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April 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, May 9th

As said in the other thread, something feels extremely off between the major nation-wide restock last week and the few restocks during the month. Potentially, last week in Japan could've amounted for nearly as much units as the extrapolated 114,000 units for US. It seems sincerly implausible, I just don't get it.

I'm like 99.9% positive the PR is basing the MK8 attach rate off the March numbers.

The MK8D PR states this:

To date, more than 2.7 million Nintendo Switch systems have been sold globally.

We know for a fact this number is from the previous fiscal year (March) and based on Media Create numbers alone from the first few weeks in April, the Switch is very close to 3 million.

Nintendo simply isn't ready to reveal April #s yet.
 

Welfare

Member
Maybe there is something to this being only the 1.02M that is shipped and sold through. If those 114K units were the ones airlifted at the end of March for an April restock, maybe the actual sea shipped units didn't make it to retailers until the week of MK8D. We know retailers got more units last week and anything below 50K nationwide is simply impossible.

Retailers would have to work with 114K units for 3 weeks until then and if Nintendo assumed that everything sold through before MK8D launched without knowing how many units sold through last week, they could go with the only number they do know, which is ~1.02M

So if this were true, Week 1 - 3 = ~114K and Week 4 is the unknown we need to predict.
 

Zedark

Member
Maybe there is something to this being only the 1.02M that is shipped and sold through. If those 114K units were the ones airlifted at the end of March for an April restock, maybe the actual sea shipped units didn't make it to retailers until the week of MK8D. We know retailers got more units last week and anything below 50K nationwide is simply impossible.

Retailers would have to work with 114K units for 3 weeks until then and if Nintendo assumed that everything sold through before MK8D launched without knowing how many units sold through last week, they could go with the only number they do know, which is ~1.02M

So if this were true, Week 1 - 3 = ~114K and Week 4 is the unknown we need to predict.

I find it very doubtful they would not have had a plan to restock in some regular fashion during April. We know the air shipping is a measure you only take because you want to add units quickly, so it most likely wasn't the original plan (bit expensive to have that as the original plan too). So, by your reasoning that would lead to the conclusion that they weren't going to ship any units for some weeks in April in their shipment plan, which is insane to me. 114k for 3 weeks is extremely low to me, even when considering MK8D releasing at the end of the month. So, I don't think this sequence of events is realistic.

I still stand by my own explanation that they are using last month's shipped units, assuming (correctly) that these units will have been sold through by the end of the month: Nintendo isn't going to just leave some new numbers for us to calculate easily off of their PR: they want the message surrounding the numbers of the new fiscal year firmly controlled. That's why we get last month's numbers: because they aren't ready to share this month's numbers yet, and maybe also because using smaller numbers makes the attach rate that they report look even better than they are in reality.
 

donny2112

Member
"The Americas" got 1200K shipped through March. Was there a further U.S. breakdown to get the 1020K for U.S. shipments through March?
 

Welfare

Member
"The Americas" got 1200K shipped through March. Was there a further U.S. breakdown to get the 1020K for U.S. shipments through March?

Just speculation on how this PR could make sense, and 1.02M fits with traditional US:Americas split of 85:15
 
Without providing too much detail I'm fairly confident the 114k estimate for Switch is not correct. I belive Nintendo just phrased things bizarrely. It doesn't add up with, say, things I've seen.

Stock was pretty dead through most of the month but the last week had some major shipments.
 

Abdiel

Member
Without providing too much detail I'm fairly confident the 114k estimate for Switch is not correct. I belive Nintendo just phrased things bizarrely. It doesn't add up with, say, things I've seen.

Stock was pretty dead through most of the month but the last week had some major shipments.

Yeah, we did finally get some inventory, but the month itself was... rather barren for switch stock.

They're selling out really fast, but they're also not sending us almost any. A few of my stores are getting shipments of 4-10 at a time. It's been rather sad for a new actual console. There's still heavy demand from the people who are strong Nintendo Enthusiasts who haven't been able to purchase them since launch. We aren't even reaching the option for casual audiences to start investing at this point.

But yes, I agree with Obliterator, the end of the month saw a bigger push, though how much we got versus other vendors is of course nothing I can speculate on.

On the other systems, the PS4 continued to sell well in its own regular momentum, though the XB1 seems to be flagging a bit. I don't know if it is because of the Scorpio messaging, or just the combined assault of a strong PS4 and Switch presentation of two platforms seeming to do much better on the market (Especially with virtually no major releases to talk about on the XB side of things, while we've had a constant stream of pickups for games on the Sony side).
 
On the other systems, the PS4 continued to sell well in its own regular momentum, though the XB1 seems to be flagging a bit. I don't know if it is because of the Scorpio messaging, or just the combined assault of a strong PS4 and Switch presentation of two platforms seeming to do much better on the market (Especially with virtually no major releases to talk about on the XB side of things, while we've had a constant stream of pickups for games on the Sony side).

As always thanks for the update Abdiel :)

Seems XB1 is gonna have a rough April and May until E3 gives Xbox brand some games (at least I hope). For now I'm gonna predict less 130K for XB1 and with virtually nothing on the platform these months it could drop to less than 100k in May. Switch and PS4 combo really has taken XB1 back.
 
Yeah, we did finally get some inventory, but the month itself was... rather barren for switch stock.

They're selling out really fast, but they're also not sending us almost any. A few of my stores are getting shipments of 4-10 at a time. It's been rather sad for a new actual console. There's still heavy demand from the people who are strong Nintendo Enthusiasts who haven't been able to purchase them since launch. We aren't even reaching the option for casual audiences to start investing at this point.

But yes, I agree with Obliterator, the end of the month saw a bigger push, though how much we got versus other vendors is of course nothing I can speculate on.

On the other systems, the PS4 continued to sell well in its own regular momentum, though the XB1 seems to be flagging a bit. I don't know if it is because of the Scorpio messaging, or just the combined assault of a strong PS4 and Switch presentation of two platforms seeming to do much better on the market (Especially with virtually no major releases to talk about on the XB side of things, while we've had a constant stream of pickups for games on the Sony side).

Indeed, it was a rough month for Switch shipments, up until the last week. Which, for us at least was the strongest it was all month.

BTW, not sure what things look like on your end, but on mine, Pro split for PS4 looked rather strong.
 
Yeah, we did finally get some inventory, but the month itself was... rather barren for switch stock.

They're selling out really fast, but they're also not sending us almost any. A few of my stores are getting shipments of 4-10 at a time. It's been rather sad for a new actual console. There's still heavy demand from the people who are strong Nintendo Enthusiasts who haven't been able to purchase them since launch. We aren't even reaching the option for casual audiences to start investing at this point.

But yes, I agree with Obliterator, the end of the month saw a bigger push, though how much we got versus other vendors is of course nothing I can speculate on.

On the other systems, the PS4 continued to sell well in its own regular momentum, though the XB1 seems to be flagging a bit. I don't know if it is because of the Scorpio messaging, or just the combined assault of a strong PS4 and Switch presentation of two platforms seeming to do much better on the market (Especially with virtually no major releases to talk about on the XB side of things, while we've had a constant stream of pickups for games on the Sony side).

Thank you so much^^ Would you say, just from your stores' perspective, that the Switch stock situation would keep it at PS4 level of sales for the month? Should we be thinking smaller for our Switch predictions?
 

Vena

Member
Common sense says they are using available figures from the March/End of FY reporting rather than internal hardware figures for the month (about which they have otherwise not said a peep) to make their statement.
 
Common sense says they are using available figures from the March/End of FY reporting rather than internal hardware figures for the month (about which they have otherwise not said a peep) to make their statement.

so they used 1 month (or 3 weeks) old Hardware data, but new Software sales to make the attachrate look more impressive.

Dat misleading Spin
Nintendo is the new Microsoft



/s
 

donny2112

Member
Common sense says they are using available figures from the March/End of FY reporting rather than internal hardware figures for the month (about which they have otherwise not said a peep) to make their statement.

Common sense says they did something wrong with their calculation. At this point, it becomes a guessing game of

Which mistake,
Did they make!

:lol
 

ethomaz

Banned
Common sense says they did something wrong with their calculation. At this point, it becomes a guessing game of

Which mistake,
Did they make!

:lol
Well there is the possibility they give us the right number and there is no mistake in the calcs :D
 

donny2112

Member
They sold 130k in the first 3 weeks of the month in japan, i wouldnt for a second think the usa got less than that

Plus, they had first day sell-through numbers on MK8DX. Even if there was nothing for April 1-27, there were many shipments planned for April 28th to support MK's launch, and they would've had those numbers, too. I doubt they would've only sold 114K in that one day, much less the full month up to that point.
 

ethomaz

Banned
I was thinking a bit more about it...

Nintendo forecast for FY2017 was 10 million Switch shipped... if nothing changes their plan they are actually planning to produce and shipped something around the numbers below:

Q1 ~2.0m
Q2 ~2.4m
Q3 ~4.1m
Q4 ~1.5m

For Q1 being around 2m units shipped that means they will produce/ship around 600-700k units per month Worldwide... so in April it is entry possible they shipped only 600-700k units around the world and using the some evidences:

JP ~200k shipped in April

That left for EU, US and RotW about 400-500k units shipped.

It is crazy to believe both US and EU received around 200k (or less) units each in April??? That indeed support the low number from Nintendo PR that didn't include the last April's shipments.
 
Japan April sales for Switch are ~200k

Japan March sales for Switch were 556.5K
US March sales for Switch were 906K
Ratio 1:1.63
 

ethomaz

Banned
Japan April sales for Switch are ~200k

Japan March sales for Switch were 556.5K
US March sales for Switch were 906K
Ratio 1:1.63
With 600-700k shipment WW for April the only way to fit these 1.63x are:

~200k JP
~300k US
~100k EU
and something else in RotW.

I can see even US being 350k but no more than that.
 
I was thinking a bit more about it...

Nintendo forecast for FY2017 was 10 million Switch shipped... if nothing changes their plan they are actually planning to produce and shipped something around the numbers below:

Q1 ~2.0m
Q2 ~2.4m
Q3 ~4.1m
Q4 ~1.5m

For Q1 being around 2m units shipped that means they will produce/ship around 600-700k units per month Worldwide... so in April it is entry possible they shipped only 600-700k units around the world and using the some evidences:

JP ~200k shipped in April

That left for EU, US and RotW about 400-500k units shipped.

It is crazy to believe both US and EU received around 200k (or less) units each in April??? That indeed support the low number from Nintendo PR that didn't include the last April's shipments.

With 600-700k shipment WW for April the only way to fit these 1.63x are:

~200k JP
~300k US
~100k EU
and something else in RotW.

I can see even US being 350k but no more than that.

Hmmmm... your logic seems sound. Barring an update from retail about a rough stock estimate, I think I will lower my Switch numbers. I wish this was a little more concrete, but it is nice to see NPD be exciting again^^
 

noobie

Banned
Code:
2015 

Xbox One March: 229K / 5 = 45,800
Xbox One April: 187K / 4 = 46,750

Weekly average up 2%

[b]PS4 March: 330K / 5 = 66,000
PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750[/b]

Weekly average down 34%

Code:
2016

Xbox One March: 242K / 5 = 48,400
Xbox One April: 168K / 4 = 42,000

Weekly average down 13%

[b]PS4 March: 330K / 5 = 66,000
PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750
[/b]
Weekly average down 34%
Thanks​ for the historical data as always, but 2015 & 2016 PS4 numbers are quite identical. Just wanted to confirm that they are correct?
 

Welfare

Member
Thanks​ for the historical data as always, but 2015 & 2016 PS4 numbers are quite identical. Just wanted to confirm that they are correct?

Yes. I round the numbers to the nearest 1K.

March 2015: 329,800
April 2015: 174,600

March 2016: 330,100
April 2016: 174,800
 

freefornow

Gold Member
Can you imagine if the PS4 outsells the Switch in April! (Gaf reaction)
I know I lowballed the PS4 numbers, but demand for PS4 is still strong isnt it? With Ninty struggling to supply, it could happen.
 

Unknown?

Member
Can you imagine if the PS4 outsells the Switch in April! (Gaf reaction)
I know I lowballed the PS4 numbers, but demand for PS4 is still strong isnt it? With Ninty struggling to supply, it could happen.
Could but probably more likely in May/June.
 

Unknown?

Member
If MS hypes Scorpio to high heavens at E3 I can see a few months being sub 100k with lack of games till at least September.
 
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