[McHuj]

I will be shocked if new systems cost more than $399 at launch.

I fear we're at really interesting point. I think after MS's trial run of the $99 SKU with contract, they'll go with that model for next gen.

Starting in fall of 2013:
the New Xbox: $499 or $249 with a 2 year Live service contract
the 360: $149 or $0 with a contract.

but I'm hoping what bgassassin said about a shorter next gen comes to pass. I like upgrading my hardware every 4-5 years.

[HocusPocus]

Most people on this board pay for LIVE that have a 360. I couldn't imagine the 360 without LIVE, it would be a PS3 without blu-ray. What is wrong with that model if you get more hardware in the box and they don't loose their ass to provide it?

[BurntPork]

PS360 is still lower than where PS2 is now, but it's not behind where PS2 was at ~6 years. PS360Wii is also way ahead of PS2GCNXbox LTD and still running up the lead.

PSWii60 ;)

[BigTnaples]

Devs are already having trouble with the high budgets of this generation. We don't need studios going out of business trying to make avatar. Jesus. Sony and MS should just focus on making the consoles easy to develop for.

Most of the benefits of next gen wont cause devs costs to go up.


Early on this gen, devs struggled to find a workflow to create HD assets at to develop for new advanced hardware. Even Epic themselves had to outsource character model creation of the stranded for Gears 1.


That was then. Now Developers have much better tools for the engines they use and workflows are quick. Assets for current gen games are created at much higher resolution than the consoles can handle, and then dumbed down..

Look at Gears Models.

They are already created in super high fidelity, then dumbed down for the games cut scenes, then dumbed down a bit further for actual gameplay.

A theoretical next gen Gears launch game could use pretty much the same quality models they created for Gears 3, maybe slightly more detailed.

The improvements are going to come from engine effects, new lighting, subsurface scattering, Bokeh Depth of Field, Real Time Reflections, Volumetric Effects, Enhanced Physics, Tessellation, Hit Detection, and the ability to throw a ton more NPC's at once into the fray, on to larger scale maps. Not to mention if devs choose to they can push 1080p with AA and AF and have amazing IQ on a game, especially if the graphics aren't "AAA"


A smaller developer, or an indy dev will still benefit from better hardware.

Look at Sins of a Solar Empire, the games graphics weren't exactly mind melting, especially at launch, but the game still benefits greatly from more powerful hardware because it allows the player to play larger scale games. That does not increase dev costs, but it does allow the developer to see their vision come to fruition.

Look at all the compromises we make for today's games and the vision of what they should be. How many vistas today are ruined by the fact that the skybox is low resolution in order to save the framerate? That is a consistent problem this gen.

Look at Mass Effect 3 having to take holstering away because they didn't have enough Ram left to squeeze.

Or look at Battlefield 3 who's maps had to be reduced in size and who's player count went from 64 to 24 on consoles.

Or Skyrim who still is missing levitation spells because cities are separate cells. And in which you can't see out or into a window as a thief to spy on NPCs because the hardware is inadequate.

Or LittleBigPlanet where a player is limited in his creations by the consoles small amount of memory.

Or any number of games where an epic battle between nations or worlds is shown as a 6 on 6 NPC battle because the hardware can't handle larger scale conflicts.

I could go on for HOURS about how the current consoles limit developers of all sizes, and hamper their ability to deliver their vision to the world. Next gen hardware will give developers extra headroom to do some more of the things they want. Period.

[Rivyn]

text

I agree with this post entirely.

Graphics are not everything and some people need to learn that.

[Thunder Monkey]

PS360 is still lower than where PS2 is now, but it's not behind where PS2 was at ~6 years. PS360Wii is also way ahead of PS2GCNXbox LTD and still running up the lead.

You calling me a liar?

[RooMHM]

I agree with this post entirely. Graphics are not everything and some people need to learn that.

Then why did Sony and Microsoft focus exclusively on graphics for their current gen consoles? It's cool to say things like a word of mind but believing it is true and should be the norm is something else. Nothing was done to improve gameplay and other elements (maybe online? and even that) before Nintendo had released the wii for 4 years.

[Like2Drive]

I don't care about fucking graphics. I just want stable frame rate and less loading times.

call of duty 4 modern warfare graphics is enough for me to feel content.

[MrBig]

I don't care about fucking graphics. I just want stable frame rate and less loading times. call of duty 4 modern warfare graphics is enough for me to feel content.

This is what most people are missing. All the extra resources doesn't mean you have to make the graphics on the cutting edge of technical developement, you can put all those resources to use improving IQ, framerate, and draw distance/count.

[Clear]

Most of the benefits of next gen wont cause devs costs to go up.

Sadly, completely wrong.

The more complex and feature-rich your program, the greater the chance some random combination of events/operations will cause it to malfunction. Validation by the team and test time within QA will inevitably increase.

Also, however much V/RAM a system has, the impetus will always be to fill it in order to provide the maximum return - developers will always be bumping their heads against the ceiling. The only difference a higher ceiling makes is that it takes more stuff to reach it (more complexity, more time, more cost) and there's further to fall when something goes wrong.

There are no short-cuts. A 1000 piece jigsaw is always going to take longer to complete than a 200 piece one if the picture is basically the same.

Time/space/feature budgets will always need to be observed and the higher the level of quality demanded as standard the more money it will cost to deliver that. You want movie-quality imagery, be prepared to pay movie-quality rates for your staff and equipment.

And ultimately that expense is always going to trickle down to the consumer.

[iamshadowlark]

Sadly, completely wrong. The more complex and feature-rich your program, the greater the chance some random combination of events/operations will cause it to malfunction. Validation by the team and test time within QA will inevitably increase. Also, however much V/RAM a system has, the impetus will always be to fill it in order to provide the maximum return - developers will always be bumping their heads against the ceiling. The only difference a higher ceiling makes is that it takes more stuff to reach it (more complexity, more time, more cost) and there's further to fall when something goes wrong. There are no short-cuts. A 1000 piece jigsaw is always going to take longer to complete than a 200 piece one if the picture is basically the same. Time/space/feature budgets will always need to be observed and the higher the level of quality demanded as standard the more money it will cost to deliver that. You want movie-quality imagery, be prepared to pay movie-quality rates for your staff and equipment. And ultimately that expense is always going to trickle down to the consumer.

Thats not really how it works. Games(or programs) aren't really getting any more complex, the assets are. An executable for an next-gen game will be identical to one this year.

Whats getting more complex are assets and shaders. If Epic is anything to base off of, the next generation will be all about effects(shaders) and they generally require minimal troubleshooting. BigTnaples is correct in that most of these newer effects won't do much to raise budgets.

Assets are really gonna raise budgets.

[mugurumakensei]

Thats not really how it works. Games(or programs) aren't really getting any more complex, the assets are. An executable for an next-gen game will be identical to one this year. Whats getting more complex are assets and shaders. If Epic is anything to base off of, the next generation will be all about effects(shaders) and they generally require minimal troubleshooting. BigTnaples is correct in that most of these newer effects won't do much to raise budgets. Assets are really gonna raise budgets.

You've never dealt with parallel programming. Scaling across many processors, dead lock issues, etc are not exactly easy to program even for experienced developers.

[iamshadowlark]

You've never dealt with parallel programming. Scaling across many processors, dead lock issues, etc are not exactly easy to program even for experienced developers.

Well yes, yes I have. But parallel programming isn't exactly new. Its been what 7 years or so?

[Clear]

Thats not really how it works. Games(or programs) aren't really getting any more complex, the assets are. An executable for an next-gen game will be identical to one this year.

Assets aren't always passive, they have a direct influence on the complexity of the task at hand. If you have double the number of verts in collision mesh you have an increased number of possible points where your AI/NPC entities can get snagged. This needs validation within an implement->test->evaluation cycle.

Similarly, you double the number of entities operating within your new more complex mesh (because you have the CPU/GPU resources to handle them now) you have an exponential number of corner cases to deal with where object<->object collision resolution may or may not square with your new and more intricate environment mesh without ugly clipping or trapping.

The more detail you have, the closer you need to look in order to ensure that everything actually looks correct. There's more to it than simply upping the resolution/poly-counts.

[JoshuaJSlone]

You calling me a liar?

Just the shipment numbers, man. My PS360 number here is only updated through the end of last year, but their combined shipments at that time are about where PS2 shipments were at the end of 2007.

[iamshadowlark]

Assets aren't always passive, they have a direct influence on the complexity of the task at hand. If you have double the number of verts in collision mesh you have an increased number of possible points where your AI/NPC entities can get snagged. This needs validation within an implement->test->evaluation cycle.

Thats a good example but that rarely happens these days. Well not to a point where it would break a scene. Simply increasing the vertices will have minimal impacts on QA outside of the norm.

Similarly, you double the number of entities operating within your new more complex mesh (because you have the CPU/GPU resources to handle them now) you have an exponential number of corner cases to deal with where object<->object collision resolution may or may not square with your new and more intricate environment mesh without ugly clipping or trapping.

Well there's prototyping at almost every level of game development. An increase in complexity doesn't automatically increase time spent debugging.

[clutch.as.it.gets.]

I hope Epic comes through again. They are the reason we got 512 MB Ram for the 360 and i hope they can do their magic again.

[jman2050]

This is what most people are missing. All the extra resources doesn't mean you have to make the graphics on the cutting edge of technical developement, you can put all those resources to use improving IQ, framerate, and draw distance/count.

But they won't.

[lucius]

I bet we will still have screen tearing.

[tkscz]

This entire thread is one big argument of game development cost.

[i-Lo]

This is what most people are missing. All the extra resources doesn't mean you have to make the graphics on the cutting edge of technical developement, you can put all those resources to use improving IQ, framerate, and draw distance/count.

Very true.

But they won't.

Actually, I think they will after the initial outbreak of utilizing power for better graphics only (because it's the first thing we see. Always). We have seen it happen this gen (better animation, AI, collision physics etc with new iterations of games in general) and if UE4's tools indeed live up to the promise of saving dev time and costs then I don't see why not esp. since new physics engine for cloth and collision are built into it.

[Angelus Errare]

I'm most looking forward to Epic's claim of UE4 getting rid of that "same engine" look. The read was brief but made me excited. But at the sametime I doubt you can get rid of something like that. Part of the reason many UE3 games had the same look was the fact that many developers used effects that came bundled with the SDK (Explosion, fire effects, texture usage etc). That and prior to Beast and Lightmass they all baked their lighting the exact same crude ugly as shit way and it stood out.

They don't have to worry about the lighting part any longer.

[AstroNut325]

Epic... You have my sword. I want my consoles to be beasts. I don't want the Nintendo way. I'm willing to spend $500! Maybe even more if you really push the boundaries.

[les papillons sexuels]

More powerful HW can also be easier to develop for, if better tools are provided.

then it's not easier to develop for, it's more expensive because developers either need to build the tools themselves or they need to buy middleware.

The more powerful the hardware, the more developers will be playing catch-up with the few studios that have the funds to create the real top of the line work, or they're paying to use someone elses work. I want cheaper, less powerful consoles so that developers can focus on making their games their way and not relying middleware or liscensed engines from crytek and epic.

Of course this means that companies like epic and crytek will take a huge hit, hence why they want them to be as powerful as possible. It's good business for them, bad for the industry, and bad for the gamer overall, but they're doing a really good job of selling it.

This is what most people are missing. All the extra resources doesn't mean you have to make the graphics on the cutting edge of technical developement, you can put all those resources to use improving IQ, framerate, and draw distance/count.

under the current metric of how games get reviewed and how metacritic plays a role in whether a studio gets funding, then they do have to make it cutting edge. They have to play catch-up to the big guns because reviewers are using games like uncharted and gears and crysis as the new demarcation for good graphics. Why aren't developers making wii-style games (like mario galaxy) for the xbox or ps3, then using the left over resources to deliver it to us at 60fps with 4xaa and all that other iq stuff. Because that's not how it works, it's never been how it works, and it's not going to work like that next generation.

[MrBig]

under the current metric of how games get reviewed and how metacritic plays a role in whether a studio gets funding, then they do have to make it cutting edge. They have to play catch-up to the big guns because reviewers are using games like uncharted and gears and crysis as the new demarcation for good graphics. Why aren't developers making wii-style games (like mario galaxy) for the xbox or ps3, then using the left over resources to deliver it to us at 60fps with 4xaa and all that other iq stuff. Because that's not how it works, it's never been how it works, and it's not going to work like that next generation.

You can count the number of triple A studios that build tools for, and are developing the cutting edge of rendering tech, on one hand. That is not a metric you use to judge an industry as a whole. The vast majority of studios will see the new specs and see that they are able to extend their resource budget in ways they haven't been able to since 7 years ago. If their goal is to go bankrupt and sell an empty game with pretty graphics that's ok too i guess?
Look at Risen, Diablo III, WoW, DOTA 2, Portal, Minecraft, Trials, and many other games. Do they look like BF3, Crysis, Gears, or Halo? No. Do they still sell exceedingly well? Yes.
You have to have some hook to get people to buy and fund a game, it does not have to solely technical rendering based.

[les papillons sexuels]

You can count the number of triple A studios that build tools for, and are developing the cutting edge of rendering tech, on one hand. That is not a metric you use to judge an industry as a whole. The vast majority of studios will see the new specs and see that they are able to extend their resource budget in ways they haven't been able to since 7 years ago. If their goal is to go bankrupt and sell an empty game with pretty graphics that's ok too i guess? Look at Risen, Diablo III, WoW, DOTA 2, Portal, Minecraft, Trials, and many other games. Do they look like BF3, Crysis, Gears, or Halo? No. Do they still sell exceedingly well? Yes. You have to have some hook to get people to buy and fund a game it does not have to solely technical rendering based.

yes, because every studio has the same reputation of Bliz, and Valve behind them? And xbla games have a completely different set of standards then retail games. Comparing apples to oranges here. How many XBLA games are made with ut3 and cryengine?

[MrBig]

yes, because every studio has the same reputation of Bliz, and Valve behind them? And xbla games have a completely different set of standards then retail games. Comparing apples to oranges here. How many XBLA games are made with ut3 and cryengine?

They are retail games, played by humans. That's like saying any game sold on steam is junk, regardless of whether they were backed by some huge publishes. They still move a huge amount of copies. Plenty of games on XBLA use UE3, the most recent of which is Hybrid. UE3 is loved by smaller devs because many problems of dev are already solved for them, all they have to do is pay a fee, which may or may not be less than the money/time it would take to build an engine from scratch.

[KageMaru]

Well yes, yes I have. But parallel programming isn't exactly new. Its been what 7 years or so?

Yes and some will argue that it's still in it's infancy.

Game have gotten considerably more complex this gen. That won't stop all of a sudden next gen.

[les papillons sexuels]

They are retail games, played by humans. That's like saying any game sold on steam is junk, regardless of whether they were backed by some huge publishes. They still move a huge amount of copies. Plenty of games on XBLA use UE3, the most recent of which is Hybrid. UE3 is loved by smaller devs because many problems of dev are already solved for them, all they have to do is pay a fee, which may or may not be less than the money/time it would take to build an engine from scratch.

give me a break, you know what I mean when I say a retail game($60 box title). And that link only shows 5 games for XBLA/psn as a platform.

[MrBig]

And that link only shows 5 games for XBLA/psn as a platform.

Information is not filled in for all of the titles on there. I couldn't find a more complete source.

[celcius]

Tell 'em Epic, more power = better (don't care about price)

[iamshadowlark]

Yes and some will argue that it's still in it's infancy. Game have gotten considerably more complex this gen. That won't stop all of a sudden next gen.

There are only certain things that will get more complex. This past gen we saw games get more complex on a fundamental basis(think thread scheduling, splitting up work loads among units, synchronization, etc) because of a paradigm shift. The groundwork has been laid all generation.

This gen will see simply expansions of that work on a bigger scale. It'll be alot less work on developers to direct traffic amongst the computing elements compared to this generation. There is nothing in hardware today(i.e. next-gen consoles) that will cause a major paradigm shift similar to what happened last time. Its not "all of a sudden".

[squidyj]

I agree with this post entirely. Graphics are not everything and some people need to learn that.

Seems like you didn't read the post at all, maybe you should give it a try.

Sadly, completely wrong. The more complex and feature-rich your program, the greater the chance some random combination of events/operations will cause it to malfunction. Validation by the team and test time within QA will inevitably increase. Also, however much V/RAM a system has, the impetus will always be to fill it in order to provide the maximum return - developers will always be bumping their heads against the ceiling. The only difference a higher ceiling makes is that it takes more stuff to reach it (more complexity, more time, more cost) and there's further to fall when something goes wrong. There are no short-cuts. A 1000 piece jigsaw is always going to take longer to complete than a 200 piece one if the picture is basically the same. Time/space/feature budgets will always need to be observed and the higher the level of quality demanded as standard the more money it will cost to deliver that. You want movie-quality imagery, be prepared to pay movie-quality rates for your staff and equipment. And ultimately that expense is always going to trickle down to the consumer.

So... it's more complex and challenging to make a game that runs in 1gb than it is to make a game that runs in 10mb?

[SapientWolf]

Information is not filled in for all of the titles on there. I couldn't find a more complete source.

From what I know:

UE 3.0
Shadow Complex
Undertow
Super Sonic Acrobatic Rocket Powered Battle Cars
Dungeon Defenders
Wheels of Destruction
Roboblitz
Section 8: Prejudice
Choplifter HD
Monday Night Combat
Rock of Ages
Warp
Alien Breed Evolution
Blacklight: Tango Down


Cryengine
Nexuiz

I'm sure there's more. Hybrid uses Source engine, BTW. Gotta say, it looks damn good running at 60fps.

[KageMaru]

There are only certain things that will get more complex. This past gen we saw games get more complex on a fundamental basis(think thread scheduling, splitting up work loads among units, synchronization, etc) because of a paradigm shift. The groundwork has been laid all generation. This gen will see simply expansions of that work on a bigger scale. It'll be alot less work on developers to direct traffic amongst the computing elements compared to this generation. There is nothing in hardware today(i.e. next-gen consoles) that will cause a major paradigm shift similar to what happened last time.

I agree we won't be seeing a paradigm shift like this gen, which was a big reason behind the jump in cost. I was just refuting your earlier claim that games won't get more complex when they most certainly will.

[JonathanPower]

then it's not easier to develop for, it's more expensive because developers either need to build the tools themselves or they need to buy middleware. The more powerful the hardware, the more developers will be playing catch-up with the few studios that have the funds to create the real top of the line work, or they're paying to use someone elses work. I want cheaper, less powerful consoles so that developers can focus on making their games their way and not relying middleware or liscensed engines from crytek and epic.

Although it is true that in order to take advantage of the hw you need to develop something that is specifically meant to run on the new HW, it is not always true that developing for a more powerful hardware is more expansive. There are situations in which developing on a less powerful hw can be more expansive than developing on a more powerful hw. For example, let's say that you have made an engine for the xbox360, and let's say that the visuals of the engine are amazing, but the engine struggles to run at a decent frame rate at 720p. So you would need to spend additional time to optimize the engine in order to obtain a solid frame rate, and this would mean spending a lot of extra money for opimization. Now let's say that the xbox720 is so much powerful that can run the same engine at 60fps at 1080p without any problem; then, you would save the money needed for optimization.

[i-Lo]

I agree we won't be seeing a paradigm shift like this gen, which was a big reason behind the jump in cost. I was just refuting your earlier claim that games won't get more complex when they most certainly will.

And hence the necessity for dev tools to improve proportionally to ensure that the budgets for this gen games on average remain similar to what it is today across the board and be gradually reduced (to whatever end reasonably possible).

[The Lamp]

They probably just wanted to take a hint from the Wii and go cheaper and be more profitable from the get-go.

[les papillons sexuels]

Although it is true that in order to take advantage of the hw you need to develop something that is specifically meant to run on the new HW, it is not always true that developing for a more powerful hardaware is more expansive. There are situations in which developing on a less powerful hw can be more expansive than developing on a more powerful hw. For example, let's say that you have made an engine for the xbox360, and let's say that the visuals of the engine are amazing, but the engine struggles to run at a decent frame rate at 720p. So you would need to spend additional time to optimize the engine in order to obtain a decent frame rate, and this would mean spending a lot of extra money for opimization. Now let's say that the xbox720 is so much powerful that can run the same engine at 60fps at 1080p without any problem. Then you could stop to worry about optimizing the engine, saving a lot of money.

yeah, and that's exactly epics problem, and why they're pushing for stronger hardware. I'm guessing they built middleware that's not effective for the next generation of consoles and are pushing MS and Sony, to increase specs so they don't have to optimize as much.

[JonathanPower]

yeah, and that's exactly epics problem, and why they're pushing for stronger hardware. I'm guessing they built middleware that's not effective for the next generation of consoles and are pushing MS and Sony, to increase specs so they don't have to optimize as much.

It seems to me that Epic just wants a real jump in terms of power, which is what you would expect from a new generation of consoles. We saw a real jump with the xbox360, and it is normal that Epic wants to see a similar jump with the next xbox.

[MrBig]

I'm sure there's more. Hybrid uses Source engine, BTW. Gotta say, it looks damn good running at 60fps.

Whoops, not sure why I thought it was UE.

[les papillons sexuels]

It seems to me that Epic just wants a real jump in terms of power, which is what you would expect from a new generation of consoles. We saw a real jump with the xbox360, and it is normal that Epic wants to see a similar jump with the next xbox.

no, what epic wants is money and they're fronting it as if they want what's best for gamers. The stronger the next console the more people will rely on middleware.

[theBishop]

no, what epic wants is money and they're fronting it as if they want what's best for gamers. The stronger the next console the more people will rely on middleware.

I don't see why it would be different from last Gen. This generation forced developers to cope with multithreading and programmable shaders. There's no equivalent sea changes on the horizon for next generation. Maybe general purpose gpu code, but that's avoidable, and can be implemented in manageable modules.

I expect epic to be slightly less influential next generation no matter how much ram is available.

[iamshadowlark]

I agree we won't be seeing a paradigm shift like this gen, which was a big reason behind the jump in cost. I was just refuting your earlier claim that games won't get more complex when they most certainly will.

I was only referring to one specific capacity of a game. I dont really know how to express it in layman's terms.

[mugurumakensei]

Well yes, yes I have. But parallel programming isn't exactly new. Its been what 7 years or so?

It's been more than 7, and, even for experienced developers, it's still not a trivial thing due to the nature of the beast.

[PLASTICA-MAN]

Holly.................. if true.
http://images.4chan.org/v/src/1337870030972.jpg

[Stallion Free]

Holly.................. if true. http://images.4chan.org/v/src/1337870030972.jpg

Lol fully backwards compatible.

Lmao 10 gb of XDR2 + 10 gb of gddr6

[see5harp]

Can I get a non 4 chan link please. I'm actually scared that I'm now on some weird list at work.

[Rivyn]

Seems like you didn't read the post at all, maybe you should give it a try. So... it's more complex and challenging to make a game that runs in 1gb than it is to make a game that runs in 10mb?

I quoted the wrong post in a state of 99% sleep.

[ElTopo]

Holly.................. if true. http://images.4chan.org/v/src/1337870030972.jpg

About as likely as me winning 12 gold medals at the Olympics.