AuthenticM
Member
The absolute earliest the console is coming out is 2019. Ain't never releasing in 2018 (which is next year, btw). Honestly, I see it as 50-50 between either 2019 and 2020.
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Pachter on PS5: Bets on 2020 launch now, PS4 Pro to become "default PS4"
- Thread starter Bitch Pudding
- Start date
ShadowFox08
Member
In 3 years PS4 Pro should cost $300, so it makes sense. Whether they keep making slim ps4s depends if they want to push 4k or not I guess.
Kazuma Kiryu
Member
Hardly surprised, honestly, Sony will easily coast to 100M+ sales. That's a lot of money coming from hw, sw and subscriptions.
I agree much more with this statement. Sony should not be afraid of the Xbox. They have no reason to be. They can wait another year to get a monster PS5 out. Microsoft following them with slightly more powerful hardware means jack shit.
They are catching people in the PSN spider web like no one's business. And games like Spiderman lol are going to be HUGE on the PS4.
Nevermind the holiday season coming up.
They are catching people in the PSN spider web like no one's business. And games like Spiderman lol are going to be HUGE on the PS4.
Nevermind the holiday season coming up.
They just finished Lost Legacy. Unless it's a massively scaled down project a game of TLoU2's magnitude needs at least 3 years of full production to finish.
Okami Haundo
Member
Oh gosh yeah, I certainty didn't mean to undersell that BC idea. I think a PS5 that's fully backwards compatible with just PS4 would be huge. It would definitely convince me to upgrade.
They didn't feel bad about the original Xbox going to 360.
I think they know cross gen will be more easy than before so you might get 4 years out of Scorpio with current games albeit, less fidelity and the S creaking along. With full BC which I expect from both, publishers will feel confident to build for two gens initially more than ever before but still a cut off like always.
MugiwaraCole
Member
That feels dumb given the X coming soon.
hanspampel
Banned
wow
Exactly my idea here. Anything else is fucking stupid at this point unless they have some kind of upgrade plan that would work.
But if they can do 7nm by 2019 that might be their ticket I guess. IDK though as Nvidia seems like they are not doing their next cards until late 2018.
2020 would allow Sony to get the absolute best tech in there.
RedAssedApe
Banned
translation?
Commanche Raisin Toast
Member
Where are those AMD roadmaps again? I feel like there was a really good explanation as to when PS5 *should* come and it had a lot to do with when certain tech milestones can be reached.
Monkeyball
Banned
It's not betting or predicting if you just change it as time goes on.
hmmm, I guess I assumed it's been in production since a little before the teaser trailer last year and they had two teams (one on that and one on LL). If they indeed only work on one project at a time, I guess we are looking at a late 2019 or early 2020 release then unfortunately :/
Bitch Pudding
Member
Pachter belongs to the top 5.000 analysts.
Krombopulos_Michael
Banned
I can see them doing what they did at the beginning of this gen where some games came out on ps3 and ps4. But that will only last a couple years and I'm willing to bet that those games will be on regular ps4 as well. No way games are designed for ps4 Pro. Games will either target ps5 or ps4, nothing will be exclusive to ps4 Pro and ps5.
PS4 games will be designed to run on the baseline PS4 through the current generation. The PS4P makes up a tiny fraction of the ~60 million PS4s that have been sold.
Finky Spunky
Banned
He's right. In the time between you got VR, and the second batch of AAA exclusives plus pre launch hype. I actually think 2021
RichiRamjag
Member
Some of you need to come to grips about this. Its not happening anytime soon unless a major change in priorities comes about for devs.
SlipperyFishes
Banned
I can see them pushing out the PS5 on the 25th anniversary of the PS1 in the west
September 1995 - September 2020
They could really make that a huge campaign
September 1995 - September 2020
They could really make that a huge campaign
RedAssedApe
Banned
and? that doesn't really change them pushing the PS4P sku as the primary one they try and sell to consumers after some point.
Oh yes, that's totally what they should do.
Pro becoming default? As much as I'd love that, normal PS4 owners would rage.
My only concern is that Sony doesn't wait too long. late 2020 seems just about right.
Although I imagine one concern for them is how to handle 'price sensitive' people who want top of the line power and graphics for cheap prices. Somethings got to give and I think the machine for the power we'll get will be considerably more pricey than usual.
My only concern is that Sony doesn't wait too long. late 2020 seems just about right.
Although I imagine one concern for them is how to handle 'price sensitive' people who want top of the line power and graphics for cheap prices. Somethings got to give and I think the machine for the power we'll get will be considerably more pricey than usual.
Site that ranks analyst predictions and investing performance. Pachter is in the worst 10%.
(The point is that he's a very poor predictor of anything.)
AstroNut325
Member
Sony is expecting a shipment decline already for their current fiscal year. No way it's 2020.
icecold1983
Member
Hopefully no earlier than 2020 to allow for a proper jump in performance
Inglorious_ Man
Member
I am hoping that the PS5 is backwards compatible.
MiloHoffman
Member
I'm only arguing that all the software will still be developed with the base PS4 in mind and not the PS4P.
I suppose it would be possible that the PS4P might be the main SKU a year into the future but they'd need to get the price down to $300 for that to happen. The majority of buyers will always go for the cheapest option available.
Jasong7777
Banned
I wonder how many Pros make up the total sales of all PS4 sold?
RedAssedApe
Banned
Sure. i don't disagree with that point. As long as there is no ps5 they'll need to support ps4 as the baseline system. Same with Xbox One.
you could probably make an estimate based on the 20% figure they throw around if you can figure out how many ps4s in total have been sold since the launch of the pro.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Approx. 20%, according to Sony. This equates to approx. 4 million PS4 Pros sold p.a.
I'm still sticking with my 2019 and people will be disapointed with the specs prediction.
Ultimately Sony found good success releasing the PS4Pro at a higher pricepoint while still selling the PS4. With Sony looking to extend their stranglehold on the industry it makes more sense to release a device with digital backwards compatibility at a higher pricepoint when sales are still good and to prevent any decline, then wait until consumers are ready to change ecosystems.
Ultimately Sony found good success releasing the PS4Pro at a higher pricepoint while still selling the PS4. With Sony looking to extend their stranglehold on the industry it makes more sense to release a device with digital backwards compatibility at a higher pricepoint when sales are still good and to prevent any decline, then wait until consumers are ready to change ecosystems.
Some Nobody
Junior Member
I've had my bet on 2020 for a bit now. The One X helped me confirm that. If Sony wants a $400 system they'll struggle to make one if they try too soon before then. It'll either hit $500 or be not a big jump from the One X, which by then will be $349 or so.
RoadHazard
Gold Member
This is what will happen.
TheUndeadGamer
Member
I could definitely see that. The Nintendo Switch did it and it was a successful launch. So, yes maybe an early 2020 launch for PS5 will be what happens.
Methodology seems shady though? NLP algorithms, apparently,
Elfotografoalocado
Banned
I think PS4 is going to be with us for quite a long time still. Hardware improvements are getting harder and more expensive to accomplish with the death of Moore's Law. AAA videogames (The ones that create demand for more powerful hardware) are getting more and more bloated with ever increasing budgets and an unsustainable work culture that is driving engineers away to other fields. We have reached a point where current consoles can run most conceivable videogames outside of super-complex simulations that wouldn't be that fun to play. (And very expensive to create)
In such a context, why not keep a console that can provide access to base versions of games for people with little money, and make a PS5 with a powerful CPU for high framerate and pretty graphics versions of the same games?
Trogdor1123
Gold Member
Ms won't go 2019 for sure, that's just over 2 years for the x
THE:MILKMAN
Member
I wonder if it feasible Sony (and MS) could opt to use 12nm that TSMC are using for Nvidia?
I think it would be cheaper to make and be nice and mature by 2019 and if they do aim to have a PS5 Pro then 7nm EUV will then be much more viable in 2022.
I think it would be cheaper to make and be nice and mature by 2019 and if they do aim to have a PS5 Pro then 7nm EUV will then be much more viable in 2022.
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