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Derwind
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(10-07-2017, 10:45 PM)
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Originally Posted by Two Words

Like, what does China even get out of North Korea?

A buffer zone.
kmax
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(10-07-2017, 10:45 PM)
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Originally Posted by tr4nce 26

I have a question.

How should a president act about the North Korea crisis?

Not threatening with nuclear war through twitter would be a start.
minor effort
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(10-07-2017, 10:47 PM)
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Originally Posted by tr4nce 26

I have a question.

How should a president act about the North Korea crisis?

By not taking it to Twitter, for starters.
sphagnum
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(10-07-2017, 10:51 PM)
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Originally Posted by Two Words

Like, what does China even get out of North Korea?

It's a puppet state to prevent the US from having troops on the Chinese border. However, there has been some open criticism of this policy in Chinese newspapers (indicating the central government might be rethinking it) that this is counterproductive as a united Korea would be good for business in the long term and could lead to a withdraw of US troops if the united Korean government (which China would of course try to influence) demanded it since the standoff with the north would be gone.
The One and Done™
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(10-07-2017, 10:52 PM)
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This dude is such a fucking clown. He can go fuck himself.
Giganteus
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(10-07-2017, 10:57 PM)
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Originally Posted by Neith

No war has started yet at least. I think it depends on if NK starts launching more nukes.

Look for an ICBM launch on or around October 10th/18th Might be October 8th, actually. It's the 20th anniversary of Kim Jong Il being elected General Secretary of the Korean Workers Party. that successfully goes farther than their previous launches. That might be enough pretext Donald/the government needs, at this point, before things like military assets start actually moving around.

I'm not as confident as most are that a clear mass evacuation will take place before an attack starts, as the US would strongly prefer to attack with surprise before NK mobilizes. Just throwing that out there as a possibility.
Last edited by Giganteus; 10-08-2017 at 01:42 AM.
ebullientprism
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(10-07-2017, 10:58 PM)
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He is gonna escalate this to violence cause his approval ratings are low. Its the go to thing to do.
Bad_Boy
time to take my meds
(10-07-2017, 11:00 PM)
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I hope wolfenstein 2 gives a boss that looks similar to trump.
Green Yoshi
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(10-07-2017, 11:10 PM)
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Originally Posted by LookAtMeGo

This war will have the greatest ratings.

You could be right.

The USA will win the war against North Korea very quickly and everything else won't matter to Trump.
SporeCrawler
Member
(10-07-2017, 11:13 PM)

Originally Posted by Kimawolf

Worry about the millions in South Korea. Idiots like him and Lindsdy Graham underestimated or dont care about SK victims of said attack.

probably this. fuck this shit.
Kimawolf
Member
(10-07-2017, 11:13 PM)
So after we see a million plus die U.S., China and Russia split NK and we have a weird triangle on the peninsula with nukes.
Game-Biz
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(10-07-2017, 11:17 PM)
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If Trump is making me anxious here in the US, I can't imagine how South Koreans are feeling right now. God, I hate this man so much.
Abstrusity
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(10-07-2017, 11:22 PM)
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WE might be able to parley this into a "no nuclear weapons, period." thing.

See, where normally the Realist view of international relations holds a good amount of water, such that "nuclear weapons are irrational to use across the board, so the threat of nuclear weapons at the end of failed diplomacy or desperate war makes diplomacy all the better," when an actor involved is irrational, we can't rely on rational choices being the ones they will take.

If the US takes a step back after Trump is gone (and I don't care how), and says "Look at Trump, if any leader half as crazy as him were to become our president or the leader or any nuclear country again, we might not be this lucky."

Then a nuclear non-proliferation treaty with the majority of the world might be able to be reached. The last steps would be to remove them from North Korea.

Wishful thinking, I know. But we cannot live like this.

Originally Posted by tr4nce 26

I have a question.

How should a president act about the North Korea crisis?

First, not getting into the war of words with them Trump is feeding to their propaganda by this back and forth.

Second, actual diplomacy conducted in good faith either through China or an intermediary

Third, apply pressure to China. They are the biggest enablers and supporters of NK.
astroturfing
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(10-07-2017, 11:28 PM)
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everytime i think of Trump and nuclear weapons, i'm reminded of this story from last year and wonder if it's true...

an excerpt:

The allegation emerged as Mr Scarborough was interviewing Michael Hayden, who was Director of the CIA and the National Security Agency under President George W. Bush.

He asked Mr Hayden if any of his peers were advising Mr Trump on national security and foreign policy. Mr Hayden replied: "None."

Mr Scarborough then said: "I have to follow up on that...and I'll be very careful here.

"Several months ago a foreign policy expert, on an international level, went to advise Donald Trump, and three times he (Mr Trump) asked about the use of nuclear weapons.

"Three times he asked. At one point 'If we have them, why can't we use them?' He asked three times in an hour briefing 'Why can't we use nuclear weapons?'."

The former CIA Director said he was "very concerned" by how "erratic" Mr Trump seemed.


we really might be quite fucked.
brian577
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(10-07-2017, 11:29 PM)
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Originally Posted by Dubbedinenglish

First, not getting into the war of words with them Trump is feeding to their propaganda by this back and forth.

Second, actual diplomacy conducted in good faith either through China or an intermediary

Third, apply pressure to China. They are the biggest enablers and supporters of NK.

Already happening. We know there are direct lines of communication between the US and NK. Tillerson has confirmed as such. They just don't seem to be interested in negotiation, at least not until they believe they're in a position of strength.
Last edited by brian577; 10-07-2017 at 11:31 PM.
maquiladora
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(10-07-2017, 11:31 PM)
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Don't get sucked in by this empty bluster.
Kinyou
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(10-07-2017, 11:33 PM)
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Does he still not realise what a war would mean for south Korea? Even a piece of shit like Steve Bannon knows that it's not an option

Originally Posted by brian577

Already happening. We know there direct lines of communication between the US and NK. Tillerson has confirmed as such. They just don't seem to be interested in negotiation, at least not until they believe they're in a position of strength.

We have the President on Twitter undermining these secret negotiations because he is in between golf holes. Tillerson also is running a completely understaffed and underfunded State Department, again hurting the scope of diplomatic efforts (there still isn't a S. Korean ambassador). There also isn't a regional component to these talks, it's one to one which is not as useful as past times where it was the entire regional states involved in forging a diplomatic path.

Second Trump isn't pressuring China, he is giving them free reign which is the opposite of American interests. China isn't on the US's side here, they are wanting this as an opportunity to flex further regional control. If they succeed here, they will be using NK as a pawn in the S. China sea claims and disputed territory.
Tahnit
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(10-07-2017, 11:38 PM)
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So he can’t Declare war without congress right?
Tamanon
Professional Bastard
(10-07-2017, 11:38 PM)
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Originally Posted by Tahnit

So he can’t Declare war without congress right?

Declare? No

Start via military strike? Yes. Can't put that genie back in its bottle.
Zolo
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(10-07-2017, 11:39 PM)
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Originally Posted by Tahnit

So he can’t Declare war without congress right?

Pretty sure we're still "technically" at war in this situation.
Watch Da Birdie
I buy cakes for myself on my birthday it's not weird lots of people do it I bet
(10-07-2017, 11:39 PM)
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I love the juxtaposition between "only one thing will work!" and then "thank you for your support!"
Mivey
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(10-07-2017, 11:40 PM)
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Originally Posted by Derwind

A buffer zone.

This made a lot of sense for the China of the 1950s, not so much for the behemoth of the 21st century. I mean, first of all, the US wouldn't be able to put them on the border without a good excuse (technically North and South are still at war, that technicality wouldn't excuse such an aggression against China.), and even if they did, it's not like they would need fear an invasion. You don't invade your most important business partner, who also happens to have quite a sizable army, navy and air force. It would be a huge drawn out conflict that would devastate the world economy, most of all the US itself.
Last edited by Mivey; 10-07-2017 at 11:43 PM.
SaviourMK2
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(10-07-2017, 11:43 PM)
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The insane part about this whole thing, it's being flared by two people who have no business running anything and have the IQ of a dead fish.
Majine
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(10-07-2017, 11:44 PM)
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Originally Posted by tr4nce 26

I have a question.

How should a president act about the North Korea crisis?

There is no easy solution but I think the basic premise is that an ultimate resolution to the North Korean regime must come from within.

- Ignore the threats by North Korea
- Push for both China and Russia to say yes to stronger sanctions, "A nuclear power on the korean peninsula is a serious threat to the stability in the region"
- When they are finally backed into a corner, offer to negotiate in exchange for nuclear disarmament.

Point 3 is a longshot tho...
Shauni
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(10-07-2017, 11:48 PM)
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Originally Posted by sphagnum

It's a puppet state to prevent the US from having troops on the Chinese border. However, there has been some open criticism of this policy in Chinese newspapers (indicating the central government might be rethinking it) that this is counterproductive as a united Korea would be good for business in the long term and could lead to a withdraw of US troops if the united Korean government (which China would of course try to influence) demanded it since the standoff with the north would be gone.

NK is a lot of things, but it's definitely not a puppet state. As this situation has shown, China's overall control of NK is far from absolute
whitemex88
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(10-07-2017, 11:51 PM)
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I feel like all this talking by him publicly is only going to give NK more incentive to strike first.
Eila
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(10-07-2017, 11:55 PM)
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Maybe it's not the best time to be in Los Angeles.
Zolo
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(10-07-2017, 11:55 PM)
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Originally Posted by whitemex88

I feel like all this talking by him publicly is only going to give NK more incentive to strike first.

Yeah. Keep in mind that Trump's already said that the US won't strike first.
Kevin
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(10-07-2017, 11:55 PM)
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It is beginning to really look like Trump intentionally plans on starting a war with North Korea which may result in the lives of potentially millions lost. This looks intentional at this point as even someone as dumb as Trump has to realize this.

So the question shifts to, why? Why start a major war? Would he really start a war to shift attention away from the Russia story? Is the lives of potentially millions worth the sacrifice to Trump?
Nohar
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(10-07-2017, 11:58 PM)
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Originally Posted by Zolo

Yeah. Keep in mind that Trump's already said that the US won't strike first.

And we all know how quickly Trump can change his tune.

He is going to start a war for all the wrong reasons, but most of all to satisfy his ego.

A war, which will devastate lands for generations if nuclear weapons are used. To satisfy his ego.

A war, which will kill countless people, and ruin the lives of countless others, most likely civilians from the north-south Korea border. To satisfy his ego.

A war, which could spark an humongous conflict, embroiling a lot of countries per virtue of international treaties, which could make everything aforementioned worse. To satisfy his ego.

Please. This has to stop.
Oriel
(10-08-2017, 12:00 AM)
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Originally Posted by JustenP88

Looking forward to all the smug pricks coming in here rolling their eyes with the "this is normal for the NK thing, you idiots" bullshit.

I don't know if there's a GAF stereotype I dislike more and I was a BernieBro last year.

Grow up. What was common before was for NK to fire off some missiles and many posters here would lose their fucking minds until it was pointed out they had done this before. Nothing wrong with providing some context to the geopolitically unawares amongst us.

No-one is claiming what Trump is suggesting now is in anyway "normal". Nothing he does is normal. If anything Kim Jong Un is the rational actor here.
astroturfing
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(10-08-2017, 12:03 AM)
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Originally Posted by SaviourMK2

The insane part about this whole thing, it's being flared by two people who have no business running anything and have the IQ of a dead fish.

didn't Kim Jong-un study in Europe though? he's probably not that dumb. Trump though...
SaviourMK2
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(10-08-2017, 12:07 AM)
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Originally Posted by astroturfing

didn't Kim Jong-un study in Europe though? he's probably not that dumb. Trump though...

I don't know, I never gave a shit about North Korea until that worthless maggot in office was elected.
Majine
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(10-08-2017, 12:10 AM)
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Originally Posted by astroturfing

didn't Kim Jong-un study in Europe though? he's probably not that dumb. Trump though...

More importantly, I don't think KJU has that much power over his country. He's a front figure, an heir to the throne set in motion by his grandfather. He's an ideal to sell to the people.

The real people in power are probably the top military brass.
Oriel
(10-08-2017, 12:14 AM)
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Originally Posted by astroturfing

didn't Kim Jong-un study in Europe though? he's probably not that dumb. Trump though...

KJU is more rational than many give him credit for. He and the NK leadership have seen what happens to America's enemies if they don't have the muscle to back up their threats. Gaddafi, Saddam, Assad (work in progress). NK has likely survived so many decades without any attack from the US precisely because of its unpredictable and mad-dog like behaviour.

The logical next step for Pyongyang was always going to be nukes. And they'll end up being allowed to keep them and everyone will learn to live with this new reality. Just like the Soviets under Stalin getting the Bomb in '49 and Chinese under Mao in '64.

Originally Posted by Majine

More importantly, I don't think KJU has that much power over his country. He's a front figure, an heir to the throne set in motion by his grandfather. He's an ideal to sell to the people.

The real people in power are probably the top military brass.

Quite possible but we honestly don't know. The glaring dearth of any real intelligence about North Korea's political and military structures is pretty astonishing. Denis Rodman probably gleaned more intel on KJU during his trip to NK than anything the CIA could have managed.
Last edited by Oriel; 10-08-2017 at 12:18 AM.
Zolo
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(10-08-2017, 12:15 AM)
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Originally Posted by Oriel

KJU is more rational than many give him credit for. He and the NK leadership have seen what happens to America's enemies if they don't have the muscle to back up their threats. Gaddafi, Saddam, Assad (work in progress). NK has likely survived so many decades without any attack from the US precisely because of its unpredictable and mad-dog like behaviour.

More due to its location and treaty with China.
Oriel
(10-08-2017, 12:25 AM)
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Originally Posted by Zolo

More due to its location and treaty with China.

Certainly some truth to that but that hasn't stopped the US bombing other countries with closr relations to rival superpowers; such as the NATO campaign against Russian ally Yugoslavia and US airstrikes on Assad positions in Syria despite having a mutual defence treaty with Russia and hosting actively deployed Russian military forces engaged in combat operations.

Despite direct actions by NK against the US such as Pueblo and the axe-murder incident at the JSA there's never been a military response directly against NK positions. This despite the fact the US could easily have done so.
Mango Madness
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(10-08-2017, 12:35 AM)
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Originally Posted by maquiladora

Don't get sucked in by this empty bluster.

How do you know it's empty? Is it the same way you knew that Trump would lose the election?
Splendor
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(10-08-2017, 12:42 AM)
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Trump did those sets of tweets as part of a set of 5 where he also plugged a live event he was doing and retweeted a bumper sticker photoshop, so those two were clearly not set up as a major policy announcement. The reporters in the room during the calm before the storm comment all seemed to think he was enjoying sounding tough in front of military people, one of the groups he most seeks approval from, and that Trump loves to stir the pot.

I'm not saying that there is no reason to be concerned about Trump with NK but its clear he puts as much thought into these tweets as he does any other, which is to say very little. His tweets rarely end up being more than his specific thought at a specific moment and rarely part of a larger strategy and acting as though this is a sudden major step towards nuclear destruction is mostly likely overblown and largely unhelpful.
TaterTots
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(10-08-2017, 12:46 AM)
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What irritates me is we don't know what was discussed. Maybe they had a plan to take out the sick dictator of NK with few to no casualties. We do not know. All we know is he is spilling the beans and fucking making shit worse. I've tried time and time to give this dude the benefit of the doubt. "Oh he is just shooting from the hip!" No.....after his comments about leading gun control I realized he is a fucking moron. I'm an idiot for ever thinking otherwise.
Tubs_McNubs
Member
(10-08-2017, 12:49 AM)

Originally Posted by Mango Madness

How do you know it's empty? Is it the same way you knew that Trump would lose the election?

I'm not gonna outright agree with Mango that this is empty bluster, but I will say Donald Trump likes to overhype anything and everything he does or sells. The cautious optimist in me says this is another example of that.
Brawly Likes to Brawl
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(10-08-2017, 12:54 AM)
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It's really not fun having an insane moron be in charge of foreign policy. What sort of sick bastard treats a potential conflict like preview to a TV episode? He did the same thing with the DACA decision despite it being obvious that he was going to do whatever he could to fuck some minorities over.
Last edited by Brawly Likes to Brawl; 10-08-2017 at 12:59 AM.
Jorok Goldblade
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(10-08-2017, 01:36 AM)
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Originally Posted by Tahnit

So he can’t Declare war without congress right?

The President can deploy troops for up to sixty days before needing Congressional approval.
Queen Vulpix
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(10-08-2017, 01:38 AM)
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Would really be nice if congress could pass a bill limiting the presidents ability to order a first strike nuke, I know some bills were drafted earlier this year for that exact thing but have no clue if they went anywhere. I have little faith in congress invoking the 25th should Trump do something so stupid as to launch a nuke first.
Iolo
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(10-08-2017, 01:51 AM)
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Originally Posted by Majine

More importantly, I don't think KJU has that much power over his country. He's a front figure, an heir to the throne set in motion by his grandfather. He's an ideal to sell to the people.

The real people in power are probably the top military brass.

Jong-un has had many top officials (i.e. competition) killed. He’s fully in charge.

As for empty bluster — probably. But empty bluster can accidentally trigger a war.
McLovin
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(10-08-2017, 01:59 AM)
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I can’t believe its that hard to impeach Trump. Clinton got impeached for lying about sleeping with Lewinski, but this dude lied abound almost everything and has obvious mental issues yet hes still president.
BrassDragon
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(10-08-2017, 02:06 AM)
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Originally Posted by Dubbedinenglish

First, not getting into the war of words with them Trump is feeding to their propaganda by this back and forth.

Second, actual diplomacy conducted in good faith either through China or an intermediary

Third, apply pressure to China. They are the biggest enablers and supporters of NK.

If the goal is to prevent a nuclear-capable North Korea, there really are no good or reliable military options for Trump. An all-in first strike would snowball into a bloodbath, likely on both sides, on a scale western citizens just aren't used to anymore, and is going to trigger massive unrest at home and abroad. Limited strikes (engineering structures, launch facilities and/or assassination of the Kim regime) are highly unpredictable and could easily escalate into the same bloodbath as the all-in scenario. I'm guessing this is what Trump is considering right now, assuming his staff is stopping his worst batshit irrational instincts.

Acceptance/appeasement is not a realistic option even if Trump's psychology would allow it: that would be a bright beacon to all rogue nations that having a nuclear deterrent ensures the future of your regime and a seat at the table of world affairs.

That leaves diplomacy and clandestine action.

The game changer is that deterrence (conventional / nuclear / political) has failed as a policy to keep North Korea from going nuclear. This is a paradigm shift that even China didn't count on. It's clear they like the peninsula as a buffer and distraction to the US, not a sudden wildcard in the balance of power. This might leave some room to maneuver with the Chinese as they figure out what their new North Korea strategy is and they might be willing to overtly sanction North Korea and covertly aid sabotage of the nuclear program (cyber and supply chain.)

Unfortunately Trump starved his State department of budget and manpower, alienated his intelligence community and undermined the credibility of his Secretary of State. He doesn't have the respect of other heads of state and no personal ties to leverage.

There are some clues past sabotage efforts have delayed the nuclear program (failed missile tests, misfires and computer problems) and it could be stepped up (particularly using special forces and the capabilities of regional allies..)

All things considered, I think we're going to see limited strikes unless somebody inside the US government came up with a brilliant way out of the mess. Not because it's the best option but because it's the only one I see appealing to Trump on a gut level.
Last edited by BrassDragon; 10-08-2017 at 02:08 AM.
Tagyhag
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(10-08-2017, 02:08 AM)
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Originally Posted by McLovin

I can’t believe its that hard to impeach Trump. Clinton got impeached for lying about sleeping with Lewinski, but this dude lied abound almost everything and has obvious mental issues yet hes still president.

That's a Republican majority for ya.

That said, he hasn't been caught lying under oath so Clinton has that over him.

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