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Wkd BO 0714-1617 - Audiences go Ape, Sick of Spider-man and Wonder Woman (finally)?
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
Mendelson gets paid to do a worse job at box office analysis than a handful of us do here for free.
Homecoming is already $8M ahead of ASM1 after its second weekend, even though ASM1 had over $60M in the bank before the equivalent Thursday night since it opened on a Tuesday. Homecoming's second weekend was also $10M higher than ASM1's. The Dark Knight Rises opened on ASM1's third weekend, leading to a 69% drop. Yet the genius of Mendelson ignores all of that to come up with a similar domestic total to ASM1 for Homecoming because its second weekend drop was 3% higher than the MCU norm.
Homecoming is already $8M ahead of ASM1 after its second weekend, even though ASM1 had over $60M in the bank before the equivalent Thursday night since it opened on a Tuesday. Homecoming's second weekend was also $10M higher than ASM1's. The Dark Knight Rises opened on ASM1's third weekend, leading to a 69% drop. Yet the genius of Mendelson ignores all of that to come up with a similar domestic total to ASM1 for Homecoming because its second weekend drop was 3% higher than the MCU norm.
Why don't you have his job?
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Fuck, I take it back.
Yeah K, just like Dad always says, never do anything you're good at for free.
You should be paid.
Given how audiences are rejecting some of the bigger franchise plays this summer maybe a wave of great critical reception could power this to a solid opening but running straight through August.
I still say casting Harry Styles was an absolute genius level move by Nolan. He might actually get young women to show up for a WW2 film.
CrichtonKicks
Member
It's a shame- I recall he was a regular in the comments section on David Poland's blog years ago and he was always sensible and reasonable. Since going "pro" it seems like he really ramped up the trolling to guarantee clicks.
It's weird- there was a wave of articles earlier in the summer talking about how important a good RT score is becoming for Box Office success then two of the best reviewed movies of the summer, Homecoming and Apes, are now seen as under performing. It really makes Dunkirk seem very hard to predict.
I was thinking the same thing. Some of the blockbusters of years past have fizzled this summer. Even DM is down considerably at the DOM BO (less parents taking their kids).
Dunkirk is getting excellent reviews so far and has little in the way of competition heading into the weakest summer month. It could have excellent holds.
I imagine reviews have more of an effect for original movies. You probably knew months ago whether you wanted to watch Spider-Man 6 or Apes 3.
CrichtonKicks
Member
But the articles were citing franchise films- both negative (PotC and Transformers) and the positive (WW and Logan).
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I can just see a Pirates of the Caribbean 1 style run for Dunkirk.
Or at least, I can dream of it.
Or at least, I can dream of it.
OrangeAtlas
Member
As somebody mentioned before, I think it only really works if expectations were low for a particular film.
Spider-Man and Apes pretty much already had thir audiences set in stone, whereas something like Get Out or Wonder Woman caught people off guard and got tons of word of mouth and think pieces about them.
Even Logan earlier this year, despite having some of the best reviews in the whole X-Men franchise, didn't blow up the box office.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Is Homecoming really underperforming? Sure, it had a big drop, but it also had a pretty big OW. Everyone knew Sony's 80M projection was low, but it did nearly 40M over that.
The perception on this irks me. It's like people want a negative narrative.
The perception on this irks me. It's like people want a negative narrative.
I would say Spider-Man is having a stunningly average box office run.
Already started.
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/atomic_blonde_2017
Already started.
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/atomic_blonde_2017
WaffleTaco
Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
This is kind of sexist tbh.
I believe it partly comes from people who thought this was the return of the Raimi Spider-Man films in terms of BO monsters. Only add 3D and elevated ticket prices.
Also it's Spider-Man in the MCU. I believe some thought if Iron Man can do 400M DOM then so can Spider-Man.
When I said 'young women' I meant vast numbers of them. I'm not suggesting that all young women, primarily One Direction's main fan base, aren't interested in a WW2 film but the vast majority of them won't be.
It's likely that a lot of 13 yo boys won't be engaged with a WW2 film even if it is directed by the 'Dark Knight guy'.
That's what they mean by four quadrant. Young. Old. Men. Women. And Dunkirk is not a four quadrant film for that reason.
WaffleTaco
Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
Oh I know, that's why I said kinda. I'm not trying to start an argument here or try to say it was intentional. Personally, I think only older males will care about this film, if that. WW2 is overplayed I think for the general audience. Many would rather just watch Saving Private Ryan.
BronsonLee
Member
Dunkirk has that jackass who stole Sylvester Stallone's Oscar so I hope it bombs
Where's muh Atomic Blonde review thread?
I think everyone is understandably focused on Valerian and, to a lesser extent, Dunkirk.
I was gonna do it, but I don't need that abuse again
You mean Bale's or Hardy's Oscar.
MHWilliams
Member
MY take for our weekly USG column was "It's already ahead of Amazing 2. Sony wanted Marvel to rehabilitate the brand and stop the domestic revenue slide. They did."
If Homecoming hits around Spider-Man 2 and Amazing range ($780-757 million), then the job's done and we can look on to bigger and better things.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
The Bronson "Curse" is getting Baby Driver to $100M, how far can it push Dunkirk?
BronsonLee
Member
I'm the Anti-Madden
Huge MEH
On it!
EDIT: Those aren't recent, all those RT reviews are from SXSW
No worries. My review is the only one that matters anyways.
cartographer
Member
Sorry for late response. I think Iron Man 2, Iron Man 3 and Age of Ultron are worse. Maybe Dr. Strange too (though I think Dr. Strange has some redeeming qualities even if I think it's kind of dumb. It's really pretty, for one.) I think Thor 2 is probably similar to Hulk, if we're counting that.
Obliterator
Member
Yeah it's crazy. It looks like this is gonna be a contender come awards season.
I hear that Harry Styles is a surprisingly good actor? Haven't had time to read all the reviews but if so that's cool. Then again Nolan is such a good director he can probably pull a decent performance out of anyone with at least a bit of talent
With those Dunkirk reviews, I'm expecting extremely strong holds. Social media seems to have really popped in the last month plus word of mouth and weak competition
Saw the Valerian trailer next to Homecoming. It looked like batshit crazy in a good way until the leads showed up. I'd watch it for free at least.
Saw the Valerian trailer next to Homecoming. It looked like batshit crazy in a good way until the leads showed up. I'd watch it for free at least.
BronsonLee
Member
I'm going back and forth on whether to see Dunkirk in 70MM or Valerian in 3D
Dunkirk will probably be a better 'movie' and watching Hateful Eight in 70MM was cool too, but Nolan sucks eggs
Dunkirk will probably be a better 'movie' and watching Hateful Eight in 70MM was cool too, but Nolan sucks eggs
Bronson, for the first time ever, I think you've posted something that might be wrong
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
Looks like I won't be able to use the line "You either die a GOAT, or live long enough to see yourself become a bomba."
I'd like to issue a three part apology to Bobby Roberts for this post
I'd like to issue a three part apology to Bobby Roberts for this post
BronsonLee
Member
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
Bahaha
OrangeAtlas
Member
My local theater is showing Dunkirk in either IMAX or 70MM - not both.
Curse you.
Curse you.
BronsonLee
Member
The man's lost his touch!
Yo watch it in 70mm and enjoy true filmism
OrangeAtlas
Member
I saw Kong: Skull Island earlier this year in 70MM (please don't yell) and almost saw Wonder Woman too, but the screen they played it on was so tiny that it was hardly worthwhile.
The IMAX is a true IMAX screen but there's a separate listing for 70MM IMAX and it's not one of them.
But neither Kong nor Wonder Woman are 70mm films. So they would just be blown up. It's not about screen size. It's about film clarity.
You've lost your MIND
OrangeAtlas
Member
I suppose that's where my conflict comes from: smaller screen with better picture quality, or much bigger screen with better sound system.
What did he mean by this?
Member
Will Americans be able to relate to British peoples conflicts? I know I dont