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NPD Sales Results For February 2017 [Up1: For Honor highest LTD game of 2017 so far]

Thorrgal

Member
I think we're past the point where people care. By all means the One has done far better than the Wii U (and slightly better than the 360 launch aligned) in North America but you wouldn't know it from Halo/Gears sales (compared to exclusives on those platforms).

While they're in a good place with third party games, MS has to be a little concerned that the only recent first party title to overachieve was Horizon 3.



Not really, aren't scores trending downwards over time?

78 is described as good on every major review site.

Agree. 78 is 4 star out of 5, so how can that be meh? Is just a perception problem
 
I still don't agree. I just feel bad genres and titles are missing and I feel publishers aren't taking a chance with many of them

Silent Hill
Dmc
Ridge racer
Motorstorm
Sly cooper

Arcade racers, kart racers, platformees, fps set outside of sprint and sight aiming, extreme sports and the list goes on. I'd love to see a new hydro, or water inspired game.

Not only that but getting those games with a budget that these other games get may even work out well.

Even crash got a sub par budget that doesn't justify the hardware. It's hard to say these things won't sell when they have had no chance the whole generation.

It's good to atleast get the niohs, re7 and other Japan games atleast but would be nice if the west can make games that dobt follow formulas and fears so much too imo

I just don't want to keep seeing last of us, cinematic or open games from Sony. They were so good last gen at getting out a great range of games. Arcade racers, platformers, action, story, rpg and just great titles. I feel they have done an 180 based off what they see in open world honestly.



I do believe there is cause of concern for everyone about this trend. Not just me, you but devs, and all gamers.

If these games take off more and more as they seem to be doing it will equal less types of games and more time spent in those open world games and less games being bought overall. Why does a far cry or Zelda love we newest to buy another game for months when they are spending 100 hours on this game. Even the publisher of said game can eventually be affected on near releases titles. Sure if ubi soft sells 5 to 8 million on every game they won't care and will just keep making those games I we and over but something has to give. Other games won't sell in those situations. Just seems like a bleak scenario for gamers overall. Not just me, but many of us. I think we saw that and felt that.

It wasn't too this year that it seemed good games actually made it out but sales were never the issue on the titles we felt went that amazing or the best of the best.

You are still wrong. I was going to correct you, but someone already did:

All of these genres exist on the current platforms as indies. So it seems what you're actually asking for is expensive retail versions of these genres. I therefore don't think it's surprising those are sparse on the ground. That said...



...this analysis doesn't seem very observant. Even just this year, Sony will release:
Arcade racer - Wipeout
Platformer - Dreams
Action - MatterFall
Story - Detroit
RPG - Horizon

Along with these will come a sim racer, sim sport, arcade sports, brawler, rhythm games, and FPS.

Diversity doesn't seem as low as you claim.

So again, your feeling is not what's actually happening in the market.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Other 1st parties are not currently included in the digital leader panel. Workin on it.



This has been such an interesting couple of weeks for this!

I don't think the subscription services will negatively impact sales of new packaged/digital games significantly, at least not in the short/mid term.

In fact, I think there's opportunity for franchises to be tested for interest and potentially revived, which could potentially lead to higher overall sales.

I do think the potential for exponential growth exists for subscription spending, and I do think that the Xbox Game Pass will be a more appealing option for consumers with a higher time aligned adoption rate than PSNow.

So I'm bullish, just have to see how XGP is executed.

What do you think?

DUDE! Gotta say, you are super engaging and one of the best people on GAF. Thanks for all you do.
 

Curufinwe

Member
Colin Moriarty said it was going to bomb and we all know he's always right so must be some kind of mistake

I don't what it is with people, especially people who reports on games, making sales predictions or downplaying sales numbers based on their personal level of interest in a game.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
I don't what it is with people, especially people who reports on games, making sales predictions or downplaying sales numbers based on their personal level of interest in a game.

Colin and others also said that the PS3/Xbox360 era would be the end to all consoles and that the "next-gen" era would fail hard. That and that E3 should be abolished (they started saying this about 10 years ago)

I have ZERO idea why he and some others are so negative toward the industry that they report on so much.
 
Agree. 78 is 4 star out of 5, so how can that be meh? Is just a perception problem
The problem is that a 100 point scale and a 5 star scale have not been used in mathematically equivalent ways. For example, traditionally a 3/5 has been used to identify average while it's mathematically equivalent 50/100 represents failing. Trying to directly equate the two rating systems is just wrong.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
The problem is that a 100 point scale and a 5 star scale have not been used in mathematically equivalent ways. For example, traditionally a 3/5 has been used to identify average while it's mathematically equivalent 50/100 represents failing. Trying to directly equate the two rating systems is just wrong.

No a 3/5 would be a 60% or 60/100 equivalent.
 

timberger

Member
Good point.

Because the current XB1 user base is as high as the 360 was at that point.

And the physical:digital ratio are probably exactly the same as well. ESP with Play Anywhere.

Those two things probably don't factor in at all.

That being said yes obviously there was a decline but to act like HW2 is a clear sign is just silly IMO

Obnoxious sarcasm at multiple posters and yet you agreed that it's an ip in decline anyway? Good talk.
 
Colin and others also said that the PS3/Xbox360 era would be the end to all consoles and that the "next-gen" era would fail hard. That and that E3 should be abolished (they started saying this about 10 years ago)

I have ZERO idea why he and some others are so negative toward the industry that they report on so much.

They are somewhat right about E3. Most journalist have repeated the same opinion. The convention is getting smaller and less important compared to others.
 
I wish I could've contributed to Nioh Charting in the top ten. But sadly it was sold out at retail, so I imagine many like myself bought it digitally.

Congrats, for being such an amazing game.

I have a feeling the digital split for Nioh is actually higher than average due to the stock issues. And when you consider that the Deluxe Edition was digital only.
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
I have a feeling the digital split for Nioh is actually higher than average due to the stock issues. And when you consider that the Deluxe Edition was digital only.

47% is really strong but it's not mind blowing and not the highest for the month
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
47% is really strong but it's not mind blowing and not the highest for the month

Holy shit, that's a high digital share. So, this means

Nioh total sales - 230,000
Nioh digital (47%) - 108,000
Nioh retail (53%) - 122,000

I'm wondering how much did Halo Wars 2 sell, then.
 
No a 3/5 would be a 60% or 60/100 equivalent.
No, a 3/5 would be 50.5% on average but it's silly to go to that level of precision on a 5 unit scale. Therefore I said 50%.
  • 1/5: 1-20%
  • 2/5: 21-40%
  • 3/5: 41-60%
  • 4/5: 61-80%
  • 5/5: 81-100%
Regardless, mathematically directly equating the scales is silly because they are ultimately derived from measuring two separate things. The 100 point scale is typically based on the percent correct on some test. A 50% means that 50% of the answers were right. It was NOT meant to measure quality. Getting 50% of the answers right has usually been considered failing. Getting 70-79% right was considered an average result as far as quality goes. Those same assumptions were used when the same scale was grafted onto directly measuring quality.

Meanwhile the 5 point rating system has always been defined to directly measure quality with a 3/5 being defined as average. So directly mathematically mapping one scale to another ignores what the scales mean to most people. That in turn makes the result of such a combination...say it with me....silly.
 

RexNovis

Banned
47% is really strong but it's not mind blowing and not the highest for the month

I mean considering it doesn't have a PC release to bolster digital sell through like For Honor I'd say that's incredibly high. It's clear Sony's shipment fell far short of meeting demand. which doesn't suppose me sinceif your figures are right they probably shipped something around 125k copies to retailers despite having successful Alpha, Beta and Last Chance Demos that proved there was at least a moderately high demand for the game. Hopefully the demand for the game keeps up and it has some legs as more stock starts hitting stores.
 
I mean considering it doesn't have a PC release to bolster digital sell through like For Honor I'd say that's incredibly high. It's clear Sony's shipment fell far short of meeting demand. which doesn't suppose me sinceif your figures are right they probably shipped something around 125k copies to retailers despite having successful Alpha, Beta and Last Chance Demos that proved there was at least a moderately high demand for the game. Hopefully the demand for the game keeps up and it has some legs as more stock starts hitting stores.

I think the Alpha, Beta and Last Chance demos are particularly the reason the game was undershipped. I think, while it's a different market, you can draw that conclusion by looking at the Japanese preorder numbers and what it actually launched to. It was expected to open at around 40k given pre-launch demand (pre-orders which are influenced by alphas/betas) but actually ended up selling far more and launched to 72k due to, I would wager, strong word of mouth immediately post launch.
 
It's a fighting game presented as a third person action game.

The main mode is a 4v4 territory control game (plus a ton of AI units) where you duel as Knights, Vikings, or Samurai is a fairly indepth melee combat system with lots of fighting game mechanics baked in.

There's full 3D movement like you'd see in any other third person game like the Souls series of whatever.

There are also 1v1 and 2v2 duel modes that are a bit more like joining a fighting game match.

Edit:

This might help visualize it:

for-honor-environmentqssw0.gif
That actually looks pretty sick. It's on my radar now!
75% Street Fighter
25% Dynasty Warriors

Got it,
 

Skyzard

Banned
It was on sale for cheap at uPlay.

Also, the game is really awesome. My favourite thing along with BotW atm. I've put 60 hours into both and not stopping.

--(I'm talking about for honor).
 
I think it would be mind blowing depending on the game. This game was undershipped and it had good word of mouth, so itd be expected that people would buy it digitally because they wanna play it

i don't think that is how it works in any significant numbers
when you want to buy digital, you buy digital
if you want to buy physical, you want to buy physical.

a person who want to buy phsyical in the first place and can't find a copy, doesn't seem to be the kind of persons who would switch to digital in that case, just because they need to play the game immediately that desperate



NIHO just attract a very hardcore customer base with high digital penetration.
Just like Bloodborn and and Souls games

Wasn't Bloodborn the highest ever launch Digital Attachrate on Ps4 in Japan?
It was certainly at that time. Not sure if still
 

Chobel

Member
Interesting that For Honor sold "a lot more" on XB1, seeing UK sales I expected the game to have similar attach rate on the two consoles. Was the game heavily advertised for Xbox? Because I don't buy the "PS4 had more exclusives in Q1"
 

lumzi23

Member
No, a 3/5 would be 50.5% on average but it's silly to go to that level of precision on a 5 unit scale. Therefore I said 50%.
  • 1/5: 1-20%
  • 2/5: 21-40%
  • 3/5: 41-60%
  • 4/5: 61-80%
  • 5/5: 81-100%
Regardless, mathematically directly equating the scales is silly because they are ultimately derived from measuring two separate things. The 100 point scale is typically based on the percent correct on some test. A 50% means that 50% of the answers were right. It was NOT meant to measure quality. Getting 50% of the answers right has usually been considered failing. Getting 70-79% right was considered an average result as far as quality goes. Those same assumptions were used when the same scale was grafted onto directly measuring quality.

Meanwhile the 5 point rating system has always been defined to directly measure quality with a 3/5 being defined as average. So directly mathematically mapping one scale to another ignores what the scales mean to most people. That in turn makes the result of such a combination...say it with me....silly.

Um, wouldn't 50% be 2.5/5 stars (though I guess that would be a 10 point scale)? I don't think that when reviewers are rating things based on stars that they are doing it with ranges of percentages in mind.
 

Welfare

Member
Interesting that For Honor sold "a lot more" on XB1, seeing UK sales I expected the game to have similar attach rate on the two consoles. Was the game heavily advertised for Xbox? Because I don't buy the "PS4 had more exclusives in Q1"

I don't think there was any specific marketing deal in place with Xbox and PS4.

Also yeah, the amount of games on PS4 (barely more) compared to Xbox has no effect on third party sales.

Why wouldn't 3rd party games always sell more on Xbox if it were a matter of "PS4 gamers have too much to play"? There was a reason Xbox lead sales for this specific game but what that is not known.
 

blakep267

Member
Interesting that For Honor sold "a lot more" on XB1, seeing UK sales I expected the game to have similar attach rate on the two consoles. Was the game heavily advertised for Xbox? Because I don't buy the "PS4 had more exclusives in Q1"
I mean the US and U.K. Don't always match up 1 for 1. They're similar but they do diverge. Like for example I'm assuming that Ghost recon would have a split that slightly favors the PS4 in the U.K., but id thinki it would be much more skewed towards the Xbox in the US
 
I don't think there was any specific marketing deal in place with Xbox and PS4.

Also yeah, the amount of games on PS4 (barely more) compared to Xbox has no effect on third party sales.

Why wouldn't 3rd party games always sell more on Xbox if it were a matter of "PS4 gamers have too much to play"? There was a reason Xbox lead sales for this specific game but what that is not known.

I don't think you can say that more games have no effect on third party sales. It's likely that those extra games didn't have a notable impact on the PS4 share of For Honor but without sales numbers (aka, what exactly is "significantly more on XB1") that seems a bit too speculative.

The gap matters and while stuff like Nioh isn't a huge title, Horizon did release later in the month (with a fairly early embargo).
 

Ion Guru

Member
I was really hoping to see Yakuza 0 break the top 10 for PS4, it's truly an incredible game. I hope it's selling above expectations regardless.

I am glad to see Nioh sold very well though. It's a great spin on the Dark Souls formula and the combat just plays sooo well. I'm surprised sales are down compared to February 2016. The first quarter of 2017 has been insane with top quality releases.
 
I was really hoping to see Yakuza 0 break the top 10 for PS4, it's truly an incredible game. I hope it's selling above expectations regardless.

I am glad to see Nioh sold very well though. It's a great spin on the Dark Souls formula and the combat just plays sooo well. I'm surprised sales are down compared to February 2016. The first quarter of 2017 has been insane with top quality releases.

It's likely above expectations but it is still a super niche game.
 

gtj1092

Member
Interesting that For Honor sold "a lot more" on XB1, seeing UK sales I expected the game to have similar attach rate on the two consoles. Was the game heavily advertised for Xbox? Because I don't buy the "PS4 had more exclusives in Q1"

Who said it sold "alot more"? Also did they mean alot more in actual units or alot more than expected due to the hardware difference?
 
One correction, thanks to Sam Naji for setting me straight:

Digital sales of 1st party published games are included in the total spend calculation but removed from the individual title rankings.

... is incorrect.

As of now, digital sales of 1st party published games are excluded from both the total spend calc as well as individual title rankings.

On that final sentence, do you think the latter might actually be the bigger problem than the former?

Yep, finding people is very difficult. The pull of mobile and independent development has lured away some great talent that would otherwise be making games.

And in regards to the money... the money is definitely there, it's just that risk aversion is still the rule of the day. So, lots of money is around, but getting $50 or $75 or $100 million to make a new IP approved is a tough and lengthy process.

But yes I'd agree that, given how long dev cycles have gotten, the people problem is a big one.

DUDE! Gotta say, you are super engaging

Hey thanks! Posters in these threads have given me great ideas and are very sharp, I'm just trying to give back as much as I take.
 

UberTag

Member
Ghost Recon is going to absolutely slay next month.

The tears will be glorious ;)
I'm more amazed at people on this board being shocked it's selling well in every country including Japan. People under estimate Ubisoft and what they make for the mass market.
People need to stop underestimating Ubisoft's marketing machine.
They're the Jerry Bruckheimer / Michael Bay for the gaming industry.
Everything they make is a license to print money irrespective of its quality.
They make fun sandboxes for people to play with other people. And they do it better than anybody else.
Enthusiasts should be happy we have so many games from talented developers that aren't employing the Ubisoft game development model to spend their time and money on.

Surprised software sales were down so much in Feb. Seemed like that would have been in good shape given the number of quality releases.
There's a reason why most games are typically crammed into the 4th quarter instead of the 1st.
We may be swimming in riches of game quality but a lot of these 1st quarter gems aren't selling at the same high pace as their Metacritic scores.

Incidentally, this is also why concerns about Microsoft's poor Q1 output are overblown.
 

spared

Member
All of these genres exist on the current platforms as indies. So it seems what you're actually asking for is expensive retail versions of these genres. I therefore don't think it's surprising those are sparse on the ground. That said...



...this analysis doesn't seem very observant. Even just this year, Sony will release:
Arcade racer - Wipeout
Platformer - Dreams
Action - MatterFall
Story - Detroit
RPG - Horizon

Along with these will come a sim racer, sim sport, arcade sports, brawler, rhythm games, and FPS.

Diversity doesn't seem as low as you claim.

There is not only Sony on the market. Glad to be multiplatform, I understand this statement as made initially for gaming in general, not only what Sony let releasing on their platform, especially that these are not stellar titles. I, too, feel that in general, we don't have a good QUALITY mix of everything. We have everything, but not much quality. I personally would not call Wipeout a good Arcade Racer...F-Zero clone wanna be is what I find it is here. It's not that it's super bad, but I get the feeling that it wants too much to be like F-Zero and that makes it fail miserably each time with every iteration they come up with.
 
People need to stop underestimating Ubisoft's marketing machine.
They're the Jerry Bruckheimer / Michael Bay for the gaming industry.
Everything they make is a license to print money irrespective of its quality.
They make fun sandboxes for people to play with other people. And they do it better than anybody else.
Enthusiasts should be happy we have so many games from talented developers that aren't employing the Ubisoft game development model to spend their time and money on.


There's a reason why most games are typically crammed into the 4th quarter instead of the 1st.
We may be swimming in riches of game quality but a lot of these 1st quarter gems aren't selling at the same high pace as their Metacritic scores.

Incidentally, this is also why concerns about Microsoft's poor Q1 output are overblown.

Or they just make fun games. Every part of Wildlands marketing made me not want the game. I rented it because a friend convinced me and I loved every second of it.
 

Clear

CliffyB's Cock Holster
There's a reason why most games are typically crammed into the 4th quarter instead of the 1st.

"Most" games aren't though. Subtract the big annual franchises and its pretty ordinary for releases. Because its the most challengingly competitive quarter for anything but the behemoths.

What's noteworthy too is that with these heavy-hitters being multi-platform for the most part, its when the big third-parties are making their biggest revenue gains of the year, and by extension so are the console platform-holders with their residuals from licensing.

In simple terms, when the big parties are already shaking the money tree, it doesn't make a great deal of sense to get in their way.

Q4 is harvest season, Q1-Q3 are when seeds are sown for the future. Slack release schedules outside of Q4 basically shows a lack of vision in terms of future growth.
 
Xbox 360 first 40 months + PS3 first 40 months: 26,317,000
Xbox One + PS4: 34,475,000 (+31%)

I have combined LTD at 33,721,000 so February would be ~754,000.

Something had to be changed as 754K would be above 2016's 653K, unless XB1+PS4 are actually up YoY?

31% is somewhat inexact, +/-0.5% is like a 130k difference
 
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