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schuelma
Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
(07-12-2017, 02:51 PM)
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Originally Posted by zelas

Only 3 Switch games in the top 20 and they're all just Nintendo published titles. Can we even begin to argue about the "nintendo audience" not buying third party games when Nintendo is handicapping software sales themselves with the meager amount of hardware making it to market?

The Switch demand hasnt been touching third parties lately even though the consensus seems to be that third parties are trying harder with their Nintendo versions of titles. Even ARMS is feeling the effects of low supply with its numbers dropping so much each week. It really seems like third party efforts are being completely wasted thanks to the current hardware situation. And that certainly isn't encouraging hesitant publishers to jump in sooner than later.

What 3rd party release in Japan (we could talk world wide, but this is Media Create) are you even talking about?
Busaiku
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(07-12-2017, 02:53 PM)
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Originally Posted by schuelma

What 3rd party release in Japan (we could talk world wide, but this is Media Create) are you even talking about?

Disgaea 5 RIP
Zedark
Member
(07-12-2017, 02:53 PM)
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PREDICTION LEAGUE DRAGON QUEST XI EDITION

Predict how much these titles will sell in the week (from Jul 24 to Jul 30):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware (7 days) - 100k
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (7 days) - 90k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 800k
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 700k

Originally Posted by Aostia

I would say splatoon 2 week 1 will be higher than arms YTD sales

Wow... That's a... bold prediction...
Last edited by Zedark; 07-12-2017 at 02:55 PM.
Aostia
El Capitan Todd
(07-12-2017, 02:53 PM)
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I would say splatoon 2 week 1 will be higher than arms YTD sales
DNAbro
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(07-12-2017, 02:54 PM)
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Originally Posted by zelas

Only 3 Switch games in the top 20 and they're all just Nintendo published titles. Can we even begin to argue about the "nintendo audience" not buying third party games when Nintendo is handicapping software sales themselves with the meager amount of hardware making it to market?

The Switch demand hasnt been touching third parties lately even though the consensus seems to be that third parties are trying harder with their Nintendo versions of titles. Even ARMS is feeling the effects of low supply with its numbers dropping so much each week. It really seems like third party efforts are being completely wasted thanks to the current hardware situation. And that certainly isn't encouraging hesitant publishers to jump in sooner than later.

I'm not sure what you are expecting. There isn't any huge 3rd party games and some of the more notable ones like Bomberman have done well.
sphinx
the piano man
(07-12-2017, 02:54 PM)
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Originally Posted by schuelma

What 3rd party release in Japan (we could talk world wide, but this is Media Create) are you even talking about?

I wish Bomberman and the Mana games were still showing up, maybe when stock improves
Bruno MB
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(07-12-2017, 02:55 PM)
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I don't want to influence with my comment people's predictions and I don't say it will not happen, but 1.5 million first week would be bomba territory for Dragon Quest XI.
Aostia
El Capitan Todd
(07-12-2017, 02:56 PM)
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Originally Posted by sphinx

I wish Bomberman and the Mana games were still showing up, maybe when stock improves


Bomberman is already the best selling get episode since the forever
It did way more than OK
There have been zero other not even interesting games but normal third party game for Switch in Japan so far to look at their sales so...
Skittzo0413
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(07-12-2017, 02:56 PM)
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Originally Posted by zelas

Only 3 Switch games in the top 20 and they're all just Nintendo published titles. Can we even begin to argue about the "nintendo audience" not buying third party games when Nintendo is handicapping software sales themselves with the meager amount of hardware making it to market?

The Switch demand hasnt been touching third parties lately even though the consensus seems to be that third parties are trying harder with their Nintendo versions of titles. Even ARMS is feeling the effects of low supply with its numbers dropping so much each week. It really seems like third party efforts are being completely wasted thanks to the current hardware situation. And that certainly isn't encouraging hesitant publishers to jump in sooner than later.

Remember MC only tracks retail releases (as far as I'm aware). How many third party retail releases have their been recently? We have seen quite a few cases of digital titles selling extremely well on the Switch, most recently with Kamiko.
TheLegendaryN
Junior Member
(07-12-2017, 02:56 PM)
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Originally Posted by zelas

Only 3 Switch games in the top 20 and they're all just Nintendo published titles. Can we even begin to argue about the "nintendo audience" not buying third party games when Nintendo is handicapping software sales themselves with the meager amount of hardware making it to market?

The Switch demand hasnt been touching third parties lately even though the consensus seems to be that third parties are trying harder with their Nintendo versions of titles. Even ARMS is feeling the effects of low supply with its numbers dropping so much each week. It really seems like third party efforts are being completely wasted thanks to the current hardware situation. And that certainly isn't encouraging hesitant publishers to jump in sooner than later.

The last third-party game that came out in Japan was Seiken Densetsu Collection (aside from Lego City Undercover, but Lego games never sell >10k in Japan), which was released on June 1st (6 weeks ago). Do you expect games to have such legs? Of course there are no third-party Switch games in the list right now. Alongside Splatoon 2, we'll see Fate/Extella for Switch. Let's see how many people will buy that.



PREDICTION LEAGUE DRAGON QUEST XI EDITION

Predict how much these titles will sell in the week (from Jul 24 to Jul 30):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware (7 days) - 120.000
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (7 days) - 150.000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 700.000
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 1.300.000
H13
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(07-12-2017, 02:57 PM)
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Theres a new 3rd party switch releases this week?
sphinx
the piano man
(07-12-2017, 02:57 PM)
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Originally Posted by Bruno MB

I don't want to influence with my comment people's predictions and I don't say it will not happen, but 1.5 million first week would be bomba territory for Dragon Quest XI.

you should probably add " 3DS/PS4 combined" in this post, just in case lol
sinonobu
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(07-12-2017, 02:57 PM)
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PREDICTION LEAGUE DRAGON QUEST XI EDITION

Predict how much these titles will sell in the week (from Jul 24 to Jul 30):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware (7 days) - 80k
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (7 days) - 80k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 760k
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 750k
RPG_Fanatic
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(07-12-2017, 02:58 PM)
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Originally Posted by zelas

Only 3 Switch games in the top 20 and they're all just Nintendo published titles. Can we even begin to argue about the "nintendo audience" not buying third party games when Nintendo is handicapping software sales themselves with the meager amount of hardware making it to market?

The Switch demand hasnt been touching third parties lately even though the consensus seems to be that third parties are trying harder with their Nintendo versions of titles. Even ARMS is feeling the effects of low supply with its numbers dropping so much each week. It really seems like third party efforts are being completely wasted thanks to the current hardware situation. And that certainly isn't encouraging hesitant publishers to jump in sooner than later.

You do realize that there hasn't been any new third party releases for the Switch recently right? It's no surprise that first party games chart when they are the newest and biggest games.
Earthpainting
Knows which side
the bread is buttered on.
(07-12-2017, 03:00 PM)
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Not particularly great numbers for a Gundam VS, but at least NieR came back from the dead. Probably lost its most recent memories.

It's not the most exciting week, but next few ones should be more interesting. 2DS XL is right on time for DQ11, and that game will hopefully also stave off the PS4-PS3 streams from crossing. It'll also be curious to see how many Switch units have been held back to prepare for the Splatoon 2 launch. It's arguably the biggest game Nintendo has in store for this year in Japan.
noshten
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(07-12-2017, 03:01 PM)
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Originally Posted by zelas

Only 3 Switch games in the top 20 and they're all just Nintendo published titles. Can we even begin to argue about the "nintendo audience" not buying third party games when Nintendo is handicapping software sales themselves with the meager amount of hardware making it to market?

The Switch demand hasnt been touching third parties lately even though the consensus seems to be that third parties are trying harder with their Nintendo versions of titles. Even ARMS is feeling the effects of low supply with its numbers dropping so much each week. It really seems like third party efforts are being completely wasted thanks to the current hardware situation. And that certainly isn't encouraging hesitant publishers to jump in sooner than later.

Outside of the three biggest titles launched in 4 months on the Switch, 1-2 Switch is the only exclusive game that got a physical release as far as I'm aware.
Snipperclips is constantly in the top 5 of the eShop and it's likely it will outsell 1-2 Switch. Zelda BotW is likely to be the first Zelda in a long time to pass 1 million sales in Japan and could easily do it before the end of the year. MK8D is keeping pace with MK8 despite MK8 being bundled to try and push WiiU sales. Arms is on it's way to being the most successful fighter in Japan after Smash.

Outside of Minecraft there is no major 3rd party title on the Switch and Minecraft is selling a very well digitally. Bomberman R is the best performing Bomberman in decades and has passed 100K which is around the amount Konami probably shipped for the launch. Outside of Minecraft and Bomberman R there simply isn't notable 3rd party games on the system yet. We all know the situation with MHXX and why it might under-perform - but Nintendo could rescue it by bundling a greater number of Switches for it's launch.

Originally Posted by Earthpainting

Not particularly great numbers for a Gundam VS

Considering the reaction online to the game the aggressive monetization and missing features it's definitely getting the type of sales it deserves. We could very well see a 80% drop next week.
Last edited by noshten; 07-12-2017 at 03:07 PM.
1st Course
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(07-12-2017, 03:02 PM)
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Originally Posted by Bending_Unit_22

That caused it's weekly share to drop but despite that it's weekly share is still higher than the total share so the total share goes up. In numerical form:

Last week share - 74%
This week share - 48%

Last week total share - 14.3%
This week total share - 15.1%

The total share will continue increasing until the weekly share drops below it. ARMS would have had to have sold less than 3,700 or so for that to have happened this week.

Yeah that seems about right I guess.
LordKano
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(07-12-2017, 03:03 PM)
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PREDICTION LEAGUE DRAGON QUEST XI EDITION

Predict how much these titles will sell in the week (from Jul 24 to Jul 30):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware (7 days) - 95k
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (7 days) - 75k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 700k
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 1M

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last edited by LordKano; 07-12-2017 at 03:05 PM.
LordRaptor
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(07-12-2017, 03:03 PM)
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Originally Posted by zelas

The Switch demand hasnt been touching third parties lately

When Minecraft gets a retail release expect to see it in the charts for the next forever years
Zedark
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(07-12-2017, 03:04 PM)
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Originally Posted by Earthpainting

Not particularly great numbers for a Gundam VS, but at least NieR came back from the dead. Probably lost its most recent memories.

It's not the most exciting week, but next few ones should be more interesting. 2DS XL is right on time for DQ11, and that game will hopefully also stave off the PS4-PS3 streams from crossing. It'll also be curious to see how many Switch units have been held back to prepare for the Splatoon 2 launch. It's arguably the biggest game Nintendo has in store for this year in Japan.

There's two more weeks before, though, where PS4 and PS3 will quite likely cross streams. Not that that is really significant when it lasts for at most two weeks.

Originally Posted by zelas

Only 3 Switch games in the top 20 and they're all just Nintendo published titles. Can we even begin to argue about the "nintendo audience" not buying third party games when Nintendo is handicapping software sales themselves with the meager amount of hardware making it to market?

The Switch demand hasnt been touching third parties lately even though the consensus seems to be that third parties are trying harder with their Nintendo versions of titles. Even ARMS is feeling the effects of low supply with its numbers dropping so much each week. It really seems like third party efforts are being completely wasted thanks to the current hardware situation. And that certainly isn't encouraging hesitant publishers to jump in sooner than later.

Efforts wasted? Where else are they going to put their software on to make money? The PS4 isn't exactly a slam-dunk for 3rd party games over there, just ask Gundam VS.
noshten
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(07-12-2017, 03:08 PM)
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Originally Posted by NintendosBooger

Efforts wasted? Where else are they going to put their software on to make money? The PS4 isn't exactly a slam-dunk for 3rd party games over there, just ask Gundam VS.

Gundam VS bombing has nothing to do with the PS4
Vena
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(07-12-2017, 03:10 PM)
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Fanfiction started early this week, I see.
L~A
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(07-12-2017, 03:11 PM)
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The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - Road to 1 million

Wii U + Switch = 663 036 units
Switch = 530 012
Wii U = 133 024
Units left to 1 million = 336 964 units
Weeks left = 25 weeks
Needs = 13 478 units/week.
MANUELF
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(07-12-2017, 03:13 PM)
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Originally Posted by noshten

Gundam VS bombing has nothing to do with the PS4

The same can be said to other 3rd party bombs on Nintendo consoles like Yakuza Collection
Skullwaker
Junior Member
(07-12-2017, 03:13 PM)
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Originally Posted by L~A

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - Road to 1 million

Wii U + Switch = 663 036 units
Switch = 530 012
Wii U = 133 024
Units left to 1 million = 336 964 units
Weeks left = 25 weeks
Needs = 13 478 units/week.

It might not make it this year, but lifetime seems like a guarantee at this point.

Which is crazy for the series.
Oregano
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(07-12-2017, 03:14 PM)
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It would be a good point if any third party had actually made an effort on Switch. Bomberman is the highest effort third party release and they've been rewarded for it.
KtSlime
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(07-12-2017, 03:15 PM)
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Originally Posted by zelas

Only 3 Switch games in the top 20 and they're all just Nintendo published titles. Can we even begin to argue about the "nintendo audience" not buying third party games when Nintendo is handicapping software sales themselves with the meager amount of hardware making it to market?

The Switch demand hasnt been touching third parties lately even though the consensus seems to be that third parties are trying harder with their Nintendo versions of titles. Even ARMS is feeling the effects of low supply with its numbers dropping so much each week. It really seems like third party efforts are being completely wasted thanks to the current hardware situation. And that certainly isn't encouraging hesitant publishers to jump in sooner than later.

I am not sure what you are trying to argue here. Are you saying that Bomberman and Seiken Densetu Collection would have sold more on PS4?
OfficerRaichu15
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(07-12-2017, 03:15 PM)
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Switch 3rd Party can not be determined yet so far but if someone wants perspective here are the "major" 3rd party games so far

Bomberman:
Highest selling Bomberman game in decades and is over 100k lifetime. Game sold half a million in a month.

Disgea 5C:
Despite charting low NIS said it sold around 20k and the West had upwards of 110k preorders before release

Minecraft:
No physical release yet due to ultimate edition but it has been charting at the top of the chart since release and will for a long time.

SF2:
For a port of a 25 year old game at $40 it did pretty well. Over 20k in Japan without bomba bins should help make it profitable. Also did well in places like France and Spain.

These games should not be used to determine how all third party are doing but have all done well enough.

Originally Posted by noshten

Gundam VS bombing has nothing to do with the PS4

What's the excuse for Valkyria Revolution or GR2, then?
Nirolak
Mrgrgr
(07-12-2017, 03:15 PM)
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Originally Posted by Oregano

It would be a good point if any third party had actually made an effort on Switch. Bomberman is the highest effort third party release and they've been rewarded for it.

On this note, what is actually the first large Japanese third party Switch game for Japan?
Last edited by Nirolak; 07-12-2017 at 03:25 PM.
Eolz
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(07-12-2017, 03:15 PM)
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Oh damn, this prediction league is going to be ineteresting!
Yagami_Sama
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(07-12-2017, 03:16 PM)
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PREDICTION LEAGUE DRAGON QUEST XI EDITION

Predict how much these titles will sell in the week (from Jul 24 to Jul 30):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware (7 days) - 64.340k
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (7 days) - 75.357k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 756.435k
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 1.3M
Gotdatmoney
Member
(07-12-2017, 03:16 PM)

Originally Posted by Skullwaker

It might not make it this year, but lifetime seems like a guarantee at this point.

Which is crazy for the series.

Personally if this is how summer is shaking out I think it is more likely to make it this year than not. Switch stock should improve enough to push it there.
Zedark
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(07-12-2017, 03:17 PM)
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Originally Posted by Skullwaker

It might not make it this year, but lifetime seems like a guarantee at this point.

Which is crazy for the series.

Yup. Considering it's trending around 8k when the shipments are only 26k, it can get very close to 1 million during this calendar year, though, and reaching 900k should be doable with the holidays and other increased shipments. Great performance for BOTW, and worldwide we will likely see a similarly impressive result for the game (I still think it will surpass 10 million WW LTD, Duckroll).
Toni
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(07-12-2017, 03:17 PM)
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Embarrassing stock situation for switch.
donkey show
Little Big Dev
Sumo Digital
(07-12-2017, 03:17 PM)
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To put Gundam Versus sales in comparison to previously launched titles in the series with their week 1 sales:

Extreme VS (PS3): ~350k
Extreme VS Full Boost (PS3): ~270k
Extreme VS Force (Vita): ~70k
Mpl90
Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
(07-12-2017, 03:19 PM)
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Originally Posted by Vena

Fanfiction started early this week, I see.

I must be honest, Zelas is a damn fine fanfiction author too. The only problem is that he seems to be a bit redundant, see

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...&postcount=307
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...&postcount=290
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...6&postcount=49
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...&postcount=108
Oregano
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(07-12-2017, 03:19 PM)
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Originally Posted by Nirolak

On this note, what is actually the first large third party Switch game for Japan?

Released or announced?

Possibly Minecraft for both.

If not Minecraft it's a toss up between Taiko and DQXI depending of what they actually end up being.
LordRaptor
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(07-12-2017, 03:20 PM)
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Originally Posted by Nirolak

On this note, what is actually the first large third party Switch game for Japan?

Minecraft is the only leggy title released so far and thats not going to chart in MC / Famitsu until it gets a retail release.
And I'm fairly confident in saying when it gets that retail release its going to make up for any absence on charts today by being on those charts for years to come.
-Setsuna-
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(07-12-2017, 03:21 PM)
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Tobidase Dōbutsu no Mori's attach rate and longevity really are out of this world...

Originally Posted by Bruno MB

PREDICTION LEAGUE DRAGON QUEST XI EDITION

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware (7 days) - 100k
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (7 days) - 65k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 900k
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 850k
Last edited by -Setsuna-; 07-12-2017 at 03:24 PM.
Kenzodielocke
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(07-12-2017, 03:21 PM)
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Would be really surprised if 3DS ends up selling more than PS4. Softwarewise it might be 60,55/40,45 in favour for the 3DS.

Originally Posted by Bruno MB

PREDICTION LEAGUE DRAGON QUEST XI EDITION

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware (7 days) - 130k
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (7 days) - 105k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 820k
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 1050k
Last edited by Kenzodielocke; 07-12-2017 at 03:23 PM.
Skullwaker
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(07-12-2017, 03:23 PM)
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Originally Posted by Zedark

Yup. Considering it's trending around 8k when the shipments are only 26k, it can even get close to 1 million during this calendar year, reaching 900k should be doable with the holidays and other increased shipments. Great performance for BOTW, and worldwide we will likely see a similarly impressive result for the game (I still think it will surpass 10 million WW LTD, Duckroll).

10m WW LTD absolutely seems like a possibility now. While the series has never quite reached that feat before, it's been close with TP. BotW has been surrounded by so much buzz and was received so well that I think it'll outperform many people's expectations in terms of lifetime sales.

Of course, this also depends on what the Switch ends up selling lifetime. But Ocarina of Time managed to sell a good 7.6m on the 33m install base of the N64, so there's no telling how much the Switch needs to sell.
allan-bh
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(07-12-2017, 03:23 PM)
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Why people are so pessimistic about Dragon Quest XI? Pre-orders are bad?
Nirolak
Mrgrgr
(07-12-2017, 03:25 PM)
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Originally Posted by Oregano

Released or announced?

Possibly Minecraft for both.

If not Minecraft it's a toss up between Taiko and DQXI depending of what they actually end up being.

Originally Posted by LordRaptor

Minecraft is the only leggy title released so far and thats not going to chart in MC / Famitsu until it gets a retail release.
And I'm fairly confident in saying when it gets that retail release its going to make up for any absence on charts today by being on those charts for years to come.

Sorry, I probably should have clarified I meant Japanese third party games.

So after Taiko or DQXI (which I'm guessing might be holiday 2017, at least for Taiko?), are there any titles that are considered larger games announced?
Last edited by Nirolak; 07-12-2017 at 03:27 PM.
KtSlime
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(07-12-2017, 03:25 PM)
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Originally Posted by Kenzodielocke

Would be really surprised if 3DS ends up selling more than PS4. Softwarewise it might be 60,55/40,45 in favour for the 3DS.

I believe 3DS sales are down because of the imminent release of the New 2DS.
Gotdatmoney
Member
(07-12-2017, 03:26 PM)

Originally Posted by zelas

Only 3 Switch games in the top 20 and they're all just Nintendo published titles. Can we even begin to argue about the "nintendo audience" not buying third party games when Nintendo is handicapping software sales themselves with the meager amount of hardware making it to market?

Lol no. There has to be third party games to be handicapped in the first place.

The Switch demand hasnt been touching third parties lately even though the consensus seems to be that third parties are trying harder with their Nintendo versions of titles. Even ARMS is feeling the effects of low supply with its numbers dropping so much each week. It really seems like third party efforts are being completely wasted thanks to the current hardware situation. And that certainly isn't encouraging hesitant publishers to jump in sooner than later.

What third party efforts? Mana rom? SF2 port?
L~A
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(07-12-2017, 03:26 PM)
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Hmm...

10./15. [3DS] Pokemon Sun / Moon <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2016.11.18} („4.980) - 3.405 / 3.284.888 (+11%)

Wonder what that sudden increase is due to?
Aostia
El Capitan Todd
(07-12-2017, 03:27 PM)
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Originally Posted by Nirolak

On this note, what is actually the first large Japanese third party Switch game for Japan?


None has been announced yet
It could have been MHXX or dqxi but we all know how those went
vareon
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(07-12-2017, 03:28 PM)
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Originally Posted by Nirolak

On this note, what is actually the first large Japanese third party Switch game for Japan?

Outside of ports, will Night of Azure 2 count?

I currently don't see any other new third party Switch title that releases simultaneously with other consoles. I might be missing things here though,

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