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Cryptocurrency |OT| Nothing from Money
- Thread starter Brandson
- Start date
Courtesy of reddit, here is a Tezos person providing some thoughts on how to divest of ETH: https://www.reddit.com/r/tezos/comments/6lu1w6/crypto_crashing_today_a_wake_up_call_for_the/djzwns5/
It sounds like he prefers unloading the whole thing at once instead of trickling it out.
It sounds like he prefers unloading the whole thing at once instead of trickling it out.
Aztechnology
Member
If you think a second year CS student can help at all feel free to ask me to do some grunt work. I'm always looking for small projects to help on just to get more exposure/experience. Although I understand if not, obviously in a situation like this trying to be an editor for the code can actually end up being more time consuming for you.
I've been reading up on the August 1 Bitcoin changes. On August 1, Bitcoin appears like it is going to hard fork, meaning there will become two Bitcoin chains, kind of like what happened with Ethereum and Ethereum Classic. If you hold Bitcoin before the fork, you will apparently end up with copies of the same coins on both chains. So the value of Bitcoins could be extremely volatile for a few weeks while the market sorts out what coins on each chain are worth. If the lesser chain persists, it might cause the dominant Bitcoin chain to decrease in value quite a bit initially until everyone figures out what they want to do. Any trading ratios between Bitcoin and other coins could also suddenly change dramatically as a result. It's also possible that not everyone will understand this initially. So assuming there is an 80/20 split of value between the two Bitcoins as of August 1, some traders might overreact to seeing the value of Bitcoin appear to drop by 20%, before the value of the lesser Bitcoin is re-absorbed by the dominant Bitcoin, and cause other crypto, like Ethereum, to also fall, before everyone realizes that that is wrong and unnecessary. If this description of events is correct, and it might not be, there could be a temporary decrease in value of all crypto in early August.
If anyone has a different view, I'd be happy to hear it.
If anyone has a different view, I'd be happy to hear it.
NiiloPielinen
Member
Sounds like Brandson and Walking fiend should launch an ICO for their bot-project 
A quick google search showed that there are some existing trading platforms where you can implement your own algorithms.
https://www.metatrader4.com/en/automated-trading/mql4-programming
edit:
also this:
https://github.com/kroitor/ccxt
A quick google search showed that there are some existing trading platforms where you can implement your own algorithms.
https://www.metatrader4.com/en/automated-trading/mql4-programming
edit:
also this:
https://github.com/kroitor/ccxt
I felled bitter when I sold my ETH 's at 260$, rebought at 290$, than resold 240$ again a week ago. Trying to catch the dip made my 7k$ profits (at ATH 400$) vaporated like ... ether to a mere 4.5k$.
But looking at these 185-200$ dips I feel 'oh well, it could have been worse'.
I'm going to stop trying to fight the flow of this thing. It's going down, no point in stepping in again.
Probably dumb question about the fork:e.g. going from Brandon's post if i have 1 BTC and it then forks, i have 1 BTC and 1 BTC classic. Both then at 2400$ which then dip heavily in price? They correct themself then to let's say btc new 2350 $ and btc classic 50 $? Or is the value half for both after the fork (e.g. 1200$ for both). Can't imagine that your coins practically double. Either way it's going to be a ride.
Made only little buys to stock up ANS in the last dip but want more. Time that it gets to a new exchange. The 1 ANS transfer fee on bittrex is shit.
A lot of people will probably be leaving their coins off of exchanges during the fork so this will contribute to the volatility as well. In the event of a chain split, it's much safer to leave coins in a wallet you control.
Less coins on the order books would make it easier for big players to move things in a certain direction.
No idea how it's going to play out price wise. I think it could easily go either way. Most people seem to be expecting a drop, which is logical, but many of those same people are selling in advance of the fork... I don't think there's really going to be many people that panic sell if they are still holding on August 1. It's possible that the big drop, if there is one, happens in the days leading up to the fork.
The Guy In Red
Neo Member
ETH at $195 right now.
I bought 6 for around $160 late May and I am drowning in regret for not selling them when they peaked at just under $400 last month.
Is there any recent price predictions on ETH? Cant see to find any proper analysis on it and BTC. Both seem unpredictable now.
I bought 6 for around $160 late May and I am drowning in regret for not selling them when they peaked at just under $400 last month.
Is there any recent price predictions on ETH? Cant see to find any proper analysis on it and BTC. Both seem unpredictable now.
I also wish I had sold above 300, but didn't firmly agree on the downtrend until the mid-200's. Convincing myself to sell then was difficult, and I waffled on it a lot, but I decided locking in some profits was better than losing money short term.
This is the best ETH price analysis I've read so far over the last couple of days: https://www.reddit.com/r/EthAnalysis/comments/6mzhbb/daily_discussion_13_july_2017/dk7kif4/
ETH and Bitcoin are both still trending down, so it's reasonable to assume that will continue a bit more. I don't know where that will end. I think there may be a dip to the 150-165 range sometime between now and the middle of next week. If I see ETH drop into the double digits, I'm buying. If it doesn't drop that far, it will be a harder decision.
CaptainZombie
Member
I so wish I would have also sold at $350-400 last month, but I was on vacation in NOLA and it took a dip but I kept HODL.
GDAX fell below USD$2250 on Bitcoin, but other exchanges haven't yet, so the current price could still hold up, but it doesn't look good. If all the exchanges drop, which seems like it's only a matter of time, we could be looking at USD$2200 Bitcoin today, which would put ETH at around the mid to low-180's, unless ETH overreacts and drops more, which often happens during a big Bitcoin drop. Frustrating that I'm about to be in meetings all afternoon.
CaptainZombie
Member
Eth is already testing $180-$184 right now. I don't think $160 is too far off for next week.
I feel like Bitcoin might dip below 2200 today even, in about 4-8 hours, which would break into the 170's for ETH.
I should have said 4-8 minutes I guess. I think breaking 2200 was premature though. It needs to give that a bigger test later.
CaptainZombie
Member
There it goes, now both are under.
What do you know about PIVX? I was thinking of maybe putting some money on that.
Zeus The Dino
Member
Finna hop on this eth wave, should i cop now at 190?
walking fiend
Member
I don't believe the market will recover anytime soon without a large number of people getting completely burnt; after Ether and Bitcoin rise hit mainstream, lots of people jumped on board. Essentially, buying Bitcoin and Ether became a fad, a hype; until this hype lasts, the market won't recover. Give it some time though, and so many people will start losing their money, that we will had headlines like 'Crypto crashing, people going bankrupt', hitting mainstream news outlets; then the market will start to recover, and thanks to all those people who lost their money, we will have stronger support levels.
Borboleta Amarela
Member
I bought half of my portfolio at ATH and the rest these last 2 weeks. Short term, it's a terrible investment losing almost half of its value so far however, the money invested makes no difference to me in the short term. I'll just wait for the inevitable comeback and beyond.
Remember the 2008 financial crash? It was the end of the world and now the NASDAQ index has more than reached those past highs. Everything comes back around. It's just a matter of timing and not being too greedy.
Unless you really need the money to survive, don't panic sell people.
Remember the 2008 financial crash? It was the end of the world and now the NASDAQ index has more than reached those past highs. Everything comes back around. It's just a matter of timing and not being too greedy.
Unless you really need the money to survive, don't panic sell people.
ETH/BTC ratio actually increased after this Bitcoin dip. That's noteworthy. Previously, ETH needed to rise like a rocket ship to grow the ratio significantly. I don't recall the ratio growing like this due to a Bitcoin fall before. Not sure what to make of that yet.
Bitcoin "should" be worth something like USD$1500 in my mind. Its current price is too high. Maybe ETH won't actually end up dropping as much to match Bitcoin after all though. Much to digest.
Bitcoin "should" be worth something like USD$1500 in my mind. Its current price is too high. Maybe ETH won't actually end up dropping as much to match Bitcoin after all though. Much to digest.
It's still staying pretty stubborn around the 185-195 level. Wherever it moves from here will be significant since this is the longest hold we've seen in weeks.
I can't tell if ETH is decoupling from Bitcoin or just that ETH's order book was filled with buy orders near 180 (from the previous dips into 180 that just missed 170), that buyers couldn't change fast enough at the time Bitcoin dropped. We will see what happens to ETH when Bitcoin bounces back up.
walking fiend
Member
I am not really sure what is in your curriculum, but there is a topic you might be interested in if you have taken courses in algorithms or machine learning.
One idea which I doubt I'll have time to implement anytime soon [like in the next year or so], is the statistical analysis of the strategies used to make buy/sell decisions. Normally, each person uses a set of indicators and parameters to decide whether s/he should buy or not. However, when we use these different indicators [CCI, RSI, moving averages, volume/price etc.] we are essentially trying to extrapolate the data, and data extrapolation always has some uncertainty with it. So, there is a confidence level associated with our extrapolation, and sometimes we can be highly confident in our extrapolations and sometimes less.
Now, it would be interesting if we could find out the parameters that affect the confidence level of these extrapolations, because having found those parameters, we can then find out when our extrapolations don't have a high confidence level and thus are giving us risky predictions [meaning there is a chance for higher reward but also a chance for higher loss]. Then, based on how conservative one is in his/her trading, one can decide when to enter the market and when not to.
I am pretty sure there are some Ether holders with enough coins to artificially manipulate the market; I've seen it happen before, by people having over 10,000 Ethereum [i.e. I suspect Ether might drop abruptly]
Interficium
Banned
At this point I think if you're looking for an entry point you should wait until august.
Aztechnology
Member
The only way I can think to do confidence level of the extrapolations is long term pattern watching unfortunately with the extreme level or volatility and relative youth of a lot of the Crypto coins it's harder to gauge. At least thankfully we can see they generally align with the pattern ETH and BTC follow. Everything seems to shift within a margin of those two.
I guess my question is do these market trends seem fairly consistent with data we see in normal markets or is it a different beast (I assume the latter because it's far too unstable, more like something akin to penny stocks). I've never had enough money to seriously do any day trading so my exposure is very limited. The data for many of the markets is pretty limited, so you'd have to extrapolate from other similiar markets with more data. Maybe this has already been done with the studies options we see. I don't know. In all honesty I know very little, as I said before I'm quite green in terms of trading.
It really does feel manipulated right now. The price is being pumped up artificially for some reason. This really doesn't look like the time to buy.
CaptainZombie
Member
Yeah, it is crazy how in general crypto is so manipulated. I see some of the guys on youtube schilling their coins like mad and there are so many people that go along with their pump and dump scheme, it's not even funny.
I think as we near August, we could see a $1700 BTC and $120-$130 Eth. It is looking more and more like this, considering how close we are ta $2K BTC.
I've added more ANS today, I have some high hopes in their tech.
walking fiend
Member
wow, this bitcoin free fall... Has dropped 10% since this morning... I have a feeling Ether might evaporate over the night and will take down everything else with it too. Ether is forming channels and then is exiting from the channel in a seemingly upward movement which actually creates a channel with a lower average; don't fall into the trap
Is tomorrow the 1st day of August? haha
CaptainZombie
Member
LOL! It sure feels like we are getting there sooner than later.
Just looked now and BTC at $2085.....eeeek.
I am debating going to sleep with a buy order in the 170s, to flip in the 180s or higher if lucky. I don't want the order to be too high in case of a major collapse, but I also want to give it a good chance of being picked up. Tough call. The way this has been going, every next $10 decrease is getting tested multiple times so I don't see it just flying through the 170s once without revisiting those levels many more times. Risk seems low.
walking fiend
Member
Don't do it [sorry if I am coming off as arrogant using imperative language; I just feel bad when people lose their money
You are probably a better trader than I am though and might be making a better call]. The market is being manipulated to hell and back. BTC jumped $100 since my last post [and it seems it'll crash again?]. We normal people have little chance of making money right now, particularly while asleep lol; maybe post an order of $25 just to see how it goes (I have been trading with only $300 since a few days ago and decided to only add to it if I can increase it daily; right now I am at $250 and am trading with only $30 lol; I had some bad calls, but I am pretty sure if I were trading with more I'd panic out a few times and lose a lot of money. To be honest, I think until the market stabilizes, we will probably be wasting both our time and money trying to get into the market)
But where would it go from there?
Aztechnology
Member
Don't do it [sorry if I am coming off as arrogant using imperative language; I just feel bad when people lose their money
(I have been trading with only $300 since a few days ago and decided to only add to it if I can increase it daily; right now I am at $250 and am trading with only $30 lol; I had some bad calls, but I am pretty sure if I were trading with more I'd panic out a few times and lose a lot of money. To be honest, I think until the market stabilizes, we will probably be wasting both our time and money trying to get into the market)
Are you recommending pulling out soon? I'm still up, but only about $30 now as of right now on my $300 I kept in. As opposed to like a little over $400 a few days ago. I had planned to keep it in for the long haul. But maybe I should cash out now and wait for greater bottom outs. It's definitely still trending down.
Edit: I pulled just now around 5 am PST.
Future PhaZe
Member
Surprised ETH isn't testing 150/160 right now given BTC's dive.
It is surprising. Possible reasons:
(1) Bitcoin holders moving to Ethereum temporarily when hearing that exchanges are shutting down Bitcoin trading for August 1;
(2) manipulators trying to swell the ETH/BTC ratio so that whenever Bitcoin recovers, Ethereum artificially pumps, before crashing some more;
(3) the market generally agreeing that Ethereum has dropped enough.
Could be a little of all of the above. I think it will still go down though, and could do so suddenly if any of these artificial factors disappear.
walking fiend
Member
Good decision; I expect both Ether and BTC to hit their daily averages before they start recovering (~$100 and ~$1600).
CaptainZombie
Member
There we go under $2k BTC and Eth in the 170's.
Borboleta Amarela
Member
Anyone shorting this decline?
I'm considering doing this until 1st of August.
I'm considering doing this until 1st of August.
Unknown Soldier
Member
Shorting has always been The Most Dangerous Game. You can make good money on declines though so good luck!
Borboleta Amarela
Member
You're right. It's risky but since the market is on a downward trend might as well try it and watch it closely. If it starts to bounce back I'll just close my position.
Borboleta Amarela
Member
Good observation. Hadn't thought about that in those high percentages.
That's why I'm watching it closely. On the first sign of trouble I'll bail. Just trying to make some chump change.
That's why I'm watching it closely. On the first sign of trouble I'll bail. Just trying to make some chump change.
Don't do it [sorry if I am coming off as arrogant using imperative language; I just feel bad when people lose their money
(I have been trading with only $300 since a few days ago and decided to only add to it if I can increase it daily; right now I am at $250 and am trading with only $30 lol; I had some bad calls, but I am pretty sure if I were trading with more I'd panic out a few times and lose a lot of money. To be honest, I think until the market stabilizes, we will probably be wasting both our time and money trying to get into the market)
Any input is helpful when making these calls. There is a lot of self-doubt involved. I decided not to do it, and it didn't drop that far overnight anyway. It did however drop to about 50 cents below the price I had in mind today before bouncing a bit, so it would have been picked up today. The bounce wasn't that significant though so not much opportunity missed yet.
My current plan is to DCA buy some ETH if/when Bitcoin goes below a certain RSI on the 4 hour charts for a prolonged amount of time again this weekend, if all other signs point to that being worthwhile.
The Guy In Red
Neo Member
Any fruitful advice in terms of how to prep for the upcoming fork?
For instance, BTC holders have been advised to control their private keys etc. Any advice going around for ETH? My ETH is currently in my Ethereum Wallet desktop app. Is there a recommended procedure similar to BTC on order to minimise the effect of the fork?
For instance, BTC holders have been advised to control their private keys etc. Any advice going around for ETH? My ETH is currently in my Ethereum Wallet desktop app. Is there a recommended procedure similar to BTC on order to minimise the effect of the fork?