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Avatar 2 Delayed Till December 2020
- Thread starter Cheebo
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TDLink
Member
Sure, but we have a guy in KSwizz who is really good a crunching numbers and projecting plausible outcomes (come to the BO threads and watch him work). Case in point, dude was accurately predicting the performance of F8 vs. F7 almost a year out with scary accuracy.
Conversely, everything you are posting about expectations of performance are based on how you feel.
Not even close to the same but you are entitled to post just like everyone else.
Well, what he said was actually:
Which plays into what I'm saying...it's impossible to know right now.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Dollar variables aside, he is talking about a Through The Looking Glass drop in business and A2 still does more than "clearing a billion easy" as you said based on your gut feel.
When you have numbers you actually spent time looking at, I will give your perspective another look.
Till then, it's cool that you have some things to say in this thread as well as everyone else.
That was just a hypothetical. I don't think that Avatar 2 will drop 60% from the first film outside of China. Maybe if it ends up being terrible, or if they had changed filmmakers between entries. I was just trying to point out that big drops in most territories could still lead to a big number.
The Exchange Rate will be a major factor. Avatar made $2B overseas. That would be closer to $1650M with today's rates. That's $350M gone because the dollar is currently strong. Who knows what 3.5 years from now will look like.
Also, I have no clue what the Chinese market will look like in 3.5 years, or how Avatar will be viewed there. Based on the last three years, it seems evident that China can have an enduring interest in franchises that have lost their lustre elsewhere. Look at XXX 3. Or Resident Evil 6. Or Terminator Genisys. Avatar also tripled the all-time box office record in China back in 2010, so the original was huge there. Comparatively moreso than it was domestically. Even with rapid growths in the Chinese Market, it took 4 years for something else to top it (Transformers Age of Extinction). For all I know, a gross equal to the original's domestic take will be feasible in China by the time Avatar 2 releases. At the same time, perhaps that is wildly optimistic, and something like $400M is more likely. No one knows.
TDLink
Member
I completely agree with what you're saying. And those last few lines are all I'm trying to say. No one knows. It could be Avatar 1 again, it could be much less. I am disagreeing with people who believe it's a foregone conclusion this film will be one of the highest grossing films of all time due to the first one being the highest grossing film of all time.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Even with your understandable uncertainty of currency and markets 4 years from now, I still trust your process.
You need to start getting paid for this, mang!
ryutaro's mama
Member
No one said that and certainly not me. People said IF conditions remained somewhat stable it COULD still be Top 5 even with TTLG level drops.
You have created an imaginary person to debate against.
Compsiox
Banned
Watch Star Wars Episode 8 come out that same month and they delay it again.
Episode 8 is out in 8 months
Straight Edge
Member
JC is worth $700 million. He doesn't need to adhere to any time table. He has the top 1 and 2 spot for all time worldwide box office gross. The studio is not going to pressure him.
RecRoulette
Member
So Cameron can start work on the new Terminator now right?
Episode 8 is out this year. Han Solo is out 2018. Episode 9 is out 2019.
Or maybe he saw Alita post-production works and hate it, so he decide to employ Avatar techs.
near
Gold Member
I can only truly justify this delay in my mind if Cameron is fully supporting Rodriguez and practically co-directing Alita, in which case 2018 is not lost.
it will be using Avatar tech.
it will be using Avatar tech.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
A lot of the arguments about cultural significance would likely just drop away if people stopped using said cultural significance (such as it may be) as the primary load-bearing support for their stances.
Like, if you simply concerned yourself (and your argument) with what you thought of the movie as a movie, and didn't rely on either "But a whole bunch of other people think like I do, too!" or "Look at all this money" as the main fuel supply for that opinion, a lot of the arguing about what whole fields of scarecrows may or may not have painted on their burlap faces would cease to carry much importance.
I mean, that kind of goes for any popular entertainment, really, but so much of the "cultural significance" arguments come about because people don't want to, or aren't confident enough to, let their thoughts on the film and the reasoning behind those thoughts stand (or fall) on their own. They have to substitute large swaths of "Never bet against cameron" or "Who asked for this" or "2.7 billion says otherwise" because that is easier/safer.
Like, if you simply concerned yourself (and your argument) with what you thought of the movie as a movie, and didn't rely on either "But a whole bunch of other people think like I do, too!" or "Look at all this money" as the main fuel supply for that opinion, a lot of the arguing about what whole fields of scarecrows may or may not have painted on their burlap faces would cease to carry much importance.
I mean, that kind of goes for any popular entertainment, really, but so much of the "cultural significance" arguments come about because people don't want to, or aren't confident enough to, let their thoughts on the film and the reasoning behind those thoughts stand (or fall) on their own. They have to substitute large swaths of "Never bet against cameron" or "Who asked for this" or "2.7 billion says otherwise" because that is easier/safer.
ryutaro's mama
Member
My thoughts on this film in detail are well documented here on GAF. What I specifically liked and didn't like.
The truth is, in these sister threads, there is no conversation to be had. Mostly because, as you said, people aren't interested in talking about the film but rather how the film made/makes them feel.
Instead of spending time talking about, oh I don't know, what you might like to see in a sequel (whether you liked it or not) it immediately devolves into the "talking points" you described.
What I wouldn't give for an Avatar story speculation thread as well mannered as other franchises here on GAF. At least the actually TALK about SW and comic book stuff in those threads amongst the expected tomfoolery.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
But that is talking about the film. That would be fine. That would be interesting. That would be useful and enlightening. Talking about the film and how it makes you feel is absolutely valid.
Talking about how you feel, and then pivoting immediately to "and everyone else agrees with me so my feelings weigh more than yours do because 2.7 billion" or "because nobody can quote the dialog" or "because 3D is a thing now thanks to Cameron" or "because nobody remembers anything" is what I'm getting at in that post.
Avatar threads almost immediately derail because the movie itself isn't the most compelling topic of conversation, it seems. People who like it would rather talk about (and minimize/mock/put down) the people who don't. People who don't like it would rather try to make the people who do like it feel minimized/duped/suckered somehow.
The shit becomes very quickly partisan in a way that doesn't even happen in the superhero discussions (which were long ago split down brand/party lines in some sort of perverse generational pro-wrestling work that has since become a shoot), and I think it's because a fair amount of the people who keep coming into these threads to talk about this film and its (presumed) sequels aren't really interested in talking about the film. Myself included, admittedly.
The thing that most intrigues me is the potential box-office. There's a basic curiosity as to just what new weird direction Cameron is going to steer his tightly bunched bundle of movie fetishes (because he's obviously completely off-the-fuckin-chain now) but what interests me isn't the storytelling, really. It's people-watching. How will they respond? WHY? How much will they spend on it. Will they regret that expenditure? How fast will they throw money at it? How long? What weird pop-culture quirks are we going to discover in response to this thing?
That sorta shit fascinates me - more than the film itself ever has. And so I tend to look at the film from those other angles as opposed to the primary one: How it works/doesn't, and how that makes me feel.
It really does seem like even on the part of people who do like the film, what's more fascinating isn't the film, it's the way it can be used to bolster the weird "Cult of Cameron" thing that is maybe semi-facetious (worked into a shoot, brother), or its opposite number.
The most interesting thing about Avatar is the way people use Avatar. Cameron included.
Which I guess makes a certain amount of sense, considering.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Partisan is great way to describe the tone in these threads - Cam-servatives and Detract-mocrats if you will.
Also, bonus points for shooting into a worked kayfabe promo, brother!
Also, bonus points for shooting into a worked kayfabe promo, brother!
Bobby Roberts
Banned
This board needs a Heenan
ryutaro's mama
Member
Bobby "The Brain"
icwatudidthere
Bobby Roberts
Banned
This is delusional.
Caddywompus
Member
There's nothing stopping you from turning this thread into that, what are expecting for a storyline?
I'd like to see them continue to address real world issues that face our planet. It's probably too on the nose to have the planet heating up from the human's technology, say stations in lower orbit impacting that atmosphere. How to address that in terms of story would be difficult to solve an issue like ocean levels rising or droughts, whatever impact you decide to focus on.
In terms, of the Avatar program it will be interesting to see the advancements they make. Could there be an infiltrate and sabotage from the inside theme or the ability to access the neural networks of the various lifeforms remotely.
It is kind of hard to talk about it since there are so many directions they can go with this world and there's not a rich history to draw from the way other franchises you mentioned can.
Lord_Byron28
Member
Originally when Avatar 2 was anounced Cameron said it would be more about Pandora's Oceans and a lot of the movie would be about exploring it. Given the amount of delays and anouncement of trilogies, I imagine the plot has changed significantly. With that said I hope they continue to explore Pandora. As I found the unique world, creatures and background of the Na'vi. I'd like it if they continued to do that for the future titles.
I suspect humans will not play the main adversary in all movies.
Caddywompus
Member
Oh yeah, I'm sure they will expand on the various diverse environments they would be fools to stick to the same places we already experienced.
Below the Oceans would be interesting especially given Cameron's interest in deep sea exploration. But I don't know how you focus on that environment without human involvement.
Besides wouldn't it be odd to drop the human's Avatar project in a film called Avatar. I guess I assumed that was always going to be the hook.
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
You sweet summer child if anything GAF would tell you otherwise, and they number in the tens possibly even in the tens of hundreds!
The only thing that is interesting to talk about is the anomaly. The movie that is the highest grossing of all time yet has had no cultural impact. It's a mystery and we always want to talk about it because the mystery is more interesting than the film itself.
The film is boring and rather bland. It has fantastic special effects mixed with some bad alien design. The writing is poor and the acting is mediocre. It's not a terrible movie, but it's not a great movie either.
So what is there to talk about? It's a middling film from a great director that made a shit-ton of money and then disappeared from the public consciousness.
This is not a mystery. Cameron and Fox did not have the foresight, or desire, to commercialize the fuck out of it like Lucas did with Star Wars. If it's not constantly shoved in the public's face, they forget. That's why Avatar has been getting more exposure on TV over the last few months, they're trying to revive it in the public conscious for the opening of Pandora at Animal Kingdom. They've even got a comic and a video game coming in the next year.
elrechazado
Banned
It didn't have lasting cultural impact because they chose to not overcommercialize it? That's a new excuse.
Lol yep
They did try to commercialize it. They just stopped when people didn't buy the merchandise.
Here is an article from 6 months after its release:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/avatar-merchandise-strategy-going-long-24444
PanicFreak
Member
Speaking of long delays between movies.. when the hell are they going to continue the English Girl with the Dragon Tattoo series? Is that dead?
I wonder if it had anything to do with how goddamn tacky the blue aliens look. Who'd ever want to have those things around them?
They announced that they're getting a new director and non of the old cast is coming up. Might as well be dead.
rockman zx
Member
That's scary, more than 8 years from now. We will be playing games on Playstation 6 by that time.
That is some revisionist history you got there. The movie was absolutely commercialized. There were toys and video games and everything else. Nobody wanted any of it.
Boom. Thank you, numble.
Kaneda Shotaro
Member
I don't think Avatar is a great film, I found the last act to drag on and become rather boring but no, that is an insane thought. If the Obi-Wan film is indeed released in 2020, it won't compete with Avatar 2.
Yep.
"The most intersting thing about Avatar are it's box-office numbers and the discussion of them"
It's almost as if despite making ONE-FAFILLION BAZILLION JARILLION DOLLAS, it's not a very interesting movie at all. It's trite forgettable fluff that Cameron marks trick themselves into believing is good because they spent over a decade waiting for a new Cameron movie and what they got was a 3 hour PS4 tech demo.
It's almost as if despite making ONE-FAFILLION BAZILLION JARILLION DOLLAS, it's not a very interesting movie at all. It's trite forgettable fluff that Cameron marks trick themselves into believing is good because they spent over a decade waiting for a new Cameron movie and what they got was a 3 hour PS4 tech demo.
elrechazado
Banned
And two of it's biggest fans' arguments in this thread have literally been:
1. The plot had to be generic and bland so studio execs would greenlight it.
And
2. It's had no lasting cultural impact because they didn't want it to and didn't overmarket it.
Lol
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
I'm not saying it wasn't commercialized at the time, I'm saying there has been no sustained pushing of the brand via merchandise since then. Star Wars never stopped, even after Jedi. And nobody bought the toys or video games that tied in with Avatar's release because they all sucked. The quality was absolute shit on all fronts. I wanted and did buy some of the stuff, but lost enthusiasm after experiencing how poor it all was. Even the high end Sideshow stuff was bad.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
But why would there be if there's no desire for it even on the part of the fanbase?
You just contributed to that narrative with your anecdotal experience.
You initially tried to make it out that the lack of presence in the public consciousness was due to the merchandising arm not flexing (due to ineptitude? due to noble aspirations? choose your own adventure!) but then, after being shown that merchandising was attempted and pushed, shared a story in which you rejected the merchandising because even for someone who really enjoyed the movie, what they were selling wasn't very good. You didn't like it.
Star Wars' merchandising did slow down in the late '80s/early 90s. But they were still able to sustain it because regardless what they were selling, there was an audience that obviously wanted to buy all that plastic bullshit and all those bedsheets & lunchboxes. It's not like Star Wars toys were some sort of bastion of quality either.
Avatar's merchandising was unsustainable. And not just because it was ugly or poorly made.
elrechazado
Banned
Truth. Demand creates supply. Hence the original argument.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Speaking of which, this is from the Avatar Ride at Disney, apparently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_p4mn5BstQo
Yes, that's an animatronic Na'vi.
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
That is amazing and amazingly creepy looking.
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