October 2009 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

[jvm]

My article is up this morning on the latest results announced by the NPD Group. You can read it here:
Direct link to Gamasutra story about October 2009 NPD data.
A few things of interest perhaps:

• Comments on the PS3 and PSP Go situation, sorta generic.
• PSP Top 5 for Oct 09. (Also Batman at #10. CTW below that.)
• YTD HW, SW unit data and ASP data
• Suggesting that the Wii price drop should have come earlier and how the NDSi has improved and stabilised NDS HW sales.

The NPD Group was extremely helpful in making this month's column come together.

A picture for fun:


As always, I'm up for corrections, comments, etc. Please don't take a lack of immediate response personally -- I may simply not be here. My overlordseditors will probably be watching the thread, so changes may happen without a direct response from me.

Thanks, as always, guys.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December and all of 2007
November 2007
October 2007

[apujanata]

Repeated requests to the NPD Group for more detailed (PSP) data have been politely declined.

If only NPD share the data, your article would be much more interesting .

[DMeisterJ]

Not only did Guitar Hero 5 and The Beatles: Rock Band fail to make the top 20 chart, but those games almost didn't make it into the top 10 games on any given platform. Only the Wii version of The Beatles: Rock Band made that platform's top 10 list, at #7, behind Cabela's Big Game Hunter 2010 by Activision.

Oh my. That's... Terrible.

[pseudocaesar]

Oh my. That's... Terrible.

About time though.

[Parl]

Oh my. That's... Terrible.

The industry sure knows how to kill itself.

[chubigans]

If only NPD share the data, your article would be much more interesting .

Bah, it's plenty interesting on it's own. Thanks once again JVM.

[schuelma]

he he:

"However some information appears to have slipped through the cracks. The post history of “creamsugar”, a member of the rowdy NeoGAF forum, reveals numerous data leaks, presumably from official NPD Group reports, and those leaks have proven reliable when later compared with official data. "


Rowdy..that's how we roll

[Archie]

Oh my. That's... Terrible.

Good job, Activision.

[Hammer24]

"rowdy", huh?

However, nice article as usual, thx!

[Cosmonaut X]

Good job, Activision.

Indeed. Bobby Kotick seems never to have met a golden goose he wouldn't kill...

[Jocchan]

Good job, Activision.

Only the Wii version of The Beatles: Rock Band made that platform's top 10 list, at #7, behind Cabela's Big Game Hunter 2010 by Activision.

Just according to keikaku.

[DMeisterJ]

Indeed. Bobby Kotick seems never to have met a golden goose he wouldn't kill...

Well CoD was here before it and after it dies it will be here, but I think thats thanks to IW for differentiating themselves from the CoD franchise. You see how small CoD is on the MW2 box, and I imagine MW3 will be strictly called 'Modern Warfare 3', but the box will contain someting like 'From the makers of Call of Duty'.

[Archie]

Well CoD was here before it and after it dies it will be here, but I think thats thanks to IW for differentiating themselves from the CoD franchise. You see how small CoD is on the MW2 box, and I imagine MW3 will be strictly called 'Modern Warfare 3', but the box will contain someting like 'From the makers of Call of Duty'.

MW2 wasn't going to carry the 'Call of Duty' name, but that was changed due to lack of consumer interest. I think that IW will be shackled to 'Call of Duty' for all of their games, even if it is in size 6 font.

[bcn-ron]

Last page:
"The Xbox 360 Elite had its price cut to replace the old $300 Core model."

Core was phased out long ago and replaced by Arcade. You mean the Pro (formerly Premium) SKU.

[Drkirby]

Any breakdown of how many units the Go sold?

[DMeisterJ]

MW2 wasn't going to carry the 'Call of Duty' name, but that was changed due to lack of consumer interest. I think that IW will be shackled to 'Call of Duty' for all of their games, even if it is in size 6 font.

Yeah, I remember that.

But I mean, I don't think it will house CoD before it for MW3. When you put the disc in the PS3 it just says Modern Warfare 2 on the splash screen before you start the disc. That was huge to me, as I expected the CoD before it. I imagine they'll try it again, but I think it'll be more successful this time.

Any breakdown of how many units the Go sold?

Did you not read the article?

[polyh3dron]

[Freedom = $1.05]

Well CoD was here before it and after it dies it will be here, but I think thats thanks to IW for differentiating themselves from the CoD franchise. You see how small CoD is on the MW2 box, and I imagine MW3 will be strictly called 'Modern Warfare 3', but the box will contain someting like 'From the makers of Call of Duty'.

I'm willing to bet that COD appears nowhere on MW3, not even on the standard package. No one is calling this a Call of Duty game. Everyone I've talked to has referred to it as Modern Warfare 2. Mission accomplished on IW's part.

But I mean, I don't think it will house CoD before it for MW3. When you put the disc in the PS3 it just says Modern Warfare 2 on the splash screen before you start the disc. That was huge to me, as I expected the CoD before it. I imagine they'll try it again, but I think it'll be more successful this time.

Yup, and whenever you look at someone who's playing it on your friends list it shows up as "Modern Warfare 2". Same thing with the trophies list.

[Grant DaNasty]

I'm willing to bet that COD appears nowhere on MW3, not even on the standard package. No one is calling this a Call of Duty game. Everyone I've talked to has referred to it as Modern Warfare 2. Mission accomplished on IW's part. Yup, and whenever you look at someone who's playing it on your friends list it shows up as "Modern Warfare 2". Same thing with the trophies list.

Yeah, they're trying to create 2 separate brands. We're just in the awkward segue stage now.

[Pureauthor]

Nice article. Thanks.

Man, the PSP's really in a rut.

[Allan Holdsworth]

PSP - GO = 100K Black : White = 2:1

total sales for PSP were 174.6K, so Go must be 74.6k (I read that as PSP total minus Go equals 100k)

[Road]

First line has a misplaced comma: ultra-nitpicky

Earlier this, year conventional wisdom held that the videogame industry would make a dramatic turnaround in the back half of 2009.

Thanks for the article.

[TunaLover]

Even this slight Nintendo downfall, it´s over the industry overall? Revenue wise 2009?

[Y2Kev]

I think the goal is ultimately to have a Modern Warfare brand and a Call of Brand so that they can have a Modern Warfare and a Call of Duty every year. Treyarch will make 3 and Infinity Ward will make 1. It'll be awesome.

[Kintaro]

Not only did Guitar Hero 5 and The Beatles: Rock Band fail to make the top 20 chart, but those games almost didn't make it into the top 10 games on any given platform. Only the Wii version of The Beatles: Rock Band made that platform's top 10 list, at #7, behind Cabela's Big Game Hunter 2010 by Activision.

[HamPster PamPster]

Oh my, GTA on the PSP sold worse than Lego Batman? Isn't Lego Batman a year old at this point?

Of course Lego Batman has a demo on PSN and GTA doesn't therefore I conclusively prove that demos increase sales... more demos on PSP please

[jay]

I'd like to see more articles written with this paragraph:

However some information appears to have slipped through the cracks. The post history of “creamsugar”, a member of the rowdy NeoGAF forum, reveals numerous data leaks, presumably from official NPD Group reports, and those leaks have proven reliable when later compared with official data.

[LosDaddie]

My article is up this morning on the latest results announced by the NPD Group. You can read it here: Direct link to Gamasutra story about October 2009 NPD data.

Thanks!

Now I have something to read at lunch today

[Tobor]

total sales for PSP were 174.6K, so Go must be 74.6k (I read that as PSP total minus Go equals 100k)

No, it's clearly the other way around.

[Ultimo hombre]

Bye bye music games. I had plenty of fun with Rock Band series but I'm burned out. Haven't had any motivation to play for months now. fun while it lasted though.

[Drkirby]

I think the goal is ultimately to have a Modern Warfare brand and a Call of Brand so that they can have a Modern Warfare and a Call of Duty every year. Treyarch will make 3 and Infinity Ward will make 1. It'll be awesome.

I think they can branch it off completely after this. And I wonder if Activision will try to make anther Call of Duty spin off.

[vehn]

site's blocked at work ... why can't you just paste it here :(

[Y2Kev]

I think they can branch it off completely after this. And I wonder if Activision will try to make anther Call of Duty spin off.

Sure, why not? We can have Call of Duty set in whatever time Activision has their shit developer of choice make it, World at War by Treyarch and another lackey team, and then Modern Warfare by IW and another lackey team. 3 games a year! Call of Duty: Metallica for 2011.

[bcn-ron]

I think the goal is ultimately to have a Modern Warfare brand and a Call of Brand so that they can have a Modern Warfare and a Call of Duty every year. Treyarch will make 3 and Infinity Ward will make 1. It'll be awesome.

The regular Call Of Duty will be renamed to Old-Fashioned Warfare though.

edit:

Sure, why not? We can have Call of Duty set in whatever time Activision has their shit developer of choice make it, World at War by Treyarch and another lackey team, and then Modern Warfare by IW and another lackey team. 3 games a year! Call of Duty: Metallica for 2011.

Metallica: Call Of Duty, more likely.

[Neuromancer]

I don't understand this new hatred of music rhythm games. It's not like there aren't other games to play.

Although, with Neversoft working on GH until the end of time, we'll never get a Gun 2. =(

[Kintaro]

I think they can branch it off completely after this. And I wonder if Activision will try to make anther Call of Duty spin off.

Yes. The plan to speed the Call of Duty franchise into the realm of "who gives a shit" (population, non-numbered Final Fantasy games), thereby weakening the franchise as a whole is coming to fruition...

[beermonkey@tehbias]

Maybe PS3 Slim sales are really cutting into PSP sales.

[Skiptastic]

Matt,

Out of curiosity, when you set up the framework for these articles, do you try to cover all bases (Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo) or do you only focus on what stories the numbers tell for a specific month? The reason I ask is because in this article you covered Sony and Nintendo, but didn't have anything specific on the 360.

I always like to kind of compare and contrast the three power players and I think your articles have lots of good insight. I understand if you can't necessarily get a strong view of one player during a specific month. Just would like to hear your thoughts on Microsoft going forward into the holidays, seeing as how they're apparently the only company (currently) with hardware sales up YTD and had the largest revenue generator in October 09 (though, if you add in handhelds, they were below Nintendo and Sony).

Call of Duty: Metallica for 2011.

Call of Duty: Kill Em All Edition

[Freedom = $1.05]

I don't understand this new hatred of music rhythm games. It's not like there aren't other games to play. Although, with Neversoft working on GH until the end of time, we'll never get a Gun 2. =(

It's more people hating on Activision by proxy. People like the genre, they just hate the way it's being bleed out by one of the shittiest publishers ever. That, and I'm almost certain that gaf would do anything to purge the casual crowd out of existence.

[Mooreberg]

Music games more than any other genre should be disc releases once in a while, with a lot of DLC. I know that is how Harmonix handles it but "Guitar Hero" is the brand people know and they seemed to have successfully run it into the ground by releasing so many disc based versions that didn't need to be released. Guilt by association perhaps, because it doesn't seem like The Beatles Rock band is escaping the public indifference at this point.

The amazing thing is that if DJ Hero under performs as expected it will basically be up to MW2 to save Activision's ass this winter for console game sales. What else did they have coming out besides too many music games, MW2, MUA2, and Tony Hawk Ride?

[Cosmonaut X]

I think they can branch it off completely after this. And I wonder if Activision will try to make anther Call of Duty spin off.

Call of Duty: xxxxx - WWII scenarios.

Modern Warfare xx - Modern and near-future scenarios.

Call of Duty: Future - Far-future warfare.

Imagine: Call of Doodie - Military-themed spin-off for the lucrative baby-sim market.

Call of Duty Hero - Rhythm game version of CoD - defeat waves of respawning enemies by hitting coloured gems.

Ball of Duty - Revolutionary RPG/basketball hybrid where an ex-combat soldier must train a local team to take them to national level.

Call of Duty: Post-Modern Warfare - Lead Baudrillard and Foucault in an attack on reality itself.

[Rush2thestart]

Why not mention why you think PSP software is not doing well? IIRC, many NPD analysis gave a pretty clear reason as to why GTA: CW on the DS didn't sell well...

[faridmon]

Call of Duty: xxxxx - WWII scenarios. Modern Warfare xx - Modern and near-future scenarios. Call of Duty: Future - Far-future warfare. Imagine: Call of Doodie - Military-themed spin-off for the lucrative baby-sim market. Call of Duty Hero - Rhythm game version of CoD - defeat waves of respawning enemies by hitting coloured gems. Ball of Duty - Revolutionary RPG/basketball hybrid where an ex-combat soldier must train a local team to take them to national level. Call of Duty: Post-Modern Warfare - Lead Baudrillard and Foucault in an attack on reality itself.

which one is the exclusive Wii version?

[Struct09]

which one is the exclusive Wii version?

Just add the subtitle Reflex to each of those names

[Cosmonaut X]

which one is the exclusive Wii version?

Exclusive Wii version? What fantasy land are you living in? Treyarch are producing ports of Call of Duty, Ball of Duty and CoD: Post-Modern Warfare, and they're scheduled to produce a Modern Warfare port in 2011. Vicarious Visions are handling CoD: Hero (Mii compatibility included) and Activision are collaborating with Ubisoft Brazil on Imagine: CoD, exclusively for the DS.

Rumour has it that if MW2 does well in 2011 that Activision will be adding another half dozen members to Treyarch's dedicated Wii team to look at the possibility of producing an exclusive Wii CoD sometime in the next calendar year (although at least two members of the new team will be working on advanced credit-removal algorithms for future Treyarch releases).

[markatisu]

All this evidence that GTA CW on the PSP did not sell but yet no major articles dooming the PSP as a platform for hardcore games

Wonders how many "journalist" are just refusing to eat crow after what they said during the GTA CW DS release (instead of just making the justifiable claim that a top down GTA was not as popular)

[Parl]

Why not mention why you think PSP software is not doing well? IIRC, many NPD analysis gave a pretty clear reason as to why GTA: CW on the DS didn't sell well...

I think with how well proper 3D GTA has sold on PSP and how poorly Chinatown Wars has done on PSP, it's pretty damn obvious why it didn't sell on DS. It was inadvertedly designed to be niche.

As for why PSP software doesn't well in general, it's because despite low sales, some of them don't buy games either for not wanting to play games, piracy, or portable emulation.

[BattleMonkey]

All this evidence that GTA CW on the PSP did not sell but yet no major articles dooming the PSP as a platform for hardcore games Wonders how many "journalist" are just refusing to eat crow after what they said during the GTA CW DS release (instead of just making the justifiable claim that a top down GTA was not as popular)

More like no one cares since the psp is full of mature games already. It was a big issue for the DS version since mature games are not all that prevalent on the system. The whole thing was "lol no mature games for DS, look how bad this sold", when it really doesn't matter on PSP since it already is loaded with those types of games.

[speculawyer]

Thanks as always for your very good articles.

[DeaconKnowledge]

I think with how well proper 3D GTA has sold on PSP and how poorly Chinatown Wars has done on PSP, it's pretty damn obvious why it didn't sell on DS. It was inadvertedly designed to be niche. As for why PSP software doesn't well in general, it's because despite low sales, some of them don't buy games either for not wanting to play games, piracy, or portable emulation.

I'd say that's it pretty much up and down. Poor Chinatown Wars. My favourite GTA since San Andreas.

More like no one cares since the psp is full of mature games already. It was a big issue for the DS version since mature games are not all that prevalent on the system. The whole thing was "lol no mature games for DS, look how bad this sold", when it really doesn't matter on PSP since it already is loaded with those types of games.

That's REALLY specious reasoning.