Good stock this week in UK.
PAL Charts numbers in two days will be interesting after Titanfall and inFamous weeks.
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PS4 surpasses 6 million units sold as of March 2nd
- Thread starter plasmawave
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Good stock this week in UK.
PAL Charts numbers in two days will be interesting after Titanfall and inFamous weeks.
SwiftDeath
Member
I'll go through the numbers so bear with me as I tend to be long winded
XB1 sales ratio is historically about 1817/3000 -> ~60% US: ~40% ROTW based on NPD numbers for November and December compared to 3M sold number at end of Dec. WW
Based on that we can estimate WW sales from NPD totals
Which as of the end of February, XB1 has sold approximately 2218K in the US
Thus WW total as of beginning of March is likely in the ballpark of 3.7M although that's assuming the same sales ratio in February which spikes up the install base due to its great performance in the US.
It is very possible XB1 has sold 4 million WW already. If so MS would certainly know about it so they are either saving the announcement for some reason or they do not wish to announce numbers as you suggest until their earnings reports
I don't see MS announcing a hard number they know will be close to 3 million fewer than the competitor regardless of the potential reporting policy.
George Claw M.D.
Member
We're at the mercy of platform holders and/or publishers to give us digital sales figures. I think the best we'll get are publishers' public revenue charts for each platform to tell us which platforms are doing best overall for each publisher. More people are buying digital this gen than ever before. PSN cards have been permanent figures atop Amazon's sales charts. Those are obviously going toward digital purchases.
anexanhume
Member
That's why they've been comparing it to Xbox 360 adoption rate lately.
Microsoft won't announce "We're only 3 million behind our competitor!", they're more likely to announce something like "We won March!" at this point in time. At this point world wide sales are no longer going to be trumpeted until Microsoft can close the gap.
NPD is really only a reliable source for hardware sales nowadays. There are too many other variables now for software sales. For example, nearly my purchases on PS4 and XB1 are now digital which aren't included in NPD.
makingmusic476
Member
Yeah, MS won't announce 4 million. They want the sales gap to remain as murky as possible.
anexanhume
Member
They've been working on it: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-07-02-npd-preparing-to-track-digital-sales-this-year
Yep. The Xbox One will always be behind in worldwide sales.
Yeah, I've gone digital too. Seems like a good chunk of other gamers have also. Think it's time to come up with a way to incorporate digital sales -- well, just as someone who is interested in seeing physical vs. digital sales for certain games (especially online only games like Titanfall).
SwiftDeath
Member
Yes I suppose that's a valid point. Although Sony's only announced 6 million sales so far. 4 vs 6 isn't as bad as 4 vs 7. That being said I guess there's always the risk Sony can just drop 7 million a couple days after MS announces 4
I wonder if those end of the year announcements affected MS's morale/decision making about sales number. They announced 3M WW, everyone was generally impressed than Sony announced 4.2 million WW like a day later
Yeah, this. They're not gonna announce any worldwide numbers, and my guess is the NPD's will only be given if they're good (which seems unlikely for the foreseeable future, but who knows).
TheRealTalker
Banned
ethomaz
Banned
I guess they won't announce 4 million because they already announced 3.9m in late December (shipped)... so 4 million now will look like they didn't sell anything in the last three months.
I know it is shipped vs sold but for general guy read the announce it will look like bomb.
SwiftDeath
Member
Ah yes that's correct as well. Which would highly suggest we will only be getting shipped numbers from MS's quarterly reports here on out
TheRealTalker
Banned
guess we will never know about XOs user-base :/
unless they outsell the PS4 in total Lifetime sales
unless they outsell the PS4 in total Lifetime sales
Hydrargyrus
Member
Yup, maybe everyone is too much, I should have said "most of us"... but come one, you have understood what I wanted to say
They'll probably try to give misleading figures but those can frequently be cross referenced to determine exact figures. Even useless figures like shipped can tell you a lot since stores are already overstocked with XBones the delta in shipped is likely going to be a meaningful figure. Though of course I suppose they could say shipped*...
* = "From China to our "retail" storage factories."
shinra-bansho
Member
If you're referring to sell-through, the Wii U hasn't sold through shipments to Japan as at end of Q3 (1.75M); Famitsu/MC (1.68M). And at the rate it's selling there's enough inventory in the channel to last a while (7 weeks worth).
Nor has it sold-through shipments to NA (2.61M), based on a 1.1x extrapolation of the NPD US figures to account for Canada (2.23M x 1.1 = 2.45M). This is through Feb 2014, 150K in the channel, which should exceed March requirements by a bit. Although a re-supply is probably more necessary.
Europe is a question mark, but has generally rejected the system; so I would imagine there's quite a bit still in the channel. Which would imply that they have yet to sell-through more than has been shipped LTD through Q3 (5.86M).
So on the whole I don't think Wii U sell-through has surpassed 6M. Shipments might just get there at the end of this quarter, but with a reasonably substantial amount still to be sold.
Dr. Kitty Muffins
Member
Everyone was hyped for a March showdown but it really doesn't matter anymore since if the Xbox One "wins" it was based on a price cut/game bundle combo that was ridiculous. I think we all know by now that if they had trouble moving the Titanfall bundle it means the floor beneath those numbers is vast. The figures will plummet for the console soon unless a permanent price drop is announced. Winning this month means very little in the long run if it means a fifty dollar price cut and a free game got them there. Rough times are ahead for the Xbox One.
The bundles and deals likely hurt the Xbone sales for the following months as well. Who the hell is going buy a $500 box with no game after the system was as low as $425 with a free game. Sales are going to depress like crazy unless Microsoft goes through with a formal price cut.
ethomaz
Banned
I can "almost" bet that MS will make official the Xbone's bundle with game for $450 at E3.
SwiftDeath
Member
It's highly highly unlikely we'll ever see the XB1 sell for $500 sans game ever again. MS bundled a game into the system at that price, not to mention retailers offering it for $50 less. Consumers will have noticed and on the whole hold off purchasing one if it were to be the original value proposition again
March is not a holiday season so consumers would assume that a game is included if the price is $500
The interesting question is if the Titanfall bundle is a limited bundle. If they go to standard SKU only for $500 with Forza 5 included then interest is going to be much much less I imagine. Curious if they just go with a $450 price everywhere and hope only potential customers and not nosy nancies on forums notice
Which is why there is no chance there wont be an official price drop announcement next month.
SwiftDeath
Member
Hmm I want to say that MS will be hoping to hold off until E3 for any official price drop. I think they might just try to keep up with the bundles and let the retail channels offer the $450 price unofficially before they announce it at E3
Maybe not though
Yup, it will be on E3 for maximum effect
Dr. Kitty Muffins
Member
I think even casuals will know something is up with all the Xbox One sales so soon after launch. They aren't stupid. We talk about them like they are idiots sometimes but that is far from the case. Even gamers who aren't as obsessive as us can spot this quite easily. The one month of positive PR that Microsoft might get isn't going to right the ship and E3 is still a ways off. They will have a tough time until at least the fall. They just better have a killer exclusive lineup for the second half of 2014.
Because of how prolonged these retailer prompted (read: absolutely initiated by MS) sales have been, I dont think they'll wait until E3 to announce a drop to $450 - it just wouldnt be a surprise or that impactful, so no point in waiting. I dont think they can wait 2 and a half months where lots of people will hold off on buying it if it goes back up to $500.
It put the price of the console essentially in line with the PS4 (exactly equal if you consider PS+ and Gold prices), so I don't see why selling a huge amount doesn't mean much in the long run or mean the showdown doesn't matter. Is the price difference the only advantage the PS4 has going for it? Of course not. If anything the showdown is more interesting.
As for MS, "winning" would show that people really do want to buy the XB1 if it achieves price parity with its competitor and offers compelling software. There is little doubt such a permanent price cut will be here by the holidays, if not sooner.
Edit - although I fully expect a cut by E3 at the latest.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
I predict XB1 will 'win' this month's NPD.
Judging how close the XB1 was to the PS4 last month, the logical assumption is that a price-cut plus MS's biggest title this year will put it ahead of Sony's platform.
Judging how close the XB1 was to the PS4 last month, the logical assumption is that a price-cut plus MS's biggest title this year will put it ahead of Sony's platform.
outunderthestars
Banned
serversurfer
Member
So they sell it at $450+Game for four months, and then at E3, their big announcement is $450+Game? =/
I dont think its all that bold. I think everyone agrees the latest a price drop announcement can come is E3. I just dont see them waiting two months to make an announcement that will surprise exactly zero people and will be nothing more than a formality as the reality is that the xbox one is $450 virtually everywhere already.
Just make the official announcement so everyone and their grandmas will know now and it'll likely lead to a couple more sales.
Prototype Viktor
Member
I think they learned their lesson. The gap is too big to continue giving numbers as Sony can always give out new numbers that will only cement the fact a wide gap exist. Until it's close
rokkerkory
Member
Could we see 2 price drops in a year? Maybe to $450 at E3 with FM5 and then $429 with other games for holiday?
Doubt it that would look desperate. One price drop and then a Kinectless model at $399 would be the closest to 2 drops in a year I could see.
At this point it will be interesting to hear the shipped numbers for Xbox One. They must be committed to production numbers of ~1M/month, right? If they can't ship everything, it spells trouble. But it is going to be really difficult to convince channels to get more consoles on top of the ones that are already stuffed there, so MS is probably already having some storage challenges.
So what do you guys think is going to be the "shipped" at end of FY2013? Is there any realistic way for it to exceed 5M?
On the other hand, can Sony increase their production capacity, and even if they could, would it make sense to? We don't know, what the saturation point at the current price is, and there may be little new incentive to get the system before October. So, unless you want one already, why shouldn't you just wait until the holidays?
I'm probably sick in the head, but I'm more interested in this numbers game than on any game I can play on my consoles...
So what do you guys think is going to be the "shipped" at end of FY2013? Is there any realistic way for it to exceed 5M?
On the other hand, can Sony increase their production capacity, and even if they could, would it make sense to? We don't know, what the saturation point at the current price is, and there may be little new incentive to get the system before October. So, unless you want one already, why shouldn't you just wait until the holidays?
I'm probably sick in the head, but I'm more interested in this numbers game than on any game I can play on my consoles...
rokkerkory
Member
who cares if it's desperate when you are saving money?
For all I care it could be $5, I would love that. But for the seller of anything, theres such a thing as perceived value and when you price something you have to factor that in. Too high and nobody wants it. Too low or constantly dropping the price in between short intervals gives the perception that your good or service is of a low quality. Its a fine balance.
XB1 will be over 4 million by now. March is a 5 week month so it should easily to clear 300K. The problem with announcing 4 million is the competitor having a decent lead in worldwide sales already. We'll probably only get fiscal year shipped numbers, just like Sony hiding PS3 sell through when it was behind 360. Hopefully MS doesn't combine 360 and XB1 numbers.
These. What Microsoft did was out of desperation.
If Microsoft had confidence & if Xbox One was doing so well, they wouldn't have had all of these price cuts & wouldn't have to bundle their biggest title that they made "exclusive" for their console, nor would they even have to delay the Xbox 360 version of the game in an effort to get more sales for X1.
rokkerkory
Member
I don't know... 2 price drops in year to me doesn't equate to "constant". That's once every 6 months, which is a long time.
But let's just say I'd rather have it drop than it being too high, which I think it is right now at $499 officially with no game.
Why would MS announce 4M sell through? Rather stuff the retail channels again now that many retailers got rid of some of their stock and announce 5M shipped!
I would say in the console space once every 6 months, especially in a console's first full year, is not a long time. If they do $450 with a game packed in, that'll be fine. No point in eating that big a loss on each sale (at $429) just to beat out the PS4 in the US.
If casuals will have that perception, they'll still have it if its announced two months later as opposed to now.
TropicanaTwista
Member
I could be incorrect but wasnt ps4 supply constraint during that time as well? Imo still too many variables that could effect sales for both consoles. I really feel like this fall/winter will really show the results.
Supply and production constrained. New Year celebration in China had an impact on production, iirc. That's in addition to the launch in Japan. I don't think February's numbers are that useful in predicting March.
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