...but why then poison nin? Surely that makes no sense. Makes me think that then the actual kill target would be still in the future. But then scum would be willingly risking an additional cycle where their poisoner could be killed.
so this then would be really fucking meta. they would kill nin because nobody would expect them to kill nin.
Guys, we are thinking way too hard on this. Here's everything that's happened so far.
Stanley gets poisoned
I cure him on N2
To the surprise of everyone, I'm still alive on D3
The only theory I've seen make sense is that the poisoner is neutral and scum is keeping me alive so I can help their guys unwittingly. But if that's the case.....then Stanely isn't automatically confirmed town. Neither is nin.
I get the days confused btw, that's what I get by writing it with complete sentences.
N1 - no poison.
D2 - scum Stan claims poison, scum Bronx claims doctor.
N2 - scum poison non-scum nin.
D3 - nin claims poison, Stan claims heal, Bronx gets the cred.
N3 - no poison cuz 1-shot.
D4 - nin dies because Bronx was a liar, 3rd scum claims poison, Bronx explains that his protection was one time only and he must've been blocked or something.
Scum keep up the facade as long as town believe them. Might require repeating the fake poisonings on themselves and something like: Stan: "oh noes am poison help me super doctor bronx man".
Problem with that is Bronx strongly hinted he couldn't be blocked so in that scenario the scum story breaks down when nin dies. Although I am not ruling it out.
This day seems like it is going to be a real struggle with activity.
Problem with that is Bronx strongly hinted he couldn't be blocked so in that scenario the scum story breaks down when nin dies. Although I am not ruling it out.
This day seems like it is going to be a real struggle with activity.
Yeah, that'd be one of the questionable parts of the play. Since Bronx wasn't exact about his protective abilities, scum could try to wiggle their way out of it. But overall it is a very complex scenario. I find it hard to believe it as long as simpler possibilities exist.
...but why then poison nin? Surely that makes no sense. Makes me think that then the actual kill target would be still in the future. But then scum would be willingly risking an additional cycle where their poisoner could be killed.
so this then would be really fucking meta. they would kill nin because nobody would expect them to kill nin.
I think we can be sure Scum are kicking our arses right now since nearly halfway through day3 their are only 5 votes and no one is push a strong Scum read.
Re-reading Crab's long post these two points struck me as the strongest possibilities.
Kawl votes squidyj. This is a critical vote because this is the vote that really begins to push squidyj ahead of me. Again, squidy is town, fmpov I am town, and the only real other contender is Swamped. Is Kawl protecting Swamped? Plausible, I think, coming directly after Kalors vote. I have this bookmarked as something to watch. In 1322, as well, Kawl fos Bronx, but doesnt vote for Bronx? Why? Bronx was definitely still a possible wagon at this point, sitting level with Swamped a vote behind me and two votes behind squidyj. It is possible to worry about ties, but 20 minutes from deadline is a long time. Why fos someone you then dont pursue? I dont like this at all, and I definitely am watching Kawl more closely now, especially how Kawl acts towards other strong players like Sorian.
Verelios votes Kalor. So, squidyj is clearly taking off. At this point, scum can start relaxing in terms of trying to protect other scum as town have the lead, and instead they want to look for ways to not be on the town wagon. Picking a randomer for a plausible but not super-strongly argued reason is like scum end-day 101. Splinter calls Verelios out on this, which is right and didnt strike me as a w/w observation because normally it would sort of force Verelios to respond and could land Verelios in hot water more than w/w attacks are normally willing to do.
Guys, we are thinking way too hard on this. Here's everything that's happened so far.
Stanley gets poisoned
I cure him on N2
To the surprise of everyone, I'm still alive on D3
The only theory I've seen make sense is that the poisoner is neutral and scum is keeping me alive so I can help their guys unwittingly. But if that's the case.....then Stanely isn't automatically confirmed town. Neither is nin.
Poisoner being neutral, seems likely but it is worrying. Another threat to town to be eliminated. No idea, who could be the poisoner.
Flat Earth Pandas, are you voting for me for the same reasons as yesterday or based on something new.
unvote
I don't love the reasoning for why Bronx is not dead, but it seems to be that scum thought keeping him alive would result in a lynch with his roleclaim yesterday. Stan is still alive and confirmed that he got a message about being cured. That all checks out if take Bronx and Stan at face value, and nin now that he is claiming poisoning.
Going to make a reads list either tonight or midday tomorrow, may be useless to others but it will help me collect my thoughts on two days worth of posts.
So far I've been pushing Vere, Sorian and WAMD, whilst going back and forth of Swamped a lot. I would be happy with a lynch of any of them.
Kalor is a slightly strange choice of NK, just because he wasn't a town leader or a widely read town player. Not sure if it tells us too much though.
Crab had been pushing Vere and Swamped as scum fairly hard. Trying to work out if that's because there's scum there or if we're trying to be led into lynching them gets a bit WIFOM though.
Still got a few invisibles. Hard to recall much of anything (not talking just analysis, don't even remember any real pushes or reads) from TWE, OA/FEP, and much as I hate to say it, my old pal acohrs.
Still not sure if Faddy is scum or just aggressive town with terrible choices in targets.
I'd rather evaluate the poison stuff later. By then we'd surely have more people to consider, so either more of the scum team get dragged into their gambit or there was no gambit in the first place.
So far I've been pushing Vere, Sorian and WAMD, whilst going back and forth of Swamped a lot. I would be happy with a lynch of any of them.
Kalor is a slightly strange choice of NK, just because he wasn't a town leader or a widely read town player. Not sure if it tells us too much though.
Crab had been pushing Vere and Swamped as scum fairly hard. Trying to work out if that's because there's scum there or if we're trying to be led into lynching them gets a bit WIFOM though.
Still got a few invisibles. Hard to recall much of anything (not talking just analysis, don't even remember any real pushes or reads) from TWE, OA/FEP, and much as I hate to say it, my old pal acohrs.
Still not sure if Faddy is scum or just aggressive town with terrible choices in targets.
He seems... I'm not sure if this is quite the right way of putting it, but a bit like he try to derail discussions by steering them towards less useful areas, and generally I just get the feeling that he's trying to obfuscate where possible.
He seems... I'm not sure if this is quite the right way of putting it, but a bit like he try to derail discussions by steering them towards less useful areas, and generally I just get the feeling that he's trying to obfuscate where possible.
I'm feeling similar but with so few people contributing I feel like if Sorian was a mis-lynch he would be a big loss to town. But then why haven't scum targeted him as being a top town player?
He seems... I'm not sure if this is quite the right way of putting it, but a bit like he try to derail discussions by steering them towards less useful areas, and generally I just get the feeling that he's trying to obfuscate where possible.
I'm feeling similar but with so few people contributing I feel like if Sorian was a mis-lynch he would be a big loss to town. But then why haven't scum targeted him as being a top town player?
This is also obtuse. There have been two NKs and one of them was clearly not trying to target "top town"
-----
Let's talk though CCS. According to you, you've been pushing me. When was that exactly? Cause the extent of your "push" is you put me as scummy on reads lists and then promptly run off and shout at someone else who you expect not to shout back at you.
This is the same jank people threw at me in DR. If I find your conversations to be boring, I'm going to go somewhere else.
This is also obtuse. There have been two NKs and one of them was clearly not trying to target "top town"
-----
Let's talk though CCS. According to you, you've been pushing me. When was that exactly? Cause the extent of your "push" is you put me as scummy on reads lists and then promptly run off and shout at someone else who you expect not to shout back at you.
The bottom part is questions at CCS, not you. Not exactly word salad either. A very particular question.
Anyway, I guess? That's a hard sell to make when there are still 20 people in the game. If me or another high poster is still around sub 10 players then maybe you'd have something but bringing it up now is equivalent to flinging shit at the wall.
I see no point in discussing this poison business further. Neither Bronx, Stan, or nin are cleared, but as long as more people are alive, it's harder for scum/neutrals to win.
Votes are fluid, was more of a prod, not working though since he hasn't posted.
Kyan could do more but I get no scum vibes from him.
Kawl always seems busy but nothing sticks out.
I expected more from Sorian if he's town and his D2 vote on Blarg was terrible. Also it's still a bit early but his continued survival will be an issue.
Blarg has done nothing all game. Town Blarg gives us something.
Votes are fluid, was more of a prod, not working though since he hasn't posted.
Kyan could do more but I get no scum vibes from him.
Kawl always seems busy but nothing sticks out.
I expected more from Sorian if he's town and his D2 vote on Blarg was terrible. Also it's still a bit early but his continued survival will be an issue.
Blarg has done nothing all game. Town Blarg gives us something.
Hey hody hey ladies and gentlemen. Just got done driving from Dallas to Houston. I know...inexcusable.
This week is jam packed with a vacation for me. Headed to Arizona. Will be here for most of tomorrow and Monday (when I'm not the one driving).
I see I have some votes on me and I read as too why. My explanation for not being active sounded silly 🤡 and scummy to some. Okay. Don't expect everyone to be happy about it. It's not like me playing now takes place in a different time then me playing then. Time doesn't change.
Curious as to why the eff Nin was poisoned and why the eff is Bronx alive? Do we know explicitly that there is a poisoner going around? Do we have actual concrete evidence that someone is indeed poisoned or has been? It's essentially a whole game of "what if...'s" so imma put out a "what if".
What if: there is no poisoner? What if: there is no poisonee? What if: this is a highly elaborate scheme by the Mafia and people are getting "poisoned" to make them seem like they're town?
Stanley was poisoned 2 nights ago (?) and he's not dead for 2 reasons:
- Bronx cured him!
you go Bronx!
- Stanley was never poisoned!!! 😲
Bronx claims he's the poison doctor!!
why tho
and he's not deadddd(???) for 2 reasons:
- Scum is dumb
- Bronx IS Scum and not a Dr. 😰
BUT WAIT?! Nin is poisoned now. What zee eff? Why tho? Because maybe...he's scum?
Disclaimer:
maybe none of this is true and it's just a filler post
WHADDYA SAY?!?!?
Honestly. The biggest mystery now is how tf is Bronx still alive and Kalor (who is just...idk) is dead? Would've been an incredible night for Scum if they killed Bronx. Because then if he was the poison docteur than everyone that gets poisoned would die...
hmm so how to proceed from here when zzz is the name of the weekend
mabby look at people who is scum and spooky and vote them
ok seems good
It is hard to judge the Vere train because we dont know Veres alignment. In addition the train really started only 30 minutes or so before the day end what makes it even harder to read. Crabs case on the other hand is completely different, there we know the alignment of the lynched and the votes piled up quite early, what should mean that some good discussion and/or exchange of opinions happened before committing to the votes.
iirc the votes did not come up like that but hey thats what shouldve happened imo so that can be used as the ideal and actual voteposts can be compared against that
Bronx-Man - Bronx gets the initial vote in very early in the middle of his Poison Doc claim. Notable that Bronx votes for Crab before Crab votes for Bronx. Some tens of posts later Bronx seems very certain about his read on Crab. The actual argument against Crab comes a bit later and goes like this: What about him is town to you? Disappearing for half of D1, coming back to make a dumb vote on me, taking credit for every inactive coming back at the same time, focusing on Squidy out of nowhere? This is town to you? In addition, Bronx feels that the fact that the Squidy train was able to overtake the Crab train in 40 minutes or so makes Crab look scummy.
The arguments work somewhat, even while being a bit on the surface level. Day two and Crabs playstyle being what it is makes this understandable. What rises up on the re-read though is that Bronx does very little else than defend himself and argue for Crabs lynch and in the case of the latter, I feel he couldve done it more. Were this a parallel world where Bronx did not claim what he did I could see myself voting for him.
Guys, we are thinking way too hard on this. Here's everything that's happened so far.
Stanley gets poisoned
I cure him on N2
To the surprise of everyone, I'm still alive on D3
The only theory I've seen make sense is that the poisoner is neutral and scum is keeping me alive so I can help their guys unwittingly. But if that's the case.....then Stanely isn't automatically confirmed town. Neither is nin.
I agree that being poisoned isn't indicative of alignment, just that I'm more assured about your claim after Nin said he was poisoned. There shouldn't be much possibility that all three of you are working together, especially on the off chance one of you flips.
Problem with that is Bronx strongly hinted he couldn't be blocked so in that scenario the scum story breaks down when nin dies. Although I am not ruling it out.
This day seems like it is going to be a real struggle with activity.
I'm not so convinced Bronx's claim is 100% true. For now, I believe he can cure poison, though I'm a little skeptical at how curing is unblockable (what about roles like Swamped claimed? Which takes priority?)
I find it very unlikely for Bronx, Nin and Stanley to all be in on this together. Unless Stanley lied about being cured/poisoned, or Nin did which are both pretty nonsensical scenarios.
Hey hody hey ladies and gentlemen. Just got done driving from Dallas to Houston. I know...inexcusable.
This week is jam packed with a vacation for me. Headed to Arizona. Will be here for most of tomorrow and Monday (when I'm not the one driving).
I see I have some votes on me and I read as too why. My explanation for not being active sounded silly 🤡 and scummy to some. Okay. Don't expect everyone to be happy about it. It's not like me playing now takes place in a different time then me playing then. Time doesn't change.
Curious as to why the eff Nin was poisoned and why the eff is Bronx alive? Do we know explicitly that there is a poisoner going around? Do we have actual concrete evidence that someone is indeed poisoned or has been? It's essentially a whole game of "what if...'s" so imma put out a "what if".
What if: there is no poisoner? What if: there is no poisonee? What if: this is a highly elaborate scheme by the Mafia and people are getting "poisoned" to make them seem like they're town?
Stanley was poisoned 2 nights ago (?) and he's not dead for 2 reasons:
- Bronx cured him!
you go Bronx!
- Stanley was never poisoned!!! 😲
Bronx claims he's the poison doctor!!
why tho
and he's not deadddd(???) for 2 reasons:
- Scum is dumb
- Bronx IS Scum and not a Dr. 😰
BUT WAIT?! Nin is poisoned now. What zee eff? Why tho? Because maybe...he's scum?
Disclaimer:
maybe none of this is true and it's just a filler post
WHADDYA SAY?!?!?
Honestly. The biggest mystery now is how tf is Bronx still alive and Kalor (who is just...idk) is dead? Would've been an incredible night for Scum if they killed Bronx. Because then if he was the poison docteur than everyone that gets poisoned would die...
A lot of people driving long distances these days. I do tentatively believe there is a poisoner because if this is a scum trick then 3 scummates would have exposed themselves over an honestly...useless gambit, which I don't see happening. The only other point of caution is if they're a neutral team and that's a low chance for me since it would be an odd way of attracting attention.
By the way, what do you think of Crab flipping town Kalor?
Swamped - Swampeds vote comes soon after Bronxs. Essentially, Swamped had two things against Crab: her initial scum read about Crab complaining about things and Crabs case against her, what she feels is weak. She also spends considerable time tying other things to Crab though not all her content is about the pincer-monster. Eventually, she claims x-shot commuter and claims she used a shot on n1 because she likes to get value out of her ability.
Hmm. In several posts she comes up as overly defensive, almost as if she was justifying her plays already for the eventual Crab town flip. Parts of post #2312 too feel very defensive to me. Her commuter claim has some issues with it (why did she use a shot on n1?) and it is a easy claim for scum to make. Yet to her defense, if she is town she is playing her claim well if I am reading it right. Reading all this now, I get the feeling that I am not perfectly convinced by this case. Much of my doubt comes from her claim and how it could work were she town. But without flipping her the claim is very difficult to prove so should it even be considered a defense?
A backup candidate. I wouldnt oppose voting for her should my preferred candidate not make it. Dunno though what THE candidate is yet.
Faddy - Faddys vote is daring CCS to show if he is willing to back up his own reads. At the start of D2, Faddy is reading CCS as scum and the vote on Crab comes after he speculates about a Crab-CCS scum team. That specific scum team stems from the fact that CCS switched his vote on d1 from Crab to Swamped, what Faddy saw being a scum protective vote switch.
Faddy, why did you prefer lynching Crab over CCS if you considered them both scum? Did you ever offer any other reason why you considered Crab scummy apart from the CCS connection you saw?
Re: this sea creature that wields its pincers as weapons of mass destruction could be an essential part of a fast way of transportation that would involve great distances traveled at high speeds using a magnificent machine on rails or perhaps it should be a single rail because monorail
Blargonaut - Crab was the muscle and Blarg considered him scum. The comment about the timing of Swampeds claim is partially correct. #2056 is something.
So umm. Blarg, what is your opinion about the situation? Who should we be looking at and why? Who do you think is scum? I wouldnt mind the long teased read list either.
Re: from b to a on the rails with your conductor, Barc.
nin1000 - Gut vote, trusts Swamped more. Notable that nin never voted on d1. Says inactives arent usually scum, I disagree. Lots of buddying up to Bronx. Claims to be poisoned now.
Hmm, if we should desire to see nin dead for any reason, should we lynch him today or see if he dies to the poison or not?
I would love to hear some more from swamped, since she was also a lynch train but somehow she did not really participate today in any discussion. Several people are now getting putting votes on her ( fair point btw ).
For me it seemed as if scum steered the train away from her in the last hours of the past day phase. Town caught up on it and are now putting some heat on her.
Nin, you mention that you thought that scum steered the train away from Swamped on d1. I imagine you considered her scum at that point? If so, what made you make vote for Crab instead of Swamped? Where are you standing now in terms of your reads?
- Splinter: He has been trying to move the game forward. Has been discussing the game and giving theories and reads. Seems genuine. He made the vote that killed Crab over Vere but both of them had been acting really scummy. I didn't minded if any of them was killed so I can blame Splinter for it.
- Gorlak: Gryvan was acting really scummy, coasting and giving really weak reads but Gorlak has been discussing the game and questioning people. I feel a lot more confident about that spot.
- Kyan: Besides all the shitposting with Blarg day one and the childish fight with Vere day 2, Kyan has been acting really proactive during the game, analyzing how the game works.
- Sorian: I'm still leaning to town for Sorian. He is one of the most participating players in the game. I'm always worried about Sorian if he survives to long in the game but that's just meta. It has nothing to do with the game.
Top Scum:
- Faddy: I have said multiple times why I think Faddy is scum.
- TWE: All that excuse about being a more active scum is really scummy, and when I proded about it his answer was lol. He has been giving us really weak reads all game along.
- Acohrs: He was acting really aggressive day one, more than usual. Day 2 he made a really small presence, almost dissapearing. Most of his post are really coasting.
- CCS: This one goes with Acohrs. CCS has been coasting a lot throught out the game. There's a lot of shitposting. It raised some red flags day one when some questions where directed to CCS and it was Acohrs who answered. When they were called out they went really defensive.
Some thoughts on a couple of other players:
- Burb: Burb has been a non presence during the game. He hasn't posted much and been participating even less. He made a couple of mistakes at the start of day 2. I'm expecting a lot more of town Burb.
- Kawl: I don't know what to think about Kawl. Usually Kawl post big text with actual insight about the game but several of them seemed really prefabricated. Still a null to me.
- Blarg: I still don't know what to do with Blarg. Usually when does Blarg stop being Blarg and start being cooperative?
- Bronx: I still think something is wrong about all that poison thing. The claim had a lot suspicious things. I can't stop the feeling that something is wrong there. But I think we should drop it while the poisoner is still alive.
- Splinter: He has been trying to move the game forward. Has been discussing the game and giving theories and reads. Seems genuine. He made the vote that killed Crab over Vere but both of them had been acting really scummy. I didn't minded if any of them was killed so I can blame Splinter for it.
- Gorlak: Gryvan was acting really scummy, coasting and giving really weak reads but Gorlak has been discussing the game and questioning people. I feel a lot more confident about that spot.
- Kyan: Besides all the shitposting with Blarg day one and the childish fight with Vere day 2, Kyan has been acting really proactive during the game, analyzing how the game works.
- Sorian: I'm still leaning to town for Sorian. He is one of the most participating players in the game. I'm always worried about Sorian if he survives to long in the game but that's just meta. It has nothing to do with the game.
Top Scum:
- Faddy: I have said multiple times why I think Faddy is scum.
- TWE: All that excuse about being a more active scum is really scummy, and when I proded about it his answer was lol. He has been giving us really weak reads all game along.
- Acohrs: He was acting really aggressive day one, more than usual. Day 2 he made a really small presence, almost dissapearing. Most of his post are really coasting.
- CCS: This one goes with Acohrs. CCS has been coasting a lot throught out the game. There's a lot of shitposting. It raised some red flags day one when some questions where directed to CCS and it was Acohrs who answered. When they were called out they went really defensive.
Some thoughts on a couple of other players:
- Burb: Burb has been a non presence during the game. He hasn't posted much and been participating even less. He made a couple of mistakes at the start of day 2. I'm expecting a lot more of town Burb.
- Kawl: I don't know what to think about Kawl. Usually Kawl post big text with actual insight about the game but several of them seemed really prefabricated. Still a null to me.
- Blarg: I still don't know what to do with Blarg. Usually when does Blarg stop being Blarg and start being cooperative?
- Bronx: I still think something is wrong about all that poison thing. The claim had a lot suspicious things. I can't stop the feeling that something is wrong there. But I think we should drop it while the poisoner is still alive.
