Originally Posted by Dreams-Visions
Very nice thread, OP. Good work. Whatever device you pick up, know we all are about to be eatin!
strictly speaking, that's a function of how many units of hardware are sold and how well the games attach rate is. If the attach rate is good and hardware is in homes, developers will come. I wouldn't lose sleep over whether EA or Ubi are making games for VR. It's really just a matter of time.
I've kind of touched on this in the past:
The price of entry is going to be substantial, and as a byproduct of that barrier, the install base is going to be relatively slim. 3rd party developers (indie is most certainly included within this demographic) always dictate the success, or lack thereof, of any piece of gaming hardware. In an industry that is anything but stable, publishers and developers have become less willing to take risks, and supporting VR in any meaningful way would be counter intuitive to that phenomenon. They're all about about the safe bet, and unfortunately for VR, the safe bet isn't developing games exclusively for an install base (owning a VR headset) of an install base (owning a Playstation 4, flagship phone or Computer powerful enough to utilize VR) of an install base (gamers in general).
This is the fate of all peripheral add-ons. 3rd party developers are already reluctant to develop exclusively for a platform, due to the fact that it needlessly restricts the sales potential of their software. What makes people think they're going to be willing to inject considerable resources into an even smaller pot? Yes, they'll cover their bases to ensure that they don't completely miss the boat in the off chance that it ultimately does succeed, but this typically comes in the form of a publisher utilizing one of their lesser teams, or worse, simply tacking on VR support on an existing game that wasn't built from the ground up to utilize the technology.
It's kind of a vicious cycle. Peripherals require a constant stream of quality games to entice consumers, but publishers are unwilling to provide them until the install base is worth investing in. The Kinect had an install base exceeding 24 million, and 3rd party developers still failed to support it due to the fact that it made more sense to develop for the combined install base of 160+ million between the Xbox 360 and Playstation 3.
I own an Oculus Rift DK2, Galaxy S7/GearVR and am expecting my consumer Oculus Rift in late March/Early April. I'm personally not worried about the technology at the forefront of its retail existence, because early adopters will literally purchase anything and everything to test out the new tech. But a few years from now? I'm not quite as hopeful. I actually think stuff like GearVR might have a better chance of cracking open the market, especially if Oculus is able to strike similar deals with other phone manufacturers similar to the one they have with Samsung.
Hope I'm wrong though!