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Pachter: "PSP2 will be dead on arrival" [Update 675]
- Thread starter DaBargainHunta
- Start date
2 Minutes Turkish
Banned
OuterWorldVoice said:
I'm genuinely surprised the iPhone 4 and Touch 4 didn't have slide out gamepads. Would end the DS and PSP overnight pretty much.
Steve Youngblood
Member
No it wouldn't. It would be another feather in their cap as far as making significant strides towards being in contention, but the notion that touch screen-only controls are the only thing standing in the way of Apple becoming the king of mobile gaming is a bit misguided.2 Minutes Turkish said:
It's not that Japan doesn't count, it's that on a worldwide scale, it doesn't count for much. PSP has been doing fine in Japan for some time, but that doesn't change the fact that it's pretty much dead elsewhere and that current worldwide sales (all markets combined) are poor.
Steve Youngblood
Member
Also, Pachter is an American focused on advising American investors about domestic market trends. There's plenty to criticize in regards to Pachter's prognostications, but insinuating that he's egregiously belittling the significance of the Japanese market isn't something worth focusing on.Jokeropia said:
radioheadrule83
Banned
The big woody of the iPod Touch? :lol
Is that a normal turn of phrase that I've been unaware of?
Is that a normal turn of phrase that I've been unaware of?
Steve Youngblood said:
That's a fair assessment, but declaring a platform DOA rather than an also-ran requires, IMO, a complete collapse of platform holder support and a lack of the same kind of profitable niche other heavily regional consoles have carved out outside their home territories.
My new PSP3000 with a fully charged battery only gets 4 hours of play time whether it's playing a game off of UMD or fully installed. I don't see how the PSP2 will have battery life over an hour with the features that are being speculated. This is the biggest problem with the system and if it does have crappy battery life it deserves to be dead on arrival.
If we look at where the PSP is in the west, it is easy to come to Pachter's conclusion. If you look at PSP in Japan right now though the system is currently beasting.
Also, we look at the success of the Gamecube and Xbox there is no way we could have forecasted the success of the Wii and Xbox 360. We really need to know what the PSP2 is before making final judgment on the device.
Also, we look at the success of the Gamecube and Xbox there is no way we could have forecasted the success of the Wii and Xbox 360. We really need to know what the PSP2 is before making final judgment on the device.
Until I see hard numbers that show how many games have sold Pacther is just blowing smoke.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2010-11-23-core-games-remain-best-investment-for-publishers
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2010-11-23-core-games-remain-best-investment-for-publishers
I do not for a moment think the PSP2 will be "dead on arrival." On the other hand, unless Sony has something creative or innovative up its sleeve that just makes us wonder what we did before the PSP2 was released, I don't see the PSP2 doing PSP1-level numbers. Sony had its chance the first time, really got its foot in the door, and then just let it crumble without pushing the platform forward.
I mean, there were some fun games on PSP, but I got burnt on the screen quality of the PSP not once but twice. "Oh, we got it right this time!" That shit pissed me off, and I never even gave the PSP Go a chance.
And then, there have been no significant features added to the PSP since it was released. I mean, it was already behind the DS in terms of control technicality from the start, and Nintendo kept refreshing the DS. I was shocked when Sony released three redesigns, none of which added anything as astounding as touch functionality or anywhere in the ballpark.
Who's to say they wouldn't drop the ball again?
I mean, there were some fun games on PSP, but I got burnt on the screen quality of the PSP not once but twice. "Oh, we got it right this time!" That shit pissed me off, and I never even gave the PSP Go a chance.
And then, there have been no significant features added to the PSP since it was released. I mean, it was already behind the DS in terms of control technicality from the start, and Nintendo kept refreshing the DS. I was shocked when Sony released three redesigns, none of which added anything as astounding as touch functionality or anywhere in the ballpark.
Who's to say they wouldn't drop the ball again?
Dreams-Visions
Member
no, it wouldn't have. but it would have made their lives damn difficult.2 Minutes Turkish said:
as for the gamepad, I'm surprised that nobody has developed (or been allowed to develop) a controller peripheral.
speculawyer
Member
Yeah, I'm gonna have to agree with him on this.
The iPhone, Android phones, the iPad, and the iTouch are really whacking the mobile gaming market hard. Nintendo better hope the 3D DS catches on because their cash cow mobile line may be entering a difficult time.
Why by $30 games at the store when you can download $0.99 games?
The mobile gaming certainly won't be killed but a lot of kids are going to be given Mommy's last gen iPhone or Android phone to play games on.
The iPhone, Android phones, the iPad, and the iTouch are really whacking the mobile gaming market hard. Nintendo better hope the 3D DS catches on because their cash cow mobile line may be entering a difficult time.
Why by $30 games at the store when you can download $0.99 games?
The mobile gaming certainly won't be killed but a lot of kids are going to be given Mommy's last gen iPhone or Android phone to play games on.
loosus said:
wat
Each iteration has had a variety of functionality improvements. From TV-Output (2000), Built-in-Microphone (3000), Bluetooth linking (Go), etc. This is on top of the variety of software updates that brought Skype, Comics, and Internet Browsing to the platform. What you're asking for isn't possible. You can't just change the way you interact with the system half-way through the thing's life if it's something that older owners cannot adopt in any way. A touchscreen would kind of be impossible to add without SOLing all older PSP owners. Unlike the Go with PSP camera based games, there's a lot of older PSP owners out there (now, if they're actually buying any games is another discussion).
None of the DS revisions offer anything astouding either for the exact same reason. The DSi has extra RAM and two cameras but that's being utilized by developers just as much as the Wii's Motion+.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
speculawyer said:
That is how a lot of these kids will get these systems. Mommy and Daddy upgrade and give the old iPhone to the kid. Even without a service phone contract... it still acts like an iPod Touch.
Agent X
Member
loosus said:
As Takao pointed out, they did add some functions through the various hardware revisions, but the bulk of the new features were brought to all PSP users free of charge through the wonder of firmware updates. When I got my launch PSP, there was no Web browser, Internet radio, or digital comic reader, but I was able to add all of these features and more throughout the years.
charlequin
Banned
Zachack said:
Sure. That's the userbase that exists right now. That's the userbase that is going to be determining the success of the various platforms in the next hardware generation, which is what we're talking about right now. That userbase is not going DD-only for major purchases in the next few years pretty much no matter what anyone does; the closest anyone is going to get to that is maybe easing them in enough that there's more potential for all-DD to be an option the generation after.
I do not suffer from any diseases or physical conditions that cause me to have no forewarning before I need to use the bathroom, but I imagine that if I did I would have trouble playing games online, yes. In pretty much any situation where a real live person wants my attention while I'm gaming online I'll have the option of "hold on a minute" unless it's like a chopped-off finger or something, which is pretty much the opposite of the ridiculous "yeah you just get kicked off your server if your phone rings" idea you're proposing here.
gofreak said:
My goal is to establish why convergence is out of reach for right now, when we're a year or less away from the launch of two new handheld gaming platforms whose functions are not (next year or the year after that or in all likelihood the year after that) going to be fully duplicated on the smartphones people actually own. It's going to take companies actually spending effort on gaming (which Apple is doing and Google is just starting to do) and companies actively trying to move in on Nintendo and Sony's dedicated space (which so far no one is really doing) and doing so well, not just with a naive or foolish attempt.
I fully believe that handheld gaming devices will eventually converge in with media players and phones. (Heck, I believe consoles will converge in with them too.) What I think is silly, hyperbolic to the point of being nearly useless, is suggesting that such a point has arrived and that the PSP2 is "dead on arrival" as a result.
Steve Youngblood said:
This is pretty much my position as well.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
2 Minutes Turkish said:
*Apple adds a dock input for horizontal mode on all iOS device*
*Apple introduces the iController*
*Apple bundles the iController with some of the devices and have it avaliable to be brought at Best Buy and the Apple Store*
charlequin said:
Fantastic post.
Really, my major peeve is with the lazy pricepoint comparisons, as I believed then and still believe now that an open market of $1-$10 games is simply not a sustainable business model for anyone but the smallest companies and that prices are only going to go up as mobile gaming continues to grow.
Mrbob said:
Let's be realistic here. Take away the Monster Hunter franchise and the PSP in Japan is about a dominant as a wet noodle. Can we really put our faith in an ENTIRELY new system that isn't even out yet on the back of a preceding system who owes just about it's sole success to ONE franchise/game? Keep in mind, this level of success is only seen in one country.
Can we really do that?
Steve Youngblood said:
I honestly think you couldn't be more wrong. To me, the iphone represents the essence of what portable gaming is all about - quick bouts of gaming on the go for cheap. The touch screen controls present a big problem for many types of games, especially action games. If there was an actual d-pad, it'd be almost inevitable that iphone/ipad/itouch take over the handheld gaming market. Who wants to take a portable game system with them wherever they go? Not many folks, but EVERYONE has their phone with them at all times. The fact that I can download a new game in seconds by just hopping on the app store is the icing on the cake. Some of these ios games rival "full scale" games in design, gameplay, length, etc., at 10% the cost.
I think Nintendo is on the right path with the 3DS, in the sense that handheld systems will need to start offering something different that cant' be replicated on anything else. I don't know what the PSP2 is supposed to offer, but if it's just improved graphics... I can't see it eclipsing the PSP's success.
Not to side track the conversation, but the lite, same with the slim offer better battery life and better light. DSi, apart from better specs (which aren't really used as you said) offer the DD store and bigger screens. Both handhelds offer nice upgrades with their revisionsTakao said:
jman2050 said:
I don't agree. For one, the cost to develop these portable games are MUCH cheaper than full scale games. Two, there's no retail space to worry about, no inventory to worry about, little to no advertising to worry about, etc. This helps increase margins. Three, in-app purchases are better integrated with games than other forms of DLC, which is almost like free money to devs.
Every single feature added to the PSP was insignificant and forgettable. That's a problem when you're missing features compared to your major competitor from the day you release it.Takao said:
And no, Sony could have added a touch screen to the PSP halfway through its cycle. That's not "SOLing" anybody. There would continue to be games made for all PSPs that did not use the touch screen, and there could have been games made that optionally used it if it was available on the PSP (if Sony designed it that way). If you want to talk about "SOLing" somebody, talk about the fact that Sony essentially tarnished the brand by not refreshing it to any significant degree over the years. That hurt every single PSP owner.
The DSi did introduce one big feature: DSi Ware. Now, in your view, you must see that as "SOLing" older DS owners since they can't play DSi Ware games. Did it hurt Nintendo or the DS brand? Not a bit. Just as many normal DS games are made now as were previously.
Adding a touch screen would have been no more offensive than Nintendo introducing the Wii Motion Plus for the Wii. Sony was wrong with the PSP out the gate for not having a touch screen, Sony stuck to its outdated design throughout without making any attempt to correct it, and you're defending them on it.
Why do some people seem to write off PSP2 completely? Isn't there a chance- however small it may 'seem'- that PSP2 would offer similar or better 'killer' features than the competition (whether it is from Apple or Ninty)?
This is Sony we are talking about; a company with expertise in both electronics and gaming.
I think both 3DS and PSP2 will be better than ANY Apple product in the gaming department if only for the gaming-focus these devices will be.
This is Sony we are talking about; a company with expertise in both electronics and gaming.
I think both 3DS and PSP2 will be better than ANY Apple product in the gaming department if only for the gaming-focus these devices will be.
Pureauthor
Member
Portable gaming is 'about' playing games. Period. Not just five-minute pick-up-and-play games, not just 50-hour RPGs, not just Tetris or *insert game genre here*.
Now that's not to say the handhelds don't have issues with handling several genres (most prominently the FPS), but by now handhelds can cover almost the entire spectrum of game types, so attempting to stuff it into a little corner of what it's 'supposed' to be used for is doing them a disservice.
charlequin
Banned
seady said:
An excellent point. Phones and tablets are actually quite good at serving as ereaders, but there's still a fairly huge market for dedicated devices in that space, and as long as there's still a certain type of display advantage to be had in e-ink that's likely to stay true, even if many people will not care and still just read books on their phone/tablet/media-player.
loosus said:
I just think you're asking too much for them to do. Back in 2003, when the PSP was announced, no one used touchscreens. Just like the Go adding a second analog stick (which was at one point actually in the cards IIRC), splitting the userbase like that isn't a smart thing to do, and isn't one companies have had great success with (the only real exception is GBC-only games, but even then that's kind of sketchy). You mention DSiWare, the reason why no one really complains about it, quite simply is because no one cares about. I own a DSi, and I own DSiWare. It should speak volumes of the importance of DSiWare that despite owning the platform in question, I couldn't even remember they added an online store.
The original PSP created a lot of mistakes that I don't think Sony could fix within its life span. They have a clean slate with their next portable platform. They have to be wise, and choose their actions carefully. Putting a UMD drive in the PSP2 would be murder in the West, but would help it exponentially in Japan because of easier platform migration (since Japan actually still cares about the original platform). They have to plan for the future with this device, because while the PSP's internal parts were pretty future proof, everything outside it wasn't.
RiverBed said:
Historically, Sony's gaming division has very much been on the observe, improve, and react state of mind rather than diving head first into unknown waters. They're a very safe company. It's arguably something that can be applied to the entire company. Granted, the gaming division who drew up the original quartet of platforms are not the same one that exists today.
Actually, phones and tablets are terrible e-readers for anyone trying to do so at a stretch. All this does is encourage people to buy a kindle from the mounting frustration of trying to use their other devices for a purpose they're not meant for. Because people tend to read for swathes of time, while they play handheld games in short bursts. So they don't necessarily desire a better device for games. An iphone is 'good enough.'charlequin said:
True. That strengthens my argument; if they won't take risks, they'll improve the attractive points more. Even if risks from competition pays out, that still won't count out Sony's approach.Takao said:
I am just confused how are some writing off Sony this way and looking at Apple as the holy grain of gaming. I don't see Apple being ANY different than cellphone gaming and that has never been able to compete with dedicated gaming machines- nor will it for the near future.
The Abominable Snowman
Member
Do we have iOS game sales figures? I've heard of games like Angry Birds doing well, but did it cross a million? And how many other iOS games have been so lucky?
Hot Coldman
Banned
Gowans007 said:
More importantly, Uncharted Portable.
Gowans007 said:
I think this depend on the online ability of the system since it already have duel analogs , if PSP2 can give people solid online with console-like features (chat , invites , trophies..ect) then Sony might have their Call of Duty portable/on the go machine (like Monster Hunter in Japan).
Convergence is the way forward. My iPhone 4's camera may not be as good as standalone cameras, but its still good enough, and I doubt you can use a standalone camera to edit the picture you just took in image editing software then email/upload it to Facebook.
For gaming the iPhone/iPod is more convenient than a normal handheld not just because you always have it with you, but you always have all your games with you as well. It just does what a handheld should do, be there when you're out and about and want to play a game.
For gaming the iPhone/iPod is more convenient than a normal handheld not just because you always have it with you, but you always have all your games with you as well. It just does what a handheld should do, be there when you're out and about and want to play a game.
Steve Youngblood
Member
I'm more or less referring to the notion that it's not going to be an overnight phenomenon where Jobs comes out and unveils the iDevice 5th generation devices, and just like that Apple is number 1. It's not going to happen. First of if, after all these years of emphasizing the elegance of the touch screen and how smoothly it works with their OS that they designed to use nothing but touch, they're not going to come out and say "All phones now have gaming controls on them!" I guess they could release a version, but that just muddies the waters for these theoretical action game, as now they're not targeting the -- what is it now, over 100 million iPhone and iPod Touch owners? -- market, but the iDevice Gaming hardware owners. That would take years to build up, especially when we go back to my previous point: Apple isn't a games developer who can market the killer app that's going to drive sales of their more gaming-focused device.commish said:
Also, to the notion of price and value proposition, I think two things are going to happen. One is that, though I don't think you'll see full $30 - $40 brick and mortar retail prices on games in the App Store, prices will start to settle for higher tier games somewhere closer to the $15 - $20 mark, and that production values on many of these games simultaneously goes up. Sure, I think you'll still be able to find good, cheap games, from aspiring indie developers, but I think this wild west will eventually more or less end. Basically, I'm saying that the idea that people will flock to the iDevice market because they can get awesome games at 10 percent of the cost of a game on a dedicated gaming platform will not last forever. Furthermore, I would argue that the notion that some of these games rival "full scale" games is slightly disingenuous in that the use of quotations denotes that you're probably not referring to the upper echelon DS/PSP titles that are worth $30 - $40 in that comparison in as much as you're referring to simpler games that probably have no business costing what they cost aside from the fact that they exist in a store, and that's what store-bought physical copies cost.