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Canadian PoliGAF - 42nd Parliament: Sunny Ways in Trudeaupia
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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firehawk12
Subete no aware
http://www.health.gov.on.ca/en/public/publications/ohip/eyecare.aspx
Looks like it's only if you have special medical conditions like diabetes.
I guess this is basically buying votes. Then again, who else are ya going to vote for.
killer rin
Member
Nope, the premier known as Dalton McGuinty got rid of that years ago. Now Glasses, Hearing Aids and their associated checkups are only available to those under 18 or above 65 or if you have a special health condition that requires it
Dongs Macabre
aka Daedalos42
So who are y'all voting for in the BC provincial election? I think I'm gonna vote for the NDP, although I'm not a big fan of the one running in my riding.
I ride and die NDP this election. Though I'm voting for them mainly to get rid of the Liberals, and more importantly Christy Clark.
Like most of the province this time around though, I'm expecting a Liberal win.
Sounds an awful lot like Alberta.
Mammoliti was barking out today that toronto should be it's own province
It totally makes sense, too. At least from a toronto POV. Too many provincial elections keep putting the 905 against 416 and it's really annoying wading through the bullshit.
Though unlikely as it is, they should probably split ontario into 3. Golden horseshoe, southern ontario and northern ontario.
Though this would make a conservative province, a liberal province and a swing province, it may be for the best. Golden horseshoe (essentially the GTA) has 25% of canada's population and has very specific needs separate to the rest of the province.
It totally makes sense, too. At least from a toronto POV. Too many provincial elections keep putting the 905 against 416 and it's really annoying wading through the bullshit.
Though unlikely as it is, they should probably split ontario into 3. Golden horseshoe, southern ontario and northern ontario.
Though this would make a conservative province, a liberal province and a swing province, it may be for the best. Golden horseshoe (essentially the GTA) has 25% of canada's population and has very specific needs separate to the rest of the province.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Toronto becoming a province is as pipedreamey as London joining Scotland and leaving the UK to stay with the EU. lol
Also, got a call from Erin O'Toole's office today. The candidates are in super desperation mode it seems... strangely, no call from Chong's people/team, but I assume since I joined through him they just assume I'm going to vote for him.
Also, got a call from Erin O'Toole's office today. The candidates are in super desperation mode it seems... strangely, no call from Chong's people/team, but I assume since I joined through him they just assume I'm going to vote for him.
Of course Kevin O'Leary couldn't withdraw in time to get taken off the ballot. It takes time to figure out you can't win Quebec when you enter the race the day after the French debate.
Anyway, I've totally disconnected from politics for the last little while and it's been great, I highly recommend it. Personally, I came back and O'Leary had dropped out and Ontario is covering my $200 a month meds a few months after I lose my parents health insurance. I don't know what you guys are whinging about, Canadian Politics is going great.
Anyway, I've totally disconnected from politics for the last little while and it's been great, I highly recommend it. Personally, I came back and O'Leary had dropped out and Ontario is covering my $200 a month meds a few months after I lose my parents health insurance. I don't know what you guys are whinging about, Canadian Politics is going great.
Best case scenario: NDP minority with the Greens holding the balance of power.
Most likely scenario: Liberal minority.
Fuck you scenario: another Liberal majority.
AuthenticM
Member
Of course Kevin O'Leary couldn't withdraw in time to get taken off the ballot. It takes time to figure out you can't win Quebec when you enter the race the day after the French debate.
By when do we need to send it back?
It just says its needs to make it to the place by May 26 at 5pm, so however long mail to Toronto takes for you I guess.
I'm tempted to just vote for Chong and sent it in right now, but if anyone has an ordering for the 3 or 4 other candidates I might take that into consideration.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I still haven't got my ballot yet...
And I'm still getting calls from various candidate offices now. Regret putting my real number on the form. lol
And I'm still getting calls from various candidate offices now. Regret putting my real number on the form. lol
AuthenticM
Member
Alright, thanks.
So guys, final order of candidates? What does your final selection look like?
Sharing my cell phone number was definitely a mistake. Thankfully I can just hang up on every call I get because the CPC are the only people with my number old enough to still use the phone feature of phones.
Hiring in general is just a really shitty experience for pretty much everyone involved, employers and employees. Some people more so than others granted. And it's a hard problem, not just sociologically, but straight up mathematically/computationally as well. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matching_(graph_theory)#Maximal_matchings).
Personally if I ever found myself a Prime Minister/Premier I'd just throw money at Formal and Social Science people to work on this problem and hope they figure something out that made hiring a better experience for everyone. A lot of people would feel a lot better and I would walk right through the next election.
matthewwhatever
Member
I wish I could take a bit of a breather from politics for awhile, but my job requires that I follow the news closely. I'm trying to find a new one at the moment, but everything I'm looking at is somehow even more political than what I do now, so I'm thinking a break isn't in the cards.
Related note: if anyone here has any Ottawa job leads, hook me up!
The list of sane candidates is pretty short. I'd say it includes, in alphabetical order:
Michael Chong: I think I've made it clear I don't like him much, but if he somehow won -- which he won't -- I wouldn't be concerned that he'd do something obscenely evil.
Deepak Obhrai: he comes across as a little kooky, but he's been an MP for decades, he has limited cabinet experience, and he's one of the few people in the race who recognizes the need to build an inclusive party. Also, a vote for him implicitly sticks it to the party racists who want to cut immigration and hate brown people.
Erin O'Toole: his little hiccup a few days ago about invoking the notwithstanding clause to respond to R v Jordan, he's by far the reddest Tory in the race, and he seems to be universally beloved as a person on account of how nice he is.
Lisa Raitt: she's been a total dud as a candidate, which surprised me, but she'd still be a really good leader, and she's not a fire-eater ideologue.
Andrew Scheer *maybe* gets included on that list, depending on how you view Harper-style social conservatives. He claims he wouldn't raise divisive issues as PM, but that doesn't change the fact he's anti-same sex marriage, anti-choice, etc. I'd be leery of him, but I could see why some people might disagree.
For me, he's the border between acceptable and unacceptable. The rest are all varying degrees of bad:
Chris Alexander: a complete moron (impressive credentials notwithstanding) who seems to always back himself into weird racist/misogynistic controversies.
Maxime Bernier: dim-witted libertarian with all kinds of regressive views and alt-right ties.
Steven Blaney: single-space candidate (supply management being the issue) running solely to spite Bernier. He was also the minister behind C-51, if that matters to you.
Kellie Leitch: Trump without the charisma, as we've all seen.
Pierre Lemieux: homophobic social conservative
Rick Peterson: flat tax nut who also wants to eliminate corporate taxes and raise consumption taxes.
Andrew Saxton: generic pro-business conservative. He could possibly be on the border with Scheer, but... enh.
Brad Trost: ultra-religious homophobe who's also a deeply unpleasant person
oreomunsta
Banned
? Provincial Libs are not even a factor in AB. It's all about the NDP, Wildrose, and PC's
The BC Liberals obviously have to go, but between the Greens and the NDP I think the best choice is the NDP. The platform is good and Horgan seems decent enough. The Greens still seem, uh, too green. They only have one MLA and then after that the talent pool drops off a cliff. Their platform is decent but there's a few wild and unpolished ideas in there.
Best case scenario is that the NDP wins, we get an proportional representation referendum (which the NDP have promised to campaign in favour of), and the next election we don't have to worry about any vote splitting. The Greens can win a few more seats and grow into being a more robust and well rounded left wing alternative.
They're fucked, aren't they?
Yep, this how my thoughts on each scenario play out.
Wow, you have the same thinking as me here. I would be more comfortable voting Green next time if the NDP won this election and brought in a referendum on proportional representation. And I wouldn't expect them to break that promise either, after the Federal Liberals rightfully caught major heat for dropping electoral reform.
He means that people were skeptical of the polls in 2015 that showed the NDP in the lead in Alberta because of past polling misfires there.
From a strategic perspective, if the Liberals are reduced to a minority of the seats, the NDP should cut a deal with the Greens and oust them, either in coalition or just with Green votes. They're clearly not making much headway at getting the Liberals out of power electorally if denying them a majority is the best they can do in five straight elections.
The question of "who'd you support if you were kingmaker" came up in the debate and Weaver dodged it. I don't blame him, as I'd do the same if I were in his position. Regardless of if you're in third place, Layton showed that you gotta campaign to as if you're capable of winning if you're gonna make a move up the ladder.
This does however raise the very real possibility that Weaver could prop up the BC Liberals. I'm not sure it's correct to position the Greens as being left wing enough that they'd be incompatible with the Liberals. The Libs already will eventually have to get to a $50/ton carbon tax due to the federal timeline. If the Liberals advanced that time table and went beyond $50 to $70 as the Greens propose they'd do in their platform I could see the Greens propping up the Liberals.
KernelPanic
Member
Considering how much dentists charge that would be a much bigger undertaking.
I could see checkups, cleanings and basic care for kids which would go a long way for sure.
I didn't have insurance for the past 2 years. Didn't even think about going to the dentist and I should have
I could be wrong but, if I recall correctly, there was a push for universal healthcare to include oral health care in the late 80s-90s that received a lot of pushback from the dentists, orthodontists, etc., hence why that idea never solidified.
Running the basic income pilots only for lower income people is a mistake. It would be politically difficult to include well-off people in these sorts of trials, but it's just not a good experiment of Universal Basic Income if it starts out by limiting the experiment to a subset of the population. Of course just giving middle class people the money wouldn't correctly test the idea. The deal that should be offered is that to receive the basic income your situation with regards to taxes and other government benefits should also change to match what it might be in the scenario we'd like to test.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I can't remember where I read this or if I'm just making it up based on faulty memory, but I remember a Broadbent or even Douglas quote that said the biggest regret they had regarding healthcare was not including dental.
Some basic care would be nice. I'm in the same position where I only go if I'm in pain, which is probably the worst time to go to a dentist.Considering how much dentists charge that would be a much bigger undertaking.
I could see checkups, cleanings and basic care for kids which would go a long way for sure.
I didn't have insurance for the past 2 years. Didn't even think about going to the dentist and I should have
(Given that some provinces have public car insurance, I wouldn't mind seeing that be a federal thing either, but... yeah. lol)
Hoping my card/ballot shows up next week... I don't even know who to contact for a ballot if I don't get one.
Please dont vote Green. It'll split the vote on the left...They won't win any seats let alone lead the government, and we'll get four more years of Cheshire Christy. Its the party most aligned with my beliefs but I can't do it. Stupid first past the post.
https://youtu.be/ANgSt8LWy_g
https://youtu.be/ANgSt8LWy_g
Has to be NDP for me this BC election. It always is, but usually I at least consider the Liberals. At this point I just feel like I can't trust the BC Liberals to look out for regular people.
Slight tangent: I'm apparently related to Christy Clark. I think she's like my second cousin once removed or something. When I was a kid she randomly came to a family reunion (an annual thing she hasn't been to before or since) and campaigned for whatever thing she was running for at the time.
Slight tangent: I'm apparently related to Christy Clark. I think she's like my second cousin once removed or something. When I was a kid she randomly came to a family reunion (an annual thing she hasn't been to before or since) and campaigned for whatever thing she was running for at the time.
matthewwhatever
Member
I know that the idea of universal dental care has been around for awhile, but I can't seem to find any quotes from any politicians, NDP or not, about it. Lots of places saying we need a Tommy Douglas for dental care, lots of policy NGOs saying dental care should be included, but no politicians advocating for it. I'm surprised I can't find any parties who've included it in their platform, because it seems like a really obvious thing.
Call CPC HQ's 1-800 number.
AuthenticM
Member
Done
I didn't realize until I filled the card that there are more candidates than choices. Looks like Bernier and Leitch are shit out of luck!
edit: wait, I need to send them a print of an ID card of mine? Isn't this supposed to be anonymous?
edit2: I guess we do show IDs when we vote. I don't like the idea of the CPC having a print of them though.
I didn't realize until I filled the card that there are more candidates than choices. Looks like Bernier and Leitch are shit out of luck!
edit: wait, I need to send them a print of an ID card of mine? Isn't this supposed to be anonymous?
edit2: I guess we do show IDs when we vote. I don't like the idea of the CPC having a print of them though.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
The benefits get clawed back as you earn more, so people with an income of above ~$34k wouldn't get anything under the scheme.
matthewwhatever
Member
Reminder (not for you, I guess, since your ballot is already filled out): you don't need to fill out all ten spots. If you want to make your ballot Deepak Obhrai and no one else, you can!
At least you left off the two worst viable candidates. Did you feel a little queasy writing down a vote for Brad Trost?
killer rin
Member
To be fair, if the ballot has gone that far down that your ranking for those terrible candidates actually mean something, the battle has already been lost. Might as well try and still rank them so that you are getting the least-satan satan
No no no no no
Never rank a candidate you don't want to win on a ranked ballot if you don't have to. Ranking them at all increases their chance of winning over not ranking them no matter what.
AuthenticM
Member
oh yes I did
killer rin
Member
Yes, but at the same time they would only get counted when your other rankings get eliminated. In that case if your top three get kicked out you are going to get someone you disagree with anyhow; so you might as well try and get the person you hate the least out of the pile of people you hate the most instead of letting your ballot become spoiled at that point.
The only case where ranking everyone doesn't make sense is in STV where your ballot is redistributed proportionally according to your other rankings. In which case you want to keep the people you disagree with off your ballot entirely since they would actually get your vote from the redistribution process.
According to HuffPoCa, Senator Don Meredith sexually assaulted female employees for years: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/04/30/don-meredith-investigation-workplace-staff_n_16346420.html
matthewwhatever
Member
1st quarter fundraising results are out! A few interesting things:
On the CPC leadership side:
- There's a rumour that Kevin O'Leary's campaign was $300k in debt when he quit the race. Considering he raised more than $1 million last quarter, that's...insane. About in line with what you'd expect from his track record in real business, but still insane. It's no wonder he endorsed Bernier -- he's going to need Bernier's help to pay off that debt if he wants to avoid Elections Canada penalties.
- Leitch's fundraising is still worryingly good. Not good enough to win, but good enough that she's more viable than she should be.
- While Brad Trost is getting all the attention as the Evangelical Candidate, Pierre Lemieux raised significantly more money from significantly more people. He also raised a lot more than Lisa Raitt, which definitely doesn't bode well for her pull off a come from behind win.
- Poor Deepak Obhrai.
On the NDP side:
- The best fundraising totals (Charlie Angus at $110k) would've been tenth in the CPC race.
- Despite the fact he registered before everyone else and had a headstart on fundraising, Peter Julian is dead last. I feel confident in predicting Peter Julian isn't going to win.
Overall:
- I'm not sure the author of the linked article (Eric Grenier) fully understands how fundraising during a leadership election works, as evidenced by the fact he seems to think that leadership donations and party donations are entirely separate. In reality, both the Conservatives and the NDP are taking a cut off the top of all leadership donations 15% for the CPC, and 25% for the NDP. I might be misreading it, and it could be that the fundraising totals for the parties don't include processing fees, but that wouldn't make any sense, since it's still income for the party they need to report.
- With that in mind, the NDP fundraising for the first three months of the year is even more abysmal than the article suggests -- presumably their numbers were slightly inflated by the fact they took 25% off all the leadership donations, and they've also (hopefully) sold memberships.
- I'm not sure what to make of the overall CPC numbers. They raised almost twice as much as the Liberals, but I think about $750k of that comes from processing fees, and the rest of the difference could be memberships sold, depending on how many memberships were sold between January and March. Still, from a LPC partisan perspective, I hope that seeing themselves so far behind the Conservatives lights a fire under them and shakes them from becoming too complacent.
On the CPC leadership side:
- There's a rumour that Kevin O'Leary's campaign was $300k in debt when he quit the race. Considering he raised more than $1 million last quarter, that's...insane. About in line with what you'd expect from his track record in real business, but still insane. It's no wonder he endorsed Bernier -- he's going to need Bernier's help to pay off that debt if he wants to avoid Elections Canada penalties.
- Leitch's fundraising is still worryingly good. Not good enough to win, but good enough that she's more viable than she should be.
- While Brad Trost is getting all the attention as the Evangelical Candidate, Pierre Lemieux raised significantly more money from significantly more people. He also raised a lot more than Lisa Raitt, which definitely doesn't bode well for her pull off a come from behind win.
- Poor Deepak Obhrai.
On the NDP side:
- The best fundraising totals (Charlie Angus at $110k) would've been tenth in the CPC race.
- Despite the fact he registered before everyone else and had a headstart on fundraising, Peter Julian is dead last. I feel confident in predicting Peter Julian isn't going to win.
Overall:
- I'm not sure the author of the linked article (Eric Grenier) fully understands how fundraising during a leadership election works, as evidenced by the fact he seems to think that leadership donations and party donations are entirely separate. In reality, both the Conservatives and the NDP are taking a cut off the top of all leadership donations 15% for the CPC, and 25% for the NDP. I might be misreading it, and it could be that the fundraising totals for the parties don't include processing fees, but that wouldn't make any sense, since it's still income for the party they need to report.
- With that in mind, the NDP fundraising for the first three months of the year is even more abysmal than the article suggests -- presumably their numbers were slightly inflated by the fact they took 25% off all the leadership donations, and they've also (hopefully) sold memberships.
- I'm not sure what to make of the overall CPC numbers. They raised almost twice as much as the Liberals, but I think about $750k of that comes from processing fees, and the rest of the difference could be memberships sold, depending on how many memberships were sold between January and March. Still, from a LPC partisan perspective, I hope that seeing themselves so far behind the Conservatives lights a fire under them and shakes them from becoming too complacent.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I don't even remember when I read it... but it must have been around the time of the Tommy Douglas movie (still should have been Keifer in that role) or when the whole "Greatest Canadian" thing happened.
I guess no one wants to do a sweeping federal program anymore. Is national childcare still a thing?
---
Also got my soaked ballot today (thanks Toronto thunderstorm + postie who decided to walk with the mail in their hand)... after Chong, O'Toole and Raitt, I have no idea who to vote for.
If someone has a list of 4-10 that they'd want to me put on my ballot, please let me know. lol
UberTag
Member
I was waiting for the first post-O'Leary withdrawal polling to come out to complete my ballot. Seems like we now have that data although it'll be spelled out more clearly tomorrow.
Bernier is the clear front-runner. Scheer is the stopper candidate. O'Toole is who I'm backing to win because others like Chong or Raitt don't seem to have a chance... BUT they're easy to vote for because they'll likely have dropped from the race BEFORE O'Toole does given his status.
So my completed ballot will be...
1) Erin O'Toole
2) Lisa Raitt
3) Andrew Saxton
4) Michael Chong
5) Deepak Obhrai (EDITED)
6) Andrew Scheer
7) Maxime Bernier (EDITED)
The vote for Scheer at the bottom of our ballots is important because it will count against Bernier and Leitch should everyone else drop off and the ballot won't be completely spoiled. Unless, of course, you're fine with Bernier winning. I'm not because it forces me to vote Trudeau in 2019 and I can't hold him accountable for squat should I choose to do so. But others might be fine with that end result should you consider Bernier an auto-win for the Liberals and you're happy with that.
I might even throw Bernier down there in 6th on the off-chance that Leitch's pull is stronger than we all realize as it would at least weigh my ballot in his favor over her should the race be narrowed down to those two individuals.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
You're just doing 5?
Right now I have Chong, O'Toole, and Raitt. I don't know who Saxton or Scheer are, but I could rank them 4-5 since I don't really know any of them other than Obhrai for being a bit of a goofball. And Bernier I suppose. lol
Right now I have Chong, O'Toole, and Raitt. I don't know who Saxton or Scheer are, but I could rank them 4-5 since I don't really know any of them other than Obhrai for being a bit of a goofball. And Bernier I suppose. lol
UberTag
Member
It'll be anywhere from 5 to 7.
Depends on whether I want to toss Obhrai a pity vote or add Bernier at the bottom as a final check on Leitch (those Trost/Lemieux backers may all have her in 2nd or 3rd). killer rin's logic up above is sound.
I like Saxton 'cause he's a fiscal conservative (which holds a lot of appeal to me) but that's not everyone's cup of tea. He's also got no shot to win.
I do feel the Scheer votes are important at the bottom of the ballot to go against Bernier / Leitch as those are the clear Top 3 in terms of post-O'Leary polling. Just don't put him ahead of candidates you like. Consider him the anti-Bernier/anti-Leitch vote so your ballot still has value once the Chongs and Raitts of the world are bounced.
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