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PS4 initial costing analysis [Updated]

Doesn't include the controller, the double eye camera, the cabling (power and AV), or the headset. They're either going to lose a shitload on each console, or it's going to be upwards of 500 dollars at launch. Even at 500 they're going to lose a lot of money. They'll be making up for this somewhere else. As others suggested, it's going to be from services.

We're going to do a preliminary costing on the rest of the stuff as well tomorrow, so I'll add that to the OP, based on the info given by Sony the controller and Eye camera aren't going to add a lot, but we're waiting to hear back from a few people before getting the costing together. The headset as described is a mono one, which implies it is very, very cheap, more on the functional side than the fancy one, so we're talking a couple of dollars.

Cabling isn't expensive either, bulk bought HDMI cables are $0.40 per piece, power cables, fig 8 or three pin are about the same. None of what you mention will add significantly to the cost. The most expensive thing we didn't account for in the list is the PSU and cooling but we can't say what kind of quality Sony have used until we get the final design.
 

Hcoregamer00

The 'H' stands for hentai.
My guess is $400-450 for the base model.

The lack of exotic parts means that the loss will be minimal compared to the PS3 and they can drive down costs quickly with economics of scale and more "mainstream" chips.
 

Jack_AG

Banned
Throw in the extras along with the camera+controller and we are looking at 500. I expect the entry point to be similar.
 

AgentP

Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
Remember how surprised we were at Vita pricing? PS4 will be $399 base and $449-$499 for god tier model.

Everyone was expecting $349. Consoles are not priced based on their BOM alone.
 
I want to know where Sony said that the dual camera was gonna be in every box? And why it must be included in any analysis?

DS4 uses it. Sony is going to want it on every box seeing as how Kinect was heavily pushed and no one bought big selling games like Just Dance, fitness, Dance Central, etc on PS3.

I say it's highly likely it'll be on every PS4. It just won't be pushed as hard or be as good as Kinect 2.
 

jett

D-Member
Add the PS Eye and the DS4 and 399 is starting to look like a best-case scenario. More expensive than that and Sony will be in trouble yet again. They should just eat the difference.
 

Kimawolf

Member
Im thinking 549-599 or so, no way they will take a loss this time around. The company is barely sticking around as it is.
 

Gahiggidy

My aunt & uncle run a Mom & Pop store, "The Gamecube Hut", and sold 80k WiiU within minutes of opening.
OT/

I would love to see the same done for Wii U (if possible).
 

RaijinFY

Member
Blu-Ray drive is damn cheap nowdays lol.

EDIT:

hilariously cheap compared to CELL and RSX back then:

APU (CPU/GPU) 85-90$
 

AgentP

Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
They essentially said it when they put a move sensor on every single new Dual Shock.

A $0.50 light bar does not equate to "Move" sensor. Did they say they are including a Move controller too? It was demoed after all, let make more assumptions.



~$500 of the PS3 BOM was BD and Cell alone, they don't have crazy stuff like that any more. Keep that in mind.
 
DS4 uses it. Sony is going to want it on every box seeing as how Kinect was heavily pushed and no one bought big selling games like Just Dance, fitness, Dance Central, etc on PS3.

I say it's highly likely it'll be on every PS4. It just won't be pushed as hard or be as good as Kinect 2.

They essentially said it when they put a move sensor on every single new Dual Shock.

Until they come out and say it I'm not gonna assume it. I'm about to rewatch the conference but I distinctively remember them goin on about identifying players and such as uses for the led.
 
B2B prices. Since when can the consumer buy GDDR5 chips?



They would lose money at $399 because the figures don't include assembly, shipping, cooling and power which can add a significant amount to the final cost.



R&D costs are said to be much lower this time, and anyway, that cost is already sunk, there is no getting it back and amazingly SCE was profitable throughout the timeframe that PS4 was being developed.

Or the extra peripherals included with a default box (controller, PS4 eye, etc.)

$500 minimum for the PS4, more if Sony wants to make a profit on the hardware. I can't imagine Sony would want to be a loss-leader this time around if they market the system correctly.
 

Hcoregamer00

The 'H' stands for hentai.
$500, or $450 if they are willing to take a huge loss.

Losing $50-100 is not a huge loss compared to the losses of the the predecessor where estimates put it around $300-500 loss per PS3 during launch.

Selling two 1st party games and PS+ will fill up the losses quickly, and economies of scale should push it quickly to start moving in a positive direction.
 

george_us

Member
Add the PS Eye and the DS4 and 399 is starting to look like a best-case scenario. More expensive than that and Sony will be in trouble yet again. They should just eat the difference.
Which is why I think PS4 will be $399 no matter what. They have to know $499/$599 is what did them in last generation.
 

spwolf

Member
We're going to do a preliminary costing on the rest of the stuff as well tomorrow, so I'll add that to the OP, based on the info given by Sony the controller and Eye camera aren't going to add a lot, but we're waiting to hear back from a few people before getting the costing together. The headset as described is a mono one, which implies it is very, very cheap, more on the functional side than the fancy one, so we're talking a couple of dollars.

Cabling isn't expensive either, bulk bought HDMI cables are $0.40 per piece, power cables, fig 8 or three pin are about the same. None of what you mention will add significantly to the cost. The most expensive thing we didn't account for in the list is the PSU and cooling but we can't say what kind of quality Sony have used until we get the final design.

so all together, extra $100+? Considering last isuppli bom for ps3 slim in 2009, manufacturing was $10, cooling and psu $32 and "rest" was $80.

http://i.imgur.com/0hBRVnb.png

I think you are right though - it might be $399 with mandatory online fee and tiers for PS+ and PS Cloud... this will let them price it $150-200 less than their total expenses when we include manufacturing, shipping, warehousing and retailing, right?
 
Tretton's aiming for the PS4 final costs to be "lower than $600," for a more "consumer-friendly price."

I really think Sony will combat the ~$500 development costs with a subsidized system.
 
Amazon has release date! Well some kind of it.

Ed2NiAk.png
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but why are folks taking this number and getting a $400 console out of it?

There's still:
Cost of assembly.
Cost of eyetoy.
Cost of controller (with new gadgets).

Plus the retail markup, which I've always heard to be 15%.

$500 seems the bare minimum to me.
 

spwolf

Member
A $0.50 light bar does not equate to "Move" sensor. Did they say they are including a Move controller too? It was demoed after all, let make more assumptions.



~$500 of the PS3 BOM was BD and Cell alone, they don't have crazy stuff like that any more. Keep that in mind.

both of your points are grossly invalid... it is camera that is sensing in move, not the move... and PS3 BOM for Cell and BD was half of your figure.
 
I foresee $499 at minimum.
I just cannot see that flying this gen. In 2006 or whatever, Sony was hard pressed to unload them, even weeks after launch at the $599... and that was before no one was making any money. I am waiting on the WiiU mostly due to not having a ton of money to invest in a new console, even though I was impressed with Sony's conference, I may sit out for the first PS4 slim next gen. :(
 

AgentP

Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
both of your points are grossly invalid... it is camera that is sensing in move, not the move... and PS3 BOM for Cell and BD was half of your figure.

My point is valid. If they don't include the Move controller, what makes you think they will include the camera? A color bar?

541_large_merrill.png


$230+$350, Just an estimate, but what else do we have?
 

NolbertoS

Member
Correct me if I'm wrong, but why are folks taking this number and getting a $400 console out of it?

There's still:
Cost of assembly.
Cost of eyetoy.
Cost of controller (with new gadgets).

Plus the retail markup, which I've always heard to be 15%.

$500 seems the bare minimum to me.

This..most armchair economists think that Sony will sell at break even or less. Remember guys all businesses are here to make money and no economies of scale will save them, if they sell everything at a loss over time. I would assume that 499 or higher would be the price Sony starts out and adding a markup maybe over $500, depending on how Sony feels. Sony overall is bleeding money, so don't know how taking a loss in the Gaming Division will offset a revenue in other divisions and make sony investors happy overall with the company?
 
I just cannot see that flying this gen. In 2006 or whatever, Sony was hard pressed to unload them, even weeks after launch at the $599... and that was before no one was making any money. I am waiting on the WiiU mostly due to not having a ton of money to invest in a new console, even though I was impressed with Sony's conference, I may sit out for the first PS4 slim next gen. :(

I'm going to wait for the inevitable Slim SKU too. 32 chips of GDDR5 is going to take up a serious amount of space on a large motherboard, at least at current densities. And it's going to need a fan at the sound level of a 747 to keep it all from frying lol.
 
Keep in mind that BoM is only one component of pricing. Sony also had much lower R&D costs (Cell alone was billions of $) this gen and they don't need to invest into specialized fabs making Cells and XDR chips. Those 2 things make for a huge difference.
 

z0m3le

Banned
So a couple of us at the bank have done a costing analysis this morning. I won't be able to give exact figures, as if we ever decide to release them publicly it will definitely blow my cover.

All figures in USD.

APU (CPU/GPU) - 85-90
8GB GDDR5 - 110-140
OS Chip (supposedly ARM based) - 12-18
Video encode/decode chip - 8-12
Blu-ray drive - 18-25
Hard drive - 38-50
I/O - 9-12
Wireless chip + antenna - 4
HDMI+HDCP - 11-15
Other - 25-35

Total - 320-401

These figures are preliminary, and do not include assembly costs, power costs, cooling or shipping as the final design has not been shown and can't be estimated at this time.

Please, please, please remember that this is based on the specification only and cost prices that we know, without a PS4 in the hand there will be mistakes.

Are you guys adding in the price of a more complex motherboard to support 16 4gbit memory chips? and what about the PSU? I'm leaning towards ~$35 just for the PSU? cooling for this box won't be cheap either, you are looking at cooling 300watts or more... ~140watts just for the ram.
 

deviljho

Member
Are you guys adding in the price of a more complex motherboard to support 16 4gbit memory chips? and what about the PSU? I'm leaning towards ~$35 just for the PSU? cooling for this box won't be cheap either, you are looking at cooling 300watts or more... ~140watts just for the ram.

it's probably why the console wasn't shown.
 

AgentP

Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
Are you guys adding in the price of a more complex motherboard to support 16 4gbit memory chips? and what about the PSU? I'm leaning towards ~$35 just for the PSU? cooling for this box won't be cheap either, you are looking at cooling 300watts or more... ~140watts just for the ram.

Source?
 

Loudninja

Member
I think this will go well with the topic:
When asked if the company was prepared to compete with other consoles and hit a more favorable price, Yoshida said that Sony's decisions to use custom AMD hardware instead of its own proprietary Cell architecture has allowed it to save on R&D and production costs.

"The architecture choice we have made this time around has allowed us not to invest to create dedicated factories and conducting factories and things like that — so that helps in order for us to provide an affordable price to consumers."
http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/02/21/sony-flexible-on-playstation-4-cost
 

DarkoMaledictus

Tier Whore
So sony gearing up for another massive failure? Another 500$ console nobody will buy until it drops heavily... well if they want to make it easy for MS... :(.
 

Crunch2600

Neo Member
So a couple of us at the bank have done a costing analysis this morning. I won't be able to give exact figures, as if we ever decide to release them publicly it will definitely blow my cover.

All figures in USD.

APU (CPU/GPU) - 85-90
8GB GDDR5 - 110-140
OS Chip (supposedly ARM based) - 12-18
Video encode/decode chip - 8-12
Blu-ray drive - 18-25
Hard drive - 38-50
I/O - 9-12
Wireless chip + antenna - 4
HDMI+HDCP - 11-15
Other - 25-35

Total - 320-401

These figures are preliminary, and do not include assembly costs, power costs, cooling or shipping as the final design has not been shown and can't be estimated at this time.

Please, please, please remember that this is based on the specification only and cost prices that we know, without a PS4 in the hand there will be mistakes.
Are you guys adding in the price of a more complex motherboard to support 16 4gbit memory chips? and what about the PSU? I'm leaning towards ~$35 just for the PSU? cooling for this box won't be cheap either, you are looking at cooling 300watts or more... ~140watts just for the ram.

Where's the GPU in these figures?
 
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