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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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Deleted member 231381

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I don't think their position is that the 0% tariff should be reciprocated. They say that it'd be nice, but if not then that shouldn't stop the UK. I don't think the WTO would care if the UK unilaterally went to 0% tariffs for all imports from any country?

...why would the UK do this? If I'm charging no tariffs on your goods but you are charging tariffs on mine, then your companies are not competed against domestically, grow to a size they can best leverage economies of scale, and can then take over my market. It's like inviting someone to murder all your country's start-ups in their sleep.
 

Uzzy

Member
I don’t see what’s in it for the UK if it imports every trashcan available at 0% when exports are bound by WTO rules.

That’s like saying i‘ll buy your car for 5€ and then offer you my car for 7€ while your neighbor offers it for 6€.

...why would the UK do this? If I'm charging no tariffs on your goods but you are charging tariffs on mine, then your companies are not competed against domestically, grow to a size they can best leverage economies of scale, and can then take over my market. It's like inviting someone to murder all your country's start-ups in their sleep.

According to the IEA, we'd benefit from lower prices on all goods. Our domestic industries would get murdered, except for those areas where we have competitive advantages, but the death of agriculture and manufacturing is a price worth paying for that. Our trade policy should be aimed at benefiting consumers, not businesses, apparently.

I mean it's madness, and it'd certainly lead to massive job losses, but at least our trashcans will be cheap. It's worrying how many Tories subscribe to this viewpoint.
 

KDR_11k

Member
...why would the UK do this? If I'm charging no tariffs on your goods but you are charging tariffs on mine, then your companies are not competed against domestically, grow to a size they can best leverage economies of scale, and can then take over my market. It's like inviting someone to murder all your country's start-ups in their sleep.

Their argument is "it's only 8% of the jobs that are affected and we'll make so many new jobs from all those opportunities!!!" The standard argument from neoliberals, "good things that make up for our horrible policies will come from... somewhere!"
 
This is really why the left wing Leave argument is weak. They have no idea they opened way for Rees-Mogg and the like to wipe out regulations that benefit people in general. Most Eurosceptics aren't left wing these days, unlike that time where socialists didn't want to join the EEC and the centre-right were heavily in favour of joining a single market.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
According to the IEA, we'd benefit from lower prices on all goods. Our domestic industries would get murdered, except for those areas where we have competitive advantages, but the death of agriculture and manufacturing is a price worth paying for that. Our trade policy should be aimed at benefiting consumers, not businesses, apparently.

I mean it's madness, and it'd certainly lead to massive job losses, but at least our trashcans will be cheap. It's worrying how many Tories subscribe to this viewpoint.

An absolutely incorrect way of thinking.

There are reasons why countries (and the EU) tend to be protectionist and go out of their way to protect their agricultural industries. You do not want to have to rely on imports for basic foodstuffs.
 

Uzzy

Member
Article in the Times today talking about disgraced former defence secretary Liam Fox, and his attempts to bypass the devolved administrations in any future trade deals.

Liam Fox is demanding the right to bypass the Scottish and Welsh governments when striking free trade agreements after Brexit.

The trade secretary has written to cabinet ministers suggesting that they deny devolved administrations the ability to veto deals, even if they allow in more genetically modified products, despite the bans on GM crops in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Dr Fox is also suggesting that the devolved administrations should not sit on the new board of trade that Theresa May has decided to reform. This is likely to be opposed by colleagues who fear it signals that the government is unwilling even to consult on trade.

In his letter, Dr Fox set out four options for negotiating trade deals, from agreeing a common position with the devolved governments to ignoring them and declaring trade a reserved matter for the British government. Dr Fox is understood to favour options that do not give the devolved administrations a veto.

The move has split the cabinet, which received Dr Fox's letter in the past week. David Mundell, the Scottish secretary, Alun Cairns, the Welsh secretary, and James Brokenshire, the Northern Ireland secretary are said to have rejected Dr Fox's proposals. They are worried that it will further undermine the devolution settlement, strengthen the nationalists in Scotland and destabilise the situation further in Northern Ireland, where the devolved administration remains suspended.

However, Dr Fox is understood to have the backing of senior members of the cabinet amid fears that the SNP will deliberately scupper trade deals if given the chance. A government source told The Times: ”Liam is pushing to ensure that trade deals remain a reserve power for the UK and the letter went into ministerial boxes in the last week. The secretaries of state for devolved institutions are very, very keen to keep the devolved administrations on board and work together in a collaborative way. We can see a situation where the Scottish government is not going to allow trade deals to work."
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Interesting that the cabinet's secretaries for the devolved nations don't like his proposals. They're approaching the situation carefully, he's not.

A veto would be quite a bit to allow, but it's uncharted territory.
 
The scuttlebutt is that DExEU is releasing something at midnight. Trade deal with Norfolk?

Nothing as interesting.

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/899044066452799488

DHoLyUAXoAEU3h_.jpg
 

Uzzy

Member
That'll keep the EU on their toes, giving them exactly what they've been asking for. With these negotiating geniuses on our side, the EU will surely unconditionally surrender anyday now.

Quite how that's the big news (it's not even publishing the papers, it's just saying we're going to publish some more papers) and not this, I don't know.

The European Union is damaging the chances of a smooth Brexit by refusing to talk about a future free trade deal, British ministers have claimed.

In a warning shot to Brussels, senior Whitehall sources have told this newspaper that the Continent will be to blame for trade disruption unless they agree to widen talks.

Ministers want the EU to sign off discussions about a free trade deal in October even if there is no agreement on how much Britain will pay in the so-called ‘Brexit bill’.

David Davis has gone public with his concerns over timings, indicating the two-step negotiations process demanded by Brussels could backfire.

“With the clock ticking, it wouldn’t be in either of our interests to run aspects of the negotiations twice,” said Mr Davis, the Brexit Secretary, in a statement issued yesterday.

Of particular note is this quote

A senior Whitehall source said: “The UK Government is getting us into a position where it will become obvious that if there’s a problem when we leave with trade it will be the EU who created it, not the UK."

Laying the groundwork for blaming the EU for any problems with talks, I see.
 

Tethur

Member
Laying the groundwork for blaming the EU for any problems with talks, I see.

Similarly today's article by Bernard Jenkin in the FT

Bernard Jenkin said:
Our EU partners should want this. These broad proposals are both an olive branch, and a challenge to them to respond constructively. If there is disruption, it would be because Europe wants it, not the UK.

Do what we want or we'll cut our own throats
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40972776

Removing all trade tariffs and barriers would help generate an annual £135bn uplift to the UK economy, according to a group of pro-Brexit economists.
A hard Brexit is "economically much superior to soft" argues Prof Patrick Minford, lead author of a report from Economists for Free Trade.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0270.1990.tb01950.x/abstract

How strong is the case against the Poll Tax? Patrick Minford argues that the Community Charge has much to commend it. Opponents underestimate the political maturity of the electorate.
 

Tethur

Member
Laying the groundwork for blaming the EU for any problems with talks, I see.

Of course the EU isn't blameless, I don't completely agree with The neogtiations will fail but it has some fair points

Accepting the EU’s sequencing of negotiations was a major mistake by the British government and the sequencing was in fact a mistake also by the EU Commission [...] To agree a financial settlement alongside negotiations over a future ‘deep’ relationship would be difficult enough. For the EU to think that the UK would agree a financial settlement without any guarantee of such a future relationship framework is not only contrary to the EU Treaty but purblind.

Personally, I do not think that the EU is in the punishment game but they have not
thought matters through.

- They cannot continue the same level of trade with the UK if the UK suffers a fall in
exports due to EU regulatory complexity or trade problems following Brexit.
- Trade problems for the UK will result in a flood of EU workers returning home.
- Trade problems will mean there will be no will and no ability for the UK to make
any financial settlement.

Both sides will need to give a little in the fall.
 
Of course the EU isn't blameless, I don't completely agree with The neogtiations will fail but it has some fair points





Both sides will need to give a little in the fall.

Who are the Futurus think tank?

Edit:

ANTHONY SCHOLEFIELD...is the Director of FUTURUS, a think tank specialising in EU and immigration matters.

His recent publications are Too ‘Nice’ to be Tories – How the Modernisers have damaged the Conservative Party (with Gerald Frost, 2011) and Warning: Immigration can seriously damage your wealth (2008).
 

Xando

Member
Of course the EU isn't blameless, I don't completely agree with The neogtiations will fail but it has some fair points





Both sides will need to give a little in the fall.

The only one deserving blame for this is the morons who voted for this.


*If you don't give us a trade deal we'll flood our own markets with cheap trash*

Seems like a good idea
 
Of course the EU isn't blameless, I don't completely agree with The neogtiations will fail but it has some fair points

Both sides will need to give a little in the fall.

Whatever political capital the british government had was well and truly spent before the negotiations even started.

You can't fault the EU for wanting the most pressing issues sorted first (the massive hole in the EU budget that Britain's withdrawel left, the establishment of a hard landborder including potential troubles 2.0) and not believing Britain is negotiating in good faith when the british government was acting as disingenious as it did before.

Do I need to remind you of the thinly veiled threats about future security cooperation and returning radioactive waste to the continent etc. ?
 

Tethur

Member
Never looked at the author, don't hold his political views (Am a continental who lived in the UK for a couple of years and has family there). Still don't disagree with him about the sequencing mistake by the EU (which doesn't absolve the UK government of mishandling the whole situation)

-The aim of sequencing was to force the UK quickly into a clear position,
-However the UK government needed to show a quick win after Brexit (Both for the tories and the mood of the country)
- The financial settlement forces the UK government into a major public loss (The election also didn't help here)
-The EU is seeing short term financial gains due to the position of the Brits, and while most hoped the UK would come to their senses (EFTA, EEA, CU) this seems less likely with the passing of time.
- Yes the threats sure didn't help.
- That the UK government (and the opposition) doen't seem to honestly engage with whole process is starting to annoy even countries which were pushing for a quick resolution (Ireland, Netherlands, Denmark)

I don't think the tories (nor labor) will solve their internal problems (and position) any time soon , My biggest fear is that the EU in exasperation doubles down on the sequencing and we'll see a complete breakdown in relations between both parties. While the EU could manage the losses better in case of a cliff edge, both sides need to give a little to move forward.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
There was never going to be any other sequence. The UK leaving takes us from point A to B. An agreement about our future relationship after leaving takes us from point B to point C. You can't make that agreement if you don't know what point B is going to be. So of course the EU isn't going to start negotiating on B -> C matters before A -> B matters are sorted.

For example: the UK's exit might keep them in the Customs Union. It might not. We have no idea. You can find Conservative politicians who've said both things. If the EU wants to make a trade deal, it will want what we do to be compatible with the Customs Union. If we're not in it, they therefore have to make an agreement with us that we will stay compatible, and this will require various concessions on both our and their behalf that will need to be negotiated. If we are in it, that entire process would be defunct - it might even have been counterproductive, and end up binding the EU or the UK to concessions they didn't want to make.

Only the UK government has ever pretended it could have been done any other way. Any kind of senior legal or diplomatic expert with any knowledge of the topic has said: you need to sort out the nature of your exit first. But we're still in political fantasy land at the moment.
 

Joni

Member
The sequencing is important because there is a strong deadline coming. You can do a trade deal at any time, but the Irish border problem, the protections for citizens and the divorce bill can only really be settled before the divorce.
 
The scuttlebutt is that DExEU is releasing something at midnight. Trade deal with Norfolk?

Hmm maybe the 'travellers' who have shut down Cromer are secret Government agents? *i <3 my tinfoil hat*

Btw, everything that comes out of Patrick Minford's mouth should come with an extreme health warning
 

Xando

Member
The sequencing is important because there is a strong deadline coming. You can do a trade deal at any time, but the Irish border problem, the protections for citizens and the divorce bill can only really be settled before the divorce.
Pretty much. I‘m suprised this is still such a big point for the british government.

I mean if the british government were prepared for the actual negotiations we would be talking about a FTA in two months instead of december at the earliest.
 

Uzzy

Member
If the UK Government had an issue with the sequencing of the talks, they should have raised that at the beginning, just as Davis promised to do. Agreeing to the sequencing, only to go back on that a few months later is hardly going to convince the EU that we're honest in our negotiating stances.
 
If the UK Government had an issue with the sequencing of the talks, they should have raised that at the beginning, just as Davis promised to do. Agreeing to the sequencing, only to go back on that a few months later is hardly going to convince the EU that we're honest in our negotiating stances.

Or strengthen the notion that the UK negotiating team doesn't know what it's doing.
 
Off-topic, but I did it.

I said I'd leave because of how hateful this country has become (partly due to Brexit) - and I'm currently sitting on my flight to the mainland.

Feels good.

Edit: Of course it would be the last post of a page.
 

Tethur

Member
Nothing as interesting.

David Allen Green's just responded to last nights press release

1. Quick thread on Brexit, news and information.
2. Many deride/dislike the lobby system, based on Whitehall briefing and ongoing relationships between Westminster journalists and contacts.
3. But if that is where the useful information is, then it (sort of) works. Horse for the course.
4. The thing about Brexit is that little useful information is currently in Whitehall/Westminster - there is bluff and bluster instead.
5. Brexit simply does not suit the lobby model of political news reporting. Hence disproportionate space given to empty off-record stuff.
6. This is not to criticise the lobby- many great journalists - but key information is not now often with Westminster/Whitehall contacts.
7. The Brussels desks of most news organisiations are now better guides to how Brexit will affect the UK than anyone with lobby passes.
8. Brilliant people at @ftbrussels (especially @alexebarker) but also elsewhere, eg @JenniferMerode @Simon_Nixon @pmdfoster @mattholehouse
9. UK government still thinks domestic media are the most important audience. Ministers are approaching Brexit with a "lobby" mentality.
10. So we have daft embargoes and Davis giving desperate interviews, while UK lags behind on position papers and proper preparation.
11. UK may still get its Brexit act together, but ministers need to stop thinking only in Westminster/Whitehall/lobby terms. Not central.
12. Percival lost Singapore because things were pointed in the wrong direction. Brexit ministers risk making a similar mistake.

*ouch*
 

Maledict

Member
The current position is only a mistake if you think the government prioritizes the end deal over playing to the British media. They don't. It's important but not as important as the domestic policy position, and the current government has made the choice that fighting against Europe can bring them votes for years to come. We know this from the leaks earlier in the year - they want the fight with Europe. They are more concerned with positioning Europe as the bad guys than actually getting a deal with them.

In essence, the Conservative party basically wants the Daily Mail to run that front page with Theresa May as the new Iron Lady every day for the next decade, and that's what they are working towards above all other priorities.
 

8bit

Knows the Score
Off-topic, but I did it.

I said I'd leave because of how hateful this country has become (partly due to Brexit) - and I'm currently sitting on my flight to the mainland.

Feels good.

Edit: Of course it would be the last post of a page.

Welcome (back?) to Europe!
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Off-topic, but I did it.

I said I'd leave because of how hateful this country has become (partly due to Brexit) - and I'm currently sitting on my flight to the mainland.

Feels good.

Edit: Of course it would be the last post of a page.

Congrats. Hope you find a nice place to live.
 
Going somewhere nice?

By chance, I'm actually in Nice right now(!) - got a TEFL gig round the corner in Sanremo for a bit, then off to Salamanca, Spain.

Welcome (back?) to Europe!

My own personal Brexit.

Congrats. Hope you find a nice place to live.

One of the best things about Spain is how much further your money goes when it comes to finding a place to live. Paying less than half what I did in Coventry, and Coventry's not expensive.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
By chance, I'm actually in Nice right now(!) - got a TEFL gig round the corner in Sanremo for a bit, then off to Salamanca, Spain.



My own personal Brexit.



One of the best things about Spain is how much further your money goes when it comes to finding a place to live. Paying less than half what I did in Coventry, and Coventry's not expensive.

I visited Salamanca this spring, seems like a lovely city. Best of luck.
 

theaface

Member
The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT3| Single and on the market. Pls respond.

The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT3| Gone whistling.

The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT3| Bordering on insanity.

The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT3| "We'll call it a draw."

The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT3| Blame of Moans
 
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