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Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|

LOL.

i thought lee was still a thing. carry on.

I'm back, bitches!

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Vestal

Gold Member
^^^^^

Now that the reality of Jose has set into the models they are shifting since the weakness to the north won't be as prevalent.
 

Chumly

Member
Currently 2017 is 10th for accumulated cyclone energy. At this point it's pretty much guaranteed to be in the top 5 as Maria continues. I wouldn't be surprised if it go right past 2005. I don't think we will beat the number of named storms from 2005 but I think there is a high probability of setting a record ACE season.

Long track Cape Verde hurricanes (Irma, Jose, Maria have helped this)
 

Mindlog

Member
Bits from the 11AM on Maria.
The updated forecast is between the GFS and ECMWF solutions and close to the consensus aids and HCCA through day 3. After that time, the new forecast is slower and southwest of the consensus aids, but still not quite as far west as the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET solutions.
Based on various analyses, the southwesterly shear over Maria has decreased since yesterday, and it appears to remain relatively low for the next 2 days or so. Maria will be moving over very warm waters during that time, although the depth of the warm pool does decrease, and Maria's slower motion could increase the effects of colder upwelled water. After 48 hours, vertical shear is forecast to increase again, and a critical part of the intensity forecast will be whether or not Maria moves over the cold wake left behind by Jose. The recent westward shifts in the forecast track make it more likely that Maria would avoid the cold wake and move over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Since the environment may not be as hostile as the dynamical models are assuming, the NHC intensity forecast is a little above the intensity consensus for much of the forecast period.
Still a lot of variability in the forecast, but several models keep pushing it west towards landfall. Just keep an eye out.
 

GodofWine

Member
00z gfs looks like it has a hurricane sitting on top of OBX for 24 hours. 78 to 102 hour forecast it is basically sitting still right there.
 

Kusagari

Member
Lee is forecasted to become a hurricane in the next 48-72 hours.

Will retroactively make 8 straight hurricanes, which I think is a record.
 

Kusagari

Member
Lee has officially become a Category 1. NHC also gives him a good chance to become a Cat 3+ major.

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He's also one of the smallest on record. Hurricane force winds only extend 10 miles from the eye, and tropical storm force winds only extend 35.
 
So Maria has the (dis)honor of being the first Hurricane since Andrew to do this: The complete and utter destruction of a NWS radar site. Those stations are supposed to handle up to sustained 145 MPH and that version of weather radar hardware they don't have many left in reserve, which means it could be months or years for this station to become operational again. This is San Juan's NWS site for those wondering.

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DKhjmLAUIAAYt50.jpg
 

Jedi2016

Member
Yeah, I remember when Andrew did that kind of shit. I remember another one where one of their high-end wind meters got blown clean off the roof. Which was, up until then, considered nigh impossible.
 

mo60

Member
At least one good thing about lee is that it's the first lee to become a hurricane and last more then a few days.
 

Sulik2

Member
Woohoo go east Maria we don't need another major rain dump in South Carolina. Half the state is already new swamp land from the last couple of years.
 
Maria is looking very unhealthy for a storm on satellite, most likely due to upwelling of colder water from Jose's passage. It may become a tropical storm sooner then later.
 

Mindlog

Member
It's still very hard to communicate with much of the island.

Happy to see Jose did some good. Just wish it had avoided Barbuda as well.
 
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