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McHuj
Member
(09-21-2017, 03:09 PM)
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Originally Posted by foxbeldin

Yeah 8TF 3 years after the X would be quite underwhelming. Hoping for 10-12 but i guess Matt will shut me down on that?

I think anything in the 10-15 range is doable.

Doubling the raw performance of XBX on a newer node with a newer architecture is not an unreasonable expectation.
Shin
Member
(09-21-2017, 03:57 PM)
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Originally Posted by foxbeldin

Yeah 8TF 3 years after the X would be quite underwhelming. Hoping for 10-12 but i guess Matt will shut me down on that?

It would considering a new GPU architecture and several nodes and/or years further.
Obliterator
cousin investments
(09-21-2017, 04:02 PM)
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The main game changer for next gen will be CPU related not GPU.

Bulldozer cores have held back a lot of design decisions this generation. It's the main reason people comment on this gen being last gen "but only prettier".

Those CPUs have affected some of the gameplay evolution we were hoping to see
Matt
Member
(09-21-2017, 04:06 PM)
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Originally Posted by foxbeldin

Yeah 8TF 3 years after the X would be quite underwhelming. Hoping for 10-12 but i guess Matt will shut me down on that?

Why would I? Thatís a much more reasonable range.
daveo42
Banned
(09-21-2017, 04:16 PM)
I'm still sticking with the Holiday 2019 release for the next Playstation console. A switch to upgrades ever 3-4 years from Sony to keep pace with tech. Hope is cross-gen compatible releases between the Pro and 5 with the standard 4 to be phased out at some point after that.

I wonder if that time table will be slid around based on reception on the X1X along with pushes from the tech side (8k) and developers wanting more horsepower and a better CPU.
RoboPlato
I'd be in the dick
(09-21-2017, 04:17 PM)
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I think a 12 tf GPU paired with a much more capable CPU would be fantastic in a console, especially as reconstruction techniques evolve.
Servbot24
Banned
(09-21-2017, 04:20 PM)
I agree with 2020.

I say stretch PS4's lifespan as long as possible. I don't want to have to waste another several hundred dollars.
chaosmaster(1)
Member
(09-21-2017, 04:26 PM)
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I agree with 2020. I think both Sony and MS will launch that year. It seems like with Zen CPU coming into the picture the gameplay experience is really going to benefit from it. I think 12 TF GPU and maybe 24gb of GDDR6 ram. I wonder if 399 will be the price going forward or if 499 will become the default based on tech.
DriftingSpirit
Member
(09-21-2017, 04:40 PM)
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Just wait as long as possible in order to get the best possible tech configuration for $399. That is all I want.

CPU CPU CPU!
onQ123
Junior Member
(09-21-2017, 04:51 PM)
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At least 20 TFLOPs fp16
jroc74
Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
(09-21-2017, 04:57 PM)
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Originally Posted by Dabanton

Pro becoming default? As much as I'd love that, normal PS4 owners would rage.

My only concern is that Sony doesn't wait too long. late 2020 seems just about right.

Although I imagine one concern for them is how to handle 'price sensitive' people who want top of the line power and graphics for cheap prices. Somethings got to give and I think the machine for the power we'll get will be considerably more pricey than usual.

Why rage?

It would be a new gen. Either they get the PS5 or the PS4 pro. Which should be cheaper by then.

I don't see the problem.

Didn't revisions to PS3 and 360 become the default system?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
(09-21-2017, 04:57 PM)
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Originally Posted by Obliterator

The main game changer for next gen will be CPU related not GPU.

Bulldozer cores have held back a lot of design decisions this generation. It's the main reason people comment on this gen being last gen "but only prettier".

Those CPUs have affected some of the gameplay evolution we were hoping to see

What types of gameplay decisions?

The Cell was extremely powerful, but we didn't really see that many games that couldn't be done gameplay wise on the GameCube or Xbox.
Lord of Castamere
Member
(09-21-2017, 04:58 PM)
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I wish I could believe 2020. Would make biting a pro easier. Idk. I don't think MS is in a rush, especially if XBX sells, and Sony definitely isn't. So maybe.
Toni
Member
(09-21-2017, 05:04 PM)
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Originally Posted by RoboPlato

I think a 12 tf GPU paired with a much more capable CPU would be fantastic in a console, especially as reconstruction techniques evolve.

Not if you guys want this to be $399 at release and turning a profit in day one.

Sony went with the shittiest Cpu possible for PS4 so it could be cost effective and profitable from the get go.

They will tackle next-gen with the same trajectory in mind.

People overlook the fact that the PS4 has made sublime amounts money this gen. More than any previous PlayStation. They have to make sure their succesor meets or exceeds that next gen.
Matt
Member
(09-21-2017, 05:08 PM)
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Originally Posted by Toni

Not if you guys want this to be $399 at release and turning a profit in day one.

Sony went with the shittiest Cpu possible for PS4 so it could be cost effective and profitable from the get go.

They will tackle next-gen with the same trajectory in mind.

The PS4 has made sublime amounts money this gen. More than any previous PlayStation. They have to make sure they repeat that and/or surpass it next gen.

Thatís not really what happened.
Toni
Member
(09-21-2017, 05:08 PM)
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Originally Posted by Matt

Thatís not really what happened.

Well, thanks for letting me know.
onQ123
Junior Member
(09-21-2017, 05:28 PM)
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PS4 Pro will never become the standard PS4 because the base PS4 will just get cheaper & there will always be people who go for the lowest hanging fruit.
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
(09-21-2017, 05:29 PM)
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seems our fellow baby reads my posts! but seriously 2020 is my bet and yeah pro wont be the default ps4
Markitron
Is currently staging a hunger strike outside Gearbox HQ while trying to hate them to death
(09-21-2017, 06:05 PM)
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Agree with 2020, disagree with the Pro becoming the default PS4.
gogosox82
Member
(09-21-2017, 06:06 PM)
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Originally Posted by SwiftDeath

GTAVI Release Date + 1 Year

I don't see another gta getting made for at least another 5 years. Don't think the PS4 has enough legs for that.
CarbonFire
Member
(09-21-2017, 06:31 PM)
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Originally Posted by gogosox82

I don't see another gta getting made for at least another 5 years. Don't think the PS4 has enough legs for that.

Naw, I think we'll see the same thing we saw last gen. The new GTA gets released right before the new consoles ship (2020), then they'll "remaster" GTA VI for the PS5 and XBNext the following year for all those sweet, sweet double-dipping dollars. GTA V would have never reached anywhere close to 80 million sold had they not spread it across 2 generations. They'd be fools not to do it again.
Renegade Frost
Banned
(09-21-2017, 06:45 PM)

Originally Posted by Elfotografoalocado

I think PS4 is going to be with us for quite a long time still. Hardware improvements are getting harder and more expensive to accomplish with the death of Moore's Law. AAA videogames (The ones that create demand for more powerful hardware) are getting more and more bloated with ever increasing budgets and an unsustainable work culture that is driving engineers away to other fields. We have reached a point where current consoles can run most conceivable videogames outside of super-complex simulations that wouldn't be that fun to play. (And very expensive to create)

In such a context, why not keep a console that can provide access to base versions of games for people with little money, and make a PS5 with a powerful CPU for high framerate and pretty graphics versions of the same games?

Money.

Incrementalism

Innnnnoooovation

Toys./
Elandyll
Banned
(09-21-2017, 06:55 PM)

Originally Posted by onQ123

PS4 Pro will never become the standard PS4 because the base PS4 will just get cheaper & there will always be people who go for the lowest hanging fruit.

This, plus there is an implicit contract with PS4 buyers that no game released with the tag 'PS4' on it would ever be incompatible.

The PS4 will chug on as the cheap entry level PS4, the Pro is imo the one that might get scrapped within 2 years as it would end up sandwiched between the $149/$199 PS4 and a (hopefully) PS4 compatible PS5 at $399 in 2019/ 2020.
redfox088
Member
(09-21-2017, 07:14 PM)
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I don't understand why people think this gen will be shorter than the last. I actually think it will be just as long. 2020-2021 release.
RoboPlato
I'd be in the dick
(09-21-2017, 07:17 PM)
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Originally Posted by Toni

Not if you guys want this to be $399 at release and turning a profit in day one.

Sony went with the shittiest Cpu possible for PS4 so it could be cost effective and profitable from the get go.

They will tackle next-gen with the same trajectory in mind.

People overlook the fact that the PS4 has made sublime amounts money this gen. More than any previous PlayStation. They have to make sure their succesor meets or exceeds that next gen.

A 12tflops GPU paired with a laptop variation of Ryzen would not be outlandish in 2020.
Marmelade
Member
(09-21-2017, 07:49 PM)

Originally Posted by Toni

Sony went with the shittiest Cpu possible for PS4 so it could be cost effective and profitable from the get go.

Sony and Microsoft went with Jaguar because that's all AMD had to offer.
They both were pretty underwhelmed by its performance.
General Lee
Member
(09-21-2017, 08:16 PM)
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Originally Posted by RoboPlato

A 12tflops GPU paired with a laptop variation of Ryzen would not be outlandish in 2020.

It could be made, but that would likely go beyond $500. More so if there's other new components like a faster hybrid drive or cache for storage. I doubt they're willing to ditch optical drive yet either. Of course if we're talking holiday 2020, things might be better by then. Technically I could see holiday 2019, but the cost of components is a big issue.

My guess is at least MS will go for a more expensive device for next gen, perhaps something that could also double as a mid-range gaming PC with W10 virtual machine. So it would be more of a compute device for the whole home, streaming to multiple displays. Sony on the other hand is more likely to keep to a typical dedicated game console. I still think they're unlikely to go below $500 since Ryzen will be considerably more expensive than the age old Jaguar, and that'll eat into how much they can spend on GPU and other components.

Depending on how AMD's Infinity Fabric works out, they might be able to connect an external GPU with it without major multiGPU complications for game devs. Theoretically Sony/MS could offer an add-on that could double the GPU power for those willing to pay from day one, and perhaps build that in later instead of making a Pro model. Of course I'm not sure if this is actually something feasible.
Bitch Pudding
Member
(09-21-2017, 08:20 PM)
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Originally Posted by Marmelade

Sony and Microsoft went with Jaguar because that's all AMD had to offer.
They both were pretty underwhelmed by its performance.

May I ask why people are optimistic that AMD is able to come up with an overwhelming (or at the very least not underwhelming) console CPU next time? Seriously asking, I really have no idea if AMD offers more bangs for the buck nowadays.
Papacheeks
Junior Member
(09-21-2017, 08:46 PM)
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Originally Posted by Bitch Pudding

May I ask why people are optimistic that AMD is able to come up with an overwhelming (or at the very least not underwhelming) console CPU next time? Seriously asking, I really have no idea if AMD offers more bangs for the buck nowadays.

Ryzen cpu's using Zen architecture have shaken up the CPU landscape, so much intel felt pressure and put out a product that was half baked.

Six Core/8 core are now coming out that are very affordable and have good IPC for gaming.
So if and when AMD develops their APU line with zen architecture it could mean great things for consoles. Especially if the Ryzen cpu's for laptops turn out great that will be a good indicator for what they could be looking at for consoles.

Way more powerful, less TDP, and easily scalable makes them a good choice if they can make a chip that will fullfill both needs on cpu/GPU.
Separate chips are according to some gone for console setups, all on one dye is where they would be looking, because of heat/voltage and space.

What we have to wait for is Zen APU's to start showing up and getting tested on games to at least get a basic understanding of their compute ability in a gaming environment.
00ich
Member
(09-21-2017, 08:53 PM)
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Originally Posted by Bitch Pudding

May I ask why people are optimistic that AMD is able to come up with an overwhelming (or at the very least not underwhelming) console CPU next time? Seriously asking, I really have no idea if AMD offers more bangs for the buck nowadays.

They just released a overall well received and fast CPU-line introducing their brand new Zen cores. That was coming after years following the introduction of the largely unsuccessful Bulldozer architecture in 2011 and it's equally unsuccessful series of iterative refinements (Piledriver, Steamroller, Excavator).
All which culminated in AMD announcing no longer pursuing high-end CPUs.
The Jaguar cores in the PS and Xbox are low-power offerings from that time. Expect a Zen core to be about 3 times as fast as a Jaguar core.
GearFourth
Banned
(09-21-2017, 08:57 PM)
Should be $499 not $399 can more futureproof it that way
The God
Member
(09-21-2017, 09:04 PM)

Originally Posted by jroc74

Why rage?

It would be a new gen. Either they get the PS5 or the PS4 pro. Which should be cheaper by then.

I don't see the problem.

Didn't revisions to PS3 and 360 become the default system?

PS3 revisions were not more powerful than the original. You're talking about breaking compatibility between the two PS4s, which Sony told customers they weren't gonna do
Bitch Pudding
Member
(09-21-2017, 09:17 PM)
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Originally Posted by The God

PS3 revisions were not more powerful than the original. You're talking about breaking compatibility between the two PS4s, which Sony told customers they weren't gonna do

I do not think Pachter suggested that Sony is going to break compatibility between the two PS4s, as in Sony is going to introduce PS4 Pro-only games. Pachter just said that PS4 Pro might become the new baseline / default PS4 system being sold, if Sony is able to offer it for $250.

Thing is, if they manage to offer a PS4 Pro at cost for $250, they'd be able to sell a Slim PS4 for $199 and still make a noticable profit, which is why basically no one believes the Pro will become the new entry-level PlayStation system once the PS5 arrives.
onQ123
Junior Member
(09-21-2017, 09:28 PM)
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Y'all still looking at the GPU flops as if it's the only thing that matter but I think it will be the changes to the GPU hardware that really make a difference so I wouldn't look at a 10 - 12 tflops console as if it's a 10 - 12 tflop GPU from a year ago.
Falchion
Member
(09-21-2017, 09:48 PM)
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I'm all about pushing the new generation as far back as possible so that it's as worthwhile an upgrade as possible.
Inuhanyou
Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
(09-21-2017, 09:49 PM)
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Originally Posted by 00ich

They just released a overall well received and fast CPU-line introducing their brand new Zen cores. That was coming after years following the introduction of the largely unsuccessful Bulldozer architecture in 2011 and it's equally unsuccessful series of iterative refinements (Piledriver, Steamroller, Excavator).
All which culminated in AMD announcing no longer pursuing high-end CPUs.
The Jaguar cores in the PS and Xbox are low-power offerings from that time. Expect a Zen core to be about 3 times as fast as a Jaguar core.

And remember, that 3x number is just in regards to basic IPC differences putting them side by side in the exact same conditions. Zen would allow much higher clocks, and that's not even mentioning the architectural improvements from first generation zen to proceeding generations
teh_pwn
"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
(09-21-2017, 09:52 PM)

Originally Posted by HStallion

What kind of specs could we realistically expect for, lets say $400 PS5 in 2020?

AMD Zen v2-v3 4-6 core around 2.8-3.2 GHz, GPU around the nVidia GTX 1080 area, but obviously cheaper and lower power due to die shrinks and architecture improvements, 500 GB SSD standard. Decent upgrade, should handle 4K with today's max settings at 30 fps and a bit more.
paolo11
Member
(09-21-2017, 09:54 PM)
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Originally Posted by ThoseDeafMutes

The release of the Pro and the X is exactly why I think waiting until 2021 isn't as crazy as it seemed a few years ago. Like I don't think they would have released those systems if they intended to replace them by 2019, and if 2020 doesn't quite get them to where they wanted to then it's not going to be a huge stretch to do just one more year. But on the other hand, if they do get lucky with nodes and archs, then 16-18 tf would be conceptually plausible on Navi's successor.


If 2021 is the release of Ps5, what can we expect for CPU?
autoduelist
Member
(09-21-2017, 10:12 PM)
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Originally Posted by Servbot24

I agree with 2020.

I say stretch PS4's lifespan as long as possible. I don't want to have to waste another several hundred dollars.

Originally Posted by redfox088

I don't understand why people think this gen will be shorter than the last. I actually think it will be just as long. 2020-2021 release.

Originally Posted by Falchion

I'm all about pushing the new generation as far back as possible so that it's as worthwhile an upgrade as possible.

It's all about this.

Early adopters like to chase tech and have disposable income - $400+ on luxury entertainment devices is not a deal breaker. They buy launch day, so gens feel longer to them compared to the average consumer.

The average consumer isn't really paying attention to launches. They'll notice when a huge game hits the media [Grand Theft Auto, etc] and/or a $100 price break or solid bundle. The average buyer gets in year 3-5, so not only will the gen not be as 'long' for them, they want to get as much out of it as they can so year 8 is not unreasonable. Year 8 also gives early buyers a $50/year pricepoint, which is manageable for those with limited entertainment dollars that still want in on launch day.

On game/tech forums, there are a preponderance of early adopters and people heavily invested into gaming, so we hear from lots of people that want super powerful PS5s four or five years into the gen... but in the grand scheme of things, most console buyers don't care about such things. Sony needs to ride the success of the PS4, and there is little point in undermining the PS4 until it reaches its sales tail.
Suzushiiro
Banned
(09-21-2017, 10:15 PM)
2020-2021 makes sense for next gen. PS4 Pro becoming the "default PS4" I don't know about- I can see them doing it if the cost difference between the two is so small that it doesn't make sense to keep making the old hardware, I guess? But otherwise I think they'd rather continue having a low-cost SKU.
AmyS
Member
(09-21-2017, 10:41 PM)
Another thing, I don't see Microsoft doing a technological leap from Xbox One X to the next console that's smaller than the leap from Xbox One to Xbox One X. This was a 4.5x increase in GPU performance, and within the same generation. Here's Phil Spencer's thoughts on an upgraded Xbox One in April 2016, prior to Project Scorpio's announcement at E3.

https://venturebeat.com/2016/04/02/m...ne-and-a-half/

If we’re going to move forward, I want to move forward in big numbers,”

Spencer on the next console beyond Scorpio.

I don’t know what the next console is past Scorpio. We’re thinking about it. We’re looking at consumer trends and what the right performance spec and price would be, and [asking ourselves], “Can we hit something that has a meaningful performance characteristic that a gamer would care about?”

I don’t have this desire to every two years have a new console on the shelf; that’s not part of the console business model, and it doesn’t actually help us.

I don’t know what the next thing is past Scorpio right now... I’m not trying to turn consoles into the graphics card market where every so often Nvidia or AMD come out with a new card, and if I want a little bit more performance I’m going to go buy that new card. I think for consoles it’s different. I think you have to hit a spec that actually means something in an ecosystem of televisions and games.

http://www.gameinformer.com/b/featur...px?PageIndex=2
GodofWine
Member
(09-21-2017, 10:52 PM)
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I just want to see a real CPU used, and 1080/60 to be the default worst case scenario (and adjustable graphics settings since people will be using anything from 720-8K screens by then)

Yea, I just want a PC with a Sony logo I guess. I don't really care if graphics get a huge boost, I just want big games in big dynamic persistent worlds to be not limited by a cell phone worthy CPU
RPGamer92
Banned
(09-21-2017, 10:53 PM)
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2020 with 16TF for $399 let's go!
Papacheeks
Junior Member
(09-21-2017, 11:10 PM)
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Originally Posted by teh_pwn

AMD Zen v2-v3 4-6 core around 2.8-3.2 GHz, GPU around the nVidia GTX 1080 area, but obviously cheaper and lower power due to die shrinks and architecture improvements, 500 GB SSD standard. Decent upgrade, should handle 4K with today's max settings at 30 fps and a bit more.

There's no way there would be a thermal solution for anything 3.0ghz.

Especially with it being 6-8 core cpu. More cores means more heat.
notacat
Member
(09-21-2017, 11:14 PM)
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So long as it has 32GB of HBM 2/3 memory, and HDMI 2.1 with it's variable framerate thingie i'm there day one.
AmyS
Member
(09-22-2017, 01:40 AM)

Originally Posted by notacat

So long as it has 32GB of HBM 2/3 memory, and HDMI 2.1 with it's variable framerate thingie i'm there day one.

HBM3 not only has 2x the bandwidth of HBM2 but is also being designed to be cheaper to produce as well.

If Sony doesn't use HBM3 in PS5 and they go with GDDR6, I'm thinking Microsoft might to get a technical advantage.
fritolay
Member
(09-22-2017, 01:44 AM)
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a
AmyS
Member
(09-22-2017, 02:43 AM)

Originally Posted by fritolay

Whatever top console is for multiplatform games, I will own it. That is why the Xbox One X will sell. Some people don't care as much about console specific games. They want the best graphics on a console for their TV.

I would by a new PS and new Xbox every 3 years.

Same here.

I have a PS4 Pro mainly for exclusives and getting the X1X for all the multiplat console releases. Totally looking forward to Metro Exodus.

I don't mind getting new consoles every 3-4 years.
Renekton
Member
(09-22-2017, 02:58 AM)
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Originally Posted by ItWasMeantToBe19

What types of gameplay decisions?

The Cell was extremely powerful, but we didn't really see that many games that couldn't be done gameplay wise on the GameCube or Xbox.

From what I understood, Cell was mostly good for offloading work from the weak RSX GPU. Otherwise its lack of OOE, high learning curve and paltry RAM meant devs couldn't do complex cool stuff with it.
Matt
Member
(09-22-2017, 03:26 AM)
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Originally Posted by AmyS

Another thing, I don't see Microsoft doing a technological leap from Xbox One X to the next console that's smaller than the leap from Xbox One to Xbox One X. This was a 4.5x increase in GPU performance, and within the same generation. Here's Phil Spencer's thoughts on an upgraded Xbox One in April 2016, prior to Project Scorpio's announcement at E3.

https://venturebeat.com/2016/04/02/m...ne-and-a-half/



Spencer on the next console beyond Scorpio.







http://www.gameinformer.com/b/featur...px?PageIndex=2

It will be a smaller jump in terms of GPU multipliers.

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