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Pachter on PS5: Bets on 2020 launch now, PS4 Pro to become "default PS4"
- Thread starter Bitch Pudding
- Start date
Has anyone kept a log of Pachter predictions and how often they pan out?
I mean he has been this industry "insider" for years now with a thread on Neogaf every time he puts a prediction out there. I would love to see a breakdown of how often he is correct. If it is over 50% I would be surprised.
I mean he has been this industry "insider" for years now with a thread on Neogaf every time he puts a prediction out there. I would love to see a breakdown of how often he is correct. If it is over 50% I would be surprised.
He's an industry insider? Like, access to inside information? I thought he was an analyst instead.
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
This would be fine and it's the most likely way this industry will continue. I agree.
Lets assume PS5 is coming Fall 2020 using 7nm FinFET - semi-custom Zen2 and Navi APU. PS5 Pro in 2023 or 2024 - on one of the proposed 5nm or 3nm nodes.
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2017/06/ibm-5nm-chip/?comments=1
PS5 Pro could also use AMD's modular APU design with cpu and gpu chiplets and future stacked memory. The GPU architecture can be anything. The same as what PS5 uses, or forward from Navi.
Whatever performance the base PS5 has, PS5 Pro would have 2x to 4x the GPU performance, the same CPU architecture but clocked quite a bit faster. It would function exactly like the PS4 Pro.
One thing I would say is that IMHO you are being too optimistic with the 3-5 nm timescales. Nothing seems to say that problems in manufacturing and process scaling are diminishing instead of increasing.
Well I think that the assumption would be that he at least has access to NPD numbers. And considering his job is analysis of the industry, he should be in contact with the various studios, publishers, and console makers if he is doing his job at any level of compentcy.
So yes I would consider that to be an insider. If he is doing any less then that, then his predictions should be held in the same regard as any random Gaffer.
The Artisan
Member
2019 could be the end yeah but I'd prefer this gen stays living till 2020.
Pro doesnt need to be a baseline. Itll still get most PS5 games from third parties because theyll still be using PC development and will cut back to support pro (and PS4) for at least a couple of years after PS5 launch.
Basically cross gen but so much simpler for developers that itll be even more common than PS3-PS4
Basically cross gen but so much simpler for developers that itll be even more common than PS3-PS4
TheExecutive
Member
Based on previous evidence- which is all we have- a late 2019 or early 2020 release is a pretty safe bet.
Graphics Horse
Member
early 2020 was my guess too but I don't remember any actual evidence for it.
Someone suggested the idea of launching in September 2020* as PS's 25th anniversary which was interesting. I expect both Sony and Microsoft to have something out before the end of 2020.
*that would be US anniversary not Japanese, which was Dec 1994.
Sony aren't worried about Microsoft.
ThatFrenchGuy
Banned
Yeah, Sony are too strong to worry about little Microsofty...
Shin
Banned
Would be great also and gives them time to stock up for holidays.
FreeMufasa
Junior Member
What kind of system features can we expect from a ps5/next gen console?
This gen brought the sharing and streaming revolutikn
This gen brought the sharing and streaming revolutikn
Freshmaker
I am Korean.
Ryzen doesn't have the busted cache limitations that bulldozer etc had. Ryzen has basically mooted the intel range up through the i5.
...
What do you think he analyzes?
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
What specifically makes PS4 Pro cross-platform development inherently any easier than PS3 cross-platform development?
I can't think of a single reason...
Also, I'm not sure what PC development has to do with making PS4 Pro-PS5 cross-platform development easier. The three are separate platforms (with of course the Pro being closer to PS4), so I don't think development on PC has any bearing on PS4 Pro or PS5 development.
Would be nice to see - but I'm not holding much hope yet. Considering you get 2+ speedup by default - for a small portion of an already small market, the motivation for specialized support is next to none.c0de said:
PS3 codebase deviation was rather significant, I guess the expectation is that won't be the case with next gen (akin to PC where codebases change slower and over much longer periods of time than has been the case traditionally on consoles).TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Sorry, I should have phrased the question better. The person I was responding to was actually talking about "cross-generation development", i.e. at the launch of the PS4.
By that point, every developer had spent the last 7 years maturing their engine codebase and tools for PS3, so developing a game simultaneously for both PS3 and PS4 was no issue at the time (you could probably assume that development on PS4 was more challenging, with that being the new platform with a less mature SDKit probably wasn't though).
PS5 being architecturally more like PS4 would mean PS5 development alongside PS4 might be a little easier, but neither has anything to do with PC development or PS4 Pro; as the other poster was implying.
The problem this time is Microsoft has absolutely nothing to sell people. Nothing hugely new or great, and that is their own fault. I would have thought they would have 2-3 studios right now pushing some AAA experience. But they don't.
A 360 turnaround is not likely any time soon here. I am sure Sony is paying attention to sales and stuff. Particularly after the launch here of the X. I bet they have made no concrete decisions yet. If sales for the X are good and continue to be good they might be thinking 2019.
So pachter thinks Sony will do it like Apple and their systems will be cross generational, if so it makes sense to draw the line somewhere and end up the support of the lowest model so they can take more advantage of ps5 power and won't be held back by the lowest common denominator (base ps4).
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
I do wonder whether it would be technically and economically feasible for Sony/AMD to engineer a PS4 APU for the 7nm manufacturing process?
I think we all agree that PS4 Pro will never become the base PS4, neither in terms of development target min. spec, nor which of the two SKUs Sony will push their marketing weight behind.
There is, however, a strong business case for a cost-reduced PS4 super slim unit. At 7nm, the PS4 APU would be tiny and consume very little power at all, so the potential for accessing much wider price sensitive markets (e.g. foreign markets) is much greater. If they can pack it all inside a nice svelte little box design (e.g. like the PS2 slim or the GOAT PSOne) they could really see the PS4 take off in emerging markets and possibly even approach PS2's EoL LTD numbers and longevity.
I think we all agree that PS4 Pro will never become the base PS4, neither in terms of development target min. spec, nor which of the two SKUs Sony will push their marketing weight behind.
There is, however, a strong business case for a cost-reduced PS4 super slim unit. At 7nm, the PS4 APU would be tiny and consume very little power at all, so the potential for accessing much wider price sensitive markets (e.g. foreign markets) is much greater. If they can pack it all inside a nice svelte little box design (e.g. like the PS2 slim or the GOAT PSOne) they could really see the PS4 take off in emerging markets and possibly even approach PS2's EoL LTD numbers and longevity.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
But the PS4 Pro will hold back the PS5...
The Pro still has the same 2013 notebook-level CPU. If the PS5 launches with a Zen CPU (which of course it will) the PS5 CPU will be light years ahead of even the Pro in CPU performance, meaning that even setting the Pro as a base min. spec. will be significantly hobbling next-gen games development for the next 7+ years...
...no thanks.
almostjuliuscaesar
Member
was gonna post something like this when i saw the quote. he changed his old 2019 prediction. can't in anyway see Sony putting out a PS5 before 2020. the pro allowed them to mitigate the new 7+ year cycle. we thought it was an anomaly last gen but it's probably what is required now to get the desired CPU change. 4-5 years simply isn't enough time anymore.
That and longer development times means nobody is ready to move forward a generation in 4-5 years.
KillerMan91
Member
I really don't think that PS4 Pro will get its own version of next gen games if there is no base PS4 version. Base PS4 together with Pro will get the usual launch year crossgen ports and then they are abandoned for next gen only titles.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Yeah, that's how I also think it will pan out.
I completely agree. The PS4 Pro exists only to drive higher resolution versions of PS4 titles. Anything that can run on the PS4 Pro can run just fine on a PS4 so long as you're willing to give up resolution, so there's absolutely no reason for any developer to drop PS4 support unless they're jumping all the way to a PS5 exclusive.
almostjuliuscaesar
Member
precisely. just look at how long it took to get GTAV out in the same generation vs San Andreas to IV, which constituted a whole new wonky (looking at you CELL processor) CPU set from a new generation, and even additional full content DLC.
Shin
Banned
Perhaps Patcher meant that PS4 Pro will be the only version available after PS5 launch, which I highly doubt since it's not for the mass market.
Furthermore it has the least/smallest userbase between the two so why would developers even bother with that model, it's a business suicide.
Furthermore it has the least/smallest userbase between the two so why would developers even bother with that model, it's a business suicide.
almostjuliuscaesar
Member
how? the PS3 didn't hold back the PS4 and the PS2 certainly didn't hold back the PS3. The change to a more PC like architecture allows devs much more freedom in scaling. You will see instances of games not only looking better but having different tangible features because of CPU disparity.
almostjuliuscaesar
Member
if the PS4 Pro can be reduced to ~$199 by the launch of PS5 there would be no reason to sell the standard PS4 anymore. People wouldn't be losing out on anything but an even cheaper price. People still holding on to base model PS4s wouldn't be left out because the pro games would still run on it regardless. them sharing a CPU means almost no matter what backwards compatibility is ensured.
Shin
Banned
Pro isn't going to surpass the base/original model, never ever.
Too much work, too little return, there's a higher chance PlayStation kills off Pro instead of the O.G.
Plus by having that on the market it might create more doubt in buyer's mind, do they really need a PS5 when Pro looks "so good".
It's a gap filler between PS4 and PS5 yet not great at either IMHO, take notice that Sony doesn't push Pro or bundles as much either.
That itself is rather telling, it currently exists to cater a niche few that wanted a new toy but it's not their main bread and butter I don't see that changing even after PS5 is released.
Theslammer
Member
I still think Horizon 2 is coming out near the end of this gen, but I only have a gut feeling on that and nothing else, so nobody assume this is some insider info. =P
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
You're misunderstanding what a "PC-like architecture in a console" actually means. It certainly doesn't allow developers more freedom in scaling software. The developers own game engine and production pipeline achieves that.
The biggest benefit of the traditional console generation is the hard cut-off and significant raising of the minimum target specification that a new-generation of hardware provides.
Whilst the PS4 Pro provides greater performance than the base PS4 model, the CPU is essentially the same. It's also significantly weaker than a next-gen Zen-based CPU would be. So while, with the transition from PS3 (with a fairly weak CPU) to PS4 (again a fairly weak CPU), game experiences didn't seem to differ too much in terms of simulation complexity (i.e. the 3D simulation driven by the CPU) and the biggest improvements were in graphics, a next-gen Zen CPU in a console promises to offer desktop PC-level CPU performance; thus an improvement much more significant than the last generational transition.
If developers are mandated to continue to support the PS4 Pro as a minimum spec. then game simulation complexity simply cannot move forwards, because the Jaguar CPU simply cannot compare to a Zen. Allowing developers to focus on Zen development (later in the gen when PS5/NxtBox become the exclusively targeted platforms), allows developers to create games they simply couldn't run on a PS4 and by extension the Pro... not because of the GPU performance, but because the CPU simply wouldn't be able to cope at all.
When it comes to games, whilst game engines today are probably more scale-able than they have ever been, games themselves are not infinitely scaleable. If the developer envisions a game designed around simulating fluid mechanics, for example, that a Jaguar CPU simply couldn't run at real-time framerates, then in a situation where he/she is forced to target the Pro as a baseline min. spec. he/she would either have to forgo the design for the game entirely or essentially gimp it on that platform to the point in which it becomes a completely different game (i.e. a non-starter for developer who values their reputation and the quality of the products they produce).
almostjuliuscaesar
Member
i think you're confusing my point. Zen v Jaguar obviously has a large disparity, but my point is that it would not hold the PS5 back. If the developer wants to do something the PS4 cannot do, that wouldn't be a cross-gen game. It would simply be a next gen exclusive. Sony would never mandate that every PS5 game must run on PS4. That would be foolish. But every dev is not creating super magical CPU heavy games that cannot run on that older hardware. Sure the PS4's CPU was old by PC standards when it released but it was still a difference from the PS3 and here we are today with amazing games that aren't held back by the PS3. A more similar structure eases the developers work I'm assuming here but holding it back is a pretty strong assumption in itself
I dont think Microsoft will be able to do that again.
They are launching their "Pro" Xbox One in November. PS4 Pro launched 1 year before it. If anything, Sony is going to be the first one for some 6 months at least. Unless Microsoft wants to alienate their Xbox One X customers which will be quite pissed if they decide it to launch the next Xbox on, lets say, Fall 2019.
Unless they are really thinking about making Xbox One X a Forward Compatible console. Which would be stupid imo, but who knows.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Then I'm not sure what you thought you were replying to in the first place...
The original post from another poster I was replying to was about Sony adopting an iterative HW model where the Pro is mandated to be the minimum. spec. that developers target. I argued that in that situation the Pro would hold the PS5 back...
...then you sounded in saying it wouldn't but in a situation where the Pro isn't mandated to be the minimum spec.. I think it's you who's lost the thread of discussion.
You're not arguing against my point, but against something entirely tangental because I'm not arguing about the PS5 being held back in a situation where the PS4 Pro isn't mandated to be the minimum spec..
The reality is, I don't even think Sony or MS can mandate that devs target PS4 Pro or PS4 as a minimum hw spec.. The decision of which platforms to support lies with publishers, not Sony or MS.
In which case the entire premise of this line of discussion is moot.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Why do you need a co-processor for weather effects? Why not spend that portion of the silicon budget on more GPU ALU; keeping everything tightly integrated on a single processing unit (with its associated memory subsystem)?
Shin
Banned
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYEgitCAcys
I looked it up and they are indeed recruiting someone for some next-gen game for current and next-gen platforms.
One for the oppertunities: http://avalanchestudios.com/careers/7837/
So shit is in full swing behind the scenes, color me surprised?
I looked it up and they are indeed recruiting someone for some next-gen game for current and next-gen platforms.
One for the oppertunities: http://avalanchestudios.com/careers/7837/
So shit is in full swing behind the scenes, color me surprised?
Because it could be a specialized processor with it's own cache or whatever & just do the job more efficiently.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
I'm not sure if "full swing" is really accurate terminology, but sure, if developers are going to be expected to get games out on the new platform for launch day, then they need to at least have a ballpark idea of next-gen console launch dates 3+ yrs out.
At this stage, however, I'm unsure if devs have been fully briefed on the target specs. of the next-gen consoles yet. They may merely have a ballpark performance range.
I highly doubt they'll have devkits yet... more educated folks can correct me if I'm wrong here
(...that was my sneaky attempt to bait some info. out of Gaf's insiders).
(i) I'm not sure if computing weather effects would really benefit from dedicated fixed function processing units in silicon; as there isn't any set or fixed way of doing these effects, but rather multiple, which means devs are better off having less specialized, more general computing cores to do the heavy liftingmeaning GPU is likely more than up to the challenge.
(ii) Adding in specialized fixed function or general processing cores for off-loading tasks, makes sense when the workloads being offloaded are largely independent with limited data dependency across the rendering pipeline. For something like weather effects, by moving tasks like that off the GPU, you incur penalties that would make the overall rendering less efficient, as well as incurring additional cost and complexity in your APU design.
E.g. look at the problems the SHAPE audio unit and MOVE engines created with the OG XB1. All these additional processing blocks did was consume die-area which could have been dedicated to more GPU ALU and resulted in a console that would perform much closer to the PS4 at launch.
In a fixed size, console APU, die-area is your most precious commodity. Specialized cores need their own cache and memory takes up a significant amount of die-space that you really want to be devoting to maximizing the area taken up by your execution units.
Don't get stuck on whether PS4 was easy to adopt or not. The costs at that point were still disproportionately high - divergent code-bases and wildly incompatible hw targets (not unlike past gens really).TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
I agree with you that Pro(or PC) have little to no impact on future transitions - if PS5 doesn't introduce a paradigm shift ("x86" does not preclude one), you get another iterative cycle with a simplified cross-gen out of the gate. If a shift occurs, cross-gen will have new challenges again.
Negotiator
Member
Can you elaborate on that? What exactly happened with the CPU decision-making process?
Okami Haundo
Member
I definitely agree with this. I fully expect PS5 to be the start of a new "gen" and have exclusive first party games, but the normal third party offerings will be cross-gen for quite some time. I expect another PS2 situation where at the very least, we'll see third party sports games on PS4 for 2-3 years into the life of PS5.
You can have specialized processors for middleware like Enlighten for the lighting & you can have specialized processors for middleware like Havok/PhysX/HairFX that's the type of things that can be offloaded because you know they will be used in just about every game. by the way it wasn't Shape & the Move engines that took up the die space on Xbox One it was the ESRAM , PS4 also had DSPs for the sound like the SHAPE engine.
That's not a PS2 situation, that's an every platform situation. They still make PS3/360 versions of FIFA today.
Futurematic
Member
Hopefully Matt can tell us, but if not this is my best piecing together.
The rumour is that AMD offered Bulldozer or Jaguar, and that Sony did select Bulldozer (in 28nm version, a 3.2 GHz quad core Steamroller). Early development kits used Bulldozer/2 GB GDDR5 and perhaps Sony thought about a 2012 32nm Piledriver/4 GB GDDR5 launch but wound up selecting 28nm. However either AMD convinced Sony to switch to Jaguarperhaps overselling it, per rumbling of disappointment from first & third partiesor that Global Foundries wouldnt be out with 28nm Steamroller until early 2014 so Sony was forced into Jaguar over at TSMC to meet their launch date. Or a combination of both. All quite possibly nonsense, of course.
(Obviously Sony going with Jaguar was hugely beneficial for AMDs costs given the similarity to Xone.)
The Praiseworthy
Member
PS5 holidays 2020, there won't be PS5 Pro just a long generation of 7-8 years with one console and it's slim versions like the PS360.
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