Support NeoGAF

Toadthemushroom · Nov 13, 2017

As analysed by Ars Technica. Nintendo is planning to manufacture between 25 and 30 million Switches in the next fiscal year, figures which arrive from people with "direct knowledge of the matter" speaking to the WSJ.

This is a huge bump from the 13m produced for this financial year which ends on March 31 2018. By then the Switch should have shipped 17m units LTD.

As Kyle from Ars notes, this is most certainly a big gamble for Nintendo if the figures turn out to be true. If the company overestimates demand it might have to write-down unsold stock lying around in warehouses.

I would certainly expect growth in Switch sales going from this current financial year, but is a 100% increase in units sold a realistic expectation for Nintendo to have? I wonder what Nintendo is thinking here?

Maybe:

-Nintendo is making a big effort into expanding into more territories (e.g. non-Japan Asia) and expects Switch to do well there
-Nintendo expects big 2018 games like Pokémon, and those only Nintendo knows of, to grow the install base
-Nintendo knows of big games emerging from key third parties that would shift hardware
-Switch 2 coming in 2018 to be sold alongside Switch
-Nintendo previously noted that they'd like to get households to own more than one Switch. Its hybrid nature enables this. Combined Wii and DS sales reached 250m units in generation 7, so perhaps Nintendo is predicting that Switch will draw from what were previously two separate markets.

What do you think?

manw20 · Nov 13, 2017

Personally I'm looking forward to seeing the inevitable revisions, like we have seen with all previous handheld generations. I would however not expect Nintendo to come with a Switch 2, implying a new machine with games that wouldn't work no Switch 1. Slimmer, better battery but ultimately the same performance? Sure.

And please, fix that awful stand.

Toadthemushroom · Nov 13, 2017

Yeah, when I listed Switch 2 I really meant a new hardware iteration. Nintendo should do this (Tegra X2, improved kickstand etc) and make the launch day Switch the entry level model sold for $50 less.

I agree that the Switch 2 name would imply an entirely new system...by traditional video game console standards. But I doubt it'd be confusing in a world where we quickly got to the iPad 4 by 2012, two-and-a-half years after iPad 1's launch, and we're somehow at the Samsung Galaxy S8.

I guess it depends on whether the new model replaces the old one entirely. They could just call it Switch and the original launch model Switch (first generation).

celsowmbr · Nov 13, 2017

I don't believe in a "more-gpu-and-memory" Switch version so soon.

IMO they will release first a "elite" model with 64gb or more of internal storage next year.

Maybe in 2019 they will release a revision with some new features related to screen, dock and even design but none about more tefaflops yet.

In 2020 I would bet a "New Nintendo Switch" with some exclusive for it like Game Boy Color had, DSi and NN3DS"

In 2022 or 2023 they probably will release Nintendo Switch 2

primasaurus · Nov 13, 2017

At those numbers Switch surpases the Wii, damn that's impressive

Toadthemushroom · Nov 13, 2017

celsowmbr said:
I don't believe in a "more-gpu-and-memory" Switch version so soon.

IMO they will release first a "elite" model with 64gb or more of internal storage next year.

Maybe in 2019 they will release a revision with some new features related to screen, dock and even design but none about more tefaflops yet.

In 2020 I would bet a "New Nintendo Switch" with some exclusive for it like Game Boy Color had, DSi and NN3DS"

In 2022 or 2023 they probably will release Nintendo Switch 2

Iwata did have this to say in 2014:

To cite a specific case, Apple is able to release smart devices with various form factors one after another because there is one way of programming adopted by all platforms. Apple has a common platform called iOS. Another example is Android. Though there are various models, Android does not face software shortages because there is one common way of programming on the Android platform that works with various models. The point is, Nintendo platforms should be like those two examples.

Considering it's Nvidia that's providing the hardware, and some of the graphics libraries in the Nintendo SDK, I'm certain that Switch, and its OS, is designed to work well with forwards compatibility and Nintendo adopting mobile hardware will allow them to release more powerful systems without making the base model redundant.

iswasdoes · Nov 13, 2017

Don't see a hardware revision coming for at lest 2-3 years

I think the expanding markets is a good theory. Their partnership with tencent apparantly means theyve got a better chance of cracking the chinese market

http://www.rollingstone.com/glixel/news/nintendo-eyes-china-with-tencent-partnership-wsj-w504209

llien · Nov 13, 2017

It is in stock for many weeks in Germany. (just checked that it is temporarily out of stock in US, but back in stock in 2 days)

I wonder, what essentially doubling the production of it is based on?

MegaMelon · Nov 13, 2017

I can only really think of Pokemon as being the reason behind this. Not much else is as much as a titan and Zelda and Mario were released this year.

Naked Snake · Nov 13, 2017

What are the chances of Switch ending up being Nintendo's best selling hardware of all time? I'd bet

$10

on it.

DogDude · Nov 13, 2017

Naked Snake said:
What are the chances of Switch ending up being Nintendo's best selling hardware of all time? I'd bet

$10

on it.

Over the DS? I'll bet you every dollar I have it wont

Naked Snake · Nov 13, 2017

DogDude said:
Over the DS? I'll bet you every dollar I have it wont

Isn't 30 million a year DS numbers?

R00bot · Nov 13, 2017

Naked Snake said:
Isn't 30 million a year DS numbers?

30 million a year is DS numbers, but the DS did those numbers for many years consecutively.

LordRaptor · Nov 13, 2017

llien said:
It is in stock for many weeks in Germany. (just checked that it is temporarily out of stock in US, but back in stock in 2 days)

I wonder, what essentially doubling the production of it is based on?

European numbers are harder to source but its been outselling the PS4 since launch in both Japan and the US

Naked Snake · Nov 13, 2017

R00bot said:
30 million a year is DS numbers, but the DS did those numbers for many years consecutively.

And why do people think it's virtually impossible for the Switch to do the same, as strongly as willing to bet all their money on it?

Rhetorical Question · Nov 13, 2017

Naked Snake said:
And why do people think it's virtually impossible for the Switch to do the same, as strongly as willing to bet all their money on it?

Different times. There were way less entertainment options back in time. No smartphones, no mobile internet, facebook and twitter wasn't such a big deal back then. Things have changed since then, and I see no chance for the Switch to top that numbers from back then.

Thunder_God_Bane · Nov 13, 2017

I look forward to the Switch pro.

OLED screen HDR support.
Slimmer bezels maybe.

Everything else can remain the same

rokkerkory · Nov 13, 2017

Amazing job ninty! Keep it up.

Switch lite in 2 years would be dope too.

McGruber21 · Nov 13, 2017

Someone explain to me how this is a gamble when the Switch will only be in it's 2nd year? Even if they sell only half of their target, won't the rest just be sold in the year following? Why would the Switch be marked down in that timeframe?

michaelius · Nov 13, 2017

If they drop the price it sounds possible.

Toadthemushroom · Nov 13, 2017

Rhetorical Question said:
Different times. There were way less entertainment options back in time. No smartphones, no mobile internet, facebook and twitter wasn't such a big deal back then. Things have changed since then, and I see no chance for the Switch to top that numbers from back then.

Yup. I can't see Nintendo shifting 250m units across a 5-7 year period again. Switch may well do Wii numbers over the same period of time but it's not going to reach as much of the same markets that Wii and DS launched in over the same period of time.

Which is why I suspect Nintendo's estimates for Switch's second year may well centre around new markets.

RaptorGTA · Nov 13, 2017

I can't imagine Pokemon being ready but who knows. Maybe a new Animal Crossing for the Switch will be out. Something that will complement the mobile game could be huge.

I guess another possibilities could be a big push into China.

Rndom Grenadez · Nov 13, 2017

If they drop 3DS, all main line Pokemon games come to Switch, develop an Animal Crossing game that ties into the mobile in some significant way and Fire Emblem continues to blow up next year, I can see them getting to 100 million eventually.

I dont think theyll top PS2, Wii or DS, but they have an outside chance to make it past 360 and PS3.

Toadthemushroom · Nov 13, 2017

It is worth noting that some of the bigger third party games will finally be ready by 2018, many of which were only announced in name only. I can see them pushing hardware sales in some regions, for example Namco's upcoming Tales game which may or may not be exclusive.

dcx4610 · Nov 13, 2017

I see the Switch well stocked at every store I go to now. Maybe they are selling but it seems like everyone has at least 10 in stock after initial drought after launch. Hope they dont overestimate the demand.

RootCause · Nov 13, 2017

Thunder_God_Bane said:
I look forward to the Switch pro.

OLED screen HDR support.
Slimmer bezels maybe.

Everything else can remain the same

Instead of Oled, and HDR. I'd take a Switch with gsync built in. And a bump in cpu. :3

Unknown? · Nov 13, 2017

Xbox is in for a world of hurt. Not only is Sony bringing its A game, Nintendo is now a huge threat and they have no foreseeable games.

Boss Mog · Nov 13, 2017

I hope that includes a new model

HBP · Nov 13, 2017

Good news, I picked one up when Mario came out. I have yet to even plug the dock in, I really enjoy the handheld mode.

KungFucius · Nov 13, 2017

dcx4610 said:
I see the Switch well stocked at every store I go to now. Maybe they are selling but it seems like everyone has at least 10 in stock after initial drought after launch. Hope they dont overestimate the demand.

I noticed this too, but it's still hard-ish, or delayed to buy one online. I think this may be an artifact of the shift from brick and mortar to online. As in if they are not selling out, but might sell better if they optimized their stock distribution. But seeing that we are 10 days away Black Thursday evening, It's starting to look like they can meet a lot of the holiday demand in the US.

Beegeous · Nov 15, 2017

Dinzy said:
I noticed this too, but it's still hard-ish, or delayed to buy one online. I think this may be an artifact of the shift from brick and mortar to online. As in if they are not selling out, but might sell better if they optimized their stock distribution. But seeing that we are 10 days away Black Thursday evening, It's starting to look like they can meet a lot of the holiday demand in the US.

We also don't know what they have to announce for next year. If the constant drip of quality games is there then 30m isn't a stretch.

IMO we'll get a January Direct in which their plans for the year are laid out. We know that Yoshi and Kirby are already locks for a 2018 launch but I think we'll also get a glimpse at big third party as well as confirmation of a Q4 Pokemon release.

//DEVIL// · Nov 15, 2017

I am going to guess they will get the screen from china very soon for mass production ( i believe the current Switch IPS sreen is made in japan and high quality one at that )

either way i have 2 Switch consoles. one is brand new on a firmware under 3.0.0 for future hacknig ( just the console. brand new ) and i have the daily driver one i use every day.

Hope I am wrong when it comes to changing the quality of the screen from japan to china.

oh and fuck Oled screens. i dont want my burn in.

MilkyJoe · Nov 15, 2017

llien said:
It is in stock for many weeks in Germany. (just checked that it is temporarily out of stock in US, but back in stock in 2 days)

I wonder, what essentially doubling the production of it is based on?

Yeah same here. been in stock in shops for months. Think they might be a little optimistic here.

m.i.s. · Nov 22, 2017

Fta -

On the other hand, there are some signs the Switch's sales rate may already be plateauing. The once hard-to-find system is much easier to find on store shelves and online retailers of late (though that will likely change during the holiday sales rush). And while the Wii had titles like Wii Sports and Wii Fit attracting lapsed and casual gamers to the low-priced hardware in its second year, the Switch's lineup is tilted more heavily towards Nintendo's more established franchises and traditional gameplay types (Nintendo President Tatsumi Kimishima has hinted that more "casual" fare is in the works for the system).

One interesting wrinkle here is that increasing the production rate of the Switch will probably decrease the per-unit cost Nintendo has to incur to make each unit. Thus, if sales start to level off at the current $300 price point, Nintendo could feasibly lower the price by the 2018 holiday season to clear out inventory while continuing to sell the hardware at a profit.

Whatever ends up happening, the reported quick ramp up in Switch production shows Nintendo has a nearly boundless confidence in the system's future. That's a good sign after such confidence was in very short supply in the 3DS and Wii U era. But that kind of confidence could end up looking like overconfidence if the Switch ends up selling at a merely healthy pace rather than a potentially record-setting one. So despite a strong start and Nintendo's apparent expectations, there's still some risk in assuming the Switch will end up as a Wii- or DS-level success for the company.

Plenty Switch in stock too.

NSW USA Stock

NSW UK Stock

Xenobureido · Nov 22, 2017

This isn't a very smart article. The only point is 'Switch is now readily available, which is bad BECAUSE.'.

We're in the holiday season now, sales will stay high for November and December. Numbers will begin getting interesting come early spring, when there's no big rush as well as, so far, no big games releasing.

ryanofcall · Nov 22, 2017

If Pokémon comes out next year, they better make enough switches, because they'll sell out again like the 3ds did (in switzerland) when x&y came out.

Rodolfo Brito · Nov 22, 2017

They would sell lots of units in Brazil if they take us seriously. We are eager to buy Switches, Come back to Brazil, Nintendo.

m.i.s. · Nov 22, 2017

Repeating Wii level of sales will be a tall order.

Fta -

Even the low end of that 25 million sales range is ambitious, to put it mildly. The Wii sold 25.94 million units in its second full fiscal year, during the height of the sellout mania surrounding that motion-control console. These days, the market-leading PS4 sold just 17.7 million in its second full fiscal year on shelves. Even the market-dominating PS2 sold just 22.52 million units in its most successful fiscal year, roughly three years after launch.

As much as Pokemon [and Animal Crossing, Smash, Kart, Mario 3D] will help with sales, that did not help 3DS stave off a decline to ~70 million from DS's 154 million units.

mckmas8808 · Nov 22, 2017

m.i.s. said:
Repeating Wii level of sales will be a tall order.

Fta -

As much as Pokemon [and Animal Crossing, Smash, Kart, Mario 3D] will help with sales, that did not help 3DS stave off a decline to ~70 million from DS's 154 million units.

Wow great point.

Exellen · Nov 23, 2017

That is no reason Nintendo launch such product within 2~3 years. As you can see, Switch still in short supply now, there won't be so idiot to launch a new product so soon.

norinrad · Nov 23, 2017

Boss★Moogle;253015295 said:
I hope that includes a new model

4k and TV sales would go up.

Toadthemushroom · Nov 23, 2017

m.i.s. said:
Repeating Wii level of sales will be a tall order.

Fta -

As much as Pokemon [and Animal Crossing, Smash, Kart, Mario 3D] will help with sales, that did not help 3DS stave off a decline to ~70 million from DS's 154 million units.

This is why I've always seen the handheld market as in greater decline than the console market moving between generations, moreso if you also include Vita against PSP.

3DS has barely sold more LTD in North America than the N64 did, and no one kids themselves into seeing the N64 as a huge success. LTD 3DS sales are also weighted higher towards Japan than DS, where North American and European region sales were stronger.

It made sense for Nintendo to pitch the Switch as a home console first when you see how the dynamics of the handheld market changed in generation 8. A lot of the unique games that sold very well and made a name for the DS themselves saw massive declines (e.g. Layton). Their replacements (Yokai Watch, Monster Hunter, Tomodachi Life) weren't necessarily necessary for a dedicated handheld market anymore.

Hoshigumi · Nov 23, 2017

Naked Snake said:
And why do people think it's virtually impossible for the Switch to do the same, as strongly as willing to bet all their money on it?

I think the DS was helped by its lower introduction cost, in the UK a Switch costs like more than double the OG DS did.

Dunki · Nov 23, 2017

Naked Snake said:
And why do people think it's virtually impossible for the Switch to do the same, as strongly as willing to bet all their money on it?

Not only has the market drastically changed but you also need a Killer Lineup for this. Which games do you think will bring these kind of demands when a Zelda and Mario game was already released this year?

Pokemon?

NicknameMy · Nov 23, 2017

Smash Bros, Metroid and Pokemon in the same year incoming?

Xenobureido · Nov 23, 2017

NicknameMy said:
Smash Bros, Metroid and Pokemon in the same year incoming?

Metroid bears zero relevance for Switch sales. Pokemon is likely a 2019-title. And Smash Bros. might turn out to be a glorified port of SSB4.

If I had thread creating-privileges, I'd start a discussion about Nintendo's 2018 lineup, because as of now it is wholly unknown in terms of bigger titles.

Hilarion · Nov 23, 2017

Does this mean that they see ~40 million Switches sold by March 2019? That seems staggeringly optimistic.

Neff · Nov 24, 2017

Xenobureido said:
Metroid bears zero relevance for Switch sales.

It will make a palpable difference in the US, even if it doesn't anywhere else.

Moose84 · Nov 24, 2017

Xenobureido said:
Pokemon is likely a 2019-title. And Smash Bros. might turn out to be a glorified port of SSB4.

Or, given the 25-30 million figure, Pokemon is likely a 2018 title and Smash Bros, 3-4 years after the last game, will be a brand new one.

Who knows.

mckmas8808 · Nov 24, 2017

Hilarion said:
Does this mean that they see ~40 million Switches sold by March 2019? That seems staggeringly optimistic.

Sounds insane to me.

Support NeoGAF

Nintendo planning to manufacture 25-30m Switch units for next financial year

Member

Neo Member

Member

Banned

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Banned

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

King Snowflake

Member

Member

Member

Banned

Banned

Member

Member

Banned

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives

Neo Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Neo Member

Banned

Member

Member

Member

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives

Similar threads