Gemüsepizza
Member
For core gamers, and if they launch at the same time - yes.
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Pachter - Next gen is last gen; projected console sales figures; Xbox to win next gen
- Thread starter Wario64
- Start date
For core gamers, and if they launch at the same time - yes.
prag16
Banned
Wouldn't shock me if none of them do...
People make the same mistakes over and over again and I think it's either based on people "predicting" what will happen based on what they would like to see happen, or them assuming that what they want is what the mass market wants. The most powerful hardware has never sold the most. Games, price, advertising, other features - they are all huge factors - much bigger factors than "powerrrrrrrr!".
metalslimer
Member
Ok sure we can, because my entire point was that the casual userbase was not completely invented by the Wii. The PS2 did not sell 150 million to core gamers alone either. Hell, a large function of the current consoles is netflix usage. With so many new avenues of competiton, the only thing that I was trying to say is that I doubt these new consoles sell more than their old counterparts. i don't really disagree with the Wii U prediction though.
Edit: Online only becoming a huge Sim City level disaster is what I see stopping the Xbox not it's specs. Peopel are tied into the Live ecosystem and you just don't throw that away overnight.
A PS console losing 4 billions dollars? Unheard of!
GhostOfLawlight
Banned
A PS console selling less than 100M? Unheard of.
Alex
Member
Specs can have relevance, but only up to a certain point, last generation was likely an anomaly and most boxes were within proper range of each other prior. Still, almost no one buying a console is going to give a fuck that the PS4 has 8GB of GDDR5 ram as opposed to DDR3 if the new Xbox comes out on a better footing in terms of pricing and support.
AZ Greg
Member
Well I agree there, as does Pachter.
Yeah Im wondering why people assume they grow together.
Didn't Tretton say that PS4's games are priced from $0.99 to $60? Aside from F2P games.
Though I should say that of course this doesn't mean that third party publishers won't price them at $70.
metalslimer
Member
Durango and the PS4 are still both within reasonable distance of each other that the spec battle is not going to matter at all.
Depends on how much he thinks the PS3/360 will sell in the end.
It really depends on a lot but I can see the best selling next gen console being in the 60 million range. If the Wii U could sell 30 Million that would be nice but its impossible to predict.
Consoles disappearing doesn't mean we won't get new games.
I don't remember the exact quote but I think you're misinterpreting it.
Where else will we get CG graphics if PS4/720/U are the end? If a developer makes a game looking like this, there will be new consoles.
Also 4k TVs need to be supported in the future.
Consoles disappearing doesn't mean we won't get new games.
I don't remember the exact quote but I think you're misinterpreting it.
Lord Ghirahim
Member
PS4 will have a 10 year life cycle. Sweet.
Gemüsepizza
Member
The Xbox was more powerful than the PS2 and had less sales, that's right. But it was also a the first console of a new brand (fan base was small) which launched much later than the PS2. The PS4 will not launch later than the Xbox 3, and the Playstation brand has a already many fans. I don't say Sony will "win" the next gen only because of the specs, but also because of the right launch date, a competitive price (<$599), a very strong first party output and virtually unlimited third party support.
But the specs are not the only thing the PS4 is offering, like I pointed out above.
Alex
Member
You don't understand, man. It has GDDR5, I don't know what that means but I think its what they put on the Geforks computer cards, it sounds hella fast, has an extra letter and 5 > 3.
Yep. The only thing that truly matters is ease of development.
If these two consoles wind up having specs that are even in the same ballpark, I don't see how the landscape will drastically change, if at all. I think the userbases are what they are at this point in the game. Parents buying these consoles for their kid come Christmas just won't care about RAM speed.
GhostOfLawlight
Banned
So, how come consoles are still selling well? Those avenues of competition have here for a at least a couple of years now and yet console sales are still good.
From what the slides seem to say, Wii U being a console DS is also a bad thing as well.
Gemüsepizza;49585671 said:
Ahh...PS1 was a new console of a new brand yet it sold 100 million.
Yeah...thats what Pachter is apparantly telling investors. I hope noone is investing their money based on such weird statements.
JordanN
Banned
I'm referring to technological advancements.
What's going to replace consoles and how powerful would it be? Those are important questions.
metalslimer
Member
Did I say consoles would stop selling well? No I said there just wouldn't be growth.
I just got off the phone with my Grandma. She's on her way to GameStop now to trade in her Wii for a PS4 pre-order. She too is excited about the 8GB GDDR5 RAM!
/sarcasm
I can understand Wii U shipments being much lower than PS4/Xbox. Set Top Boxes are the new "thing" and if Sony and especially MS do it right, it might become a "must have" peripheral in the living room, but it won't be for gaming. I believe Pachter is right that this is the last generation for gaming consoles. You can already see the PS4 and Xbox are morphing into Multi-Media machines that happen to also play games.
/sarcasm
I can understand Wii U shipments being much lower than PS4/Xbox. Set Top Boxes are the new "thing" and if Sony and especially MS do it right, it might become a "must have" peripheral in the living room, but it won't be for gaming. I believe Pachter is right that this is the last generation for gaming consoles. You can already see the PS4 and Xbox are morphing into Multi-Media machines that happen to also play games.
So RAM = innovation... yeah...
But, for Pachter, next gen = last gen but 2 out of 3 manufacturers make a bigger number than last one? Yeah, they'll say "'Man, the total number of the 3 consoles is less than last gen, DROP THE ACTIVITY !"
Sure... unless they try to be as successful as HP which tried (still tries?) to drop PC market...
But, for Pachter, next gen = last gen but 2 out of 3 manufacturers make a bigger number than last one? Yeah, they'll say "'Man, the total number of the 3 consoles is less than last gen, DROP THE ACTIVITY !"
Sure... unless they try to be as successful as HP which tried (still tries?) to drop PC market...
GhostOfLawlight
Banned
What type of growth are we talking about here? Because 250M consoles have been sold so far this gen (and counting). Hard to grow from that
But that would ruin all of the fun.
AZ Greg
Member
Wait, was your comment that I quoted just in terms of growth from PS3/360 to PS4/720?
I think he's thinking that by the time this gen is over we will have something to replace consoles.
Gemüsepizza
Member
The PS1 was afaik the first console with heavy focus on 3D graphics. That was an incredible "wow" feature of this console. The Wii had something similar, but I am not sure the Xbox 3 can provide this as well. Kinect and motion controls are nothing new. Of course this is not really needed to sell consoles. But it probably would be not so good if the Xbox 3 can't "wow" consumers with such a thing while having lower specs than their direct competitors.
Manmademan
Member
another thing it (sorta) ignores is that every generation there has been growth year over year. this makes sense, because older gamers haven't actually stopped playing. the average age just keeps going up, and young gamers are added to the total. The gamers that grew up with the NES haven't yet grown out of the market, and probably won't for a good 10-15 years.
ignoring the GC and the Wii for a second, last generation the PS2 sold about 100 million (before the PS3 launched) and the Xbox sold about 20 million. so give or take a few systems, that's a core audience of 120 million.
his figures are slightly off on the PS3 and Xbox, both are 77 million, IIC. so before the launch of a competitor, and at higher price points we have the 360 and the PS3 at around 150 million. they'll end up selling a lot more than that before they're pulled from shelves. outselling the PS2 + xbox is a certainty.
The Ps4 and 720 lack exotic architecture, probably BC, and blu-ray drives are much cheaper this time around. they'll cost reduce MUCH faster. I would peg both the ps4 and 720 at 100 million each BEFORE the next console generation shows up.
Exactly what I was thinking. This is an utter failure of logic on his part. What a cow.
EricDiesel
Member
A bit optimistic with those lifetime sales numbers, I feel.
Alex
Member
No one is going to buy one of these boxes solely for a media device. They'll get an Apple TV, Roku, WDTV, etc, one of a million of those things before a high priced, high powered video game console.
I don't understand this attitude that convergence devices that support a myriad of functionality somehow hurts the gaming landscape. Also, how is the Wii U void of this "problem"? Does this console not have every media service on it? Is Nintendo not pushing things like TVii, Google Street, and a ton of other random, non-gaming features with more to come?
More features > less features, whether you use them or not. It's not taking anything away from your gaming.
WolfForager
Member
The only thing I'm taking from these slides that he's doing it all wrong...
Less texts, more pictures! God damnit Pachter, presentations 101 here.
Less texts, more pictures! God damnit Pachter, presentations 101 here.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Why does everyone keep saying "If you discount the Wii it's actually growth!" Why would you discount the Wii? Because not enough core gamers bought it? I'm pretty sure the money is the same whether it comes from Hella Jeff or grandma.
That being said if this gen sells 240 million compared to last gen's 247 million, that's not going to be enough contraction to convince the hardware manufacturers to hang it up.
Also if Xbox blocks used games you can count on that prediction being off by 80 million or so.
That being said if this gen sells 240 million compared to last gen's 247 million, that's not going to be enough contraction to convince the hardware manufacturers to hang it up.
Also if Xbox blocks used games you can count on that prediction being off by 80 million or so.
Manmademan
Member
I disagree. I think they're too low for the PS4 and 720, but the high end projection for the wiiu is too high.
remember, he's talking LIFETIME sales for next gen consoles. we likely won't see the end of life for the PS3 or 360 for another 2 to 3 years.
because the wii brought in a nontraditional audience that it didn't manage to hold on to. Those gamers will not be in the market next round.
I honestly believe it's more important that the Wii U would have come out sooner so that Nintendo wouldn't have ignored/killed the Wii for 3 years. What the Wii U did (the fictional one) almost seems less important than when it was.
AZ Greg
Member
You should probably stay away from personal insults.
And while I don't agree that this will be the last generation for consoles, acting like a transition would never happen after good sales is a bit shortsighted. If a better delivery system pops up towards the end of their lifetimes then sales, no matter how good prior to the creation of that new method, will be irrelevant. Or you could also have a situation like the Wii where the platforms fly out of the gate and achieve most of his LTD predictions within their first handful of years before drying up like the Wii did.
BradleyLove
Member
I agree. And it's also why I think Sony are ahead of the game with PS+.
Sony are "training" gamers to accept subscriptions to content (whereas MS focus on subscriptions to functionality). One day there'll be a box that sits under your TV, or it's a tablet, a laptop, whatever, and you'll subscribe to the PSN channel, the EA channel, the Activision channel and so forth.
Gaming will become service based just like cable/satellite TV and the likes of Netflix. The device will become less important (e.g Netflix), content will be king. Sony and Nintendo are well positioned for this, MS less so IMO.
I was surprised with Sony ditching Cell as I don't believe consoles as we know them will last another gen. It seemed the price of losing BC is not worth it for one more gen; why switch to X86 for one gen only?
I should prob point out, I still believe games as we know them will continue to exist; we'll just consume that content in different ways, much like we do now with film, TV and music.
ALBOFIGHTER
Member
How much did ps2 sell? It's possible with the ease of development and better starting price that next gen will sell very well. I hope sony bundles ps eye in every console as well and take a loss. It would drive up sales cause people would get much better value and there would be a bigger difference when comparing consoles other then just better graphics. If they have an always online rule or both charge for MP, then that will hold them back in worldwide market share.
The only way these will be the last consoles is if cloud games becomes practical in a business perspective. I just don't see that in 7 years. Plus real time ray tracing is probably what future consoles will feature as it will be feasible at that point and Virtual Reality will be much more advanced. These analysts don't know what they're talking about. I have lost count on how many times they have been wrong.
The only way these will be the last consoles is if cloud games becomes practical in a business perspective. I just don't see that in 7 years. Plus real time ray tracing is probably what future consoles will feature as it will be feasible at that point and Virtual Reality will be much more advanced. These analysts don't know what they're talking about. I have lost count on how many times they have been wrong.
Manmademan
Member
Agree with this. Kev, I find myself agreeing with you quite a bit. you should probably be concerned.
Also, the audience the wii brought in was not exactly tech savvy, so naming it "wii 2" or something obvious to limit confusion probably would have helped a lot.
X86 makes the most sense for a lot of reasons. it makes ports easier, which is something devs were asking for. It also means sony doesn't have to spend a mint designing and fabricating a chip that will have no use outside of the playstation (this happened with PS2 and ps3). and thirdly, in terms of BC, an x86 design makes FUTURE BC much, MUCH easier. with custom hardware you almost have to include the legacy hardware to accomodate older software, and this doesn't make a lot of sense from a cost perspective. if there's an x86 based ps5, it's almost guaranteed to handle ps4 natively with little additional investment.