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SALES-AGE: Why Wii will be getting Japanese exclusives (but not Western!)

LCGeek

formerly sane
ChryZ said:
So which 3rd party title did really well, 1st/2nd party well?

Let's face it, Nintendo is the only winner here.

As if such an argument is really fair to say. The day people who use your line can show me a well developed, marketed, and budgeted this might actually be a fair argument. It was true when wii launched, when gc launched, or for that matter when n64 launch. Publishers want sales then they can market and build stuff for nintendo consumers that most of us want, funny enough it hasn't been since the snes where my 1st party out numbered my 3rd party collection.
 

LCGeek

formerly sane
Starchasing said:
Mario and Sonic at the Olimpycs

Red Steel

Rayman ravids

I already see this argument coming

But the ubisoft titles were at launch anything selss
On the subject of mario and sonic well party titles are what the platform is for
 
i think the ps3 will see its sales when its at a 200€ price (maybe in 2-3 years) and still could be nr.1 at the end of the generation but not with a huge difference like in the last gen maybe the ps3 ends up at 55 million the wii with 45 million and the 360 with 39 million
 

poppabk

Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
virtuafightermaster said:
Agree, graphic is a big part of games, sure a game can be good with only good gameplay, but why bother upgrade hardware at all. We can just stay with SNES and Genesis forever.
If DMC4 or MGS4 is Wii exclusive a lot people would be very pissed because the graphic downgrade alone.
But the upgrade has to allow you to do new things, not just make the graphics look closer to real life. The PS1 didn't just add more sprite handling capabilities and increased parallax scrolling - the increase in power allowed a move from mainly 2D games to 3D games. The increased power of the PS2 allowed for a game like GTAIII.
Things like the euphoria and DMM engines in the 360/PS3 version of Force unleashed are going to demonstrate some potential new avenues in games that are only open to the more powerful consoles.
 

Innotech

Banned
KTallguy said:
The thing is, what KIND of exclusives?

Do you want to play this:

ff03.jpg


Or do you want to play this:

final-fantasy-xiii-big.jpg


From what I've seen from Wii console exclusives, Japanese companies have been tailoring their experiences to the supposed audiences of the system.
Honestly Id rather play the wiiware game.
 

vanguardian1

poor, homeless and tasteless
All I know is that if FFXIII is anything like XII, then I want nothing to do with it.
worst FF game I have ever played

And you should at least compare Crystal Bearers instead of the 40mb download Wiiware title. :p
 

Linkup

Member
The wii got the casuals right? They're the largest userbase and they grow the quickest right? So why would anyone believe that as far as hardware numbers go wii isn't simple going to stay ahead, especially when nintendo continues to have games like wiifit and such?

Also I love it win people throw their opinion/personal tastes(not that I don't expect a little) into sales threads(wiisport shouldn't be counted, game I like is a big exclusive, etc).
 
vanguardian1 said:
All I know is that if FFXIII is anything like XII, then I want nothing to do with it.
worst FF game I have ever played

Come on, FF12 is awesome, it had weak story, character, music, but the gameplay is absolutely the best. Now, I can't stand random battle RPG anymore, I wish they can remake all FF with FF12 battle system.
 

Redd

Member
vanguardian1 said:
All I know is that if FFXIII is anything like XII, then I want nothing to do with it.
worst FF game I have ever played

. :p

Heh and I thought Square couldn't top the crap that was VIII. Well they proved me wrong and release X-2 and I would sooner play 8 and X-2 before I play the crap Square calls FFXII. So why am I so excited to play FFXIII? Because I'm a final fantasy whore unfortunately.
 
Linkup said:
The wii got the casuals right? They're the largest userbase and they grow the quickest right? So why would anyone believe that as far as hardware numbers go wii isn't simple going to stay ahead, especially when nintendo continues to have games like wiifit and such?
Uh, one major point of the thread is that 360 + PS3 > Wii in NA and many devs might look at that to decide on development. So even assuming it stays ahead I think it's a safe bet it won't get broad PS2-levels of software support.
 
Just another uninformed noob that doesn't know how to look at the big picture, so he doesn't understand or even take into consideration what the console landscape will look like over the next couple of years as the PS3 and 360 slowly march upwards to millions of units in the 20's, and then possibly 30 million+ range, while the Wii continues to skyrocket to numbers of 100 million+ units.

He also doesn't seem to understand how long development lead times take. The Wii became well known as this gen's monster, and market leader as sales continued to dominate through early to middle 2007. Developers haven't had huge profiles of Wii games in development for more than a year. We won't even start to see these big development loads start to come to fruition until this holiday season, and beyond, into 2009. It takes time to switch focus, plan and start projects, and then see them through past development to publishing and marketing. You also don't seem to realize what the 360's launch and development cycle headstart has done to manipulate the short term console landscape.

Most of the games being released now, or late last year were in development well before the Wii launched, or even was known to be such a hit. The one big main thing that is supposed to happen with big software advantages is not only not happening with the 360-- snowball effect with the installed base, but it is actually going backwards -- 8.9 million in 2006 to 7.3 million in 2007, despite also have Halo 3 and big price drops. Now look at how it has slipped to third in the last two months. Look at its horrible presence in both Europe and Japan. The 360 will be known as a system that developers could sell games on in the early part of the generation. As console sales slide, and the competition continues to go up, trends will change.

I'm sure when the Wii has an installed base in a couple of years in the 100 million range, with the 360 skidding to a halt at 30 million, then developers are going to choose the latter over the former.
 

ksamedi

Member
I think whats also an important point is that people seem to forget that big name games take atleast 2 and a half years to make, if not longer. All these big PS3 games were already in development long before the Wii even released.
 

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
PantherLotus said:
I believe that Western devs in general will be viewing the 360 and the PS3 as the same console and will be treating their audience as one, which is what this last chart shows.


Major assumptions
Assumptions do not necessarily make any of the above true or any of the below real.

[ ] That Japanese Devs value the Japanese public's buying habits over the Western public's buying habits. (and that they value money).

[ ] That *exclusive* in this context means hardcore big-name, big-budget games that are targetted toward a hardcore audience. In that assumption, we are automatically excluding every title that includes wii-exclusive content but is not itself exclusive, or other mass-market titles that don't apply specifically to the interest of this forum (Brain Age, EA Cheerleading, Ubisoft mini-game collections, etc)

[ ] That previously announced Japanese titles for specific consoles will not be switching formats if they haven't already.

[ ] That Western devs really do believe that the PS3 and 360 are the same exact audience and that developing games for them as one (or porting from one to the other) does not incur a significant enough cost to impact their development.

[ ] That NPD exact numbers are now estimates that have been rounded off where they were once provided. Do not get hung up on numbers past the one-hundred thousands.
This is the most screwed definition of "exclusive" I've ever seen. A PS3/360 "exclusive" game is any game that isn't on Wii, regardless of being multiplatform. While a Wii "exclusive" has to be truly exclusive and appeal to ones own personal tastes. I've seen plenty of people imply this definition in the past, but to see it actually spelled out and still defended is just... "WOW!"
 

kswiston

Member
poppabk said:
But how about this.
You take your $30 million spend it making a high profile game and it sells 1 million - you just lost $9 million
You take your $30 million and make 120 of your 250k games - you only need to sell ~4.5 million across all 120 games to make a profit. If each game sells a million (a money losing flop in the case of your big budget game) - you just made 840 million, 6 times as much as on your COD4 style game when it was a mega hit.
The reality of how game companies work lies somewhere in between, balancing risk, reward, market saturation, prestige, marketing expenses and a whole slew of other things

I was just demonstrating how a big bugeted game like COD4 could make more money than a ultra low budgeted game on the DS despite selling less and costing way more. Obviously real pubs don't choose one over the other. They release maybe 2-3 big budget games a year, supported by dozens of low-mid budget releases.
 

vanguardian1

poor, homeless and tasteless
virtuafightermaster said:
Come on, FF12 is awesome, it had weak story, character, music, but the gameplay is absolutely the best. Now, I can't stand random battle RPG anymore, I wish they can remake all FF with FF12 battle system.

You can keep it, the difficulty of the game was because of the battle system far more than any other factor involved. And I'd also agree about the other disappointing elements of the game. :(

Redd said:
Heh and I thought Square couldn't top the crap that was VIII. Well they proved me wrong and release X-2 and I would sooner play 8 and X-2 before I play the crap Square calls FFXII. So why am I so excited to play FFXIII? Because I'm a final fantasy whore unfortunately.

I still am a partial fan of the final fantasy franchise, but the *only* ones I'm looking at closely now are the Crystal Chronicles games as well as Tactics A2. The FF games have almost always been my main series on consoles. Thankfully for last-gen jrpg's I was saved by Skies of Arcadia, Suikoden V, Tales of Symphonia, Grandia II, Xenosaga III, and am enjoying Vakyrie Profile 2. :)
 
cortland_andrus said:
you cant see into the future so cant i. maybe one of the consoles stops selling at some point because some megaton game was released or a meteor hits nintendo and sony will be destroyed by a vulcano.
 
If some company really want to make a big name game for Wii such as VF6, Tekken 6, MGS5, DMC5 on wii. People would expect them match the greatness those games on PS3 or 360, it is just not possible given people already played those kind of games on PS360.

Only real good exclusive games for Wii will come from Nintendo only probably.
 
cortland_andrus said:
Just another uninformed noob that doesn't know how to look at the big picture, so he doesn't understand or even take into consideration what the console landscape will look like over the next couple of years as the PS3 and 360 slowly march upwards to millions of units in the 20's, and then possibly 30 million+ range, while the Wii continues to skyrocket to numbers of 100 million+ units.

There will be so many meltdowns when that starts to happen...
 
borghe said:
The bottom line is that Nintendo essentially did two things:

1. Made one of the most innovative console moves since the creation of home video game consoles

2. Made a console almost exclusively for where THEY wanted to go and not where the industry wanted to go.

I love the Wii. For me personally it is my favorite out of all three consoles. But in this day and age in the industry, and it is safe to say this after almost 1.5 years, the industry doesn't want to be forced to change. They want GTAIV to largely be like GTAIII. They want Halo3 to largely be like Halo2. And they want Rockin' High Profile Shooter Title to be like Halo3 as well. This is what sells, this is what makes money. The DS succeeded in its quirkiness because at the end of it it was still the only viable handheld (before PSP started to take hold finally). With Wii, the PS3 and 360 are still viable.

I never understood the logic. It's cheaper to develop for the Wii. In the next few months it will have the largest userbase in every territory. You would think it prints money. But the bottom line is that developers DO NOT WANT to try and figure it out. They don't want to take risks on what game mechanics will and won't work on it. They don't want to take risks on what genres will sell on it. They don't want to figure out ways to move assets down to it.

The more I think about it, the more I realize that the Wii was too much at one time. It was essentially like going from the Atari joystick to the modern day controller for most developers. They were used to one stick and a button, and Nintendo gave them two analog sticks, a dpad, 6 face buttons, 4 should buttons and rumble. Everyone thought the developers would be like "Thank you nintendo! Finally someone gave us the tools we need!" Instead developers said "Umm.... fuck that. It's cool, but we're really not going to try and figure out what to do with that."

And why? Because companies like EA, Activision, Take-Two, and Square have built their vast fortunes on releasing new versions of game engines with very little changing in the way of user interaction and play mechanics.

The Wii will end the generation a success, probably the winner, and a great machine. I'm definitely not worried. But it won't be on the backs of Final Fantasy, Madden, GTA, or Tony Hawk. The Wii will succeed because of titles like Zack and Wiki, Trauma Center, No More Heroes, PES 2008, Nintendo published titles, WiiWare, VC, etc.

And that will really be the odd thing about this generation, and far away the most alienating to many hardcore gamers. That for the first time EVER in the industry, the lead console WON'T have the monstrous 3rd party titles on it. That Square and others WON'T be shifting primary support to the hardware leader. This really has to be a scary time for them.... because in this situation it is ripe for a NEW Square, Enix, Take-Two, Activision, etc to rise up on Wii and become a major player the same way those companies did in the past. (I left out EA because they ALWAYS have their hands in everything. Who knows, it could be them?)

People have been right from the start. The Wii is 75% expansion of the industry, 25% serving the existing masses with the classics. If that expansions becomes larger than the hardcore base that currently drives the industry, we could be in for some seriously strange times.

Good post. I second that.
 

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
madara said:
FPS fans and uncanny valley polygons am cry but us jrpg players are crying as well so far. Even platformers at this point so...

Those who have a 360 aren't crying.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
I've avoided posting here because the insuing discussion is FAR greater than I could have expected and I don't want to potentially derail it with opinions that won't stand up nearly as well as analysis. Excellent posts by many here. But:

JJConrad said:
This is the most screwed definition of "exclusive" I've ever seen. A PS3/360 "exclusive" game is any game that isn't on Wii, regardless of being multiplatform. While a Wii "exclusive" has to be truly exclusive and appeal to ones own personal tastes. I've seen plenty of people imply this definition in the past, but to see it actually spelled out and still defended is just... "WOW!"

I agree actually. I'm using the accepted gafism of "exclusives" = "exclusives that matter to Gaf." The underlying assumption of ALL of those assumptions is thus:

[ ] That this analysis and definitions therein are tailored towards GAF for the purposes of discussion.



(adding to the OP)
 

birdchili

Member
there are a number of games out already that show that you can take established genres and make them work with the remote/nunchuk.

that said, for most franchises, a new version would have to be completely redone/redesigned/etc to be unequivocally *better* than the previous version.

the remote needs to be considered during basic game design: you've got to deal with possibilities of motion controls, the pointer, and a substantial reduction in accessible buttons compared to other controllers. even things like metroid, which seems like a natural fit for the pointer, needed to use some unfortunate buttons in order to keep the design similar to previous entries.
 

Lobster

Banned
ChryZ said:
So which 3rd party title did really well, 1st/2nd party well?

Let's face it, Nintendo is the only winner here.

Well according to numbers we received ages ago...

-Super Monkey Ball
-Sonic and the Secret Rings
-Rayman
-Red Steel
-Tiger Woods 07
-Madden 07
-Tiger Woods 08
-Madden 08
-Fifa 08
-Pirates of the Carribean
-Harry Potter
-Game Party
-Carnival Games
-The Bigs
-Family Ski
-Umbrella Chronicles
-RE4
-Dragon Quest Swords
-No More Heroes
-WCW
-PDC darts game
-One Piece
-Dragon Ball Z 2
-Dragon Ball Z 3

All those games have sold better than Donkey Kong Jet Race, Fire Emblem and Endless Ocean.

I'm probably missing heaps more but ye...theres a short list of 3rd party successes.

1 million sales != number for success
 

Linkup

Member
Agent Icebeezy said:
Those who have a 360 aren't crying.
really now

GitarooMan said:
Uh, one major point of the thread is that 360 + PS3 > Wii in NA and many devs might look at that to decide on development. So even assuming it stays ahead I think it's a safe bet it won't get broad PS2-levels of software support.

I was just commenting on hardware, but I agree with the point.
 

sakuragi

Banned
ksamedi said:
I think whats also an important point is that people seem to forget that big name games take atleast 2 and a half years to make, if not longer. All these big PS3 games were already in development long before the Wii even released.

So when will they release those big games for the Wii? in 2010? Resident evil 6 Wii 2010 and FF14 in 2012 confirmed :p. That is if only the Wii will last THAT long.
 

botticus

Member
I will note that the one thing that seems to be missing in the disccusion here is the case of the PS3 or 360 exclusive. If we're going to argue that Western third party games will never be exclusive to Wii due to Wii < 360 + PS3, shouldn't that mean that outside of monetary compensation, there will never be a third party game exclusive to 360 or PS3 once Wii > 360 and Wii > PS3?
 
before i bail out all i want to say is:

Look at the DS and how it evolved

When the DS and PSP were launched did anyone expect Contra 4 or Etrian odissey to be released on the DS?

What about DQ IX?


Same thing will happen to wii
 

borghe

Loves the Greater Toronto Area
Agent Icebeezy said:
Those who have a 360 aren't crying.
no offense, but a land of generic and pedestrian jrpgs ain't much better than a land of no rpgs. a little, I'll spot you that, but not much. It's akin to telling me I can only paint with white, or I can paint with both white and off-white.
 

birdchili

Member
Starchasing said:
Look at the DS and how it evolved

...
Same thing will happen to wii
so when did the ds exclusives of quality start getting announced? shouldn't we be seeing this already on the wii front? stuff like EO was released during what, the third or fourth year of the ds lifecycle? dq:ix still isn't out.
 

Neo C.

Member
Starchasing said:
before i bail out all i want to say is:

Look at the DS and how it evolved
When the DS and PSP were launched did anyone expect Contra 4 or Etrian odissey to be released on the DS?
What about DQ IX?
Same thing will happen to wii
Everytime when I argue in the same manner as you, someone will point out that we shouldn't compare handhelds to home consoles. :/
 
ChryZ said:
So which 3rd party title did really well, 1st/2nd party well?

Let's face it, Nintendo is the only winner here.

Guitar Hero 3 (Activision)
RE4:Wii, RE:UC (Capcom)
Carnival Games (Take-Two)
No More Heroes (Grasshopper/Suda51)
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega)
Rayman Raving Rabbids, Red Steel (Ubisoft)
MySims (EA)
Lego Star Wars (LucasArts)
Cooking Mama (Majesco)

Damn you Lobster.

LCGeek said:
I already see this argument coming

But the ubisoft titles were at launch anything selss
On the subject of mario and sonic well party titles are what the platform is for
So? The argument is that third parties can't find success on the Wii, and that's false.

maniac-kun said:
i think the ps3 will see its sales when its at a 200€ price (maybe in 2-3 years) and still could be nr.1 at the end of the generation but not with a huge difference like in the last gen maybe the ps3 ends up at 55 million the wii with 45 million and the 360 with 39 million
armchairANALystdoodle.jpg
 
borghe said:
no offense, but a land of generic and pedestrian jrpgs ain't much better than a land of no rpgs. a little, I'll spot you that, but not much. It's akin to telling me I can only pain with white, or I can paint with both white and off-white.

But xbox 360 has a ton of Western RPGs that are really good.
 

borghe

Loves the Greater Toronto Area
virtuafightermaster said:
But xbox 360 has a ton of Western RPGs that are really good.
the quote in my post was jrpgs.... but even western RPGs you are left with Obvlivion, Mass Effect, and again a bunch of generic pedestrian boring efforts. granted I'm not complaining. RPGs are ALWAYS slow to consoles thanks to development time of a game of such length. I was just more commenting on the attempted troll that the 360 is somehow a fountain of RPG goodness... no current gen console is.
 

vanguardian1

poor, homeless and tasteless
If you have access to a good PC, the console version of Oblivion is a complete joke. And I look forward to trying Mass Effect. :)
 
borghe said:
the quote in my post was jrpgs.... but even western RPGs you are left with Obvlivion, Mass Effect, and again a bunch of generic pedestrian boring efforts.

Sacred 2 is coming, should be very good game, Fable 2, Fallout 3 this year too. More than I can ask for. So what protential AAA RPGs are coming out for Wii this year?
 
ChryZ said:
Yeah, but that's what I asked for.

Shouldn't any of those 3rd party titles do better on a platform with a 20M user base?
Yes all 20 million Wii owners should just defy logic, taste and sense and go buy every single third party title. :lol

Seriously why do people expect third party titles to sell more then they do just because it's on the Wii.
 

DarkMehm

Member
Neo C. said:
Everytime when I argue in the same manner as you, someone will point out that we shouldn't compare handhelds to home consoles. :/

The DS had no PS3 or Xbox 360 (both have very healthy software sales unlike the PSP) as competitors, so it can't be compared.
 

LCGeek

formerly sane
BishopLamont said:
So? The argument is that third parties can't find success on the Wii, and that's false.

My post was a jest at that mentality not supporting it or reinforcing it.
 
BishopLamont said:
Guitar Hero 3 (Activision)
RE4:Wii, RE:UC (Capcom)
Carnival Games (Take-Two)
No More Heroes (Grasshopper/Suda51)
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega)
Rayman Raving Rabbids, Red Steel (Ubisoft)
MySims (EA)
Lego Star Wars (LucasArts)
Cooking Mama (Majesco)

Out of those games, I don't think any can be called big name games other than GH3 or maybe No More Heroes.

If you have Both Wii or PS360, did you buy GH3 on Wii instead of PS360?
 

ksamedi

Member
sakuragi said:
So when will they release those big games for the Wii? in 2010? Resident evil 6 Wii 2010 and FF14 in 2012 confirmed :p. That is if only the Wii will last THAT long.

I think we should expect big games in 2009 and 2010 yes. 2008 not so much maybe. There still could be some cool projects like No More Heroes or Bloom Blox but for the most part I don't expect a Final Fantasy or Metal Gear budget game to come to the Wii before 09.

And obviously, since its the most succesfull console ever, it will last that long.
 

borghe

Loves the Greater Toronto Area
ChryZ said:
Yeah, but that's what I asked for.

Shouldn't any of those 3rd party titles do better on a platform with a 20M user base?
but this stupid argument can be made for the 360 as well. :\

The fact has been pretty well illustrated that companies that have put modest efforts into development AND marketing on Wii have been rewarded with decent sales. If you don't market it or it sucks, you're not going to see sales.

And the complaint "What 3rd party games receive as strong of sales as first party" completely glosses over the related question "how many 3rd party 360 and PS3 games see as strong of sales as nintendo first party games?".

Really, the sales argument is just stupid. You get what you give. If you don't give shit for an effort you won't get shit back.

virtuafightermaster said:
Sacred 2 is coming, should be very good game, Fable 2, Fallout 3 this year too. More than I can ask for.
I count games that are out or known as being close to going gold. everything else is subject to delays.

virtuafightermaster said:
Out of those games, I don't think any can be called big name games other than GH3 or maybe No More Heroes.
But why do they have to be big names? Isn't it acceptable for NEW TITLES to have great sales also? I mean does the top 10 or top 20 really need to be packed with sequels every month in and out? Personally I don't think Capcom cares if their next million seller on Wii is RE6 or Bud's Road Trip The Game. They are in it to entertain and make money. This thought that a system NEEDS the FFs and Halos and MGSes and so forth is exactly what the Wii is eschewing as we speak. Obviously a system DOESN'T need those games to a) sell hardware and b) sell software.
 
ksamedi said:
I think we should expect big games in 2009 and 2010 yes. 2008 not so much maybe. There still could be some cool projects like No More Heroes or Bloom Blox but for the most part I don't expect a Final Fantasy or Metal Gear budget game to come to the Wii before 09.

And obviously, since its the most succesfull console ever, it will last that long.

I would believe if a game is exclusive for Wii it would be some kind of spinoff game like Soul Calibur Legend, or complete new game designed for Wii. If you expecting RE6, MGS5, NG3, not going to happen.
 

Salazar

Member
virtuafightermaster said:
Sacred 2 is coming, should be very good game, Fable 2, Fallout 3 this year too. More than I can ask for.

I want Sacred 2 to be good, but the most recent gameplay videos were just bewildering.
 
if only sega could do a sonic jumpn run in the quality of super mario galaxy and the awesomness of sonic 1 & 2... but that day will never come (but it would fit perfectly on the wii)
 
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