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Living the Dream
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(07-12-2017, 03:28 PM)
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Originally Posted by L~A

Hmm...



Wonder what that sudden increase is due to?

2DS XL
Kolx
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(07-12-2017, 03:28 PM)
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Originally Posted by Zedark


Wow... That's a... bold prediction...

In japan only? I'd say not bold at all.
Oregano
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(07-12-2017, 03:29 PM)
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Originally Posted by Nirolak

Sorry, I probably should have clarified I meant Japanese third party games.

So after Taiko or DQXI (which I'm guessing might be holiday 2017, at least for Taiko?), are there any titles that are considered larger games announced?

Depends how low you want to set the bar. Story of Seasons is pretty big by modern JP standards.
Zedark
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(07-12-2017, 03:29 PM)
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Originally Posted by allan-bh

Why people are so pessimistic about Dragon Quest XI? Pre-orders are bad?

Kinda. Look at DQIX preorder numbers right before release:

[NDS]ドラゴンクエスト9 星空の守り人 - 2917pt

Edit: Another comparison, this time with DQVIII:

[PS2]ドラゴンクエスト8 空と海と大地と呪われし姫君 - 4285pt

Whereas DQXI sums to just over 1000pt at this point. Of course, it still has a few weeks to garner preorders, and I've heard that the value of a sale at comgnet.com is worth more than it used to typically, but it still is a massive gap that suggests at this moment that the preorders aren't good.

For the record, the launch week for DQIX:

01./00. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square Enix) - 2,318,932 / NEW

Edit: And the sales for DQVIII:

1 PS2 Dragon Quest VIII: Sora to Umi to Daichi to Norowareshi Himigime Square Enix 2,167,072

(Sales numbers for DQVII DQIX from our very own media create threads)

-------------

Originally Posted by Kolx

In japan only? I'd say not bold at all.

Thatsthejoke.gif
Last edited by Zedark; 07-12-2017 at 03:56 PM.
schuelma
Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
(07-12-2017, 03:30 PM)
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Originally Posted by Nirolak

Sorry, I probably should have clarified I meant Japanese third party games.

So after Taiko or DQXI (which I'm guessing might be holiday 2017, at least for Taiko?), are there any titles that are considered larger games announced?

MH XX should still do ok-ish for what it is.

SMT has been announced.

Tales game is coming
LordKano
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(07-12-2017, 03:32 PM)
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I think it's more that DQXI is launching on a tired 3DS and a PS4 that never took off, while DQIX launched on DS when it was still selling like hotcakes. I don't think it will do very well.
astrogamer
Member
(07-12-2017, 03:32 PM)
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PREDICTION LEAGUE DRAGON QUEST XI EDITION

Predict how much these titles will sell in the week (from Jul 24 to Jul 30):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware (7 days) - 120k
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (7 days) - 120k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 820k
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 1100k
Kresnik258
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(07-12-2017, 03:32 PM)
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Originally Posted by MANUELF

The same can be said to other 3rd party bombs on Nintendo consoles like Yakuza Collection

I know the point you're trying to make but I feel like that game's sales had everything to do with Wii U, lol. It would have done notably better on Vita; or Switch.
Kenzodielocke
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(07-12-2017, 03:34 PM)
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Originally Posted by LordKano

I think it's more that DQXI is launching on a tired 3DS and a PS4 that never took off, while DQIX launched on DS when it was still selling like hotcakes. I don't think it will do very well.

Sure, but a console DQ feels pretty hype, kinda like MHW reception so far. Both will do well, though.
frankie_baby
Member
(07-12-2017, 03:35 PM)

Originally Posted by Kenzodielocke

Sure, but a console DQ feels pretty hype, kinda like MHW reception so far. Both will do well, though.

Define "well"
noshten
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(07-12-2017, 03:36 PM)
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Originally Posted by MANUELF

The same can be said to other 3rd party bombs on Nintendo consoles like Yakuza Collection

I don't think I've blamed the Wii U for YC bombing

Originally Posted by NintendosBooger

What's the excuse for Valkyria Revolution or GR2, then?

There is certainly titles that under-performed which could be blamed on PS4 ecosystem.
I just don't think that's the case with Gundam. There is a backlash about the game due to the way the paid DLC is rolled out and missing features in the game compared to previous entries.
Kenzodielocke
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(07-12-2017, 03:38 PM)
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Originally Posted by frankie_baby

Define "well"

It will be a drop off from DQ IX, but the revenue will stay about the same.
-Setsuna-
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(07-12-2017, 03:41 PM)
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Originally Posted by Nirolak

Sorry, I probably should have clarified I meant Japanese third party games.
So after Taiko or DQXI (which I'm guessing might be holiday 2017, at least for Taiko?), are there any titles that are considered larger games announced?

SMT V, Tales of something and Project Octopath Traveler.
frankie_baby
Member
(07-12-2017, 03:41 PM)

Originally Posted by Kenzodielocke

It will be a drop off from DQ IX, but the revenue will stay about the same.

Possibly when the switch version gets factored in but it'll be down on both with the initial release
▀ig
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(07-12-2017, 03:41 PM)
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Famitsu has Switch at 36k lol
KtSlime
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(07-12-2017, 03:41 PM)
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Originally Posted by Kenzodielocke

Sure, but a console DQ feels pretty hype, kinda like MHW reception so far. Both will do well, though.

I don't even have a TV (don't have the space, plus I don't have to deal with those NHK thugs). As a whole in Japan, television ownership is down, and is continuing a downward trend, especially in the 29 and under group.
TheLegendaryN
Junior Member
(07-12-2017, 03:42 PM)
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Originally Posted by MANUELF

The same can be said to other 3rd party bombs on Nintendo consoles like Yakuza Collection

That thing wasn't a great title though, but compared to PS3, the sales result on Wii U was very low, yeah. I think that has a lot to do with the Wii U though. I think a port of Yakuza Kiwami now (1.5 years after PS3/PS4 release) would do a lot better than the 1&2 'HD' port for Wii U back then (9 months after PS3 release).
Skittzo0413
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(07-12-2017, 03:43 PM)
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Originally Posted by LordKano

I think it's more that DQXI is launching on a tired 3DS and a PS4 that never took off, while DQIX launched on DS when it was still selling like hotcakes. I don't think it will do very well.

That's so weird to me as a western DQ fan because it seems like the first "real" DQ in ages since I haven't been able to play DQX, and it's an MMO anyway. So I'm super thirsty for a new DQ.

I guess hardware is having a big effect on it like you said.
Mpl90
Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
(07-12-2017, 03:43 PM)
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Originally Posted by schuelma

MH XX should still do ok-ish for what it is.

SMT has been announced.

Tales game is coming

I'd also add (assuming there aren't strange shenanigans about them) Story of Seasons and Derby Stallion as decent / good sellers.

Nobunaga's Ambition: Taishi could fit the bill as well, but it's shared with PS4 (the main series usually goes over quite over 100k for its LTD).
Mpl90
Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
(07-12-2017, 03:44 PM)
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Originally Posted by ▀ig

Famitsu has Switch at 36k lol

Ah yes, the classic Famitsu great differencies. Here's the full Top 30, by the way.

https://www.famitsu.com/biz/ranking/
Calm Mind
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(07-12-2017, 03:45 PM)
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I will wait for the superior Dengeki numbers.
LordKano
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(07-12-2017, 03:45 PM)
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Originally Posted by ▀ig

Famitsu has Switch at 36k lol

How
Nirolak
Mrgrgr
(07-12-2017, 03:46 PM)
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Since there was a question of what counts as big, I thought I'd try looking at this from a different angle.

I took the 3DS from its launch through March of the next year (due to how fiscal years work), and came up with the following Japanese third party titles that managed to sell 200K or more.

3DS:

Code:

Professor Layton and the Miracle Mask		117,859 / 396,914
One Piece: Unlimited Cruise SP			76,578 / 326,737
Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate [All Versions]	471,055 / 1,929,447
Inazuma Eleven Go: Light / Shadow		141,458 / 455,172
Resident Evil: Revelations [All Versions]	160,575 / 302,965
Harvest Moon: A New Beginning			79,809 / 264,042
Kingdom Hearts 3D: Dream Drop Distance		230,189 / 357,790
I repeated this with the PS4 and the Vita.

PS4:

Code:

Dragon Quest Heroes: The World Tree's Woe and the Blight Below	255,292 / 360,698
Vita:

Code:

Persona 4: Golden [All Versions]		152,499 / 345,377
Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f [All Versions]	158,009 / 227,492
The Vita does get an additional three or four months in this comparison, but it doesn't add any games.

I guess my question would be "Where do we feel the Switch will end up compared to these systems by April 2018?"
Last edited by Nirolak; 07-12-2017 at 03:49 PM.
schuelma
Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
(07-12-2017, 03:46 PM)
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Originally Posted by LordKano

How

superior tracker
schuelma
Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
(07-12-2017, 03:48 PM)
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Originally Posted by Nirolak


I guess my question would be "Where do we feel the Switch will end up compared to these systems by April 2018?"

Below 3DS above PS4/Vita is my guess. Of course, the bar is really really low (I have PS4 at 1 title- don't think GTA V would count).
L~A
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(07-12-2017, 03:49 PM)
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Originally Posted by Living the Dream

2DS XL

It's releasing next week.

Edit: as in, Week 28, not "next week" or Week 27 (this week).
Last edited by L~A; 07-12-2017 at 03:58 PM.
Nirolak
Mrgrgr
(07-12-2017, 03:49 PM)
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Originally Posted by schuelma

Below 3DS above PS4/Vita is my guess. Of course, the bar is really really low (I have PS4 at 1 title- don't think GTA V would count).

Whoops, included that one by accident. Thank you.

I guess to expand a bit, do you expect Story of Seasons, Taiko, or Tales to pass the 200K mark? Presumably Monster Hunter XX and Dragon Quest XI will.
Mpl90
Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
(07-12-2017, 03:51 PM)
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Originally Posted by Nirolak

Since there was a question of what counts as big, I thought I'd try looking at this from a different angle.

I took the 3DS from its launch through March of the next year (due to how fiscal years work), and came up with the following Japanese third party titles that managed to sell 200K or more.

3DS:

Code:

Professor Layton and the Miracle Mask		117,859 / 396,914
One Piece: Unlimited Cruise SP			76,578 / 326,737
Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate [All Versions]	471,055 / 1,929,447
Inazuma Eleven Go: Light / Shadow		141,458 / 455,172
Resident Evil: Revelations [All Versions]	160,575 / 302,965
Harvest Moon: A New Beginning			79,809 / 264,042
Kingdom Hearts 3D: Dream Drop Distance		230,189 / 357,790
I repeated this with the PS4 and the Vita.

PS4:

Code:

Grand Theft Auto V [All Versions]				73,167 / 501,599
Dragon Quest Heroes: The World Tree's Woe and the Blight Below	255,292 / 360,698
Vita:

Code:

Persona 4: Golden [All Versions]		152,499 / 345,377
Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f [All Versions]	158,009 / 227,492
The Vita does get an additional three or four months in this comparison, but it doesn't add any games.

I guess my question would be "Where do we feel the Switch will end up compared to these systems by April 2018?"

Grand Theft Auto V is the quintessence of Japanese, indeed :P

Seriously though, I wonder if Bomberman could actually do it as of March, 2018.
As for other games (I repeat: strange shenanigans pending), I suppose titles like Taiko, Tales of and Story of Seasons could have good / great possibilities of hitting that quota. Of course, it depends on when they actually release. MH XX has to be seen due to Capcom's shenanigans around it and MHW.
FairFriend
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(07-12-2017, 03:52 PM)
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I beg you pardon, I'm new to this thread, and tracking sales number in general, so I'd have a question. Between Famitsu and Media Create Sales, which one is considered to be the most reputable source?
Skullwaker
Junior Member
(07-12-2017, 03:53 PM)
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Originally Posted by Nirolak

I guess my question would be "Where do we feel the Switch will end up compared to these systems by April 2018?"

Probably less than 3DS but more than PS4/Vita.

Switch will have MHXX, DQXI (most likely before April 2018, I would hope), Tales, Taiko, Minecraft physical edition, Story of Seasons and maybe a couple surprises.
Zedark
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(07-12-2017, 03:54 PM)
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Originally Posted by FairFriend

I beg you pardon, I'm new to this thread, and tracking sales number in general, so I'd have a question. Between Famitsu and Media Create Sales, which one is considered to be the most reputable source?

Media Create is used as the leading tracker. Neither are perfect, of course, and the truth could very well be in the middle somewhere.
TheLegendaryN
Junior Member
(07-12-2017, 03:55 PM)
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Originally Posted by Nirolak

I guess my question would be "Where do we feel the Switch will end up compared to these systems by April 2018?"

Below 3DS, and probably above PS4 and Vita. The big question regarding third-party Switch games we already know about is, however, when will they come out? Story of Seasons will pretty well on 3DS last year, and I expect a new entry in the series to see similar success on the Switch. But we don't know if that's an 2017 game, Spring 2018 or maybe even later. Same goes for Taiko no Tatsujin, that's already getting a PS4 game this Fall.
schuelma
Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
(07-12-2017, 03:55 PM)
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Originally Posted by FairFriend

I beg you pardon, I'm new to this thread, and tracking sales number in general, so I'd have a question. Between Famitsu and Media Create Sales, which one is considered to be the most reputable source?

I like famitsu because I feel like generally you end up getting more complete data. As far as what is more accurate-I dunno. I think for the most part they end up leveling out.
LordRaptor
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(07-12-2017, 03:58 PM)
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Originally Posted by Oregano

Depends how low you want to set the bar. Story of Seasons is pretty big by modern JP standards.

Story of Seasons is potentially fighting directly against Stardew Valley at a cheaper price point
noshten
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(07-12-2017, 03:59 PM)
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Originally Posted by Nirolak

Since there was a question of what counts as big, I thought I'd try looking at this from a different angle.

I took the 3DS from its launch through March of the next year (due to how fiscal years work), and came up with the following Japanese third party titles that managed to sell 200K or more.

3DS:

Code:

Professor Layton and the Miracle Mask		117,859 / 396,914
One Piece: Unlimited Cruise SP			76,578 / 326,737
Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate [All Versions]	471,055 / 1,929,447
Inazuma Eleven Go: Light / Shadow		141,458 / 455,172
Resident Evil: Revelations [All Versions]	160,575 / 302,965
Harvest Moon: A New Beginning			79,809 / 264,042
Kingdom Hearts 3D: Dream Drop Distance		230,189 / 357,790
I guess my question would be "Where do we feel the Switch will end up compared to these systems by April 2018?"

Switch will have a 3rd party million seller by April 2018 - how much over a million depends on how much Nintendo ships to Japan and when Minecraft gets a physical release. But I'd say it's comparable to MH3U

Than you have DQXI/MHXX which would be in theory bigger than majority of the games you've listed for 3DS first year. Late port or not - DQXI on the Switch should push 500K units by April 2018 at the very least. MHXX is in a tough spot and a lot depends on how many bundles Nintendo actually decides to make available for the MHXX launch if they for example bundle 100K Switches with MHXX even people not interested in MHXX will end up adding to it's number.

After which there would be a bunch of games that would be over 100K with Bomberman R being the first one. We won't get the full picture until we see if more 3rd party titles are announced for this year but there could be a fare few games that reach this milestone even Western 3rd Party games like FIFA/Skyrim could do over 100K in Japan. I don't know about games passing 200K but to me there is a lot of games that could be in the region of 100-200K by April 2018.
Last edited by noshten; 07-12-2017 at 04:02 PM.
Nirolak
Mrgrgr
(07-12-2017, 03:59 PM)
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Originally Posted by TheLegendaryN

Below 3DS, and probably above PS4 and Vita. The big question regarding third-party Switch games we already know about is, however, when will they come out? Story of Seasons will pretty well on 3DS last year, and I expect a new entry in the series to see similar success on the Switch. But we don't know if that's an 2017 game, Spring 2018 or maybe even later. Same goes for Taiko no Tatsujin, that's already getting a PS4 game this Fall.

This was kind of the thing I was noting back before the unveil.

On the one hand, the 3DS started getting real third party support about 9 months into its life.

Both the PS4 and Vita took much closer to 18 months to truly get support in the door, and given the development requirements of the Switch are way more like those systems than the 3DS... and that's also true for general Japanese publisher enthusiasm toward the system... I get the impression that we might actually be waiting for years before we can really see what major Japanese third party games do on the platform.

You also left off that we don't actually know what the games are either. Like a port of Berseria is a very different proposition to a new title.
TheLegendaryN
Junior Member
(07-12-2017, 04:00 PM)
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Originally Posted by Mpl90

MH XX has to be seen due to Capcom's shenanigans around it and MHW.

We know the game will come out on Switch in Japan on August 25. MHW won't be out until 2018 (probably H2). Of course, Capcom does strange things sometimes, but I don't think they'll fuck up so hard that MHXX Switch won't reach 200k before April 2018. The 3DS game didn't sell as well as previous entries, but 200k is really low for a MH game. Even for a late port. Even for XX.
Aostia
El Capitan Todd
(07-12-2017, 04:00 PM)
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Originally Posted by ▀ig

Famitsu has Switch at 36k lol


Those magical hardware eshop cards tracked by Famitsu!
Zedark
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(07-12-2017, 04:04 PM)
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Preorders for MHXX Switch are bad, but how much of that can be attributed to the Switch bundles that were made available? Those probably fly under the radar (for comgnet.com, since that's where we are getting the impression from), so the real situation should be better. It depends on how many bundle they made available, I guess. Don't know what's reasonable to expect here.

Originally Posted by Vena

You should keep your MHXX expectations low.

I do, don't worry :) Just curious if those bundles affect early preorders.
Last edited by Zedark; 07-12-2017 at 04:06 PM.
Vena
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(07-12-2017, 04:05 PM)
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Originally Posted by Zedark

Preorders for MHXX Switch are bad, but how much of that can be attributed to the Switch bundles that were made available? Those probably fly under the radar (for comgnet.com, since that's where we are getting the impression from), so the real situation should be better. It depends on how many bundle they made available, I guess. Don't know what's reasonable to expect here.

You should keep your MHXX expectations low.
NotLiquid
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(07-12-2017, 04:06 PM)
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Aside from Dragon Quest (and maybe PokÚmon but I'm starting to have my doubts) what games are coming out this year that will likely outperform Splatoon 2? Because thinking back at it, I feel like I underestimate just how big this game is going to be in Japan.
Gotdatmoney
Member
(07-12-2017, 04:07 PM)
MHXX is gonna do pretty bad. The potential was there but what Capcom did with World has positioned the title poorly. I am not even confident it crosses 200k anymore.
Last edited by Gotdatmoney; 07-12-2017 at 04:09 PM.
schuelma
Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
(07-12-2017, 04:08 PM)
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Originally Posted by Vena

You should keep your MHXX expectations low.

I think 200K LTD is still pretty realistic. That's really really low for a portable MH game.
Mpl90
Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
(07-12-2017, 04:09 PM)
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Originally Posted by TheLegendaryN

We know the game will come out on Switch in Japan on August 25. MHW won't be out until 2018 (probably H2). Of course, Capcom does strange things sometimes, but I don't think they'll fuck up so hard that MHXX Switch won't reach 200k before April 2018. The 3DS game didn't sell as well as previous entries, but 200k is really low for a MH game. Even for a late port. Even for XX.

You need to consider that MH XX Nintendo Switch Vers. should be compared with the other two late HD-ports in the MH franchise (Famitsu)

PS3 Monster Hunter Freedom 3 HD Ver. 282.960 441.375 Capcom 8/25/2011
WIU Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate 110.149 224.986 Capcom 12/8/2012

Even without what's going on with Capcom and the MH franchise, the game's ceiling can't be realistically too high.

Still, I can see Comgnet preorders not being exactly truthful for several reasons, like bundles not getting counted, the console (potentially) having much higher sales compared to the current levels leading to more customers potentially purchasing it without preorders.
Skullwaker
Junior Member
(07-12-2017, 04:09 PM)
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Originally Posted by NotLiquid

Aside from Dragon Quest (and maybe PokÚmon but I'm starting to have my doubts) what games are coming out this year that will likely outperform Splatoon 2? Because thinking back at it, I feel like I underestimate just how big this game is going to be in Japan.

I can't think of a title outside of DQ/PokÚmon that has the potential. Splatoon 2 will be huge.
Zedark
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(07-12-2017, 04:11 PM)
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Originally Posted by NotLiquid

Aside from Dragon Quest (and maybe PokÚmon but I'm starting to have my doubts) what games are coming out this year that will likely outperform Splatoon 2? Because thinking back at it, I feel like I underestimate just how big this game is going to be in Japan.

None. PokÚmon US/UM has a good chance, third versions/sequels still sell very well (gen 5 sequel sold 40% less in the first week than the original Black and White games).
schuelma
Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
(07-12-2017, 04:11 PM)
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I think its pretty clear that XX isn't going to lead to MH diehards suddenly buying the console. If XX does ok it will be Switch owners who bought it for Splatoon 2 wanting a new multi player game after a month of Splatoon 2.
TheLegendaryN
Junior Member
(07-12-2017, 04:12 PM)
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Originally Posted by Nirolak

This was kind of the thing I was noting back before the unveil.

On the one hand, the 3DS started getting real third party support about 9 months into its life.

Both the PS4 and Vita took much closer to 18 months to truly get support in the door, and given the development requirements of the Switch are way more like those systems than the 3DS... and that's also true for general Japanese publisher enthusiasm toward the system... I get the impression that we might actually be waiting for years before we can really see what major Japanese third party games do on the platform.

I think there's a lot more announced from Japanese third-parties already than for the PS4 at the time. PS4 didn't really get Japanese support until after a year (early 2015). Although the efforts so far for Switch are low (late ports and such), at least they're releasing games. The console market has shrunk a lot since 2011, so I don't think less enthusiasm is a Switch-specific thing. Most devs were still developing for the PS4/Vita combo, and will take Switch into consideration for new projects, which are then likely Spring 2018 titles (or later). The same happened with the PS4, except that console didn't have the first-party support that appeals to the Japanese audience.

Originally Posted by Nirolak

You also left off that we don't actually know what the games are either. Like a port of Berseria is a very different proposition to a new title.

My guess is a brand-new title, releasing for both PS4 and Switch. I will be disappointed if it turns out to be a smaller game like the ones we've seen on Vita and 3DS (aside from Tales of the Abyss ofc). I think it's been too long since the original release of Berseria for a port.
schuelma
Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
(07-12-2017, 04:13 PM)
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Originally Posted by TheLegendaryN




My guess is a brand-new title, releasing for both PS4 and Switch. I will be disappointed if it turns out to be a smaller game like the ones we've seen on Vita and 3DS (aside from Tales of the Abyss ofc). I think it's been too long since the original release of Berseria for a port.

The switch game is coming by end of fiscal year so its most likely a enhanced port of some kind.
FairFriend
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(07-12-2017, 04:15 PM)
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Originally Posted by Zedark

Media Create is used as the leading tracker. Neither are perfect, of course, and the truth could very well be in the middle somewhere.

Originally Posted by schuelma

I like famitsu because I feel like generally you end up getting more complete data. As far as what is more accurate-I dunno. I think for the most part they end up leveling out.

thank you for the answers

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