Yes, because it's China and they're the biggest trading partner of NK.
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China Central Bank orders Banks to stop doing business with North Korea
- Thread starter dolabla
- Start date
Yes, because it's China and they're the biggest trading partner of NK.
Red Arremer
Member
North Korea is pretty much dependent on China in order to exist. The past sanctions all had China not participate in any significant way or were marginal due to China's veto in the UN, but now China is straight up taking the cashflow away from NK.
This is enormous.
North Korea being a buffer state between China and the US-allied SK/Japan is very much China's goal, which is why NK has been kept on life support for so long. However, as pointed out before, North Korea's antics have increased the dangers to China both directly via a potential nuclear war right at their borders plus tons of refugees, and indirectly through other countries (esp. Japan) moving to bulk up their military, thus threatening China's regional dominance.
It's very much in China's interest to keep North Korea on a short leash, but still alive.
NATO? South Korea is not apart of NATO.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Not that plausible when direct acts of war would lead to a 100% chance of Kim getting smoked. The citizens of North Korea have been starving for decades and they haven't couped jack shit.
Yes. China is slapping North Korea and telling them to sit the F down.
I suspect that the recent "improvements" in their ballistic and yield capabilities are actually being lubricated by an outside actor. Not China. There's only one nuclear-capable nation that benefits from NK being a pain in the ass right now. See also Cuban diplomats.
China doesn't like either the brinksmanship, nor the influence of that other nation.
China realizes that the NK buffer is less and less useful as relationships are (relatively) normalizing with Asian and Western nations via capitalism, and the risks are now outweighing the benefits.
But they helped make this mess and have limited options. They don't want war. they don't want a humanitarian catastrophe. they don't want reunification. I think they are unhappy with the fat idiot they helped cement in place.
The only way for a coup to succeed in NK would be if the generals get guarantees from China. China would rather annex than allow a reunification, but I have no idea what that could look like in a decade.
To add to this, South Korea may choose to create their own nuclear weapons if they feel threatened by North Korea and don't believe they can rely on the U.S. for their safety. In two words: Nuclear proliferation.
Yes and no. In general, the JMSDF is technologically superior to the PLAN, but the limits to their employment and their smaller size means that the former isn't going to be a proper threat to the latter any time in the near future. However, an expanded Japanese military and a loosening of the Japanese constitution means that China will have to divert forces and other resources to account for their greater capability. Moreover, it serves as a potential threat for the next few decades, so that's something that China would prefer to avoid.
However, most of the Japanese buildup is a response to the the growth of the PLAN and not to North Korea's actions. And China is ever interested in sustaining that military expansion despite doing so at the cost of a naval race in East Asia.
I don't think that China expects a war to break out, but the possibility will have to enter their calculations at some point. But that's going to be more pointed at the US than it is at North Korea because North Korea is a more predictable actor.
The most likely suspect is Ukraine. They have ballistic missile experience and they need the money. For nuclear capability, the culprit is more likely to be Pakistan.
Japan is not interested in building nuclear weapons. The public approval to do so would be in the single digits.
They already have a strong navy and air force, I suspect that those growing significantly would be China's real worry, not Japan building nuclear weapons.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
no
a war with the US would lead to his death and end of regime, guaranteeing a "coup"
avoiding a risk of a coup would mean executing people internally
Red Arremer
Member
I would be surprised if they didn't enforce it.
Price Dalton
Member
Seems intentional to me.
I'm pretty sure the poster was referring to the Russians.
No. This is more likely due to North Korea's flaunting of their nuclear weapons and how it may lead to proliferation across the region. Remember that China doesn't want them to have nukes either, they just want North Korea to exist as it has since the war: a huge buffer zone between them and the nearest US military base.
Exactly, we've already seen what him avoiding a coup looks like when he killed his brother(?) in Indonesia(?). It'd be assassinations of general and family members, not nuclear war.
But the Russians don't make any sense though. They don't need the money from North Korea, and they're invested in deescalation in the Korean Peninsula.
jimmypython
Member
what if Russa invades NK.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
That's always been the case for a long time now. One thing that's changed is the new administration framing the North Korea issue as China's responsibility and tying it to their national pride.
What if space aliens give us Half Life 3?
There was also speculation that China was the one who was sheltering his brother, so NK's assassination of him was in direct opposition to China's interests.
Frozenprince
Banned
Yep, they in no way want a unified Korea on their border and to deal with the massive refugee program.
They have to be proactive here as they are the only ones keeping the regime afloat.
IMO it seems that the lack of a true NK threat would simply allow the US to pull troops out of the ROK. What the ROK's calculation with respect to a US withdrawal is another matter though. They seem happy to criticize the US publicly while encouraging the main bulk of military activity that China finds threatening to their interests.
I'd argue a neutered NK would be better for China as it decreases the likelihood of a Japanese military buildup and increases American public pressure to pull troops and bases from the ROK.
I can see the statement from Xi now...
"We are proud to announce the re-integration of North Korea as a part of greater China. This historic land has ALWAYS (we just edited the maps and updated Wikipedia last night!) been a part of China, and having it split off for so long has lead to many sad nights on both sides of the illegitimate border."
The third biggest economy in the world with the support from the biggest and most powerful country in the world. Sure.
This doesn't affect oil. They haven't been backed in to a corner.
Either annexation or reunification would likely result in net QoL increases for the residents, but the logistics of making either happen are incredibly difficult.
He'd lose his country though. There's no scenario where he starts a war and is still dictator of North Korea within a year.
Are you sure? Russia seems invested in escalating tensions and destabilizing anywhere where it can weaken the influence of the West, Japan, (and further down the list) and China.
Positive. The last thing Russia wants is to have a war break out in the Korean Peninsula, and having more nuclear powers would reduce their overall security. Just because Russia may seem to want to rile up their rivals, they don't gain enough from doing so to make it worth selling their ballistic missile technology. Ukraine is in a totally different situation because they're too far away to be affected if Korean War 2.0 explodes.
Oh, and Russia doesn't really give a damn about Japan. If anything, they're actually angling for closer relations.
dragonelite
Member
I can see China annex north Korea if the US will act even more aggressively.
Then demand south Korea boot out the US army bases from its lands, if they want a unified Korea again. No way that China would want a USA based unified Korea at their border unless they want to stay contained a couple of more decades.
Then demand south Korea boot out the US army bases from its lands, if they want a unified Korea again. No way that China would want a USA based unified Korea at their border unless they want to stay contained a couple of more decades.
South Korea would tell them to shove it. Unification is becoming less and less desirable. Nobody wants to deal with millions of brain washed citizens and the cost of bringing a country stuck in the 60s to the 21st century.
RoyaleDuke
Banned
Oh man, are they gonna stop buying coal too.
This was one of the things Poligaf told me never would happen, so what if they stop buying coal?
I mean they are already starving, but I kinda hope all these sanctions make them reconsider their recent choices and stances.
That said I'm not confident in the ever increasing insanity of the current reality.
This was one of the things Poligaf told me never would happen, so what if they stop buying coal?
I mean they are already starving, but I kinda hope all these sanctions make them reconsider their recent choices and stances.
That said I'm not confident in the ever increasing insanity of the current reality.
evil solrac v3.0
Member
can NK get around this by creating companies in other countries?
andythinkpad
Member
Oh please, Japan should just rewrite their constitution and get it over with. Japan has had the highest military budget in Asia for decades. Who care if they call their army "army" or "self defense force."
shira
Member
Aren't the people just playing along with the ruse?
Zaraki_Kenpachi
Member
No, but it doesn't matter. Germany had a hard time bringing back the East and still does to this day and they were in much better shape than North Korea. Having a unified Korea would be devasting to the South and be very difficult to pull off. They would have major issues for decades if they try to unify. It's good in theory but the economic difference is unbelievable wide.
Yeah, the letter of importance in NATO here is the A, which stands for Atlantic.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Welcome to 5 months ago.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=230561159
Poligaf says a lot of things.
This is a really big deal if it's actually enforced. As stated earlier in the thread, China does not want THAAD on the peninsula, they do not want a stronger Japanese military and they certainly do NOT want a nuclear arms race in the region.
Now the question is how far does Putin go to prop up the regime.
Now the question is how far does Putin go to prop up the regime.