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View Poll Results: GAF Decides
Macron
520 35.49%
Le Pen
29 1.98%
Pain au chocolat
194 13.24%
Chocolatine
68 4.64%
Thor Deux: Un Monde Obscur
654 44.64%
Voters: 1465. You may not vote on this poll


Ac30
Member
(03-20-2017, 11:40 PM)

Originally Posted by whyamihere

Probably not. His numbers have been literally flat for a while now, while everyone else besides MLP has seen some movement. It's shockingly consistent.

From that image it looks like Macron is pulling from both Hamon and Fillon. He's threading the needle well for now.
Staab
Member
(03-21-2017, 12:06 AM)
Staab's Avatar
Mélenchon's jab about the PS finally having a debate was goddamn golden.
Ac30
Member
(03-21-2017, 12:12 AM)
Shit, when there's 3 of them talking I have no idea who's arguing what. My French isn't that good :(
LordKano
Banned
(03-21-2017, 12:16 AM)

Originally Posted by Ac30

Shit, when there's 3 of them talking I have no idea who's arguing what. My French isn't that good :(

Sometimes even as a native French speaker I don't get what they're talking about. Especially with Macron.
Moppeh
Banned
(03-21-2017, 12:19 AM)
Damn, Le Pen's graph game is strong.

"Look at these lines. Ours should be higher!"
whyamihere
Banned
(03-21-2017, 12:19 AM)

Originally Posted by Ac30

From that image it looks like Macron is pulling from both Hamon and Fillon. He's threading the needle well for now.

Yeah. It's easier to see with a larger graph.



Dark blue MLP, Yellow Macron, Blue Fillon, Pink Hammon, Red JLM, etc. Purple is Dupont-Aignan, who has been rising a bit??

But basically, MLP and JLM haven't moved for months, while both Fillon and Hammon seem to be on a slow-yet-steady decline.
Ac30
Member
(03-21-2017, 12:21 AM)

Originally Posted by whyamihere

Yeah. It's easier to see with a larger graph.



Dark blue MLP, Yellow Macron, Blue Fillon, Pink Hammon, Red JLM, etc. Purple is Dupont-Aignan, who has been rising a bit??

But basically, MLP and JLM haven't moved for months, while both Fillon and Hammon seem to be on a slow-yet-steady decline.

Good to see.

Originally Posted by Moppeh

Damn, Le Pen's graph game is strong.

"Look at these lines. Ours should be higher!"

Where's it sourced from? I've seen the same graphic 3 times and yet I can't seem to find it - I found a few figures where manufacturing has pretty much remained unchanged since 2011, for both Germany and France?
whyamihere
Banned
(03-21-2017, 12:22 AM)

Originally Posted by Ac30

Good to see.

Macron v. Le Pen is even less interesting.



It's... a line!
Moppeh
Banned
(03-21-2017, 12:23 AM)

Originally Posted by Ac30


Where's it sourced from? I've seen the same graphic 3 times and yet I can't seem to find it - I found a few figures where manufacturing has pretty much remained unchanged since 2011, for both Germany and France?

No clue, sorry.
Ac30
Member
(03-21-2017, 12:23 AM)

Originally Posted by whyamihere

Macron v. Le Pen is even less interesting.



It's... a line!

Her getting 40% is really shitty though.
whyamihere
Banned
(03-21-2017, 12:25 AM)

Originally Posted by Ac30

Her getting 40% is really shitty though.

She's averaging like 37-38%, but yeah. Should be 2002 pt 2, but it's not.
Ac30
Member
(03-21-2017, 12:27 AM)

Originally Posted by Moppeh

No clue, sorry.

Just looked again, just saw dips in 2008 when the economy crashed but nothing sustained like she had. I'd hope if she's using tales from her ass the moderators would call it out.

Originally Posted by whyamihere

She's averaging like 37-38%, but yeah. Should be 2002 pt 2, but it's not.

Fun times we live in.
Khaz
Member
(03-21-2017, 12:29 AM)
Khaz's Avatar
Le Pen about the Brexit



Despicable.
LordKano
Banned
(03-21-2017, 12:32 AM)

.
Ac30
Member
(03-21-2017, 12:33 AM)

Originally Posted by LordKano

.

LOL

Kuchera should start working for MLP, he's as good at graphs as she is.
whyamihere
Banned
(03-21-2017, 12:36 AM)

Originally Posted by LordKano

.

STOP
azyless
Member
(03-21-2017, 01:02 AM)
azyless's Avatar
Someone found the actual graph from earlier apparently.
Hmm, don't know what I'll trust more :

or

(Source : https://data.oecd.org/chart/4LMf)
Ac30
Member
(03-21-2017, 01:22 AM)

Originally Posted by azyless

Someone found the actual graph from earlier apparently.
Hmm, don't know what I'll trust more :

or

(Source : https://data.oecd.org/chart/4LMf)

Yeah the second graph is the one I saw too. Wonder where her data is from :P Then again hers is indexed to 2001 so IDK how that would change things.
EmiPrime
Member
(03-21-2017, 01:50 AM)
Watching that debate it just further saddens me as another example of how Le Pen has been normalised in French politics. None of the candidates really took her to task, she gets soft ball questions from the moderators and she gets to show her fake graph. She should have been constantly roasted for being Putin's pawn, absurd Trumpian protectionism (good luck with that 35% tariff on imports to France, surely no country will retaliate) and for championing Frexit while bullshitting about how great Brexit is but they barely made a dent in her. Fuck this for a game of soldiers, I'm going to bed.

Disclaimer I got home very late and missed the first half of the debate.
PotionBleue
Member
(03-21-2017, 01:51 AM)
PotionBleue's Avatar
After watching this, I feel like it's the November 2016 primary of the right again, where Macron is the new Juppé (grossly overestimated by polls) meanwhile Fillon quietly wins the debate.


Originally Posted by Staab

Mélenchon's jab about the PS finally having a debate was goddamn golden.

Yeah that was hilarious.
https://twitter.com/TF1LeJT/status/843936340928618501


And also the presenter talking about the upcoming TV series at the end of the debate was really ridiculous… I believe they did the same thing in the left or right primary earlier… Does no one at TF1 realize it's pathetic? Even the whole audience was laughing.

https://twitter.com/Datshitcraaaay/s...70054958080000
Ac30
Member
(03-21-2017, 02:19 AM)

Originally Posted by PotionBleue

After watching this, I feel like it's the November 2016 primary of the right again, where Macron is the new Juppé (grossly overestimated by polls) meanwhile Fillon quietly wins the debate.




Yeah that was hilarious.
https://twitter.com/TF1LeJT/status/843936340928618501


And also the presenter talking about the upcoming TV series at the end of the debate was really ridiculous… I believe they did the same thing in the left or right primary earlier… Does no one at TF1 realize it's pathetic? Even the whole audience was laughing.

https://twitter.com/Datshitcraaaay/s...70054958080000

I'm already dreading it. Does the FN usually over or underperform the polls?
EmiPrime
Member
(03-21-2017, 02:26 AM)

Originally Posted by Ac30

I'm already dreading it. Does the FN usually over or underperform the polls?

The first round polls seem about right but Le Pen seems wildly over-estimated for the second round as the FN don't increase their percentage of vote in second rounds. She is polling more or less the same as in 2015.

You should only start dreading things if there is a big terrorist attack on French soil close to polling day for the FN to exploit.
Ac30
Member
(03-21-2017, 02:29 AM)

Originally Posted by EmiPrime

The first round polls seem about right but Le Pen seems wildly over-estimated for the second round as the FN don't increase their percentage of vote in second rounds. She is polling more or less the same as in 2015.

You should only start dreading things if there is a big terrorist attack on French soil close to polling day for the FN to exploit.

I'm actually concerned that she isn't a raving ninny like Trump is.
mo60
Member
(03-21-2017, 02:38 AM)

Originally Posted by Ac30

I'm actually concerned that she isn't a raving ninny like Trump is.

She hasn't tied herself to trump as much as Wilders did in the Netherlands, but the french electorate will vote against her in the second round like crazy because they will assume that her government will be similar to trump's.

The fun will start soon for le pen once the field is whittled down to 2.
EmiPrime
Member
(03-21-2017, 02:39 AM)

Originally Posted by Ac30

I'm actually concerned that she isn't a raving ninny like Trump is.

Well she kind of is. Ideologically she's on the same wavelength and she's a demagogue who can hoodwink idiots with unworkable ideas and appeal to racists. She's just a bit more intelligent and without the overt misogyny.

Unless you're a Muslim woman in which case the gloves come off.
mo60
Member
(03-21-2017, 02:54 AM)
Also why the heck was le pen defending diesel fuel during the debate?

Does the FN have an anti-environmental stance?

Also lol at le pen's answer on restoring a sense of morality in public life.Fillon's answer was also pretty weak.
ZOONAMI
Junior Member
(03-21-2017, 02:55 AM)
ZOONAMI's Avatar
I hope if nothing else trump serves to ensure good turnout among rational minds so that le pen doesn't happen.
EmiPrime
Member
(03-21-2017, 03:01 AM)

Originally Posted by ZOONAMI

I hope if nothing else trump serves to ensure good turnout among rational minds so that le pen doesn't happen.

This is France dude, expect lots of "ils sont tous pourris" false equivalency, casual racism and apathy.

Not enough to get Le Pen elected mind.
Ac30
Member
(03-21-2017, 03:33 AM)

Originally Posted by EmiPrime

This is France dude, expect lots of "ils sont tous pourris" false equivalency, casual racism and apathy.

Not enough to get Le Pen elected mind.

We'll see what the polls say later this week.
Slaythe
Member
(03-21-2017, 03:35 AM)
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According to polls Macron was the most convincing.

What ? I must have watched the bizarro debate, if Macron was the most convincing...
Ac30
Member
(03-21-2017, 03:38 AM)

Originally Posted by Slaythe

According to polls Macron was the most convincing.

What ? I must have watched the bizarro debate, if Macron was the most convincing...

Where was this?
Slaythe
Member
(03-21-2017, 03:44 AM)
Slaythe's Avatar

Originally Posted by Ac30

Where was this?

BFMTV, they said Macron was far above everybody else as the most convincing.

I mean, that he didn't completely fail is one thing, but far above ?

I feel like I'm crazy. No way most people thought he was.
orioto
Good Art™
(03-21-2017, 03:47 AM)
orioto's Avatar

Originally Posted by Slaythe

BFMTV, they said Macron was far above everybody else as the most convincing.

I mean, that he didn't completely fail is one thing, but far above ?

I feel like I'm crazy. No way most people thought he was.

I'm not really surprised. I think the whole "young and dynamic" thing works for him and he had 'a little like fillon in he primaries) that posture of someone who just knows how to do. Independently from the content, it's all about the charisma.
Ac30
Member
(03-21-2017, 03:55 AM)

Originally Posted by Slaythe

BFMTV, they said Macron was far above everybody else as the most convincing.

I mean, that he didn't completely fail is one thing, but far above ?

I feel like I'm crazy. No way most people thought he was.

Interestingly, it says that Melenchon was best understood. Somewhat happy to see that Fillon is also above LePen in most measures so even if he somehow sweeps Macron he still has a shot as a (disappointing) fallback.
Larkoz
Member
(03-21-2017, 04:03 AM)
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Wow Macron was really disappointing...
Ferulci
Member
(03-21-2017, 04:04 AM)
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As usual with those kind of debates each fans/party will say his/her candidate won.
- I understand why Macron is the winner for BFMTV. He had the most to lose and was able to dodge and neutralize attacks from Hamon/Fillon/Lepen (with the Athena exclamation with Hamon/Melenchon on her for burkini and such). Also, the fact that he was able to praise each candidate at least once comforts his fanbase that he's left of the right, right of the left. He wasnt magnificient but I expected much worse.
- Melenchon was clearly the most charismatic, he was just dominating the room during speech on immigration, education and such. He might have preyed on Hamon fanbase but I cant see any other voters saying "man I'm voting for Melenchon" after this debate.
- I thought Lepen was very bad. As much as I dislike her, she is usually in control and taking possession of the debate. Here, she was trapped several times, lost control with Macron (on burkini and europe) or Fillon. More importantly, she was just screaming and shouting by the end which is bad because she tried to look like a real human being for the past few months.
mo60
Member
(03-21-2017, 05:45 AM)

Originally Posted by Ferulci

As usual with those kind of debates each fans/party will say his/her candidate won.
- I understand why Macron is the winner for BFMTV. He had the most to lose and was able to dodge and neutralize attacks from Hamon/Fillon/Lepen (with the Athena exclamation with Hamon/Melenchon on her for burkini and such). Also, the fact that he was able to praise each candidate at least once comforts his fanbase that he's left of the right, right of the left. He wasnt magnificient but I expected much worse.
- Melenchon was clearly the most charismatic, he was just dominating the room during speech on immigration, education and such. He might have preyed on Hamon fanbase but I cant see any other voters saying "man I'm voting for Melenchon" after this debate.
- I thought Lepen was very bad. As much as I dislike her, she is usually in control and taking possession of the debate. Here, she was trapped several times, lost control with Macron (on burkini and europe) or Fillon. More importantly, she was just screaming and shouting by the end which is bad because she tried to look like a real human being for the past few months.

Also. some of Le Pen's answers to some of the topics being discussed like morality in public life and the energy, nuclear power and the environment section were just awful and were literally not answering the question.
Palette Swap
Member
(03-21-2017, 08:55 AM)
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Originally Posted by mo60

Also why the heck was le pen defending diesel fuel during the debate?

Does the FN have an anti-environmental stance?

They do, they're very much pro-fossil fuels.
Kuldar
Member
(03-21-2017, 09:08 AM)
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Originally Posted by mo60

Also why the heck was le pen defending diesel fuel during the debate?

It's part of their "patriotic" stance. French car manufacturers heavily invested and researched in diesel engine during decades thanks to French government subsidies. It's seen as a French expertise so the FN defend it.
Alx
Member
(03-21-2017, 09:38 AM)
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I only watched the first half, but judging by the comments on TV this morning I got most of the good parts. :P
I think all candidates were decent in their own way (not that I'd support all of them, but they played their cards well).

Macron was the one who had the most to lose, and needed to give confidence in his ability to manage direct confrontation. He did fine on that regard, not letting others bully him and having a reasonable outlook. Being the common target of the other candidates can be a positive thing, since it focuses the attention on you (like we could observe in the primaries). He still hasn't the "charismatic leader" image, but maybe he'll manage without it.

Unsurprisingly, Mélenchon was the most charismatic, with great mastery of speech, simple and understandable, sometimes funny. His program sounds like old utopias from the old communist programs though, I guess few people will be convinced by it (otherwise he could steal some thunder from Le Pen, which would be fine by me).

Le Pen is Le Pen, quite clear on her positions (hating EU and Muslims and not hiding it). Not much to do from there, either you share that opinion or you don't ; that's probably why her polls are so stable and her supporters are the most sure of their vote.

Fillon is not done yet, IMO. His position is clearly weakened by the "affaires", but he's still quietly holding his own. It may be a detail, but I think he's the only one looking the part, even if it's a cliché, and that may help convince some of the undecided. And of course he's still the only choice for voters of the right. I wouldn't be surprised if he got a small bump in polls in the next days.

Hamon may have been the weakest. Not much to defend, squeezed between the more populist Mélenchon and the more consensual Macron. His strategy seems to attack "money in politics" to weaken Macron, but it's mostly hurting himself.
ebil
Member
(03-21-2017, 09:54 AM)
ebil's Avatar

Originally Posted by Slaythe

BFMTV, they said Macron was far above everybody else as the most convincing.

I mean, that he didn't completely fail is one thing, but far above ?

I feel like I'm crazy. No way most people thought he was.

BFMTV has had a huge crush on Macron for ages so it's not surprising they're relaying it this way? lol. My twitter timeline reflects this, and Macron supporters are by far and away the loudest, tweeting these polls over and over.

I'm really wary of these online polls, especially when they're about candidates who tend to have the most tech-savvy supporters and a history of using (viral) marketing and advertising techniques super effectively.

I'm still nervous that one candidate is being overhyped by the media and social media and that we'll end up having a bad surprise. Hopefully hindsight will make that feeling silly.
Staab
Member
(03-21-2017, 11:01 AM)
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Originally Posted by Alx

Comments

I agree on most of it, Mélenchon is such an idealist and pacifist, it's always refreshing to hear him, it's just sad that he's too much of a fringe candidate to matter.
His stance comes off as weak for some but I think he's a decent hopeful.

Macron did seem a little hollow in some of his responses, you can see he lacks some experience, contrary to Fillion, who, despite all the scandals, remains a very solid option due to his expertise (his pragmatism and numbers oriented thinking remains attractive).

LePen, eh, I really don't want to comment, she aims to please, like Trump did, I dislike her ideas.

Hamon, to me, was one of the most convincing, I like his policies a lot and he's a good middle ground between pro-EU and nationalism, his stance on security, borders and education is strong. He sadly lacks the all important charisma...
Sinsem
Member
(03-21-2017, 11:57 AM)
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Originally Posted by Alx

I only watched the first half, but judging by the comments on TV this morning I got most of the good parts. :P

Second part was really interesting too though.
Overall, I think it was the best we could have expected from a debate between 5 candidates.
No one fell appart, but there's no clear winner either.
G.O.O.
Member
(03-21-2017, 12:02 PM)
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A second poll gives the win to Macron

http://www.lci.fr/elections/emmanuel...t-2029756.html

Don't think I've read two identical analysises on this debate, even from people I consider fairly unbiased. Some said Le Pen did good, others said she sucked. Maybe it's a Trump effect, where you expect others to have concrete stuff and her not to pee her pants or something
Alx
Member
(03-21-2017, 12:04 PM)
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I think that's just confirmation bias, I noticed in previous elections that most people always feel that their candidate "won" the debate, whichever side they are.
PotionBleue
Member
(03-21-2017, 01:22 PM)
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Originally Posted by ebil

BFMTV has had a huge crush on Macron for ages so it's not surprising they're relaying it this way? lol. My twitter timeline reflects this, and Macron supporters are by far and away the loudest, tweeting these polls over and over.

I'm really wary of these online polls, especially when they're about candidates who tend to have the most tech-savvy supporters and a history of using (viral) marketing and advertising techniques super effectively.

This Elabe polling organization seems to always get it wrong lately.

January 12th 2017
Primary of the left: Arnaud Montebourg and Manuel Valls win the debate (Elabe poll for BFM TV)
=> Benoît Hamon wins the primary

October 13th 2016
Primary of the right: Alain Juppé most convincing, followed by Nicolas Sarkozy and Bruno Le Maire (Elabe poll for BFM TV)
=> François Fillon wins the primary

March 21st 2017
Presidential debate: Emmanuel Macron most convincing, followed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Elabe poll for BFM TV)
=> ?
EmiPrime
Member
(03-21-2017, 02:56 PM)
IMO Macron did well enough, he didn't particularly impress but all he needed to do was not crumble and survive the attacks on him. Fillon probably seemed the most presidential in that he's an old white man who looks and speaks a certain way. Hamon was a mess. Le Pen I am too biased to get a read on but I don't think she did as well as she needed to, it's obvious she has peaked and where she's at represents the ceiling for the FN. Melenchon was charismatic but I hope him audibly agreeing with Le Pen over Europe gets some playback as it's one thing to be anti-EU but literally cheerleading Le Pen while she talks during a debate is not a good look.
Khaz
Member
(03-21-2017, 03:21 PM)
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The whole stance over Ukraine and how eastern Europe countries need their borders redefined in relation to Russia was downright scary. I was as flabbergasted as Hamon when it was said, while everybody else nodded in approval. I would love them to react to a Russian statement about the Basque Country or Corsica.
FDC1
Member
(03-21-2017, 03:28 PM)
Edit: wrong
ebil
Member
(03-21-2017, 03:44 PM)
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Originally Posted by Khaz

The whole stance over Ukraine and how eastern Europe countries need their borders redefined in relation to Russia was downright scary. I was as flabbergasted as Hamon when it was said, while everybody else nodded in approval. I would love them to react to a Russian statement about the Basque Country or Corsica.

I agree. That part was right at the end, it's super important and it had me shaking my head so much. Scary stuff.

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