Neo C. said:
How about this scenario:
Microsoft release XBox 1080 in the end of 2011, with a modest upgrade of three to four times the performance of 360. This means signifikant better performance than the PS3. If they include 2GB RAM (not that much for 2011), 1080p shouldn't be a problem. And the console would still only cost 300$ or less.
Graphic doesn't matter? Well, I think so. Still developers could port any PS3 game easily.
Though the real advantage is the overall package: Microsoft could add an improved gamepad or several different controllers (wiimote-likes included?) to define a new standard.
Whenever you bring a new console on the market, you can define your product in a new way. I don't think Microsoft and Sony would let Nintendo reign more than 5 years, 6 years max.
From this i don't see why MS would make 1080 in 2011.
3-4 times better? That's close to Crysis on max settings. People who need that already play it )
I mean, seriously who would even care about 360 with 3-4x more power? Couple of millions graphics junkies? Nobody will be able to explain to mass consumer the need to pay money for this.
I see the opposite -- i see the need to make a new console when performance will increase 100x times at least. When nobody will even care about polygons, textures etc and the need to get stable framerate. When technology will reach the point when to make extraordinary graphics would only be the point of budget but not technology. That day ain't close.
And control options -- no way. Wii is successful only because Nintendo made console
COMPLETELY around new controls. They sent clear message to everyone that there is a new way to play games and it is accessible to everyone. They made games for this controls and market them and the new control method.
If Sony or MS would be able to add waggle and emulate Nintendo's success they would do so, but they can't because it requires a lot of resources that need to be spent on their consumer.
Now people who think that we will see
ps4 console in 2011...
I mean... how do you justify that?
That does not make sense from any point.
PS3 emerged 6.5 years after ps2. Sony listened only to themselves and released console at the point when they were able to update every single component inside.
CPU/GPU with high-end 1080p capability/physical format of media/HDD/wireless communication/internet/controller.
Current price, current state of technology when at least 3/4 of consumers cant even see/hear what ps3 is capable of leads only to
longer cycle not shorter.
Maybe even more important than
price are difficulties in
reducing it. Mandatory HDD for next-gen experience at this point is simply impossible to reduce in price. You can't throw a lot of other things like wireless communication and HDMI.
And that's 8 years at the absolute minimum. That's 2014.
Now who would release a console in 2011? For what? To tell developers to do games for that console and not ps3/360/wiiHD/pc when all of the consoles enjoy their (sub)$199 mass consumer friendly price? I just don't see that.
MS/Sony new exactly this was a long haul. That's why they built $500-800 consoles to reach point when consumer will not care for anything else. And I think it is better for anybody. Nobody will fear emerging next-gen to just throw away everything they know when only they started to get a hand of current technology and making really great games.
360/ps3 are at least $3B (that's $5B for ps3)
investments. And both companies will see the point when this investments will generate profit for them. Releasing new console will only axe that plan.