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Welfare
Member
(03-21-2017, 02:39 AM)
Welfare's Avatar

Originally Posted by theprodigy

31% is somewhat inexact, +/-0.5% is like a 130k difference

Then

26,317,000 x 1.305 = 34,344,000
26,317,000 x 1.314 = 34,581,000

February range is then 860,000 or 623,000. 623K to 653K would fit with the note that consoles are down YoY, and while the note includes all consoles, the lack of PR assumes Xbox One is down, and there is this tweet from MatPiscatella

Mat Piscatella‏ 
@MatPiscatella

@Welfare_Queen_I PS4/X1 combined were up significantly vs Jan, but not quite up as much as 3DS.

3DS MoM was +77% and using the results we calculated from the January prediction thread, PS4 was 211K and XB1 157K.

So at maximum, assuming PS4/XB1 combined MoM was <77%

February 2017: <651,000

That maximum fits in with them being down YoY

February 2016: 653,000

If we assume that Xbox One is down YoY due to lack of PR, then the maximum is

PS4: <403K
XB1: <248K

Barely down YoY for both but that is the absolute maximum. We need more info.
RexNovis
Banned
(03-21-2017, 03:14 AM)

Originally Posted by Primethius

I think the Alpha, Beta and Last Chance demos are particularly the reason the game was undershipped. I think, while it's a different market, you can draw that conclusion by looking at the Japanese preorder numbers and what it actually launched to. It was expected to open at around 40k given pre-launch demand (pre-orders which are influenced by alphas/betas) but actually ended up selling far more and launched to 72k due to, I would wager, strong word of mouth immediately post launch.

I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying that the numbers for the Alpha, Beta and Demo were low? Just going by the coverage they received and the metrics on social media that would be fairly surprising imo. The strong WoM and positive coverage seemed to begin with the Alpha and Beta and the way they were iterating on the game in response to the feedback they received. I could see the pre orders being low and I believe that has been mentioned multiple times prior but there were other metrics to gauge demand from this time.
NoMoreTrolls
Member
(03-21-2017, 03:16 AM)
NoMoreTrolls's Avatar

Originally Posted by Welfare

Then

26,317,000 x 1.305 = 34,344,000
26,317,000 x 1.314 = 34,581,000

February range is then 860,000 or 623,000. 623K to 653K would fit with the note that consoles are down YoY, and while the note includes all consoles, the lack of PR assumes Xbox One is down, and there is this tweet from MatPiscatella



3DS MoM was +77% and using the results we calculated from the January prediction thread, PS4 was 211K and XB1 157K.

So at maximum, assuming PS4/XB1 combined MoM was <77%

February 2017: <651,000

That maximum fits in with them being down YoY

February 2016: 653,000

If we assume that Xbox One is down YoY due to lack of PR, then the maximum is

PS4: <403K
XB1: <248K

Barely down YoY for both but that is the absolute maximum. We need more info.

This kind of analysis is why I come to these threads. Thanks!
Kazuo Hirai
I really want everyone to know how much more Titanfall 2 sold than Nioh. It was a staggering amount.
(03-21-2017, 03:19 AM)
Kazuo Hirai's Avatar
Could any mod change my tag back to "member"?
I don't know who changed it but it looks hilarious now.
sirronoh
Member
(03-21-2017, 03:29 AM)
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Originally Posted by NoMoreTrolls

This kind of analysis is why I come to these threads. Thanks!

Seconded, this is fantastic Welfare!

Originally Posted by Kazuo Hirai

Could any mod change my tag back to "member"?
I don't know who changed it but it looks hilarious now.

Zetta
Member
(03-21-2017, 03:30 AM)
Zetta's Avatar
I'm so happy for Nioh, fantastic and fun game.
Primethius
Member
(03-21-2017, 03:33 AM)
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Originally Posted by RexNovis

I'm not sure I follow. Are you saying that the numbers for the Alpha, Beta and Demo were low? Just going by the coverage they received and the metrics on social media that would be fairly surprising imo. The strong WoM and positive coverage seemed to begin with the Alpha and Beta and the way they were iterating on the game in response to the feedback they received. I could see the pre orders being low and I believe that has been mentioned multiple times prior but there were other metrics to gauge demand from this time.

Yea, that's what I'm suggesting. I think this is an area where the simplest explanation is one that works best. It's far more likely, and a more plausible explanation, that the alpha/beta/last chance and pre-order numbers indicated a certain level of demand that was eclipsed at launch vs. Sony underestimating the demand despite having 3 different betas and preorder numbers telling them otherwise.
Bruce Springsteen
Member
(03-21-2017, 03:38 AM)
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GTAV doesn't stop selling
EventHorizon
Member
(03-21-2017, 04:53 AM)
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Originally Posted by lumzi23

Um, wouldn't 50% be 2.5/5 stars (though I guess that would be a 10 point scale)? I don't think that when reviewers are rating things based on stars that they are doing it with ranges of percentages in mind.

I was using a whole point scale. If you want to go to half points it'd look like this:

0.0 Lower Bound
  • 0.0/5: 0.0-9.1%
  • 0.5/5: 9.2-18.2%
  • 1.0/5: 18.3-27.3%
  • 1.5/5: 27.4-36.4%
  • 2.0/5: 36.5-45.5%
  • 2.5/5: 45.6-54.5%
  • 3.0/5: 54.6-63.6%
  • 3.5/5: 63.7-72.7%
  • 4.0/5: 72.8-81.8%
  • 4.5/5: 81.9-90.9%
  • 5.0/5: 91.0-100.0%
0.5 Lower Bound
  • 0.5/5: 0-9%
  • 1.0/5: 10-19%
  • 1.5/5: 20-29%
  • 2.0/5: 30-39%
  • 2.5/5: 40-49%
  • 3.0/5: 50-59%
  • 3.5/5: 60-69%
  • 4.0/5: 70-79%
  • 4.5/5: 80-89%
  • 5.0/5: 90-100%
Your last point is absolutely correct and was the whole reason why I went through this exercise. I wanted to show how silly it looks to try to directly equate a star system to a percent system. Nobody thinks of star ratings that way. A star system is flat out measuring something different than a percent system.
RexNovis
Banned
(03-21-2017, 05:47 AM)

Originally Posted by Primethius

Yea, that's what I'm suggesting. I think this is an area where the simplest explanation is one that works best. It's far more likely, and a more plausible explanation, that the alpha/beta/last chance and pre-order numbers indicated a certain level of demand that was eclipsed at launch vs. Sony underestimating the demand despite having 3 different betas and preorder numbers telling them otherwise.

Well normally I would agree but we have a historical precedent of vastly undershipping similar JP titles to consider here too. Theres just not much to point towards the pre release game tests being unsuccessful or low population given the traction they earned on social media and news sites. Metrics for engagement on twitter alone were fantastic following the beta with Nioh trending worldwide for quite some time. That to me seems like a viable way to gauge interest and demand but I suppose you could be right and that while many were talking about it not many actually played. But even still if that were the case why not consider online coverage and traction when printing and allocating release shipments?

Originally Posted by Kazuo Hirai

Could any mod change my tag back to "member"?
I don't know who changed it but it looks hilarious now.

From one consistently tagged member to another just accept your shame and hope that someday you'll do or say something substantially smart or (more likely) dumb enough to get it changed. Good luck.
Last edited by RexNovis; 03-21-2017 at 05:50 AM.
Primethius
Member
(03-21-2017, 11:33 AM)
Primethius's Avatar

Originally Posted by RexNovis

Well normally I would agree but we have a historical precedent of vastly undershipping similar JP titles to consider here too. Theres just not much to point towards the pre release game tests being unsuccessful or low population given the traction they earned on social media and news sites. Metrics for engagement on twitter alone were fantastic following the beta with Nioh trending worldwide for quite some time. That to me seems like a viable way to gauge interest and demand but I suppose you could be right and that while many were talking about it not many actually played. But even still if that were the case why not consider online coverage and traction when printing and allocating release shipments?



From one consistently tagged member to another just accept your shame and hope that someday you'll do or say something substantially smart or (more likely) dumb enough to get it changed. Good luck.

See, I don't agree with that because at the end of the day, it's still a hardcore geared niche title that does better in those metrics than actual sales will ever reflect. Along that line of thought, it's why no one for example would ever use GAF for an indication of a games popularity, I don't think Twitter metrics mean much when it comes to the larger gaming populace.

I'd see the other way if preorder numbers painted a different picture but the one market we have data for, preorder numbers were far lower than actual sales. And I think a conclusion that rests on preorder numbers being low but beta engagement being much higher rests on too much speculation.
donny2112
Member
(03-27-2017, 06:06 PM)

Originally Posted by Welfare

Then

26,317,000 x 1.305 = 34,344,000
26,317,000 x 1.314 = 34,581,000

February range is then 860,000 or 623,000. 623K to 653K would fit with the note that consoles are down YoY, and while the note includes all consoles, the lack of PR assumes Xbox One is down, and there is this tweet from MatPiscatella



3DS MoM was +77% and using the results we calculated from the January prediction thread, PS4 was 211K and XB1 157K.

So at maximum, assuming PS4/XB1 combined MoM was <77%

February 2017: <651,000

That maximum fits in with them being down YoY

February 2016: 653,000

If we assume that Xbox One is down YoY due to lack of PR, then the maximum is

PS4: <403K
XB1: <248K

Barely down YoY for both but that is the absolute maximum. We need more info.

#1 predictor for the month, for reference.

Originally Posted by Conduit

[PS4] 410K
[XB1] 210K

Chobel
I shouldn't make bets because every time I do my tag gets worse
(Today, 01:15 AM)
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Originally Posted by Kazuo Hirai

Could any mod change my tag back to "member"?
I don't know who changed it but it looks hilarious now.

You should be content that your tag is not something else.

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