Pachter - Wii's momentum will last until ... (From this month's EGM)

[sonycowboy]

From the Decision 08 article in this month's EGM and our resident genius analyst (see the prediction thread )

(Also please, see my questions below)

I think the Wii momentum will last until the Playstation 3 is under $300, so another year

Add in

2008is definitely Sony's year. And I'd throw Grand Theft Auto IV into the mix, given that it's considered a PS2 owner's [franchise]. Also, Gran Turismo 5 Prologue should sell some consoles...

and

I think Microsoft's first party lineup is weakning, but I think that exclusiveslike Splinter Cell: Conviction will keep them going for another year. They also have the resources to sign third party exclusives.

The other 2 interviewees were much higher on Wii, lower on PS3 and more moderately positive on the 360. However, I am interested in 3 things from you guys.

1) Will lower 360 and PS3 prices blunt the advantage the Wii has, or is pricing the smaller of the 2 main advantages it has? (innovative controls)

2) Of the 3 consoles, which console do you think stands to gain the most in 2008? PS3 can't do any worse than it did in 2007, so by default it has an advantage, but GTA IV on 360 might be an incredibly damaging title to the PS3 (exclusive content, better sales)

3) First Party-wise 360 is WAYYYY down. That would lead one to believe that they are going to sign at least 2 pretty big third part publishers to commit some big titles to them. Assuming it's not GTA IV, MGS, or FF, what would you guess would be next in line? What titles would help the 360 the most and fit in with their goals for 2008?

[HK-47]

Oh god, will it ever end?

[schuelma]

1) Will lower 360 and PS3 prices blunt the advantage the Wii has, or is pricing the smaller of the 2 main advantages it has? (innovative controls)


I really don't see it playing a large role at all. It seems clear to me that people are buying the Wii for the controller.

2) Of the 3 consoles, which console do you think stands to gain the most in 2008? PS3 can't do any worse than it did in 2007, so by default it has an advantage, but GTA IV on 360 might be an incredibly damaging title to the PS3 (exclusive content, better sales)

Definitely PS3 IMO. GTAIV will be big, but Sony has a lot of room to improve and a good lineup.

3) First Party-wise 360 is WAYYYY down. That would lead one to believe that they are going to sign at least 2 pretty big third part publishers to commit some big titles to them. Assuming it's not GTA IV, MGS, or FF, what would you guess would be next in line? What titles would help the 360 the most and fit in with their goals for 2008?


I can see Capcom giving them another exclusive based on their sales of earlier games.

[Dragona Akehi]

Wiis still sell for 500$ on eBay. I think that pretty much explains everything.

[Guy Legend]

Wii's momentum will aburptly end on 9/9/09.

[Sho_Nuff82]

MS PR seems to be pointing towards Resident Evil 5 in 2008. If they got that and Fallout (as Wollan suggested) as 08 exclusives along with the GTA content NA software wouldn't be close.

Pachter seems to think the Wii and 360 will not have a price drop at all this year?

Too bad GTA IV isn't on PS2.

Can't be quoted enough.

[_Alkaline_]

I just can't see this happening.

Wii is dominating and doesn't appear to be letting up anytime soon. On the other hand, sure the PS3 is selling better than it once was, but it's still tracking below Gamecube was at this point in its lifetime and the gap between its competitors continues to widen.

Why do so many analysts believe the PS3 is going to start dominating and the Wii is going to start slowing down? Has anything given us this indication?

[Grecco]

And I'd throw Grand Theft Auto IV into the mix, given that it's considered a PS2 owner's [franchise].

Is he really suggesting GTA will sell better on the PS3 than Xbox? Oh Pachter

[Infernal Monkey]

2008is definitely Sony's year. And I'd throw Grand Theft Auto IV into the mix, given that it's considered a PS2 owner's [franchise].

Too bad GTA IV isn't on PS2.

[drohne]

Wiis still sell for 500$ on eBay. I think that pretty much explains everything.

that raises more questions than it answers

[ToxicAdam]

PACHTER THREAD -- PACHTER THREAD


Alert everyone! All hands on deck.


--- ---


I saw that quote too in EGM. Gave me a chuckle. To his credit, he has always stuck to his guns that PS3 will be the market leader when its all said and done. For that to happen, they have to make their move this year.

[Odysseus]

1) 360 and ps3's price movements have yet to affect wii one bit as it still sells as much as is available. where's the wii's ceiling? we've yet to see it.
2) i don't buy gta as the ps2 owner's franchise. that kind of thinking reeks of 2006 back when it was a given that ps3 would dominate the market. things have changed.
3) exclusives are overrated, and multiplatform games are underrated. unless the exclusive is a mega game along the lines of wii sports or halo 3, it's not terribly significant. keep the third party games coming and 360 will be fine. grand theft auto, call of duty, madden, guitar hero, rock band, maybe even another assassin's creed. count on next iterations of those franchises dominating sales charts next year ahead of most if not all exclusives you can throw out there.


(edit: these three points aren't completely directed at your questioning. particularly point 2.)

[Thunder Monkey]

If I was a betting man (and I am) I'd say that the PS3 sees consistently low sales (and by low I mean 200,000 units) for the majority of the year. GCN style pick ups as bigger titles release (maybe even Xboxish pick ups), but I still don't think Sony is much of a factor this generation.

MS I expect sustained performance in America this gen. I never expect their American userbase to be too far behind Nintendo's, and software sales will stay high as long as the 360 is relevant.

Nintendo I expect to remain high, and it to stay that way. There's nothing I see about that Wii that says it's going to slow down before 2009, and I expect as the userbase expands that the market for wares other then Nintendo's will continue to grow.

I don't expect that much of a change in fortunes for any of them. Going by any other generation positions are usually set in stone by now.

[Bluemercury]

1) Will lower 360 and PS3 prices blunt the advantage the Wii has, or is pricing the smaller of the 2 main advantages it has? (innovative controls) I really don't see it playing a large role at all. It seems clear to me that people are buying the Wii for the controller.

[Y2Kev]

Pachter has been owning everyone for a few months now, so I guess he's right. Nice try, doubters. Owned like Wiis by Grandmas.

[Hero]

Pricing was a big problem but it's not that big of a deal now that it's relatively cheap (compared to 360). Now it's an issue of games that uh, people want to buy?

[fernoca]

He sure nailed December's predictions..

But mostly every time he speaks about something else, he sounds like a fanboy..not only when he was talking last month about the NDS being just a toy... but like the many people constantly saying:

Wait till a $500 price drop...
Wait till a $400 price drop...
Wait till Lair..
Wait till Heavenly Sword...
Wait till GT5 Prologue
Wait till Ratchet..
Wait till Uncharted..
Wait till $300 price drop...

Still to come:
Wait till MGS4..
Wait till Final Fantasy XIII...

If or when the PS3 starts getting a lot more attention, it would probably be because there will be too many great game available (just like it happens with every console)..
Yet, they will probably be patting each others' backs..because they predicted the $300 price drop thing...

[Dragona Akehi]

that raises more questions than it answers

Oh, I'm quite aware. But it does make the pricepoint question rather moot.

[Guy Legend]

Is he really suggesting GTA will sell better on the PS3 than Xbox? Oh Pachter

No, rather that GTA's release will have a bigger impact on PS3 hardware sales since more people will associate it as a Playstation franchise. Hence, such a consumer without any next-gen system looking for GTA4 will more likely pick up a PS3.

[Bildi]

I can't see anything slowing down the Wii.

Price is but a tiny part of why it sells. Hell, the arcade 360 is now around the same price (depending on where you are in the world) and it isn't putting a dent in anything.

[jjgames]

The lower price points for 360 or PS3 will do nothing to change the Wii's sales. Anecdotally, this Christmas five family members bought Wii's and not as single one of them is a gamer. One is 70 and the others are girls in their 20's who haven't played games since the NES. These people are not going to stop buy Wii's because the other systems are cheaper. They simply like the new controls.

I do think the PS3 will do better this year, it almost has to, but the Wii's momentum will not change.

I also think the 360 will benefit more from GTA IV than PS3 will. At least that is my guess.

[RBH]

1) Will lower 360 and PS3 prices blunt the advantage the Wii has, or is pricing the smaller of the 2 main advantages it has? (innovative controls)

Price cuts will help the 360 and PS3, but I don't see it curbing Wii sales much. The innovative controls + Wii Sports combo is the more compelling advantage that the Wii possesses (rather than its lower price imo).

2) Of the 3 consoles, which console do you think stands to gain the most in 2008? PS3 can't do any worse than it did in 2007, so by default it has an advantage, but GTA IV on 360 might be an incredibly damaging title to the PS3 (exclusive content, better sales)

PS3, easily. Sony had some embarrasing times this year, and '08 looks to be a strong rebound year for them. I just don't see the PS3 outselling the Wii or the 360 during any particular month in the U.S. though.

3) First Party-wise 360 is WAYYYY down. That would lead one to believe that they are going to sign at least 2 pretty big third part publishers to commit some big titles to them. Assuming it's not GTA IV, MGS, or FF, what would you guess would be next in line? What titles would help the 360 the most and fit in with their goals for 2008?

I have a feeling that MS might secure timed exclusivity for Resident Evil 5 this year. Just a gut feeling on my part. Then there's the possibility of Gears of War 2 near the end of the year to possibly combat Resistance 2.

[Mudhoney]

He's... right.

Nintendo wishes they started at a higher price for Wii about now.

The thing I don't understand about all the talk about what will happen to Wii sales when the other two consoles go down in price is that no one seems to think Nintendo is able to lower the price of Wii also. If other consoles drop their prices and Wii sales stall, they have more room for price drops than MS or Sony. Nintendo can drop the price of Wii no problem and stay competitive.

[Spike]

1) Will lower 360 and PS3 prices blunt the advantage the Wii has, or is pricing the smaller of the 2 main advantages it has? (innovative controls)

If need be, Nintendo will drop the price to stay competitive.

2) Of the 3 consoles, which console do you think stands to gain the most in 2008? PS3 can't do any worse than it did in 2007, so by default it has an advantage, but GTA IV on 360 might be an incredibly damaging title to the PS3 (exclusive content, better sales)

I don't understand this concept that 2008 is the year of PS3. I keep seeing LBP, Home, Killzone 2, and MGS4 being referenced by everyone as the saviours for the PS3. And now Resistance 2 has been added to the mix.

LBP is only as good as the user created content. Home is a concept that is going to go through alot of fine-tuning even after release. Killzone 2 and Resistance 2 in the same year? MGS4 isn't a title on the level of a Halo or GTA.

I think that Wii is unfortunately going to still be the home of shovelware, as third party devs consistently fail to realize that they need to put in some solid effort if they want to reap the rewards.

3) First Party-wise 360 is WAYYYY down. That would lead one to believe that they are going to sign at least 2 pretty big third part publishers to commit some big titles to them. Assuming it's not GTA IV, MGS, or FF, what would you guess would be next in line? What titles would help the 360 the most and fit in with their goals for 2008?

I could see them try to go for a timed Resident Evil 5 exclusive. Don't know if Capcom would give it to them. Still, they might try.

I really don't have an answer for this one, simply because it is too early in the year and there are so many unannounced games right now. Maybe we could come back to this after GDC.

[papelnabangka]

I consistently sell Wiis for far more than the going rate for the 40GB PS3 and Premium 360 on eBay.

My average selling price is 390+$50 shipping for a total of $440.

I predict with fair confidence that the PS3's MSRP(lowest priced sku) will be more expensive than Wii's in about 12-18 months time.

[EvilMario]

The Wii's momentum will last until Nintendo releases their next console.

And from the outlook of this year, it's Sony's time to catch up on Microsoft. You know, if they can manage to put one foot in front of the other. Which has been a challenge lately.

Microsoft 's lineup is meh, and the bad word of mouth about Live on top of failing systems this far into the game is quite troublesome. That said, they will still not catch Sony, lots of little Sonybots will cry 'wait until 2009!'

That is all, good night.

[Linkup]

I thought wii was being brought for Wiisports and that they're all grandmas, so how does PS3s price even have anything to do with it? Not like the grandmas are interested in that bowling game on PS3 or it's other software regardless of price. Rest of the points are moot, 360 is the place to go for US third parties regardless of list wars and if your going budget or casual then there's the wii, which leaves PS3 right where it began.

[kamikaze]

Why do so many analysts believe the PS3 is going to start dominating and the Wii is going to start slowing down? Has anything given us this indication?

blu-ray! 10 year plan! momentum!

on a more serious note, i think ps3 still has a chance to do better because a lot of publishers were banking on the ps3 that they feel the need to give the ps3 a long time to fail.

[jrricky]

The wii is selling because of its motion controls

[michaelpachter]

No, rather that GTA's release will have a bigger impact on PS3 hardware sales since more people will associate it as a Playstation franchise. Hence, such a consumer without any next-gen system looking for GTA4 will more likely pick up a PS3.

Couldn't have said it better myself (and didn't )

[jgwhiteus]

I'd expect GTAIV to sell better on the 360 than the PS3, just given the difference in userbase sizes. "PS2 loyalty" just doesn't seem to have been a factor for anything this gen so far...

And I think analysts have called it the "gateway to next gen" that will convince millions of PS2 owners to switch over to 360/PS3, but I'm somewhat doubtful that it'll match its predecessors. I know it's an absolutely massive franchise (what was it, 14M for San Andreas alone WW?), but it also benefited from the PS2's massive userbase. I don't know if it has the power to sell $300-$500 systems by itself vs. the PS2 generation where people picked it up because they owned PS2's anyway. Does it inspire the same sort of loyalty that a "Halo" or "Final Fantasy" does? I don't think it's ever been tested before.

[BishopLamont]

Oh boy he wins one NPD and gets all cocky. Next thing you know Pachter gives us the date when PS3 overtakes 360/Wii combined.

[DeaconKnowledge]

It's amazing at how Pachter (and judging by this thread, half of GAF) still don't get it.

[Linkup]

Oh boy he wins one NPD and gets all cocky. Next thing you know Pachter gives us the date when PS3 overtakes 360/Wii combined.

He said all of that awhile ago.

[drohne]

i don't know if the gta audience is really playstation loyal. but if sony can shore up their software lineup and maybe cut the price again, they have an opportunity to win over that gta audience

[L0st Id3ntity]

No, rather that GTA's release will have a bigger impact on PS3 hardware sales since more people will associate it as a Playstation franchise. Hence, such a consumer without any next-gen system looking for GTA4 will more likely pick up a PS3.

What costs lower? PS3 + GTA4 or 360 + GTA4

I believe only a totally ignorant customer would go with the first choice, unless the PS3 version is miles better, which shouldn't be the case.

[Fredescu]

1) Will lower 360 and PS3 prices blunt the advantage the Wii has, or is pricing the smaller of the 2 main advantages it has? (innovative controls)

No, the two cutting prices will affect each other, but not the Wii.

2) Of the 3 consoles, which console do you think stands to gain the most in 2008? PS3 can't do any worse than it did in 2007, so by default it has an advantage, but GTA IV on 360 might be an incredibly damaging title to the PS3 (exclusive content, better sales)

Wii software sales will be the thing to watch for me. Without a handful of third party no excuses needed blockbusters, Wii can never hope to be the new PS2, and give a lot of traditional gaming ground to their competitors. If they manage it, the sky's the limit.

The PS3 is possibly in a better position to challenge the Wii for some of the casual market share if they can get the right software out there at the right price. I think the 360 is consigned to the be the shooter-box, so they probably stand to gain the least.

3) First Party-wise 360 is WAYYYY down. That would lead one to believe that they are going to sign at least 2 pretty big third part publishers to commit some big titles to them. Assuming it's not GTA IV, MGS, or FF, what would you guess would be next in line? What titles would help the 360 the most and fit in with their goals for 2008?

Maybe a timed SF IV exclusive, or some extra SF IV content? I really don't know on this one, but I do think GTA IV will sell more on 360 than PS3. I don't think the fact that pervious versions sold the most on Playstations will really be a factor. It might be too late for some good casual software on the 360 to make a splash, but they'll no doubt try.

[KyanMehwulfe]

1) Will lower 360 and PS3 prices blunt the advantage the Wii has, or is pricing the smaller of the 2 main advantages it has? (innovative controls)

The pricing is a required element of it but it's the controls (or the whole Wii mindset) that's still going to give it an edge unless the PS3/360 were cheaper -- unrealistic considering that even if they could get that low, Nintendo has far more freedom to go even lower.

I think the only thing that is going to really blunt the Wii advantage any time soon is Nintendo itself not retaining the steam of the whole Wii mindset. Wii Fit obviously looks like it'll add plenty of steam into it.

Instead of trying to convince folks to get the "PS3 instead of the Wii", Sony will needs to look at convincing them "to get the PS3 too". It'll never directly compete (though they could nip at its heels with Eye Toy) since they were built from the ground up so differently.They need to push their online component far harder, Blu-Ray even remotely ("PS3 plays movies?!"), and they simply need more games. Beyond the obvious $300 mark of course, they just need to start moving more software.

[Segata Sanshiro]

Following console sales and analyst remarks these days is like living through a perpetual Dead Parrot sketch.

[Grecco]

No, rather that GTA's release will have a bigger impact on PS3 hardware sales since more people will associate it as a Playstation franchise. Hence, such a consumer without any next-gen system looking for GTA4 will more likely pick up a PS3.

Well the Madden and GH3 gamers picked Xboxes over PS3s. Some decided to keep their Ps2s.

Will be fun to see what happens with Devil May Cry. Thats a "Playstation franchise " too.

Suffice to say "console" franchises are a thing of the past this gen.

[Kusagari]

Pachter is ridiculous with this crap. Does he really think that PS3 being $300 means ANYTHING when so many people are still buying Wii's for over 500 on Ebay?

[Sushen]

It's got a lot to do with smart marketing. I'm not talking about magazine ads or such, but rather grass roots level stealth/in-your-skin marketing. As long as MS and Sony plays the game like some noobs on CoD4 who rushes into his death after getting killed 40 times, Nintendo will snipe them down all day long. Especially for MS, I don't think they understand marketing at all. With the library that 360 has now, 360 should do far better than now. How many top 20 games Wii there are and how many Wiis they sell each month? That's what I'm talking about. All the price tags and other excuses come to explain what happened, nothing more.

[Odysseus]

it's funny how the hardcore mindset can't understand that people actually like the wii, that it's not just a matter of it being the cheapest option. that may have given it a boost initially, sure, but turns out people just like swinging their arms to make their on-screen avatar hit a tennis ball. lots and lots of people.

360/ps3 aren't going to change that merely by dropping in price.

[Kintaro]

1) Will lower 360 and PS3 prices blunt the advantage the Wii has, or is pricing the smaller of the 2 main advantages it has? (innovative controls)

The way I see things, the lower the prices, the better the chances. Honestly, how could you say otherwise? I'm not saying people will stop buying the Wii, but what I will say is more people will definitely pick up 360/PS3. No question.

2) Of the 3 consoles, which console do you think stands to gain the most in 2008? PS3 can't do any worse than it did in 2007, so by default it has an advantage, but GTA IV on 360 might be an incredibly damaging title to the PS3 (exclusive content, better sales)

The most to gain? PS3. Coming out of it's first year, it's been very slow. However, there's big time games hitting the system both multiplat and exclusive. Good quality games. If the marketing is right, they can make an impact. In my view, I don't think exclusive DLC is as much of a factor as people think it is, however, it'll sell better just because of ihe difference in install bases right now. The game will definitely sell on BOTH systems though, and I believe both will sell proportionate to their respective install bases. Halo 3 was/will be most damaging to the PS3 then GTA4 will be.

3) First Party-wise 360 is WAYYYY down. That would lead one to believe that they are going to sign at least 2 pretty big third part publishers to commit some big titles to them. Assuming it's not GTA IV, MGS, or FF, what would you guess would be next in line? What titles would help the 360 the most and fit in with their goals for 2008?

I personally have no idea. They can try to get Resident Evil 5 exclusive, but that's the only thing I can think of "big" right now (and I don't see Capcom going for that).

[IronicallyTwisted]

I'm going with the Pach Attack on this one. When the PS3 hits a mass market pricepoint its hardware is going to overshadow the Wii. As more and more people get HD TV's, they are going to be interested in Blu Ray and high definition gaming, and thats when the PS3 hits its stride.

[Aaron Strife]

The Wii is a fad and it will die off eventually. After that, third party developers can go back to making the same games they did last gen except with prettier things to look at.

That is pretty much what it comes down to.

I'm going with the Pach Attack on this one. When the PS3 hits a mass market pricepoint its hardware is going to overshadow the Wii. As more and more people get HD TV's, they are going to be interesting in Blu Ray and high definition gaming, and thats when the PS3 hits its stride.

Well, it's not like anything is holding Nintendo back from cutting the price of the Wii. Any price cut that could put the PS3 at an advantage against the Wii, Nintendo could drop their price and be done.

[Davidion]

it's funny how the hardcore mindset can't understand that people actually like the wii, that it's not just a matter of it being the cheapest option. that may have given it a boost initially, sure, but turns out people just like swinging their arms to make their on-screen avatar hit a tennis ball. lots and lots of people. 360/ps3 aren't going to change that merely by dropping in price.

They'll learn...maybe...once we're two generations past this one.

That is pretty much what it comes down to.

oh YEAH, that's the ticket.

[TheGreatDave]

The 360 is already at a mass market pricepoint.

[IronicallyTwisted]

That is pretty much what it comes down to.

As opposed to making the same games last generation that somehow look even worse, with a tacked on control scheme?

[Tyrone Slothrop]

yeah, well

that about wraps things up for nintendo