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Javin98 · May 29, 2016

ps3ud0 said:
Sounds like a whole lot of hunches, assumptions, simplification and bias on both sides of that particular argument. The datas just too incomplete to really disregard one viewpoint over your own and vice versa...

ps3ud0 8)

Pretty much this. We really are getting nowhere and I would prefer it if we just let it go and stick to our own estimations.

Curufinwe · May 29, 2016

Bottom line is, MS won't give us actual numbers because they're so low.

Welfare · May 29, 2016

Javin98 said:
Tell you what, let's just agree to disagree and move on. It's clear that you don't want to back down from your stance and you don't plan on accepting other people's estimations.

I would accept your estimate if it took more into account than just "I don't believe these companies that have no reason to lie".

Keep in mind that you and I have been wrong many times, with you most recently being wrong about your April NPD predictions even with your "accurate historical data". I have no problems accepting your predictions and I hope you will do the same. But I will reply to this post with my own thoughts.

I'd admit to being wrong about this if there was more substantial evidence to why the US would still represent >60% of the XB1's sales.

And that historical data holds weight. April this year was slow as fuck on the hardware side, unfortunately.

As I said before, "over 60 million" from Take Two doesn't have to be necessarily accurate. They could simply round up to the nearest 5 million and say "over". Who's to stop them? Again, they are not obligated to share these numbers and no one will sue them over "false data". Unless these numbers come from the hardware makers themselves, I don't take them as infallible.

To argue this point is simply, why? Why would Take Two round up to the nearest 5 million and then say that there are "over" 60 million consoles? They gain absolutely nothing from saying this, or even lying about, and could have easily just said nothing. Would they really risk lying to shareholders, or are they trying to lie to themselves, wishing the market was actually over 60m? Or maybe they see the market has passed a milestone and they wanted to share it.

I guess this one is 50/50.

As for the 360, my point still stands. Its US:WW ratio was slightly over 50 in the favor of the US. Expecting the XB1 to have quite similar ratios doesn't make sense to me. Hell, the 360 was selling far better in Japan and as I said earlier, the 360 had a wider market share in Europe than the XB1 currently does. And how exactly do you expect the holiday sales in Europe to have similar boosts over normal months like in the US when Microsoft only has very aggressive deals in the latter?

57-58% is closer to 50% than 60%? :/

The 360 in Japan did sell a lot better than the XB1, but that doesn't matter. Other countries are performing better than the 360, such as the UK for one example.

Market share in Europe has nothing to do with how it's performing against the US, only how it performs against the PS4/Wii U in Europe.

Retailers make their own deals and cut the price as they see fit over in Europe. Microsoft doesn't touch the price there. Also, we know they provide similar boosts anyway since, again, post launch performance is very similar in the big 3 Euro countries to the US.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this.

Javin98 · May 29, 2016

Welfare said:
I would accept your estimate if it took more into account than just "I don't believe these companies that have no reason to lie".

I'd admit to being wrong about this if there was more substantial evidence to why the US would still represent >60% of the XB1's sales.

And that historical data holds weight. April this year was slow as fuck on the hardware side, unfortunately.

To argue this point is simply, why? Why would Take Two round up to the nearest 5 million and then say that there are "over" 60 million consoles? They gain absolutely nothing from saying this, or even lying about, and could have easily just said nothing. Would they really risk lying to shareholders, or are they trying to lie to themselves, wishing the market was actually over 60m? Or maybe they see the market has passed a milestone and they wanted to share it.

I guess this one is 50/50.

57-58% is closer to 50% than 60%? :/

The 360 in Japan did sell a lot better than the XB1, but that doesn't matter. Other countries are performing better than the 360, such as the UK for one example.

Market share in Europe has nothing to do with how it's performing against the US, only how it performs against the PS4/Wii U in Europe.

Retailers make their own deals and cut the price as they see fit over in Europe. Microsoft doesn't touch the price there. Also, we know they provide similar boosts anyway since, again, post launch performance is very similar in the big 3 Euro countries to the US.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this.

You see my point about you? I don't see your reasoning as believable either, but I accept your estimations and respect them. You, on the other hand, can't even accept mine. Similarly, I would admit to being wrong if we have more concrete evidence that the US ratio is below 60%. Take Two loses nothing by giving a larger than accurate estimation of the sales. It's not their hardware to sell. I have provided more reasons than simply "these companies have no reason to lie" but you just refuse to acknowledge them because it doesn't suit your estimations. So, yes, as I said, agree to disagree, I ain't got time for this.

Shin-Ra · Jun 1, 2016

AMD don't appear so confident in Xbone reaching 20M units yet.

Inuhanyou · Jun 1, 2016

Shin-Ra said:
AMD don't appear so confident in Xbone reaching 20M units yet.

It says 'over' there. XB1 has surely broken through 20M by this point.

The Last One · Jun 1, 2016

Shin-Ra said:
AMD don't appear so confident in Xbone reaching 20M units yet.

If PS4 is over 40 millions and Xbox One is definitely over 18 milion, then this over 50m seens like it's not that accurate because that would mean almost 60 millions.

Tallshortman · Jun 1, 2016

The Last One said:
If PS4 is over 40 millions and Xbox One is definitely over 18 milion, then this over 50m seens like it's not that accurate because that would mean almost 60 millions.

It says over 50 million which means it can be 58 million.

The Last One · Jun 1, 2016

Tallshortman said:
It says over 50 million which means it can be 58 million.

But usually they use "over" when it's not that far from the number. This may be not true in this particular case though.

IndoAssassin · Jun 1, 2016

If MS ever decides to announce shipped numbers for Xbox family during next Financial report, that means they will all be XB1 right considering MS has stopped manufacturing 360's now?

serversurfer · Jun 1, 2016

The Last One said:
But usually they use "over" when it's not that far from the number. This may be not true in this particular case though.

"Over 50M" could just mean they weren't able to say, "Over 60M."

mejin · Jun 1, 2016

Then, XB1 didn't break 20M yet?

Curufinwe · Jun 2, 2016

Inuhanyou said:
It says 'over' there. XB1 has surely broken through 20M by this point.

It says over 50M.

Randy Monk · Jun 2, 2016

Over 50 million could be anything between 50 million and 1 gillion

Ricky_R · Jun 2, 2016

Shin-Ra said:
AMD don't appear so confident in Xbone reaching 20M units yet.

That's not taking into account Xbones bought digital.

Interfectum · Jun 2, 2016

Ricky_R said:
That's not taking into account Xbones bought digital.

lol

KinofChaos · Jun 2, 2016

Welfare said:
I already said I'm throwing out that EA number because of the fact that it is being rounded due to them rounding the 7th gen number. Take Two on the other hand specifically said "over" 60 million. That is specific, and not a "around" or "close to", but specifically "over".

The 360 was more around a 50/50 split actually, with a slight lead for the US.

The Xbox One had 60.6% of its sales in the US at the end of 2013, compared to the sales of 12 other countries. There is plenty of proof that didn't change in favor of the US by even a slim margin as the UK, Germany, and France all experienced similar performance post launch as the US did. Other launch countries like Brazil, Canada, Ireland, Mexico, and Australia should have performed similarly as well, with the only ones deviating from the pack being Spain and Italy, and those are tiny enough to where they wouldn't affect the ratio THAT much.

"Holiday sales" happen world wide and don't affect just the US, and again, the UK, Germany, and France have very similar post launch performance to the US, so even with the 2014 price drop, sales performance post launch was still similar for those 3 countries.

So a similar ratio of ~60-61% for those 13 countries post launch means that with an additional 29 countries, the ratio is dropping. It's simple math.

Those countries might sell like "shit", but they do sell consoles, and all those sales add up. All those sales not in the US. Suggesting >60% of the XB1's sales continue to happen in the US is actually preposterous.

A tonne of flaws in your argument, the biggest using 360's ratio and applying it to x1. X1 is much more heavily slanted towards the US, 360 did way better in europe and asia then X1 is by a good margin.

Andvary · Jun 2, 2016

Randy Monk said:
Over 50 million could be anything between 50 million and 1 gillion

I don't know, missing the chance to say "Over 60 million!" ? not in a gillion years.

Javin98 · Jun 2, 2016

Shin-Ra said:
AMD don't appear so confident in Xbone reaching 20M units yet.

Hahaha, when was this pic even released? Recently? If it was recent, this pic just proves my point even further. Other companies besides Sony and Microsoft themselves aren't obligated to give accurate estimations. But saying "over 50 million" is just.....weird. At this point, the minimum sold through figure for the XB1 has to be 19 million.

Shin-Ra · Jun 2, 2016

Javin98 said:
Hahaha, when was this pic even released? Recently? If it was recent, this pic just proves my point even further. Other companies besides Sony and Microsoft themselves aren't obligated to give accurate estimations. But saying "over 50 million" is just.....weird. At this point, the minimum sold through figure for the XB1 has to be 19 million.

Less than 24 hours ago at AMDs Computex presentation.

DustyVonEric · Jun 2, 2016

Shin-Ra said:
Less than 24 hours ago at AMDs Computex presentation.

Daaaamn, that's very telling to me at least.

If Xbox One broke 20 million, surely AMD would have said over 60 million.

Javin98 · Jun 2, 2016

Shin-Ra said:
Less than 24 hours ago at AMDs Computex presentation.

Huh, very strange to use "over 50 million" then. Shouldn't "over 55 million" be much closer to the actual number? In any case, the fact that AMD didn't say "over 60 million" makes me believe that the XB1 indeed hasn't crossed 20 million sold through.

karasu · Jun 2, 2016

arbok26 said:
I've got 7 games right now for the PS4. Actually I think that software/hardware ratio is kind of disappointing.

I had way more than 7 games on the PS2/360/PS3 after 2 years.

That speaks more to your personal feelings than it does anything concrete about the console.

Daredevil.shark · Jun 2, 2016

Javin98 said:
Huh, very strange to use "over 50 million" then. Shouldn't "over 55 million" be much closer to the actual number? In any case, the fact that AMD didn't say "over 60 million" makes me believe that the XB1 indeed hasn't crossed 20 million sold through.

Exactly. If they mentioned 60 million then we could assume Xbox One crossed 20 million. I also think Xbox One has yet to cross 20 million mark.

Loudninja · Jun 3, 2016

Still cant believe its at 40 million already.

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