entremet
Member
Would the EU negotiate with an independent Catalonia if they do secede successfully?
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Catalan Independence Referendum(1-O) - The aftermath
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Would the EU negotiate with an independent Catalonia if they do secede successfully?
It's not dumb, it's a very common tactic used in referendums where a lower turnout might be more important that a higher "No" share. Like in this case.
Camaway2
Member
The legal framework between Scotland and the UK is very different from the one in Catalunia and Spain, not considering the fact that the tax flow goes in the opposite direction.
Regginator
Member
Except in this case 42.4% is a pretty okay turnout, so the anti-independence shot themselves in the foot.
ClosingADoor
Member
They get less back then they pay in. But to me as an outsider that seems perfectly normal, since in every country the richer regions pay more then the poorer ones.
Depends I think. If the EU recognizes Catalonia, there would be talks. But letting them actually join is another story. I mean, we have "talks" with Turkey for about 3 decades now. Of course Catalonia would already fit most EU regulation. But that does not mean the other countries would want them to join. Plus, every single country has a veto over it, including Spain.
Yeah I know. I also know pro independence people since I was a kid.
The referendum was illegall and it had not enough warranties, especially from No voters.
Alot of people of no voters want a referendum, but one with enough warranties for them. The problem is that right now it's not possible without pacting with Spanish gov (and they don¡'t want to).
That Catalonia is 50/50 split in independence is pretty much a fact.
AuthenticM
Member
assuredly. Catalonia wouldn't be ignored. It's not like Spain is this political or economic power that can intimidate everyone.
Diprosalic
Banned
no they didn't. they don't see this as a legitimate referendum and by participating they would help legitimize it. the referendum was illegal, it would make no sense for them to participate.
Theonik
Member
Because the status quo isn't working and never really has arguably. But if you're talking states, then the desire of the governed to be governed is probably a good rule of thumb usually.
Spain has a veto on new members joining the EU.
It is a terrible turnout for such an important decision. These kinds of things need a proper threshold in order to be representative.
Why didn't the Spanish govt fuel the flames here?
Going full Franco on Catalonia when ignoring the referendum would have worked just fine. At this rate, the actions of Madrid may well have pushed the Catalonian region from agitation for independence to actually pushing towards it. The vote wasn't going to be recognised by anyone.
A complete farce and totally avoidable. All because Rajoy would rather send the police in the prove a point. A point now completely lost.
Going full Franco on Catalonia when ignoring the referendum would have worked just fine. At this rate, the actions of Madrid may well have pushed the Catalonian region from agitation for independence to actually pushing towards it. The vote wasn't going to be recognised by anyone.
A complete farce and totally avoidable. All because Rajoy would rather send the police in the prove a point. A point now completely lost.
Unionist parties asked their supporters to boycott the election.
This why a legal referendum needs to be scheduled by the national government. People need to know exactly what will happen. A border will be placed and membership in the EU will not be granted. The precedential import of how the EU handles this is critical to the future of the member nations of the EU. Off the bat I can think that France, Italy, Belgium, and maybe Holland would be opposed to admitting Catalonia on their own because of their separatists movements.
deathkiller
Member
The biggest party/coalition in the Catalan Parliament that is in favor of a vote but not directly in favor of independence voted against the referendum law. It was not just a vote for independence the organizers had already approved a mini-constitution in case they won.
It's a terrible turnout for a life changing decision.
You clearly don't understand any of the context to these events if you think most of those against the independence of Catalonia were ever gonna participate in this referendum.
This ignorance specially shows when you claim to side with the Catalans as if they were a monolithic entity and not an evenly split society. Or not so evenly. They way it is perceived by many there is that half of their neighbors are seeking political and economic suicide, another Transnistria in Europe, via an illegal process lacking any democratic guarantees and they want no part of it.
His Majesty
Banned
Don't know about Belgium. The largest government party is pro-separatist and is clearly in support of Catalan independence. This is also the reason why Belgium is the only country whose head of state clearly condemned the Spanish violence. But I'm not sure if they are willing to risk a government crisis over it.
Elfotografoalocado
Banned
In short, yes. But this goes back in time. The minds of PP politicians and of their hardline supporters are unable to comprehend a territorial model where the autonomies (And especially Cataluña) enjoy self-governance and use their own language. And they spend most of their time undermining the progress that has been done and most importantly spewing lots of bullshit and hatred to muddy the political and civil landscape. That a populist would thrive in this is unsurprising, because up to a point they are right. PP hates Cataluña.
Thank you!
My mother is a Spaniard and in speaking with family back in Spain, they all seem pretty nervous about how things will turn out. We are having a hard time seeing a positive outcome in the near future. There is no doubt things will be worse if Catalonia does declare independence, plus I can only imagine the Basques will be next if they are successful. Spain's already fragile economy is going to be much worse off losing their richest region, and possibly their second richest.
I'm really sad by the heavy handed response by the government on Sunday. You could easily reject the results of the referendum without all the images and videos of beating citizens in the streets that only gives the separatists more fuel for their movement. I'm also sad about the long term implications this has on Spain and Europe as a whole.
I'm really sad by the heavy handed response by the government on Sunday. You could easily reject the results of the referendum without all the images and videos of beating citizens in the streets that only gives the separatists more fuel for their movement. I'm also sad about the long term implications this has on Spain and Europe as a whole.
deathkiller
Member
PP hates anyone who doesn't vote for PP. I mean, they love Valencia so the issue is not language/culture.
The EU told Scotland that if it left the UK they would need to join the back of the queue and apply like everyone else.
Can't imagine this would change for Catalonia.
User123456
Member
That would not necessarily mean independence is legitimate. It's a massively life-changing decision, doing it with just 51% would essentially be a dictatorship of the majority. In the end you have to protect the rights of the minority as well.
I wouldn't see anything lower than a two-thirds majority as legitimate in terms of secession, and even then it's a hard decision to make.
ClosingADoor
Member
5.3 million people eligible to vote. 2 million + possible 700.000 in favor = 2.7 million. That is not even a 1% margin. Very hard to justify declaring independence with those numbers.
Acidote
Member
They get less back then they pay in. But to me as an outsider that seems perfectly normal, since in every country the richer regions pay more then the poorer ones.
Andalusia having that balance is fucking vile considering it's one of the poorest regions in the country. Paying proportionally more than richer regions. Pure stupidity.
Yeah, pretty much.
Plus, don't you need a unanimous vote from all EU counties in order to join? If that's the case, I imagine Spain will block any attempt for the Catalans or Basques from ever joining if they do leave. Plus, I'm sure other counties who have their own issues with separatist movements could vote no to send a message that any regions of their counties that leave would face the same fate in attempting to gain EU membership.
ReplacementPelican
Member
Not sure if I agree. In their view, if they turned out then it legitimatizes the vote. They don't believe the vote is legal so why would they participate?
Though, I'd be interested to see if support has changed since the police action. I mean, I do worry that in some countries like the US, politics is so divided and vitriolic that if, for instance, a group of liberals did something like this and got beaten to shit, the right would applaud it and not care (or vice versa) so I do hope that pro-remain Catalans still see this brutality for what it is and not support for their side.
I agree, I just wrote that because I didn't see it in the other thread (I might have missed it).
Anyway, I still believe they are just trying to get more autonomy, gonna start some form of negotiation in order to get more money.
What's worse, and shows how incredibly much the central government is fucking this up. We didn't even have the numbers when the Catalan government already very strongly hinted that nothing stops this train and to expect the declaration soon. Now, the question that arises is, are they doing it because the whole thing is a sham, or because the individuals at the helm of Catalonia are by now so harshly legally and politically threatened that they see no other exit but riding this wave regardless of what their constituents think? Both? Neither? Yesterday was the time for diplomacy. What we're heading into, who knows what it will be like.
I have no horse in this race. I understand both positions, I believe. My best friend is Catalonian and an independentist and we've had more heated political debates talking about our choices in New Vegas (seriously). The one thing I've always been wary of is of this thing turning into another Yugoslavia whoever's fault it may be, and at this point the one thing saving us is the Catalonian government (hopefully) not having stockpiled military grade weaponry in secret. But I definitely can see Spanish tanks rolling on their streets soon unless someone hits his head climbing out of bed one morning and decides to radically alter their agenda going forward.
And like I said, we still have to listen to Catalonian politicians going out on TV saying that we spend their money at the bar instead of working.
You're almost literally talking out of your ass now. I mean, I'm sure it's not literal but I can't imagine it any other way.
Unless Catalonia is gonna pay the UKs share in EU budget i don't really see a positive for them joining but a lot of negatives for the EU
Catalonia could only hope to apply for EU membership if Spain was out of the EU. One veto and Catalonia can't join.
Catalonia will be economically crippled if they really secede.
1. The national spanish corporation would have to move to spanish grounds
2. Every EU corporation that has headquarters in catalonia must move to spanish or other EU grounds.
3. Spain would Certainly embargo catalonia
4. no benefit, social, unemployment or pension pay from spain to catalonian citizens.
5. maybe EU embargo on Catalonia
7. And of course, the referendum is illegal, so Catalonia can only secede with a declaration of war.
Catalonia will be economically crippled if they really secede.
1. The national spanish corporation would have to move to spanish grounds
2. Every EU corporation that has headquarters in catalonia must move to spanish or other EU grounds.
3. Spain would Certainly embargo catalonia
4. no benefit, social, unemployment or pension pay from spain to catalonian citizens.
5. maybe EU embargo on Catalonia
7. And of course, the referendum is illegal, so Catalonia can only secede with a declaration of war.
Why would Spain let them join?
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Then you aren't paying any attention at all.
Which is par with the course in this whole mess.
The biggest problem is not even the referendum, but the fact that the Catalonian government was determined to launch an unilateral declaration of independence even before the referendum. To this point they engineered an spurious vote rife with irregularities in which the separatist side could only succeed.
Even if you exclude the Spanish Constitution and the legal argument the entire process is is a complete disaster. The Catalonian government went all the way to organise it, even if that meant breaking its own rules. Which it did plenty of times.
The usual retort is to claim that Rajoy could have negotiated a proper referendum and avoid this mess. That's a logical trap. It's simply not true. Article 2 of the Constitution makes that impossible. For that the current Spanish government, which doesn't even have the numbers to pass a new budget by itself, let alone pass critical legislation (or the will to entertain the separatist side), would have needed to rebuild the Constitution so Spain would have to aknowledge that its regions can simply break away after a vote. That's basically a non starter, not just for Spain, but basically for any country. And the separatist side knew it, so knowing that Rajoy would act like the malignant fool that he is, hastened a referendum, fingers crossed for a confrontation. At the end of the day, this is about a local government declaring itself in rebellion. No country is ever going to agree to that.
And it's not like Catalonian government is acting in representation of the majority of the population anyway.
According to the official numbers of the Catalonian government before the referendum only a minority of Catalonians (around 41% or so) wanted the break away from Spain. The 49% was on the remain side and wanted none of this.
Despite this, the Catalonian government decided to rally the masses, claiming that they were being silenced and hastened a referendum that was anything but democratic. Puigdemont and his allies made a mockery of the requirement of neutrality by continously campaigning for the "yes" side, used the resources of the government towards the same aims and mounted a process enterely ran by the separatist side. There were no guarantees of any kind, next to no supervision and no proper census. The census, as a matter of fact, is my favourite bit regarding this event, as the Catalonian government declared a "universal census". This means that anybody could vote anywhere. Thus the hilarity:
That table comes from a partial source so I had to check if it was true. As far as I've seen, it is. A number of small towns in inner Catalonia, where the separatist movement is the strongest, had more people voting for independence than their actual population, let alone the voting census. Espinelves is particularly brazen, as the "yes" campaign obtained 527 votes in a small town of 156.
The numbers for each locality can be checked using the official results at La Vanguardia and the site of the institute of statistics of Catalonia.
Even if we are to accept the explanation of those tiny towns in profoundly pro-independence regions receiving such an aberrant amount of "yes" votes because of the police closing down a number of polling stations elsewhere, it goes on to show that the numbers cannot be trusted at all. As a matter of fact, the Catalonian government has yet to provide the full results three days after proclaiming the victory of the separatist side. They are using percentages and color bars instead now. Because that is something acceptable and not odd at all.
Yet here we have the separatist-led Catalonian government, using a referendum with no requirement for a minimum turnout yet binding with a simple majority, rife with damning irregularities, no guarantees, no neutrality, conducted in a state bordering on civil unrest (which can be partly blamed on Rajoy, no doubt about that) and violating the terms of the Venice Commission to proclaim what will probably be an unilateral declaration of independence. That is some nation building right there.
I mean, Rajoy should be in jail. He's been my most despised acting politician since the 11-M and I've actually made threads about it, but acting like the Catalonian government is being treated unfairly here or that there are no arguments against the referendum outside of the legalese regarding the Spanish Constitution... well... it's brazen, to say the least.
This is a sectarian confrontation spurred by two governments (Barcelona and Madrid) with barely enough political support to stay afloat, yet acting like they are absolute rulers with no regard towards half (and more) of their respective populations. Both Rajoy and Puigdemont need to go so we can right the situation.
The problem here is that Rajoy believes that this is going to reinforce his pathetic popularity in the rest of Spain (it won't).
jackissocool
Member
now this I could get behind
http://www.politico.eu/article/catalonia-independence-spain-support-for-drops-poll/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...collision-course-with-spain-independence-vote
Why is it extremely stupid for voters to boycott an unofficial vote and face arrest and violence for participation?
User123456
Member
Holy shit Funky Papa. 100% right on the money.
As a foreigner, I don't think that independence is a good idea. However, the Spanish government couldn't have managed things worse.
The only solution I see is the resignation of Rajoy, a formal apology from the central government and the monarchy and the organization of a binding referendum in one or two years, to let things cool down a bit and let people make a rational decision.
Still, I think that Rejoy screwed up and there might not be a good exit out of this.
The only solution I see is the resignation of Rajoy, a formal apology from the central government and the monarchy and the organization of a binding referendum in one or two years, to let things cool down a bit and let people make a rational decision.
Still, I think that Rejoy screwed up and there might not be a good exit out of this.
psychowave
Member
Funky Papa the GOAT
(but Felipe also needs to go right after Rajoy and Puigdemont tbh)
(but Felipe also needs to go right after Rajoy and Puigdemont tbh)
Seriously, why would Spain agree to a official referendum at all? There are no laws, which could be used to split one part of Spain. Any kind of independent referendum is illegal by law from the get go. Also why should Spain agree in the first place, the Catalan have nothing to offer or anything to threat Spain with. Unless they want to declare war. Democratic works through laws, you can't just make some up, just because many people in one area agree on something (unless it's okay by law).
So saying, that Spain just should have given them a referendum is impossible and would be stupid anyway.
If nothing changes, we will have a civil war on Monday and this going to be ugly ... Let's hope, this is just a chicken race.
So saying, that Spain just should have given them a referendum is impossible and would be stupid anyway.
If nothing changes, we will have a civil war on Monday and this going to be ugly ... Let's hope, this is just a chicken race.
To quell internal unrest and discredit the independence movement as a vocal minority.
Worked so well in the UK. Again there are no laws, which the referendum could be used on. The government would need to build one and then every part of Spain could use it ... It would destroy the country in the long run.
AuthenticM
Member
well never mind then!
Of course my post meant to say Did instead of Didnt.
Lots of people have been comparing this to Scotland but frankly, the independence referendum there was the model of democracy in comparison.
I dont really need to say much other than this is a case of sectarianism parading as legitimate cessation. The separatists goaded the government into this and Rajoy fell for it.
It wont be this week like Puigdemont wants but the events of this referendum may well split Spain forever. If so, we only have one person to blame.
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