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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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Ether_Snake

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Just watched the coverage of the Whirlpool events on the TV news, seems like Macron pulled it off. Well done Manu.
Certainly makes a difference that Le Pen only stayed for 10 minutes at the factory when Macron discussed with the crowd for one hour and a half.

He needs to make sure people don't get the impression LePen is beating him on this, hopefully he and is team find a way to communicate clearly and non stop on favoring workers/middle class and not neoliberal policies, but i think his advisors are probably trying to figure out if they need to go after the Fillon or Melanchon voters.
 

GreyWind

Member
Rpupx0U.png


Fuck this guy
 

Mimosa97

Member
Did they properly air it on major channels?

I hate LePen with a passion but she's a fucking good campaigner.

She had a very mediocre campaign. Some could even call it a failure. She kept losing ground in the polls week after week and she was low energy during the debates.

Now it feels like she's finally woken up.
 

LordKano

Member
You know you had a bad campaign when you were announced to be the big winner with a 30% 1st round score, crushing the opposition and then you're only second with 21%, losing to a minister of the most unpopular French president. And you let a 1% candidate destroying you in a debate and cause you a bad buzz.
 

Ac30

Member
She had a very mediocre campaign. Some could even call it a failure. She kept losing ground in the polls week after week and she was low energy during the debates.

Now it feels like she's finally woken up.

Pls no

I meant more in terms of playing the image game, what with her performance today. Her verbal gaffes were stupid (and I hope she continues!)

You know you had a bad campaign when you were announced to be the big winner with a 30% 1st round score, crushing the opposition and then you're only second with 21%, losing to a minister of the most unpopular French president. And you let a 1% candidate destroying you in a debate and cause you a bad buzz.

Let's hope it stays that way.

Also I don't think Donaldo intruding is going to help LePen lol
 
Her father might even say something to make it worse. He did say he'll do everything to get her in just after the first round.

I really doubt MLP can make herself palatable in the next two weeks. It's something she should've done ten years ago.
 
Donal Trump (Jr.), retweeting Farage, talking about Le Pen...

My god I hope Macron pulls this off.

Farage needs to disappear, but in an age of social media and with every media outlet willing to give him a platform to spew his bullshit, that won't be happening any time soon.

I'm so glad it looks like Le Pen won't win, I have everything crossed for you FranceGAF.
 

Mimosa97

Member
Donal Trump (Jr.), retweeting Farage, talking about Le Pen...

My god I hope Macron pulls this off.

Trump Junior doesn't understand how anti-american Le Pen is. I swear these idiots are too dense to realize how disastrous a Le Pen win would be for the US.
 

avaya

Member
I don't want to curse this but I saw Macron's campaign being formed. I was even lucky enough to be there for some of the first meetings when he was scoping out support. In person the guy is amazingly personable and very affable. Doesn't fully come across when he's speaking. Feels a bit surreal knowing someone you've met and worked with professionally is on the verge of being President.
 

mo60

Member
Any of the trump's supporting le pen will hurt her campaign. The trump family shouldn't be commenting much on the french presidential election.
 

Simplet

Member
The turn this thread is talking is making me want to reiterate that I'm pretty excited to vote for Macron in less than two weeks. I haven't had the chance in my life so far to vote for a pragmatic guy like that who seems both level-headed and open to challenging is own conceptions. It doesn't hurt that I support the vast majority of his policies too.

This is simply embarrassing. Please go sit in the corner and think about what lead you to drop such a turgid hot take.

I think what led him to this conclusion was Mélenchon's speech on Sunday, realistically I'm not sure what more he could have said if his purpose had been to help Le Pen as much as possible, and apparently other people seem to think the same : https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/25/world/europe/france-melenchon-macron-le-pen.html

I'm really tired of people on the far left and their bubbles where Emmanuel fucking Macron, who's entire life seems dedicated to be as inoffensive to anyone as possible, is the fourth horseman of the apocalypse.

It's like every single politician that gets elected is this massive catastrophy that's going to destroy the lives of million. Newsflash: the far left has literally never won an election during the 5th republic (the only thing coming even remotely close is the first time Mitterrand got elected), and France still has one of the most thorough system of worker protection in the world. Another newsflash: the reason why people like Mélenchon aren't elected is because there is simply not enough people who believe his promises or like his proposals, it's not a conspiracy, and getting Le pen elected won't change that.
 

Ac30

Member
I don't want to curse this but I saw Macron's campaign being formed. I was even lucky enough to be there for some of the first meetings when he was scoping out support. In person the guy is amazingly personable and very affable. Doesn't fully come across when he's speaking. Feels a bit surreal knowing someone you've met and worked with professionally is on the verge of being President.

I'm hoping they ship him out more to te people then, I'm sorta shocked he never got a speech coach because he's rather bad at giving speeches.
 

avaya

Member
I'm hoping they ship him out more to te people then, I'm sorta shocked he never got a speech coach because he's rather bad at giving speeches.

He's more comfortable speaking about economics and regulation to be honest. He is a total novice when it comes to politics. He is not a political scientist or lawyer. His job was to form relationships, sell ideas and create consensus amongst investors and corporates, not give speeches.

He will get better. However what he is in reality is incredibly pragmatic. I have met some absolute bastards in my career, he is certainly nothing like any of them (if he is he is an incredible actor). Genuinely good guy. Very moderate. No secret right-wing agent in disguise.
 

Magni

Member
Regarding the Trump-Le Pen relationship and how Le Pen will not be good for the US, there was a good article in the NYT recently. On mobile so no link, sorry.

I don't want to curse this but I saw Macron's campaign being formed. I was even lucky enough to be there for some of the first meetings when he was scoping out support. In person the guy is amazingly personable and very affable. Doesn't fully come across when he's speaking. Feels a bit surreal knowing someone you've met and worked with professionally is on the verge of being President.

That's really cool! In what way did you work with him, if you don't mind sharing?
 

avaya

Member
Regarding the Trump-Le Pen relationship and how Le Pen will not be good for the US, there was a good article in the NYT recently. On mobile so no link, sorry.



That's really cool! In what way did you work with him, if you don't mind sharing?

We were invested a few deals Rothschild were advising on and we also had quite a few meetings with him when he was economic advisor and the government was contemplating scenarios in a possible Orange/Bouygues merger. He killed the deal btw, very adamant that the state had to have primary voting power in the new entity.

Anyway. I know he isn't that popular but he represents, I hope a silent majority. That doesn't mean to say those on the left or right are necessarily wrong. I just hope the best for France, need you guys to step it up in the EU and re-form the FRA-GER dream team. Without the UK playing rasputin. I feel positive about Europe. World needs the EU to work.
 
If her national numbers go down a bit she may lose that region. She's barely going to win it at this point if that poll is correct.

Yeah, he's winning Hauts-de-France 56/44 and Grand Est 55/45. Those are (obviously) her next best regions, but she's losing them as of now.
 

Magni

Member
We were invested a few deals Rothschild were advising on and we also had quite a few meetings with him when he was economic advisor and the government was contemplating scenarios in a possible Orange/Bouygues merger. He killed the deal btw, very adamant that the state had to have primary voting power in the new entity.

Anyway. I know he isn't that popular but he represents, I hope a silent majority. That doesn't mean to say those on the left or right are necessarily wrong. I just hope the best for France, need you guys to step it up in the EU and re-form the FRA-GER dream team. Without the UK playing rasputin. I feel positive about Europe. World needs the EU to work.

Very nice. I obviously don't know him as you do, but I've certainly gotten a very good vibe from him and am hopeful, certainly more than in 2012 or 2007. I'm not too optimistic, since I don't believe one man can change everything (just look at Obama in the US), but certainly that he can be an impulse in the right direction.
For those who haven't seen it, here's an interview from seven years ago when he was at Rothschild (April 2010): http://www.sciences-po.asso.fr/docs/2012125712_emacron.pdf
 

saturnine

Member
I think what led him to this conclusion was Mélenchon's speech on Sunday, realistically I'm not sure what more he could have said if his purpose had been to help Le Pen as much as possible, and apparently other people seem to think the same : https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/25/world/europe/france-melenchon-macron-le-pen.html
Voicing an opinion on Mélenchon's speech is all nice and good, as long as it's done in a somewhat constructive and thoughtful manner.

Inferring that he's stealth supporting MLP is none of those things. It's stupidity on par with the "both siders" plenty of people in this thread are criticizing, including you as of your post.
 

Kilrogg

paid requisite penance
Very nice. I obviously don't know him as you do, but I've certainly gotten a very good vibe from him and am hopeful, certainly more than in 2012 or 2007. I'm not too optimistic, since I don't believe one man can change everything (just look at Obama in the US), but certainly that he can be an impulse in the right direction.
For those who haven't seen it, here's an interview from seven years ago when he was at Rothschild (April 2010): http://www.sciences-po.asso.fr/docs/2012125712_emacron.pdf

Take that however you will, but I read the beginning of the interview, where he says he was a student of Paul Ricoeur and took part in the writing of Ricoeur's La Mémoire, l'histoire et l'oubli, a book which a historian friend of mine just told me about today. When I told him that, he said "Well, then he's either forgotten everything about that book, or he understood it wrong."

Can't comment much since I haven't read Ricoeur's work, but I found it funny/worrying nonetheless.

[EDIT]
I will never get used to these stupid ass names.

Fuck everyone who played a part in it.

Grand Est actually makes a ton of sense and is the most logical of the "grandes régions" names. It's just a geographical name. No frills, just "the bigger East". Saying that as someone who was born and raised there. When one of the alternatives was "La Nouvelle Austrasie", we definitely dodged a bullet there.

Hauts-de-Seine sucks though, I agree. Doesn't make sense and sounds self-aggrandizing.
 

Ac30

Member
He's more comfortable speaking about economics and regulation to be honest. He is a total novice when it comes to politics. He is not a political scientist or lawyer. His job was to form relationships, sell ideas and create consensus amongst investors and corporates, not give speeches.

He will get better. However what he is in reality is incredibly pragmatic. I have met some absolute bastards in my career, he is certainly nothing like any of them (if he is he is an incredible actor). Genuinely good guy. Very moderate. No secret right-wing agent in disguise.

This is good to hear, but this is also why he needs to be in the regions that are suffering the most, and works his relationship magic. I hope he pulls it off.

As for that Whirlpool thing, is anyone ripping into Marine for apparently showing up for a few minutes for a photo shoot, or is it working out in her favour?
 

Alx

Member
Oh my, just saw snippets of Macron on stage during his Arras meeting. So bad, so different from the image he gives in discussions/negotiations.
He definitely needs some coaching for public speech. Maybe take a few theatre/singing lessons. Stop shouting, you don't have the voice nor the energy for it.

In a way it's just asking him to be better at fake stuff, but... well it's probably important in politics.
 

Kilrogg

paid requisite penance
Man, it was the best one of the bunch. Grand Est sounds like a shopping center.

lmao

My thought exactly

People thought the other choices (including "Nouvelle Austrasie") were so bad they petitioned for "Grand Est" to be added among possible candidates. As soon as it was added, it handily won.

Does that, in itself, mean it's a good name? No, but at least it was chosen. And I stand by the notion that descriptive names are better for administrative regions. There's no point trying to give it some kind of brand identity (à la Hauts de Seine) or a historical edge (à la Nouvelle Austrasie). One makes it sound commercial, like a brand name. The other makes it sound old and dusty. "Austrasie" sounds so old, especially - paradoxically - if you add "Nouvelle" before it.

But what the heck do I know, naming is only my job.
 
LePen is really doing a good campaign, she's relentless.

And the silence of Melenchon is deafening. I am disappointed in him. She is trying to catch the people that voted for him and he lets her do.

Sigh...
 

Kilrogg

paid requisite penance
LePen is really doing a good campaign, she's relentless.

And the silence of Melenchon is deafening. I am disappointed in him. She is trying to catch the people that voted for him and he lets her do.

Sigh...

If it's anything like Jospin in 2002, he probably needs some time to digest the whole thing and think about how he's going to put it. As said in the video above, he probably can't just say "vote Macron" outright because it would feel like a betrayal among FI members. Not to mention it's never easy to endorse someone when your ideals are so far removed from theirs. Most likely he'll try to find some way to hint at a Macron vote, or say "do whatever you want, but remember..." or something.

At least I hope he won't just stay silent throughout or advocate abstaining/voting blanc. Now that would be infuriating.
 

Koren

Member
And the silence of Melenchon is deafening. I am disappointed in him. She is trying to catch the people that voted for him and he lets her do.

Melenchon seems to be stealth supporting le pen too
Well, I don't think that's true... At best, he's ambivalous on the matter, but he has always been a strong LePen opposition. The problem is, they want to keep their momentum for the following elections in june.

Even if it may be the moral thing to do, it's pretty much useless: among their voters, people that prefer Macron will say "it's sad he doesn't say clearly that we should vote for Macron", but they'll still support Macron.

People that they took from LePen won't vote for Macron because Mélenchon clearly rallies Macron. But they may loose them back to FN.

In short, an official support for Macron will probably do nothing for next week, but will probably have the consequences of MORE vote for FN (instead of Front de Gauche) in june's elections. Tha'ts both backfiring AND putting them in a worse shape in june.


See how it killed Bayrou in 2012 for expressing his mind clearly... I doubt he changed the mind of more than a handful of its voters, and he sure angered a LOT more of them, and lost their support basically forever.

Oh my, just saw snippets of Macron on stage during his Arras meeting. So bad, so different from the image he gives in discussions/negotiations.
He definitely needs some coaching for public speech. Maybe take a few theatre/singing lessons. Stop shouting, you don't have the voice nor the energy for it.

In a way it's just asking him to be better at fake stuff, but... well it's probably important in politics.
Shouting is a detail, but I don't have a doubt that he's not fit for presidency. He's mostly lucky that overall the others three promoted worse ideas or had worse ethics...

Trump Junior doesn't understand how anti-american Le Pen is. I swear these idiots are too dense to realize how disastrous a Le Pen win would be for the US.
Well, they may value the destruction of France and probably EU more than anything...

At the very least, they have some clue about what she would do...

I've looked into Macron's program, and there's basically NOTHING about foreign policies, except for Israël/Palestinia, Turkey/EU and Iran. Seeing how he's dealing with difficult questions, one expects a "nothing change / let's see how the wind is blowing", but who actually knows... I'm not even sure HE knows.

Like market, I don't think that foreign countries like big unknowns and speculations.


And Farage... well, that's Farage, and he has all the reasons wanting the EU to implode, and quickly. Noone will think there's ANYTHING related to what would be best for french people in his position. It's all about home turf.
 

Alx

Member
. As said in the video above, he probably can't just say "vote Macron" outright because it would feel like a betrayal among FI members .

So many voters and FI members in particular are such drama queens. How hard is it to accept "it's either A or B and I think A is preferable", it's not a betrayal of any value, just making a responsible choice.
 
If it's anything like Jospin in 2002, he probably needs some time to digest the whole thing and think about how he's going to put it. As said in the video above, he probably can't just say "vote Macron" outright because it would feel like a betrayal among FI members. Not to mention it's never easy to endorse someone when your ideals are so far removed from theirs. Most likely he'll try to find some way to hint at a Macron vote, or say "do whatever you want, but remember..." or something.

At least I hope he won't just stay silent throughout or advocate abstaining/voting blanc. Now that would be infuriating.

Of course. i know that, I'm about to vote Macron...

He just can't stay silent. So far, he acts like a bad loser. He should just give his personal stance, no use for a vote advice, people are grown ups.

My wife does not want Lepen. But she also doesn't want to vote Macron because she disagree with his program. She just wants people to make the dirty job for her. I disagree with that, and I will, against my own convictions, vote Macron cause LePen is a far more dangerous threat than him.

Now legislatives will be another matter. I will probably go fishing.
 

Koren

Member
If it's anything like Jospin in 2002, he probably needs some time to digest the whole thing and think about how he's going to put it.
I don't think he needs time, it's definitively a completely deliberate situation now, and it may be the best course the have.

Most likely he'll try to find some way to hint at a Macron vote, or say "do whatever you want, but remember..." or something.
He did. His porte-parole said a lot yesterday "not a vote for LePen".

Their poll for their supporters had three options "Macron", "neither", and "no vote".

You won't have more, it would be political suicide.

At least I hope he won't just stay silent throughout or advocate abstaining/voting blanc. Now that would be infuriating.
You'll be disappointed. He'll stay silent, I can take the bet.

He want some success in the june elections.
 

Alx

Member
.


Shouting is a detail, but I don't have a doubt that he's not fit for presidency. He's mostly lucky that overall the others three promoted worse ideas or had worse ethics...

I'm warming up to him and am becoming more confident actually. He's obviously very green, maybe even naive, and definitely got lucky, but you don't get to his successive positions through luck alone.
He must be a very good negotiator (professionaly and politically), as his ability to turn an angry crowd at Whirlpool could suggest.
It's like the anti Trump as far as negotiating is concerned : no show but some substance.
 

Koren

Member
So many voters and FI members in particular are such drama queens. How hard is it to accept "it's either A or B and I think A is preferable", it's not a betrayal of any value, just making a responsible choice.
The problem is... you'll lose your supporters that think B is preferable, and FI is built on mud.

Doing it would be throwing any chance to have a strong group at the Assemblée Nationale.
 

Sinsem

Member
They announced a "Revue de la semaine" for tomorrow (I thought it was going to be today but it seems that's not the case).
Again, expect "Everything but the FN".
Any voting instruction will piss off his base, he knows it.

EDIT : I'd be mad honestly, and that's the consensus for all of my leftist friends.
 
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