Maybe? It definitely took longer for the Wii sales to wind down than anyone expected. And if that trend continues throughout the holiday season, you would probably have to consider the product Nintendo's competitors move in the same timeframe. If anything Kinect is a product that's going to attract the Wii audience and could hurt it's sales. And it's not like anyone on GAF back in 2006-2007 was predicting that Microsoft would make such a device.beast786 said:
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Is the Wii phenomenon over?
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MikeE21286
Member
Kandinsky said:
well let's be fair....3+ years
IMO there are a large group of casual adult buyers who will go from niche to niche and buy whatever gadget is popular at the moment.
I would say they went from PS2 to ipod, to Wii and smartphone and now ipad/tablet. And I dont know where they will go next.
And since these casual shoppers like to jump on the underdog bandwagon, i doubt any of the next gen console will be their target.
I would say they went from PS2 to ipod, to Wii and smartphone and now ipad/tablet. And I dont know where they will go next.
And since these casual shoppers like to jump on the underdog bandwagon, i doubt any of the next gen console will be their target.
Psychotext
Member
If I'm honest, I've pretty much got to that stage. As well as being a hardcore gamer I'm also a massive graphics whore... and I really can't stand the way Wii games look on my TV. I play some of them, but they've got to be ludicrously good for me to get over my issues with the graphics (especially the jaggies).Soneet said:
I sort of wish I still had a CRT around to play it on.
The Wii 'Phenomenon' - just as the DS phenomenon - has been over for well over a year. Wii as a viable and successful game platform is still running, but the phenomenon ended when the sell-outs/record breaking ended.
I don't get why we have to have a thread about it now though. No one has been talking about the Wii as a phenomenon for a good long while on GAF, have they? And last year Reggie said the Wii's sales had peaked.
It's a highly successful game platform. They all stop selling sometime. Even the PS2 did, and the DS will.
I don't get why we have to have a thread about it now though. No one has been talking about the Wii as a phenomenon for a good long while on GAF, have they? And last year Reggie said the Wii's sales had peaked.
It's a highly successful game platform. They all stop selling sometime. Even the PS2 did, and the DS will.
It's funny, now that the casual Wii love fest seems to be ending, the system is finally delivering a steady stream of content that appeals to me. 2010 has been one of the best years for the system and has delivered a lot of games that I've enjoyed. It still looks like shit, but the games are enjoyable enough that I can get past that. There's definitely a greater focus on core games this year than in years past. Hopefully Nintendo has still achieved success this year as I'd hate for them to see this as a misstep.
It does seem as if the Wii is following in the footsteps of the N64 and Gamecube before it. As it closes in on the end of its life the 3rd party support has all but dried up (with just a few big titles showing up to play) and Nintendo has once again become the primary source of content for the platform.
Let's not forget how much popularity N64 had out of the gate. Relative to its release time frame, it achieved a similar level of popularity while the PSX continued to hold its own (like the XBOX360, I suppose).
Gamecube had better 3rd party support than N64 but ultimately ended up in the same boat.
Now the Wii has joined the party. It was so incredibly successful out of the gate that it didn't seem possible, but they are definitely reaching that point. It's still popular, but the 3rd party support isn't really all that great.
The Wii has definitely been a huge success, but it is not the next PS2 (we don't even have such a platform this gen).
It does seem as if the Wii is following in the footsteps of the N64 and Gamecube before it. As it closes in on the end of its life the 3rd party support has all but dried up (with just a few big titles showing up to play) and Nintendo has once again become the primary source of content for the platform.
Let's not forget how much popularity N64 had out of the gate. Relative to its release time frame, it achieved a similar level of popularity while the PSX continued to hold its own (like the XBOX360, I suppose).
Gamecube had better 3rd party support than N64 but ultimately ended up in the same boat.
Now the Wii has joined the party. It was so incredibly successful out of the gate that it didn't seem possible, but they are definitely reaching that point. It's still popular, but the 3rd party support isn't really all that great.
The Wii has definitely been a huge success, but it is not the next PS2 (we don't even have such a platform this gen).
travisbickle
Member
For me, "Wii phenomena" means shitty jump around like an idiot whilst your on-screen character does shit that "resembles your actions" games. The kind of games that for some god-for-saken reason (probably too much money and a not really knowing what to buy their loved ones) made people think it was appropriate to buy the Wii as a gift for their Mum, Gran, girlfriend, <someone who hates games>, local old people's home...
And as such the "Wii phenomena" is continuing and gaining traction with Move and Kinect.
And as such the "Wii phenomena" is continuing and gaining traction with Move and Kinect.
Gram Negative Cocci
Member
civilstrife said:
Japanese numbers mean it wont ever outsell the ps2 though. I think its like less than 50k a month over there.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
The Wii is still comfortably ahead of the PS2's LTD total at the same point in its life.
We are pronouncing it dead because....
We are pronouncing it dead because....
Yes the system actually peaked in 2008 and now it's in full demand deterioration.
I think that even with a price cut...the best they can achieve is to stop further drops.
But this should not be taken as a negative thing, Wii is just a product with a peculiar market curve which was meant to boom rapidly among the casual market, then being forgotten in a few years by those same people. The fact the hardware is outdated and Nintendo has done a terrible job to provide third party and core support have helped negatively.
2012, a new Nintendo home console will rise.
I think that even with a price cut...the best they can achieve is to stop further drops.
But this should not be taken as a negative thing, Wii is just a product with a peculiar market curve which was meant to boom rapidly among the casual market, then being forgotten in a few years by those same people. The fact the hardware is outdated and Nintendo has done a terrible job to provide third party and core support have helped negatively.
2012, a new Nintendo home console will rise.
Seeing Wii is over, is like seeing Year of the PS3. It comes up many times every year. And every year, it gets shot down. Only to be pushed back to the following year.
I think if you want to say Wii isn't going be on Oprah's hot list from now on, then I would agree. But the system has sold a shitload and will continue to put up good numbers. Nintendo software still sells gangbusters too.
I think if you want to say Wii isn't going be on Oprah's hot list from now on, then I would agree. But the system has sold a shitload and will continue to put up good numbers. Nintendo software still sells gangbusters too.
wind_steaker
Member
with pikmin 3, Zelda, those RPGs they have in Japan they can translate and a few unannounced titles, I'd say we are at least 18 months out from wii 2, probably 24
SirIgbyCeaser
Banned
The time has come for the Grand turismo Phenomenon.
plagiarize
Banned
take a look at the Dolphin thread.Vigilant Walrus said:
Nintendo's first party games are already being made with HD assets, you just can't see that on your regular Wii.
Gram Negative Cocci
Member
DeaconKnowledge said:
WW or NA?
I agree though, just because the 360 and ps3 are having growth doesn't make the Wii a revisionist failure. I'm very sure anything that starts out absurdly expensive will see yoy growth as they slash hundreds of dollars off the price tag.
CadetMahoney
Member
civilstrife said:
Maybe, although we'll have to see how much steam it loses over time.Ashes1396 said:
Its not "dead" or even "dying", but yes, I think we can comfortably say things are on the downward slope and that slope will only get steeper. I think it will continue to do fine in N.A for a while (of course fine matters little for the investors- the bottom line is N.A sales will be trending down from now on), especially with another price drop, but in Japan, which I maintain is still the territory Nintendo focuses on first, it is pretty irrelevant from a software perspective.
If Nintendo didn't have the 3DS launch to be concerned with, I would bet money on a 2011 Wii successor.
If Nintendo didn't have the 3DS launch to be concerned with, I would bet money on a 2011 Wii successor.
Woffls
Member
Of course it's on the way out. It has been for a while now, and everyone saw it coming (I assume) but I never thought it would take this damn long. There will be a spike at Christmas, but I think it will be a huge drop off from previous years, leaving the annual numbers quite a lot lower.
Nintendo know they can't breathe more life into it right now, so they're giving the Nintendo core audience something to play with while they put all their efforts into 3DS. Once 3DS has released and taken over thecharts world, they will put focus on either a new console, or a reinvigoration for Wii. I'm hoping it's the former, but either way they'll already know by now which one it will be.
Nintendo know they can't breathe more life into it right now, so they're giving the Nintendo core audience something to play with while they put all their efforts into 3DS. Once 3DS has released and taken over the
plagiarize
Banned
consider this, the 3DS hardware has actually been finalised for a while. the only thing that stopped a christimas launch was that they couldn't make enough to meet deman.schuelma said:
i'm sure the hardware team is hard at work on the Wii's successor and have been for some time. i doubt the 3DS's delay has delayed the successor as well, but I don't disagree with your guess that 2011 is unlikely to be the year the Wii's successor debuts.
i do however think it is still quite possible though.
balladofwindfishes
Member
I can't believe Wii Party did so bad in the US, I was really expecting it to take off since it did well in Japan.
But I don't think the Wii is dead. I think the 360 is just having a good month. DKCR will probably give it a nice bump, and the holidays always play favorly to the Wii.
But I don't think the Wii is dead. I think the 360 is just having a good month. DKCR will probably give it a nice bump, and the holidays always play favorly to the Wii.
Cosmonaut X
Member
Fritz said:
They can "support" them in very limited terms - a dozen or so games a year on each, with a handful of major titles backed up by a selection of second- and third-tier games. They are capable of producing a decent range of high-quality titles, but that isn't enough to keep a platform going alone - they need a steady stream of high-quality games from third parties too.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Nintendo hasn't had good third party support since the N64. I don't understand why most people just decided to notice with the Wii lolCosmonaut X said:
The Wii's strongest years were those that lacked any real third party effort, while this year and last, where third party efforts have increased, have been poor years.
Amir0x said:
Erm no, the capabilities on offer prior to Kinect were limited or wasn't reason enough to invest (for the Wii audience). 360 is set to do its best numbers yet 5 years into its life, i dont see how features i mentioned will not play a significant role. Its not going to see Wii like success im pretty sure, but performing like it has so late is what im focusing on, relative to Wii.
plagiarize said:
Plus DS still has legs. A 3DS would have cut some of that off. It makes sense to get one more Christmas of maximum sales from the DS before letting the masses know it's done.
This is why even though I like Nintendo, I'm hoping the Wii numbers are below estimates this Christmas and completely die next year. It might force their hand to release the successor next fall (though I agree they probably don't want to launch two systems in one year. And they could always squeeze one more year out of Wii by dropping to 99.99).
The ideal model sees the first party throwing all its weight behind the newly launched system to build it up. Meanwhile the previous system, which already has the big base and healthy market, gets served by the third parties.Fritz said:
I don't think Nintendo will have much luck there. Whenever they stop focusing on the Wii, the Wii software market as a whole will collapse.
ShockingAlberto
Member
This topic title can be parsed differently.
Is the Wii phenomenon over?
The phenomenon is over.
I don't think the Wii is.
Is the Wii phenomenon over?
The phenomenon is over.
I don't think the Wii is.
Cosmonaut X
Member
balladofwindfishes said:
Probably because a lot of people made the same assumption (and mistake) that Nintendo did - that userbase would translate into support. It didn't, for a number of reasons.
The Wii's strongest years were early on when they delivered a succession of massively popular titles - Wii Sports, Wii Fit, MK Wii etc. - and blew their load in terms of supporting software - Twilight Princess, SMG, Super Paper Mario etc.
When they entered what seems to be a traditional Nintendo second/third-year lull, there was little there to offer the more "core" audience, and by the time Nintendo's next wave of software and more serious third-party efforts arrived it was too late.
Of course, there were other factors, but I stand by my belief that if the wave of support that hit in late-2008 and early-2009 had arrived a year earlier, we would be having a very different discussion today.
spookyfish
Member
It may have been said (didn't read the whole thread), but sure, it's possible the system is winding down. Nintendo seems to jump every five years -- whether that's the dynamic now or the 3DS has some role to play in changing that remains to be seen.
Thing is, Nintendo still has more of a price-cut card to play. Xbox and PS3, to some extent, have gained ground largely because of slashing their consoles' prices, and it's not clear how much lower they can go. Plus they've introduced some pretty pricey accessories this season.
Actually, I'm kind of surprised Nintendo didn't cut the price more this year -- maybe the inclusion of both Wii Sports and Resort is a "$50 price cut" in their eyes.
Edited because a) I'm a dumbass and b) Nintendo did indeed cut the price last year.
Thing is, Nintendo still has more of a price-cut card to play. Xbox and PS3, to some extent, have gained ground largely because of slashing their consoles' prices, and it's not clear how much lower they can go. Plus they've introduced some pretty pricey accessories this season.
Actually, I'm kind of surprised Nintendo didn't cut the price more this year -- maybe the inclusion of both Wii Sports and Resort is a "$50 price cut" in their eyes.
Edited because a) I'm a dumbass and b) Nintendo did indeed cut the price last year.
ShockingAlberto
Member
The "Nintendo cycle," as it were, is kind of hilarious when you think about it.Cosmonaut X said:
Nintendo flooded the market with first party titles to pump the userbase up to levels that third parties would feel comfortable developing for it. But the third parties saw this high userbase and then saw the sales of Brawl and Mario Kart and the like and decided they couldn't compete with Nintendo's games on Nintendo's system.
Nintendo is an awful position every console cycle, one that is not entirely of their own making, but they're certainly not blameless. They can't get a high install base without hitting the high notes and getting people on board with the system in the first place. But if they do that, third parties are unlikely to take the baton and deliver comparable content, which leaves Nintendo in a position where they're spent and unable to offer more in any reasonable time frame.
Of course, this could be worked around with better relationships with third parties, but OH WELL.
FieryBalrog
Member
The iPad is the new Wii, and I'm equally unimpressed with it.
ShockingAlberto
Member
Nintendo cut the price of the Wii to $200...last year, I think?spookyfish said:
balladofwindfishes
Member
That doesn't agree with Wii Fit, Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus, and New Super Mario Bros Wii, which all made Wii sales skyrocket in sales long after the 2006-2007 initial rush.Cosmonaut X said:
Mostly. I am sure it will still be successful during the holiday season but it no longer has the buzz it did for years. Part of the issue is Nintendo's steadfast refusal to introduce a new version of the system which as everyone knows is absolutely essential in this day and age.
A slimmer/smaller version with some added features (4-8 gig of onboard memory, a working DVD player, HDMI port for ease of use/less clutter.. I assume it doesn't HAVE to transmit an HD video signal to be usable) would have gone and still could go a very long way to improving system sales. They keep throwing in an extra game or a changed-up controller but that doesn't affect anyone who has the system now. A new system design spurs repeat buyers (I've done it with the 360 and the PS3) -- even though I haven't played my Wii more than a few hours in the last year and a half or so, I'd undoubtedly buy the new iteration.
A slimmer/smaller version with some added features (4-8 gig of onboard memory, a working DVD player, HDMI port for ease of use/less clutter.. I assume it doesn't HAVE to transmit an HD video signal to be usable) would have gone and still could go a very long way to improving system sales. They keep throwing in an extra game or a changed-up controller but that doesn't affect anyone who has the system now. A new system design spurs repeat buyers (I've done it with the 360 and the PS3) -- even though I haven't played my Wii more than a few hours in the last year and a half or so, I'd undoubtedly buy the new iteration.
DeaconKnowledge said:
Who pronounced it dead? The OP was asking about it's loss of "must have" status.
Kinect is the new thing, but there is no way it will have the same kind longterm sales momentum that the Wii enjoyed.
For personally the Wii has by far been my least used console, the wow factor ended pretty quickly when I took into account that outside of Nintendo most of the games were a steaming pile of shit.
I actually resent the thing as my wife has blocked me from using it as trade fodder back when there was some awesome deals with EBgames because the kids would be upset....but they never played the damn thing either
FieryBalrog
Member
ShockingAlberto said:
I don't think that's it. In fact, that barely makes sense; third parties saw how high sales were and thought "bail out"? Did sales need to be low? The DS manages to have amazing 3rd party support and sales while supporting premiere Nintendo franchise titles. I just think its the nature of why people bought the Wii in the first place- either as 1) a toy that they could occasionally play at parties or 2) a Nintendo system that they could play Mario on.
spookyfish
Member
ShockingAlberto said:
Whoops. Maybe I should know what I'm talking about before I post, yeah?
Thanks.
Ninja Moomin
Banned
I totally don't get this thread.
The Wii is tracking something like 25% ahead of the PS2 at this point in it's life cycle... and it continues to be a massive success. It will get a huge boost when the price is cut.
It hasn't gone from first place to last just because of MS sold a million kinects.
The system is obviously on the downward part of it's life, but i don't see Xbox outselling it any time soon in terms of total unit sales.
The Wii is tracking something like 25% ahead of the PS2 at this point in it's life cycle... and it continues to be a massive success. It will get a huge boost when the price is cut.
It hasn't gone from first place to last just because of MS sold a million kinects.
The system is obviously on the downward part of it's life, but i don't see Xbox outselling it any time soon in terms of total unit sales.
plagiarize
Banned
they seem to have fixed this with the 3DS. do you think that is in part because they *aren't* coming out with a bunch of their heavy hitters early on outside of ports?ShockingAlberto said:
the greatly improved third party situation on 3DS compare to the last three systems they launched is something i find very interesting. outside of behind doors dealings, i'm not really sure why they've been able to get the third parties supporting the system with such strength this time.
I think it's funny because I have had my Wii since launch, and I am enjoying it more now (and I have DK coming at preorder) than I have at any other point in its lifespan. As a matter of fact, it probably went at least a year without even being turned on at one point.
My friend just bought one last night and he got about 6 games with it for $300. While it's going to be sad if first party support for it is truly fading, I feel like it's time to start talking Wii2 (sorry, Reggie). The gap between the new handhelds (3DS and PSP2) and the Wii is going to be embarrassingly slim.
They need to get a system that can compete with the 360 and PS3 graphically for $300 (and has full GC and Wii backwards compatibility) and they should be able to ride out another few years of success with that before the new XBOX and PS4 come to market.
My friend just bought one last night and he got about 6 games with it for $300. While it's going to be sad if first party support for it is truly fading, I feel like it's time to start talking Wii2 (sorry, Reggie). The gap between the new handhelds (3DS and PSP2) and the Wii is going to be embarrassingly slim.
They need to get a system that can compete with the 360 and PS3 graphically for $300 (and has full GC and Wii backwards compatibility) and they should be able to ride out another few years of success with that before the new XBOX and PS4 come to market.
NinjaFusion said:
Yes, its lifetime lead is quite secure.
However, for the last couple of months at least, in total WW terms it has been outsold by both PS3 and 360. And in terms of insult upon injury, it's not because they've dramatically accelerated or anything - the leading console WW at the moment is down YoY in these last two months, in two out of the three major territories anyway. So that's quite a dramatic turnaround for a console that's sold so well to date. Of course people will talk about that.
I think this thread would be better kept til after the holidays though. There could still be a big Nov/Dec bounce.