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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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B

balladofwindfishes

Member
CNN's headline for the EO, was "President Trump signs order to lower costs and increase competition" and then it was watered down to "Trump signs executive order on healthcare" and now it's "Trump begins dismantling Obamacare"

In a span of like 5 minutes.
 
S

Snowman Prophet of Doom

Member
R

RDreamer

Member
@ddale8
Sorry, not Oval Office - Trump started walking out of the Roosevelt Room without signing his order; he was reminded to go back to his desk.
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Uh... how long until people realize this man’s brain is NOT all there.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Diablos said:
Rose McGowan got banned from Twitter for presumably talking about getting raped and calling out others for being phonies in how they went about supporting her lately, yet our shithead President can troll and incite the entire globe whenever he wants which could lead to war someday. Unbelievable.

Twitter needs to go imo
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Her account is back, apparently it was taken down temporarily because she posted someone's private phone number
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Watch Da Birdie said:
Sorry if this comes across as too much of a hot take, but I seriously think all the stuff with Hollywood is gonna bite Trump in the butt.

Like, right now it's kind of being used by some as a "liberal hypocrisy!" moment, but the net effect is putting sexual harassment in the spotlight. It started with Weinstein, but now Ben Affleck is in hot water. I hate thinking of this as a "gotcha moment!", but it seems there's going to be a snowball effect from here on out.

I don't see Trump staying quiet on this for long. He'll probably go with the "liberal hypocrisy!" take, but even if he sticks up for Hollywood it'll look bad either way. People are going to bring up his sexual assault allegations, and I think they're going to come back into focus. I don't think they'll do anything sadly, but I do think this will end up reminding everyone that, oh yeah, we probably voted a serial sexual harasser into the White House.
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It just shows a general disconnect with who most liberals are. Liberals aren't the ones falling over themselves to back up Hollywood's executives. OscarsSoWhite exists because liberals think Hollywood is full of crap about being liberal a lot of the time. Weinstein being a piece of shit only proves more liberals right.

cartoon_soldier said:
Mr. Dr.
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There's a biology professor here (or was, haven't talked to him in a while) who was Dr. Doctor.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
He definitely forgot to sign a bill at least once before and I think there was another time when he just suddenly wandered off the podium and left and Pence had to go and grab his stuff.
 
P

Parshias7

Member
Do you think senior Republicans in Congress are pulling these Tea Partiers aside and are like, "No, you don't understand, all that stuff about balancing the budget is just something we say when Democrats are in power. You're not supposed to actually believe any of it."
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
balladofwindfishes said:
Who even knows anymore with the GOP.
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Seriously, their margin in the Senate is quite slim, and things seem to be boiling over for many Senate members.

I think that disastrous Healthcare vote was the turning point, combined with Trump's recent additional instability and attacking his own cabinet members and other GOP members.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
Suikoguy said:
Seriously, their margin in the Senate is quite slim, and things seem to be boiling over for many Senate members.

I think that disastrous Healthcare vote was the turning point, combined with Trump's recent additional instability and attacking his own cabinet members and other GOP members.
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The Alabama Primary was the turning point. Senators held the line because they believed they needed his endorsement and feared what would happen if he endorsed a Primary challenger.

Now they know that his endorsement doesn't mean shit. It completely neutered Trump's ability to bully Congress.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
BlastProcessing said:
The Alabama Primary was the turning point. Senators held the line because they believed they needed his endorsement and feared what would happen if he endorsed a Primary challenger.

Now they know that his endorsement doesn't mean shit. It completely neutered Trump's ability to bully Congress.
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Oh yeah, forgot about that.
It's basically boiled over, I don't see them getting anything significant done.

edit:

Oh, and it's a self feeding cycle too.
Trump can't take any criticism, and will just lash out, perpetuating the situation further.
 
H

Hopfrog

Member
It is quite possible that the Corker thing will end up being a major turning point. There were Republicans dancing around the issue of Trump's basic fitness for office for a while but no one had come out quite as explicitly as Corker in sounding these kinds of alarms. It would not surprise me if there were more like him in the next few months, especially if tax reform continues to go as swimmingly as it has the last couple of weeks.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Just want to point out with this new House polling, look at the two Iowa districts.

Trump won IA-1 and IA-3 by 4 points each. His approval is -5 in IA-1 and -10 in IA-3. Paul Ryan is -35 in IA-1 and -41 in IA-3.

Iowa went hard right in 2016 - 6 point Obama win to a 9 point Trump win - but everything I’ve seen suggests it’s quite susceptible to snapping back next year and possibly even 2020. Swing voters gave Trump a chance and now realize he’s a fraud. Yes, there will always be a rock hard base of core Trump support but if we can get a decently likable 2020 candidate who can actually talk to rural voters it’s still within reach. More importantly (since Iowa is so small), maybe bodes well for Ohio too as the states are somewhat similar politically.

Parshias7 said:
Do you think senior Republicans in Congress are pulling these Tea Partiers aside and are like, "No, you don't understand, all that stuff about balancing the budget is just something we say when Democrats are in power. You're not supposed to actually believe any of it."
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Problem is Paul Ryan is a true believer who had enough credibility with the establishment that they were ok with him being Speaker. So while I’m absolutely positive McConnell does not give two flying fucks about the deficit, the leader of the other half of the government does.

‘bama Senate

https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/918505744848351232

49-41 Moore
 
I

Ithil

Member
BlastProcessing said:
The Alabama Primary was the turning point. Senators held the line because they believed they needed his endorsement and feared what would happen if he endorsed a Primary challenger.

Now they know that his endorsement doesn't mean shit. It completely neutered Trump's ability to bully Congress.
Click to expand...

This is only going to grow stronger over time. By the primaries next year you're probably gonna see quite a few Senators critical of Trump and not fearing the loss of his endorsement.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Northam’s been ramping up the ad campaign it seems

https://mobile.twitter.com/RalphNortham/status/918478041189376002

https://mobile.twitter.com/RalphNortham/status/918242246327185408
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Also looks like Northam + allies is outspending Gillespie + allies in NoVA and Richmond, at parity in Hampton Roads, and getting outspent in Roanoke (though that's mostly because of R outside groups who don't get as much bang for their $ as a campaign does).

Aaron Strife said:
Problem is Paul Ryan is a true believer who had enough credibility with the establishment that they were ok with him being Speaker. So while I’m absolutely positive McConnell does not give two flying fucks about the deficit, the leader of the other half of the government does.

‘bama Senate

https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/918505744848351232

49-41 Moore
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Close enough to be annoying and not nearly enough to win.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Paul Ryan is -35 in IA-1 and -41 in IA-3.
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I don't think this matters much since I also don't think Pelosi's numbers really matter. People always hate Speakers but may still vote for their party in that district.

The rest looks great though. What does a maximized Dem Senate look like if we do as well as possible in 2018 and 2020? State control after 2020?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
AntraxSuicide said:
I don't think this matters much since I also don't think Pelosi's numbers really matter. People always hate Speakers but may still vote for their party in that district.
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I’d think it’s more about turnout than anything. If I were a betting man I’d say a lot of the Democrats who didn’t turn up in 2010 or 2014 felt fine about Obama but didn’t care for Pelosi.

There’s no loyalty to Ryan, only Trump. And if Trump’s not on the ballot, who cares?

The rest looks great though. What does a maximized Dem Senate look like if we do as well as possible in 2018 and 2020? State control after 2020?
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If I’m being realistic?

2018 - NV, AZ
2020 - CO, ME, NC, GA, MT, AK, IA

Even including those last four may be too optimistic, but I think they’ll all be some degree of competitive. Either way I could see next PresiDem coming in with a 55-seat majority in 2020 if we don’t lose any incumbent races (tough ask in 2018, pretty easy in 2020). Likewise, I don’t think even a bad 2022 midterm would put much of a dent in such a majority - Cortez-Masto is our only vulnerable incumbent, and she might be sufficiently entrenched by then.

If I’m going kookoo bananas with optimism, maybe add KY, LA to 2020 and TX or TN to 2018.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
AntraxSuicide said:
I don't think this matters much since I also don't think Pelosi's numbers really matter. People always hate Speakers but may still vote for their party in that district.

The rest looks great though. What does a maximized Dem Senate look like if we do as well as possible in 2018 and 2020? State control after 2020?
Click to expand...

As well as reasonably possible? 2018 you retain all the seats up for grabs and take both Arizona seats (assuming McCain is forced out before then), Heller in Nevada, Cruz in Texas (yes), and now Corker in Tennessee, and Dems are up 53-47.

Then in 2020 you take Collins' old seat in Maine that she vacated, possibly get rid of Daines in Montana, Ernst in Iowa, Gardner in Colorado, Tillis in North Carolina, i think one of the Georgia seats is up for grabs?, then you're up 59-41.

Now that's over-optimistic, but you could see Dems get to 55 seats by 2020, for certain.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
whyamihere said:
Sorry for the double post but lots of new polls from PPP for house races. I'm on mobile and about to get in my car but these look good.

https://www.patriotmajority.org/news-center

Trump underwater in IA-1, IA-3, and ME-2 is really surprising.
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Posted these earlier.

Ryan’s numbers suck. Like, suuuuck. Interested to see if he’s made a focal point of Dem attack ads from here on - would be nice to flip the script.

The purplish rural areas that swung hard to Trump are the ones where he’ll experience the biggest backlash imo. These are people who wanted change, and well, they certainly got it. But if the overwhelming sentiment is that Obama was a decent president who did some good things, but not enough, you’d want Trump to do more, not try and dismantle what he did accomplish and failing that, nothing at all.

It would be such an easy political victory to try and improve ACA for example, good thing the GOP is way too stubborn to go for it. Or public works funding in rural areas, expanded internet access, road improvements, facility renovations etc. But nope.

On the flip side this far out Issa and Comstock look like the only doomed incumbents, but we have time on our side.
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
Damn, if the Sanders side of the WH briefing was over in the amount of time I could take a shower she must have been in a hurry to book it. I'll assume she said something horrible about PR. And now they sent Kelly out to die in front of the cameras and I'm sure to lick some serious boot.
Greigor The Fellhand said:
Kelly im not quitting.

THis is the most important job and most difficult job I have ever had.
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Worth noting that this is still 100% consistent with the reports of administration officials thinking Trump is always on the verge of going off the rails and are sticking around to prevent WWIII.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Posted these earlier.

Ryan’s numbers suck. Like, suuuuck. Interested to see if he’s made a focal point of Dem attack ads from here on - would be nice to flip the script.

The purplish rural areas that swung hard to Trump are the ones where he’ll experience the biggest backlash imo. These are people who wanted change, and well, they certainly got it. But if the overwhelming sentiment is that Obama was a decent president who did some good things, but not enough, you’d want Trump to do more, not try and dismantle what he did accomplish and failing that, nothing at all.

It would be such an easy political victory to try and improve ACA for example, good thing the GOP is way too stubborn to go for it. Or public works funding in rural areas, expanded internet access, road improvements, facility renovations etc. But nope.

On the flip side this far out Issa and Comstock look like the only doomed incumbents, but we have time on our side.
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Oops, I see that.

I remember reading a while back that the biggest thing that Trump was holding on to were these Surge Counties -- counties that voted for Romney by maybe 55/45 or 60/40, but surged to vote for Trump by like 70/25. The Scrantons of the world were going back to their normal voting habits, but it was these other places were Trump was still as strong as he was on e-Day. I'll try to find the article.
 
S

studyguy

Member
Kelly is walking back Trump's threat on PR.
What the fuck is the point of his twitter again if everything he says is just immediately denied.
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
Headline: "Chief of Staff sent to die live on national TV"

...Yeah I don't like him anymore. He repeated the media attack bullshit to the media's faces.
 
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