Which could have given the PS4 the boost it need. Also MGSV is releasing early this year, this same month apparently, that along with the Madden announcement being with every PS4 will be very helpful.
I'm not saying the PS4 will win this month, although there's a good chance, but I think most of the damage has been offset by now. It may be a small win of around 20k. Then of course Sept belongs to the PS4, as Fifa is a Playstation brand and Forza... well, lol.
HanzSnubSnub
Member
First time participating, here goes!
[3DS] 85K
[PS4] 245K
[WIU] 32K
[XB1] 210K
[3DS] 85K
[PS4] 245K
[WIU] 32K
[XB1] 210K
When people use Amazon monthly to predict NPD, they're looking at the relative rankings of the top SKU of each console.
Amazon was wrong, for one month, using those guidelines. Amazon showed the PS4 ranked ahead of the Xbox One, and that relative ranking didn't hold up for that month's NPD results.
Every other month this generation has been correctly predicted by Amazon.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
Finally.
Looks like Wii did pretty good in Europe however it seems obvious the PS3 has passed it by a bit.
I'm trying to find the split of the 360 and PS3. I got 63 to 60 respectively.
slavesnyder
Member
Amazon added no TV to an Xbox, so no wonder PS4 is looking like a winner there.
Clever people did not buy their Xbox on Amazon that month.
I guess Xbox did not sell much more, just shifted the balance between retailers.
[3DS] 72k
[PS4] 224k
[WIU] 38k
[XB1] 205k
Clever people did not buy their Xbox on Amazon that month.
I guess Xbox did not sell much more, just shifted the balance between retailers.
[3DS] 72k
[PS4] 224k
[WIU] 38k
[XB1] 205k
Yup, PS3 passed Wii in Europe.
Try correlating it to when in the month Madden is released. jvm had a report some years ago that Madden was getting released later and later, so that could be playing into August's MOM performance.
Yeah, it could still be XB1 for the month, but I figure PS4's baseline over 4 weeks is enough to still beat it. Could be wrong, but that's a good reason why this month's results are going to be interesting! (^_^)
But in that case you had to look a little bit closer, as Amazon differentiates SKUs while NPD does not.
Was the ranking technically wrong when considering 1 SKU vs 1 SKU? Yes.
Was the ranking wrong overall? Actually I think it might have been quite accurate.
So when looking a little beyond appearances, Amazon monthly hasn't been wrong so far, and considering what we know I doubt it'll be wrong in August either.
Don't be King .com.
Welfare
Member
Alright, so Madden 11 (2010) was the last Madden to release early in August. Every Madden since then has been in the final week of August.
I'll be starting in 2010 for just the PS3 as Aug 2010 for the 360 was affected by sales dropping off for the Slim model.
2010 PS3 MoM change from July to August: +5%
2011 and 2012 actually don't have Madden in the August NPD, as the launch dates fell into Septembers tracking period. Aug 2011 is also when the PS3 got a price cut to $249 on the 16th. I'll still give a MoM for both years but will be removing the PS3 for 2011. Nothing significant happens for the PS3 or 360 for 2012, 2013, and 2014.
2011 360 MoM change from July to August: +11%
2012 PS3 MoM change from July to August: +0%
360 MoM change from July to August: -5%
2013 PS3 MoM change from July to August: -10%
360 MoM change from July to August: -10%
2014 PS3 MoM change from July to August: -16%
360 MoM change from July to August: -7%
Now for the PS4
2014 PS4 MoM change from July to August: +2%
XB1 had the Madden bundle in 2014, so it got a bigger boost of 22% (Biggest boost for an Xbox console in August since 2007)
It looks like that with a later release for Madden, overall monthly sales have started to drop from July and stay flat at best (unless a bundle or price drop happens).
Interesting month
What always surprised me with Madden, and the PS3 in general is how shit software sales were for the PS3 early on.
You had games like Madden NFL 07 which couldn't get near half a million in the US and NFL 08 which couldn't break a million. Meanwhile the 360 and PS2 versions were doing 4.7m combined for 07 and 4.1m for 08.
Madden NFL 08 for example, one of the best selling in the series, sold 6.8 million units across PS3, PS2, PSP, Wii, GC, DS, 360, XBX with the PS3 version accounting for less than 12%.
In fact with Madden NFL 07 it was even worse with the PS3 accounting for just 5% of the total 7.3 million units sold in the USA across all platforms.
Thankfully PS3 sales for Madden got better and hit 2 million and over in time but boy were sales very low early on for PS3.
I think for PS2 we saw Madden have 5 or so games in the top 10 best selling games. With PS3 it's just COD and GTA in the top 10 haha. Madden has seen more sales on PS3/360 than we saw on PS2 though which shows the series is still doing well.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
What is your obsession with NPD topics?
Welfare
Member
Well early on everyone spent their money just to buy the damn system!
Ok so first I have a quick question: Do we know of the 2DS price drop to $99 caused any sort of sales bump for 3DS in August? Speaking as someone who has vowed not to buy a 3DS because of region locking the $99 price point was really tempting for me.
I'm honestly torn on this month. I think it could go either way mainly because I expect some deferred PS4 sales in August. There will be a subset that is waiting to purchase the Taken King bundle or even waiting for MGSV to pick up the console. I'd expect that to have a modest effect on the August sales.
I'm hoping Until Dawn sees strong opening sales thanks to the positive word of mouth surrounding the title. I think it will prove pretty successful for Supermassive Games. Speaking personally a lot of my friends picked it up and raved about it.
As far as the TV sale goes while it was an insane deal it was also only available at BestBuy which given the market %age BB sales contribute means it will have a muted effect on the month as a whole. It also makes BestBuy insight an outlier for the month. Since GameStop is by far the largest segment of retail gaming purchases and it instead had some PS4 deals (ie the madden deal) I think the month may still go to PS4 despite the BB door buster and the expected deferred sales. The Amazon monthly charts seem to back this up but I think the margin will be pretty close. Probably around the same we've seen the last few months.
So given all the above these are my current predictions:
[PS4] 228k
[XB1] 215K
[3DS] 91k
[WIU] 42K
Subject to change given further retailer specific or 2DS price drop insight.
I'm honestly torn on this month. I think it could go either way mainly because I expect some deferred PS4 sales in August. There will be a subset that is waiting to purchase the Taken King bundle or even waiting for MGSV to pick up the console. I'd expect that to have a modest effect on the August sales.
I'm hoping Until Dawn sees strong opening sales thanks to the positive word of mouth surrounding the title. I think it will prove pretty successful for Supermassive Games. Speaking personally a lot of my friends picked it up and raved about it.
As far as the TV sale goes while it was an insane deal it was also only available at BestBuy which given the market %age BB sales contribute means it will have a muted effect on the month as a whole. It also makes BestBuy insight an outlier for the month. Since GameStop is by far the largest segment of retail gaming purchases and it instead had some PS4 deals (ie the madden deal) I think the month may still go to PS4 despite the BB door buster and the expected deferred sales. The Amazon monthly charts seem to back this up but I think the margin will be pretty close. Probably around the same we've seen the last few months.
So given all the above these are my current predictions:
[PS4] 228k
[XB1] 215K
[3DS] 91k
[WIU] 42K
Subject to change given further retailer specific or 2DS price drop insight.
Welcome back mate.
2DS price drop actually happened the day after this month ended. So I don't expect there to be any sort of impact whatsoever in August NPD.
August should see around 400k-450k combined units sold for PS4/ONE if my projections are correct.
I think Until Dawn will be one of those games that accumulates sales over a longer period rather than having a huge launch.
Megadragon15
Member
[3DS] 110K
[PS4] 218K
[WIU] 45K
[XB1] 188K
[PS4] 218K
[WIU] 45K
[XB1] 188K
Darth Smurf X
Member
[PS4] 215K
[XB1] 209K
[WIU] 41K
[3DS] 89K
I'm also hoping Until Dawn does some big numbers. That game deserves it.
[XB1] 209K
[WIU] 41K
[3DS] 89K
I'm also hoping Until Dawn does some big numbers. That game deserves it.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
Even if it was done on the first day of tracking I don't there would be much of a bump because it's the 2DS. Not the most wanted device in the DS family.
Thebeardofknowledge
Banned
anyone still think the Xbone will take august ?
Amazon Sales rankings for the month of August
#3 - MGS 5/ The Phantom Pain PS4
#5 - COD: BLOPS III PS4 (Pre Order)
#6 - COD: BLOPS III XB1 (Pre Order)
#7 - Madden 16 PS4
#10 - Super Mario Maker WiiU (Pre Order)
#12 - XB1 Wireless Controller Standard
#15 - PS4 Arkham Knight Bundle - $399
#16 - Rare Replay XB1
#19 - Madden 16 XB1
#20 - Gears of War Ultimate Ed XB1
#21 - DS4 White
#23 - XB1 Halo 5 Bundle $499 Pre Order
#24 - DS4 Black
#26 - Until Dawn PS4
#27 - Fallout 4 PS4 (Pre Order)
#29 - Halo 5 XB1 Pre Order
#30 - Xenoblade Chronicles X WiiU Pre Order
#32 - Far Cry 4 PS4
#33 - Madden 16 Deluxe Ed XB1
#34 - PS4 Destiny TKK Bundle $399 Pre Order
#36 - Splatoon WiiU
#37 - XB1 Halo MCC bundle $349
#38 - Batman AK PS4
#39 - Destiny PS4
#42 - Madden 16 Deluxe Ed PS4
#44 - GTA V PS4
#45 - Remote Wii plus Wii U
#46 - Fallout 4 XB1 Pre Order
#49 - Battlefront PS4 Pre Order
#54 - DS4 Camo
#55 - Ass Creed Unity PS4
#57 - Super Smash Bros Wii U
#59 - Battlefront XB1 Pre Order
#60 - Batman AK XB1
#64 - DS4 Blue
#68 - Witcher III PS4
#69 - TLOU R PS4
#72 - MGS 5 TPP XB1
#74 - Destiny TKK PS4 Pre Order
#77 - Mad Max PS4 Pre Order
#79 - Wii U Super Mario 3D Bundle $299
#81 - XB1 Halo MCC 1Tb Bundle $399
#82 - New XB1 Wireless controller
#83 - NBA2K16 PS4 Pre Order
#84 - Super Mario Kart 8 WiiU
#85 - Destiny XB1
#88 - Far Cry 4 XB1
#96 - Mortal Kombat X PS4
#97 - XB1 Wireless controller special ed
#98 - XB1 Madden 16 1Tb Bundle $399
Amazon Sales rankings for the month of August
#3 - MGS 5/ The Phantom Pain PS4
#5 - COD: BLOPS III PS4 (Pre Order)
#6 - COD: BLOPS III XB1 (Pre Order)
#7 - Madden 16 PS4
#10 - Super Mario Maker WiiU (Pre Order)
#12 - XB1 Wireless Controller Standard
#15 - PS4 Arkham Knight Bundle - $399
#16 - Rare Replay XB1
#19 - Madden 16 XB1
#20 - Gears of War Ultimate Ed XB1
#21 - DS4 White
#23 - XB1 Halo 5 Bundle $499 Pre Order
#24 - DS4 Black
#26 - Until Dawn PS4
#27 - Fallout 4 PS4 (Pre Order)
#29 - Halo 5 XB1 Pre Order
#30 - Xenoblade Chronicles X WiiU Pre Order
#32 - Far Cry 4 PS4
#33 - Madden 16 Deluxe Ed XB1
#34 - PS4 Destiny TKK Bundle $399 Pre Order
#36 - Splatoon WiiU
#37 - XB1 Halo MCC bundle $349
#38 - Batman AK PS4
#39 - Destiny PS4
#42 - Madden 16 Deluxe Ed PS4
#44 - GTA V PS4
#45 - Remote Wii plus Wii U
#46 - Fallout 4 XB1 Pre Order
#49 - Battlefront PS4 Pre Order
#54 - DS4 Camo
#55 - Ass Creed Unity PS4
#57 - Super Smash Bros Wii U
#59 - Battlefront XB1 Pre Order
#60 - Batman AK XB1
#64 - DS4 Blue
#68 - Witcher III PS4
#69 - TLOU R PS4
#72 - MGS 5 TPP XB1
#74 - Destiny TKK PS4 Pre Order
#77 - Mad Max PS4 Pre Order
#79 - Wii U Super Mario 3D Bundle $299
#81 - XB1 Halo MCC 1Tb Bundle $399
#82 - New XB1 Wireless controller
#83 - NBA2K16 PS4 Pre Order
#84 - Super Mario Kart 8 WiiU
#85 - Destiny XB1
#88 - Far Cry 4 XB1
#96 - Mortal Kombat X PS4
#97 - XB1 Wireless controller special ed
#98 - XB1 Madden 16 1Tb Bundle $399
Yeah, I still think that Xbox One may be the winner. Amazon is just a tiny piece of the market.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
Fallout 4 preorders charting higher on Pyton 4 than xbone is surprising.
Why? PS4 install base is bigger.
slavesnyder
Member
Pre-season.
Wait for Halo-month.
It will be a blast either way.
And after that black friday and christmas. Until then we have to hold through.
Last months thread was a slow burner but it kept entertaining constantly.
slavesnyder
Member
They sold less TV sets for sure.
Not that much higher in the U.S. Isn't the Amazon list for US only?
As I always said, if other retailers have deals going on you can't use it solely to predict a winner.
Thebeardofknowledge
Banned
and you think it's gonna be any different from walmart , best buy , target or gamestop ?
B&M is a much different marketplace than a 100% online store.
Welfare
Member
Yes it is.
Also Amazon isn't the best retailer for software placements. For example, in March, they sold more PS4 versions of Hardline, but overall the Xbox One version sold more, and Bloodborne was the top selling piece of software that month.
Don't look at Amazon if you want to talk about software.
Ahhh ok. How about hardware? Reading this last page, seems pretty close ?