Fenderputty
Banned
Blind hubris.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
- Thread starter aspiegamer
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Blind hubris.
Surely this coal CEO can see the writing on the wall. Trump keeps giving out random orders and nobody actually obeys him on other issues, why would the White House pay particular attention to your issue?
I wish the DNC wouldn't do this.
Honestly, the thing that stands out about it is that they clearly also think it's dumb. Look how little work they put in.
I think there is a right way to do this, but it involves saying, basically, "the reason nobody promises a border wall is that it's so dumb and inhumane it could never be done, and Trump can't get it done either."
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/...kers-making-strides-on-tax-reform-plan-241873
Not sure how I feel about this. On the one hand, I'm generally in favor of repatriation, but letting them bring back that money at a 'one-time low tax rate' seems like those companies are being let off the hook in a huge way?
Not sure how I feel about this. On the one hand, I'm generally in favor of repatriation, but letting them bring back that money at a 'one-time low tax rate' seems like those companies are being let off the hook in a huge way?
balladofwindfishes
Member
Calling someone's bluff when you know what they promised is impossible, isn't necessarily bad politics.
Abinash117
Member
Plus reminding people that Mexico ain't paying for shit.
Basically, we shouldn't mention the border wall without also mentioning that we're against it because it's evil. Otherwise we're normalizing it.
My pet conspiracy theory is that Manafort was ordered by the Russians to be trumps campaign manager in exchange for forgiving his Russian debts. He didn't take a salary from Trump, correct? Maybe that's how he convinced them to give him the job.
When he got fired, the Russians saw it as failure and reinstated his debt. He then immediately took on new loans (this was reported) to pay them off.
On the one hand it's totally insane, but on the other hand..,
Human Resources
Member
The only North Carolina redistricting hearing for constituents is today at 4:00 pm (in NC obv). Share this info if you can! If you're in NC and want to stop by, the hearings are being held at:
For a better list, more information, or if you aren't in NC and simply want to speak your piece, visit:
https://democracync.org/take-action/fairmaps/
For a better list, more information, or if you aren't in NC and simply want to speak your piece, visit:
https://democracync.org/take-action/fairmaps/
Yeah, that statement easily reads as grousing that Trump isn't delivering on the wall promised because they desire it. It's kind of difficult to argue that it could even be interpreted otherwise; if this had come from pretty much anything/anyone but the DNC and someone came in and defended it with "Oh, they're just pointing out the whole idea is bad," they'd be dogpiled out of the thread.
VendettaRed07
Member
Right, but we still have to mention it
You just cant allow such an outlandish campaign promise slide. Dropping it because you don't want to talk about it is giving him a pass
Aaron Strife
Banned
Those McConnell numbers are brutal. Wouldn't get my hopes up, as we saw him win easily with similarly bad numbers in 2014, but we should absolutely field a decent challenger against him. There's a handful of good targets in 2020, but it dries up pretty quickly. Imo, this is our list:
Colorado
Maine (no Collins)
North Carolina
Georgia
Montana
Iowa
Alaska
Louisiana
Kentucky
Imagine getting to 60 again in time for the next Democratic president...
Also, Roanoke College poll of Virginia governor has Northam up 7, 43-36. Wish those undecideds would go down so I'd feel better about this.
I'm guessing there's not a huge amount of room for improvement over Clinton's 2016 numbers because she punched well above her weight in Virginia compared to nationally - probably a factor of Kaine being on the ballot, but also Virginia's shift blue (I'd imagine) comes partially from former Republicans who recognize Trump as crazy. It's a state where it might be more important to hold onto any Romney -> Clinton voters than it is to win back any Obama -> Trump voters, because we know the first camp is part of a winning coalition.
Colorado
Maine (no Collins)
North Carolina
Georgia
Montana
Iowa
Alaska
Louisiana
Kentucky
Imagine getting to 60 again in time for the next Democratic president...
Also, Roanoke College poll of Virginia governor has Northam up 7, 43-36. Wish those undecideds would go down so I'd feel better about this.
I'm guessing there's not a huge amount of room for improvement over Clinton's 2016 numbers because she punched well above her weight in Virginia compared to nationally - probably a factor of Kaine being on the ballot, but also Virginia's shift blue (I'd imagine) comes partially from former Republicans who recognize Trump as crazy. It's a state where it might be more important to hold onto any Romney -> Clinton voters than it is to win back any Obama -> Trump voters, because we know the first camp is part of a winning coalition.
Ugh, Paul Ryan coming to town.
Honestly not exactly sure what kind of reception he's going to get at Boeing. The union is pro-Dem to my knowledge, but no idea how the rank and file lean.
Honestly not exactly sure what kind of reception he's going to get at Boeing. The union is pro-Dem to my knowledge, but no idea how the rank and file lean.
Fenderputty
Banned
Seems like one of those nuggets they're tossing in to get Dems on board or be painted as obstructionists?
balladofwindfishes
Member
What is Paul Ryan expecting going to the north west?
That's like the most concentrated liberal area in the entire country.
I think I was pretty explicit that the problem is not that they mentioned it but that they did it wrong
Yep. It's exactly what they have been waiting for. Cycle repeats after this until the next tax break.
Realistically though, if you give them a break from 35 to 30 and the new rate is 25, then it's seen as a middle ground where they are "penalized" for holding out vs. new rate, but also given a break vs. old rate.
I don't see any problem with that border wall statement. Obviously pointing out Trump is a bigot didn't work for Hillary because that's what they liked about him! The whole "he tells it like it is" bullshit was just code for "he hates brown people just as much as we do!". The better angle is obviously that he's an incompetent liar who sold you all a bill of goods.
They're deliberately not hitting beat #1 because it turns out a whole bunch of angry white rural people get REALLY energized when you do that and has a massive backfire effect.
SneakersSO
Member
I'm okay with repatriation as long as the revamped tax codes/laws make it so that the things American companies were doing to hang onto wealth overseas becomes outlawed & carries heavy penalties.
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
He's here in Boise today. My wife is catering the event. She said they refused to tell them what venue it would be at until a day or two ago for security reasons. She's plating the lunch at his speech and said security had to go through all of their shit and that there are protestors and bomb sniffing dogs and all sorts of shit. It sounds like a huge pain in the ass. It blows my mind that anyone would spend thousands of dollars to have lunch with an invertebrate.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Trump at 35/60 in Gallup today.
More important than the daily number is the trend going back months. Trump's approval has its peaks and valleys but they keep getting lower and lower. A "good" day for Trump in May would have him around 42/53 and a bad one would be like 38/57. Now a "good" day for Trump in August looks like a bad day from May and the bad days are where he's hitting 60 disapprove.
More important than the daily number is the trend going back months. Trump's approval has its peaks and valleys but they keep getting lower and lower. A "good" day for Trump in May would have him around 42/53 and a bad one would be like 38/57. Now a "good" day for Trump in August looks like a bad day from May and the bad days are where he's hitting 60 disapprove.
whyamihere
Banned
Again, though, this CNN article makes me pause on some of these numbers.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/21/politics/trump-favorable-rust-belt-election-day/index.html
Unfavorable means nothing if these people still want to vote for him. I guess I caution anyone who thinks that these numbers mean that Trump cannot win in 2020, because a lot of people who don't like him still voted for him. And even with her relatively higher favorables, people that hated both candidates still voted for Trump.
So basically, please don't nominate someone as reviled as Hillary Clinton, Dems. Thanks.
Really sorry to hear that. You did good. Thanks for trying to make the world a better place.
BoboBrazil
Member
Religious wars can't be won. Us continuing to stay there is just a waste of life and resources.
Also I bet that Trump rally doesn't happen tonight. Too many protestors are going to show up.
Also I bet that Trump rally doesn't happen tonight. Too many protestors are going to show up.
Box of Kittens
Banned
There was always going to be more room to move the approvals than the favorables since the latter were starting so low. The people who didn't like Trump but voted for him anyway because a "successful" businessman could turn the country around (and because they also didn't like Clinton) were going to be the lowest hanging fruit in terms of voters to flip.
Not saying 2020 is in the bag or anything (it's not inconceivable that his numbers go up between now and then) and we certainly shouldn't repeat the mistakes of (a) nominating someone unpopular and (b) trying to make the campaign exclusively about Trump's character. Certainly though, the trend in Trump's approvals is good news.
Not saying 2020 is in the bag or anything (it's not inconceivable that his numbers go up between now and then) and we certainly shouldn't repeat the mistakes of (a) nominating someone unpopular and (b) trying to make the campaign exclusively about Trump's character. Certainly though, the trend in Trump's approvals is good news.
Fine with me as long as it is due to numbers, not violence.
I think people are in general grossly underestimating Trump's chances to win re-election. It will be much easier for him to turn it around in 2020, even with mid-30s and dropping approval ratings, than it was for him to win the first time around. Once you're in, you're in, and voters can be very skittish about upending that status quo.
whyamihere
Banned
Yes yes, I just don't want anyone to think THERE'S NO WAY HE COULD BE REELECTED WITH BAD NUMBERS.
I also don't know about this and don't think this is right.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Is Phoenix rally today or tomorrow?
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I was more nervous about 2016 than I am about 2020. Hillary was despised by large swaths of people. Democrats would have to actively try to find someone with that much political baggage and unfavorability to run.
Box of Kittens
Banned
I disagree. I would argue there's a tendency for people to overestimate the difficulty in beating an incumbent president because the last three were re-elected. However, all three had decent-to-good approvals around election time. I wouldn't be too confident right now because the election is a long way away and there's a lot of uncertainty, but in order to get re-elected he'll need to convince people he isn't incompetent and he'll have a much harder time getting away with making wild promises based on not having a real track record.
Trump needed a perfect storm of factors to win last year. He's the president now. He can give some meager middle-class tax cuts, juice the economy for a short-term burst, and maybe do another everybody-loves-this military strike in 2020 to grease the wheels just long enough to get through re-election. He doesn't need to hit 60 percent approval and coast on it for three years to make it through again, he just needs to push the needle a little bit right at the finish line.
Our best chance at beating Trump is for someone on the right to try and primary him. Not that he would lose a primary challenge, but it would weaken his standing. If there is no Republican primary in 2019/2020, I feel less confident about a Dem winning.
Our best chance at beating Trump is for someone on the right to try and primary him. Not that he would lose a primary challenge, but it would weaken his standing. If there is no Republican primary in 2019/2020, I feel less confident about a Dem winning.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Today, but it already sounds like there will be some big protests so the bitch may pull out, like his dad should have.
Box of Kittens
Banned
No one is saying he needs to maintain 60% approval for three years to get re-elected. But he sure as hell needs to improve his numbers from where they are now (which again, I am not saying can't happen) for "pushing the needle a little bit right at the finish line" to save him. It's one thing to go into election season sitting at 45, and another entirely to go in sitting at 35.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Obama was considered vulnerable in 2012, despite a nice list of accomplishments and higher approval than Trump. Trump will be bogged by with 4 years of constant scandals, no accomplishments, and a low approval.
Trump can't cut taxes and might not even have the House or Senate at this point to make an attempt.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Also, I would be shocked if Trump didn't get a primary challenge in 2020.
whyamihere
Banned
Also, Obama won 53% of the vote in 2008. He had room to drop in 2012 and still win.
Trump won 46% of the vote in 2016. He doesn't have a lot of room to lose any of his voters.
Trump won 46% of the vote in 2016. He doesn't have a lot of room to lose any of his voters.
IggyChooChoo
Member
Some dark predictions involve Trump replacing Yellin next February with a stooge who will irresponsibly cut interest rates in 2020, and deal with fallout from inflation in 2021 after Trump's wins reelection. So getting a responsible Fed chair is critical, too.
eBay Huckster
Member
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
My wife is rad. Paul Ryan came over to shake hands with her catering staff, and she dodged it and walked away. "The minute I saw him going to shake hands, I was out!" She says there's a fuckton of protestors outside and that she hid her face as they pulled up to the event.
Poll conducted at random* shows Kid Rock leading in senate race.
*
poll conducted at Kid Rock concert
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Not a surprise, but didn't another reputable company do one later that week that showed something similar (at least closer than we would want it)? I can't recall the name, but they were a group that actually didn't do too bad in 2016. I remember Enten posting the link on Twitter. Trafalgar, maybe?
Did he offer to wash dishes for 30 seconds and then leave after photos?
Union rank and file is surprisingly pro-Trump, even considering it is a fairly diverse workforce. Him drawing the crowds in Everett during the campaign should have raised alarm bells that he was picking up people who otherwise have voted D and have many progressive viewpoints.
I wonder what the process is for the Q&A and who gets in.
Also where a lot of the manufacturing remaining in the country is located, and tax changes / trade changes have a huge impact on Boeing (because 85% of the sales are to foreign countries) comparatively.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Phrasing:
"Who would you rather have as your US Senator, Kid Rock or some old lady?"
100% Kid Rock, wrap it up folks.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Interesting read. It was pretty obvious that the poll was fishy back when it was first posted, but this goes quite a bit deeper into the world of fake polls, the people who put them out, and the various motivations one could have to fake a poll.
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