BaronLundi
Member
Bwahahaha.
(this one won't make the quarterly CH neogaf thread)
(this one won't make the quarterly CH neogaf thread)
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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
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I don't think there's been any yet since he's still a good way below the other 3.
Bwahahaha.
(this one won't make the quarterly CH neogaf thread)
LMAO
tbh now I'm worried that Fillon still manages to get to round 2 against Le Pen and loses because no one on the left wants to vote for him.
'nyway, it's true that we completely overlooked the législatives. If Macron or Le Pen wins, they might not get a majority, which (likely) means a LR prime minister/government.
'nyway, it's true that we completely overlooked the législatives. If Macron or Le Pen wins, they might not get a majority, which (likely) means a LR prime minister/government.
Lepen has a leftist policy outside of its views on immigration and Europe, so that's an easy vote for Hamon from the right. Nobody wants Lepen from the right.
The LR may be to toxic by then as a party to be able to win a majority of the seats in the french parliament.I don't know how they distance themselves from Fillon and Sarkozy(to a lesser extent).
In other news people outside of France are literally betting on Francois Hollande making a comeback now because of the current state of the French presidential election.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-gambling-idUSKBN15L248
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Probably deserves its own thread.
Disgusting, someone who present herself as defensor of a France isolated from external influence is herself a trojan horse for Russia
You Know Nothing
Member
Quelle surprise!
Je suis shocké.
Yup expecting the Kremlin to switch over to Germany as soon as the elections in france are done.
Macron save us
Russia is not going to be able to influence the french presidential election as much as the 2016 US presidential election. They are seriously wasting their time trying to help a candidate that is really toxic to french voters and has a bigger and more controversial history then trump has ever had in poliitcs.
Alx
Member
Well at least we know it's coming ; and we won't wait for the end of the elections to suspect (or assume) that Russian hacks may be involved.
I wonder what they hope to achieve with hacked emails, though. I hope our candidates aren't stupid enough to put any sensitive/damning information in there.
I wonder what they hope to achieve with hacked emails, though. I hope our candidates aren't stupid enough to put any sensitive/damning information in there.
pa
tri
otes
seriously though, I'm trying to convince people not to let fascists call themselves "patriots". Advocating policies that would send us back to the middle ages and wreck our economy isn't patriotism, neither is being pushed by a foreign, hostile country.
I'm a patriot because I want my country to succeed. They want it to crash only so they can overtake it afterwards.
tri
otes
seriously though, I'm trying to convince people not to let fascists call themselves "patriots". Advocating policies that would send us back to the middle ages and wreck our economy isn't patriotism, neither is being pushed by a foreign, hostile country.
I'm a patriot because I want my country to succeed. They want it to crash only so they can overtake it afterwards.
Palette Swap
Member
Quotidien interviewed Nicolas Dhuicq about his peculiar choice of media (Sputnik and RT), he dodged the question by explaining he was free to choose where he spoke.
I hadn't realized his homophobic tirade about Macron being secretly gay and funded by a gay lobby was in a Sputnik interview.
He's also one of these traitorous parliamentary pieces of shit who side stepped French diplomacy last year to meet Assad and assuage him. He stanned for Assad on RT afterwards.
I really hope LR is nowhere in the run off, they're only marginally better than FN. I honestly don't trust the Fillon side to keep the EU intact and not eventually fall in line with a Putin-Trump-May axis.
I hadn't realized his homophobic tirade about Macron being secretly gay and funded by a gay lobby was in a Sputnik interview.
He's also one of these traitorous parliamentary pieces of shit who side stepped French diplomacy last year to meet Assad and assuage him. He stanned for Assad on RT afterwards.
I really hope LR is nowhere in the run off, they're only marginally better than FN. I honestly don't trust the Fillon side to keep the EU intact and not eventually fall in line with a Putin-Trump-May axis.
Fillon is facing money issues in terms of how much to spend on campaign related things plus his campaign team is focusing really hard on trying to not break the French camapign spending limits
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...problems-as-he-attempts-a-fightback-in-france
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...problems-as-he-attempts-a-fightback-in-france
Frankfurter
Member
French GAF (how much) will this hurt Le Pen?
It makes her slightly less likely to gain ground in polls, but those who already planned to vote for her are likely concerned by immigration and Islam over this.
Empyrean Heaven
Member
Come on France, don't fuck this up. You saw what happened to the UK. You saw what happened to the US. ANYONE BUT LE PEN!
BaronLundi
Member
The pessimist in me will say: about as much as it hurt Trump.
We (everyone in the world) have been doing to little too late to counter Putin's propaganda war machine. The number of serious candidates and French political figures who are friends or straight up supporters of the Russian autocracy and its bloody foreign "policy" is just plain sickening.
The optimist in me still thinks that she won't be elected regardless.
So according to Spiegel.de (it's written in German) Russia is going against Macron with media and cyber-attacks. For god's sake, I hope French people don't fall to the Russian plot like the Americans. 
Not enough, that's for sure.
It's only a part of the French right and most of the far-right, who are embezzled with Russian Financial and political powers.
The left, even partisans of national sovereignty in international affairs like Mélenchon, are in a position that puts France at the center of the world powers's debate, but this has been diabolized by centrist-atlantits medias and political parties. He is much more nuanced but always has been taken as a caricature of a puppet of the worst dictators in the world. Not really fair, he hasn't any ties to Poutine or the Russian Parliament or Russian banks or Russian oligarchs, but he will be as blamed as Fillon or Le Pen for a point of view that is very very similar to Dominique De Villepin for instance.
About the point : Le Pen voters are 80% sure that they will vote for her, she can't get hurt by that kind of claims/rumours, that has little appeal to her voters, that's not their concern and they are probably unwaware of everything that goes behind that. And most importantly they'll forgive almost anything since she hasn't been in any government or any parliamentary majority, that's her #1 asset against everyone. Foreign examples (european and now american) don't matter unless someone drops a nuke.
Someone will try to damage her poll numbers and her chances in the second round eventually. Le Pen won't be able to escape from what fillon has had to deal with and what macron may have to deal with eventually. They will be forces against Le Pen that will make sure she ends up facing the same fate her father faced in 2002 even if putin implicity wants her to become the next french president
Systolique
Member
I mean the large majority of the country already deeply hate her, and her supporters will say that it is media manipulation or something along those lines, as always.
Palette Swap
Member
I honestly assume the 25-30% of first round voters who'd cast a ballot in her favor don't give two shits about her corruption (or her competence for that matter).
What ultimately matters and will shape the run-off is her opponent's ability to rally beyond their base. Scandals and ideological purity/infighting could realistically propel her to the presidency. A Fillon-Le Pen scenario in particular is worrisome right now, because it's still very likely, and a shitload of people would stay home.
Still not enough for her to win. Yes, a lot of left leaning people wouldn't vote, but everyone will call to vote against her.
This is not a Brexit or Trump/Clinton situation. Lepen cannot win, the real question is which other candidate will.
Herb Alpert
Banned
Le Pen is so dangerous for this country that I'd even vote Fillon to stop her.
...
And then I'd vomit.
This elections are a nightmare so far. I hope suburbs situation will calm down rapidly. Riots would be a gift to LePen or even Mr. Eyebrows.
...
And then I'd vomit.
This elections are a nightmare so far. I hope suburbs situation will calm down rapidly. Riots would be a gift to LePen or even Mr. Eyebrows.
BaronLundi
Member
Mélenchon needs no third party to be a caricature. His support of Venezuela and communist dictators, his attacks against EU, hell his stance on Syria alone (remember Aleppo?) makes me dismiss him irrevocably. I don't know that he is a Russian puppet but he does make a fine impression of being a shill. Of course I'd still vote for him against LePen but hopefully this won't happen.
And you'd do the right thing although I would be fucking disgusted to do it as well - even more so than when I had to put Chirac's name in the envelope.
But I'm seriously scared of people who wouldn't. Fillon is a conservative of the worst kind but Le Pen, like Trump, is on a whole another league of evil.
Palette Swap
Member
I'm not writing anything off right now, and I think it's irresponsible to do so. Fillon worries me because he's been incredibly tone deaf in his management of Penelopegate, and he's shown he's unapologetic about his platform so I don't expect him to extend an olive branch between the two rounds.
I don't believe Mélenchon like Le Pen or even Fillon is aligned with some Russian positions because he shares an ideology or money with them. I think it's "just" contrarian myopia in action, where he'll defend assholes because they're adversaries of something he hates. To put it differently, he's more a useful idiot than a shill, which doesn't change the outcome, mind you.
That's a fairly common issue with these contrarian approaches, that they lead to ambiguities and strange bedfellows (see also complacency for antisemites in some parts of the far left who have forgotten who they are, but that's another can of worms).
Linkstrikesback
Member
I'll believe it when the results are out and not before.
People said exactly the same about trump being not a Brexit situation before he won too.
I stumbled upon this video analysing Le Pen's body language and while I'm not an expert on this topic and don't know how the analysis itself was I was shocked by the woman making the video proclaiming that Le Pen is the "modern Jeanne d'Arc", that she is the "French Trump" and that she hopes Le Pen would win to be a great counterpart to Trump.
And all because she talks and moves like a mom.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yz1ATifI9To
Like, WHAT. That's enough for you to say she should win? Because you liked how she talked in an interview? Without knowing what she is actually up to and for what she stands and what she has done in the past? Without fact-checking?
No wonder voters are so dumb.
And all because she talks and moves like a mom.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yz1ATifI9To
Like, WHAT. That's enough for you to say she should win? Because you liked how she talked in an interview? Without knowing what she is actually up to and for what she stands and what she has done in the past? Without fact-checking?
No wonder voters are so dumb.
BaronLundi
Member
QuicheFontaine
Member
I really don't know where this hubris comes from. Le Pen is looking very likely to win the first round with 25/26%. She would be facing either Macron or Fillon which looks about a coin flip right now as they're both hovering around 20%.
If it's a Fillon vs Le Pen face off in the second round, the most recent polls put that as close as a 58 - 42 Fillon victory. These are polls with a margin of error of around 3% due to the sample size. That's not "cannot win" territory in my opinion, especially with a couple of months to go.
We've been there before, in 2002, and again in 2015 for the regional elections. I'm not saying the outcome is fixed, i'm saying these are different situations. Participation is much higher for the French Presidential election than in the US.
The year Lepen (father) succeded, the participation was only 71% on the first round. Usually it's 78-85% which prevent than kind of catastrophy. There have been record number inscriptions on the voters list this past year btw. Mostly young people, mostly left leaning.
Right now, he's the one politician in France we know of with a russian friend thrown in jail by Putin.
And just to be clear, his position regarding Venezuela and others South Americain countries is much more nuanced than that. I don't remember him praising a dictator, but aknowledging th good that has been done in these countries. That doesn't mean he support tyranny. Reality is much more complex than good vs evil.
I do disagree with some things he say out of (misplaced) loyalty for his friends, but I wouldn't go as far as calling that "supporting dictators".
The year Lepen (father) succeded, the participation was only 71% on the first round. Usually it's 78-85% which prevent than kind of catastrophy. There have been record number inscriptions on the voters list this past year btw. Mostly young people, mostly left leaning.
Right now, he's the one politician in France we know of with a russian friend thrown in jail by Putin.
And just to be clear, his position regarding Venezuela and others South Americain countries is much more nuanced than that. I don't remember him praising a dictator, but aknowledging th good that has been done in these countries. That doesn't mean he support tyranny. Reality is much more complex than good vs evil.
I do disagree with some things he say out of (misplaced) loyalty for his friends, but I wouldn't go as far as calling that "supporting dictators".
Alx
Member
Fillon-LePen would be the best case scenario right now for the FN, with Fillon being very unpopular and scaring away left voters, and even then the polls put her far behind in the second round. Macron-LePen is already at 63-37, and is right now the more likely outcome.
Le Pen would need at least one or two scandals similar to Fillon's to shoot down other candidates before she has a true chance of winning. Not saying it can't happen, but it's unlikely.
Le Pen would need at least one or two scandals similar to Fillon's to shoot down other candidates before she has a true chance of winning. Not saying it can't happen, but it's unlikely.
DiipuSurotu
Banned
Le Pen is currently supporting the police officers who are accused of raping a Black guy in Aulnay. Today another guy from Aulnay announced that he got beaten up by the same police officers a few days before the other incident. I could see this case damaging Le Pen's chances.
MoodyFog
Member
I wish, but naaah
Alx
Member
I don't think any scandal can stick to Le Pen. We already know she's been abusing political funds, has cheated on her patrimony declarations, has shady relationships with all kinds of extremists, ... and in the end nobody cares. Or not enough to changes things, those who hate her still hate her, those who love her still love her.
Palette Swap
Member
I had somehow missed that Russia had officially denied claims from the Macron campaign that they're being targeted by Russian cyberattacks : http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/articl...macron-les-jugeant-absurdes_5079456_3214.html
Because yeah, that sounded entirely unbelievable, unheard of, even.
Meanwhile, Fillon's campaign faces another scandal? Welp.
Because yeah, that sounded entirely unbelievable, unheard of, even.
Meanwhile, Fillon's campaign faces another scandal? Welp.
The thing is we have two rounds, that usually makes people wake up for the second round and realize it is actually possible for the FN to win. Which led to Chriac's second term the last time it happened, and the last regional elections too.
Now his camapign is going to deal with his spokespersons tax fraud probe.
Even if Hamon gets lucky and ends up facing Le Pen I still think he will win against her.He may decide to moderate his platform a bit and make it more EU orientated if he managed to face le pen in the second round.I could see him winning by a landslide against le pen.
Also, Arun Kant using his firm's A.I. predicts that Marine Le Pen will become the next president of France. I wonder if his firm A.I. includes data from the regional and 2002 french presidential election.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/15/mari...dent-leonie-hill-capitals-arun-kant-says.html
Also, Arun Kant using his firm's A.I. predicts that Marine Le Pen will become the next president of France. I wonder if his firm A.I. includes data from the regional and 2002 french presidential election.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/15/mari...dent-leonie-hill-capitals-arun-kant-says.html
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