Steve Youngblood
Member
We shall see, won't we, MrNyarlathotep. We shall see.
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Wii U sales compared to PS2, 360, PS3, & Wii - Not doomed
- Thread starter Mr.Squirrel
- Start date
We shall see, won't we, MrNyarlathotep. We shall see.
metalslimer
Member
It seems like this is what a lot of people are hoping happens just to justify their own purchases.
I've been on to your long con sir.
Kacho
Gold Member
No, not really.
Mr.Squirrel
Tom
How am I defensive when I don't own the Wii U, DS, or 3DS and only own 4 Wii games? I don't even own a Mario game. No one knows how much the 360 would have sold if it was supply constrained. The ONLY data we have is what the NPD and console manufacturers put out. That's it.
Take away from it what you will, speculate on how much the 360 would have sold if it wasn't supply constrained. But you can't conclude that the Wii U is a flop from the numbers we have so far.
Davey Cakes
Member
Not necessarily. They helped out somewhat with the Wii, but that system was mostly carried by key Nintendo games. I think we could see a repeat here, but any third party support helps.
Maybe Nintendo will pull out their wallet and start buying more exclusives like Bayonetta 2. Only, they'll look for system sellers instead.
gutter_trash
Banned
if 3rd parties decide not to down-port from 720/PS4 to Wii U
if 3rd parties decide to stop making current gen games for PS3 and 360 and Wii U
I say yeah, 3rd parties will decide
Steve Youngblood
Member
And why would that be?
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
The problem I have with your statement, though, is that you're basically saying, "See these factual statistics? Throw them out the window and take my conjecture and speculation as fact!"
It doesn't work that way. You can't flat out ignore those numbers. Now, if the MS/Sony systems release to much larger numbers THEN you can say those numbers aren't good.
It is not a myth
Must of missed the gamecube and xbox launch. Those both did much bigger numbers than the Wii U.
Just like they did with the Wii, right?
metalslimer
Member
Um..no. Unless you mean 3rd party support drying up to Wii 2011/2012 levels
Well you can take the 11 year old numbers of the Xbox/Gamecube if that works better. And those were up against the behemoth PS2.
TunaMarshmallow
Member
I am a relentless Nintendo fan. I purchase every Nintendo system at launch. I purchased the 3DS at launch (and I love it). I purchased the Wii U at launch (and I really do like it). I have earned and gone through a bazillion Club Nintendo points, and I get Elite status every year. I even love NSMB2 and NSMBU, despite everyone telling me that I shouldn't. I cannot wait for Animal Crossing.
But I really, really believe that from a *business* standpoint -- not necessarily from a games-I-want-to-play standpoint -- the Wii U is going to be a cataclysmic disaster. I think it may be truly, truly awful for the company. I think that within a year we will be looking at a badly out-dated and out-featured console with nearly zero third-party support and almost no energy from the traditional gaming community. And, given the way that pop phenomena work, the emergence of iOS and Android gaming, and the way that the Wii's lifecycle went, I think that it is exceptionally improbable that the Wii U manages to (re)capture the attention of so-called "casual" gamers. I think we will see historically low numbers for a Nintendo console proportional to the current gaming market size, and perhaps even in absolute terms.
I just do not see *any* reason to believe that Nintendo will be able to build the kind of momentum that would be required in order for the system to be truly successful. Many people are saying what amounts to "if you look at historical trends, there is no reason to believe that these numbers mean doom". That may be true. But this overlooks two factors. First, what counts is not just the numbers but rather the numbers in context. The context, as far as I am concerned, is staggering disinterest. Two, it strikes me that the relevant consideration is not whether there is anything that in-principle rules out the Wii U's success, but rather whether we have any positive reason to believe that the Wii U will be a success. I can accept that nothing rules out the possibility of the Wii U succeeding, but I see absolutely nothing indicating that it is likely to succeed.
To be clear, nothing will stop me from loving the system. I'm sure that I will play and love Mario Galaxy 3 (or whatever), Mario Kart, Metroid, Zelda, Smash Bros., Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, and so on, and so on. I'm gonna have a hell of a good time with the Wii U. Absolutely. But I very much believe that from a business standpoint it'll be a staggering failure.
But I really, really believe that from a *business* standpoint -- not necessarily from a games-I-want-to-play standpoint -- the Wii U is going to be a cataclysmic disaster. I think it may be truly, truly awful for the company. I think that within a year we will be looking at a badly out-dated and out-featured console with nearly zero third-party support and almost no energy from the traditional gaming community. And, given the way that pop phenomena work, the emergence of iOS and Android gaming, and the way that the Wii's lifecycle went, I think that it is exceptionally improbable that the Wii U manages to (re)capture the attention of so-called "casual" gamers. I think we will see historically low numbers for a Nintendo console proportional to the current gaming market size, and perhaps even in absolute terms.
I just do not see *any* reason to believe that Nintendo will be able to build the kind of momentum that would be required in order for the system to be truly successful. Many people are saying what amounts to "if you look at historical trends, there is no reason to believe that these numbers mean doom". That may be true. But this overlooks two factors. First, what counts is not just the numbers but rather the numbers in context. The context, as far as I am concerned, is staggering disinterest. Two, it strikes me that the relevant consideration is not whether there is anything that in-principle rules out the Wii U's success, but rather whether we have any positive reason to believe that the Wii U will be a success. I can accept that nothing rules out the possibility of the Wii U succeeding, but I see absolutely nothing indicating that it is likely to succeed.
To be clear, nothing will stop me from loving the system. I'm sure that I will play and love Mario Galaxy 3 (or whatever), Mario Kart, Metroid, Zelda, Smash Bros., Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, and so on, and so on. I'm gonna have a hell of a good time with the Wii U. Absolutely. But I very much believe that from a business standpoint it'll be a staggering failure.
TheNatural
My Member!
So what's Wii U's excuse when you could get it a basic SKU for $300 and XBox's main SKU this holiday was $250?
The 360/PS3 vs. PS2/Wii stuff makes sense because there were hundreds of dollars of differences between them for the HD consoles. What's the excuse when a new system comes out in the same price range and it's launch period gets tripled by another system at almost the same price?
There is none, that's what.
Mr.Squirrel
Tom
All that factor proves is that previous gen consoles sell better than new gen consoles at the start. It happens every year primary because of price. An Xbox 360 is $199 right now. A Wii U is $350. That $150 difference has more to do with the 360 selling more than any other reason.
Davey Cakes
Member
I never expected it, personally. The Wii was basically a fluke. Not even Nintendo knew that it was going to explode like it did. The Wii U was never going to replicate that.
Steve Youngblood
Member
I don't think that numbers should be tossed aside in favor of narratives that people like. However, I also think it's disingenuous just to post numbers and go "See!" There's room for contextual clarification to explain numbers.
I think you can take them into account, but you have to also factor in the realities of the market at that time.
The best comparison, though, is to its current competition. That's the most relevant and up-to-date "factual statistic" out there, and the one that's going to matter most in the end-run.
Wii U might be fine, but the 360 was incredibly supply constrained in those first few months. I turned down the Core pack at Gamestop where I had my reservation and literally waited another full month before I saw a system. I was #2 on the list waiting for a reserved 360 after launch night. My Gamestop waited A MONTH for the next restock. Most of this is MS being slow on the uptake, but there was an unsatisfied demand. I don't know anyone waiting for a Wii U. I saw Wii Us sitting there at my Target 3 days before Xmas. That simply didn't exist with the 360.
Kudos to Nintendo for having product out there, but the Wii U launch bears zero resemblance to the the Wii and 360 launches. The PS3 launch? Maybe. Not a lot of demand then a big turn around.
Kudos to Nintendo for having product out there, but the Wii U launch bears zero resemblance to the the Wii and 360 launches. The PS3 launch? Maybe. Not a lot of demand then a big turn around.
Nightstick11
Banned
(1) how many buyers were denied a 360 at launch. (2) why don't the subsequent months in 2005 and 2006 NPDs show a spike in sales indicating pent up demand, like there were for the Wii?
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
We will.
I'm expecting "599 US DOLLARS" level of backlash against at least one of the next consoles launches.
I don't have a WiiU and don't intend getting one anytime soon.
It costs too much money and I want to see what else is going to be on offer, both for it and it's competition.
I still think both the next MS and Sony machines are going to be more expensive and less impressive with their launch titles than many are setting themselves up for.
MAX PAYMENT
Member
How could anyone ever think Nintendo could be doomed? Nintendo has been producing awesome for decades.
Steve Youngblood
Member
I don't think many reasonable sales people expected the Wii U December 2013 to outperform Xbox 360 December 2013. Ergo, I'm not sure what your point is, here.
The 3DS was on a very non-DS like trajectory up until the price cut and various games being announced, so it's not outside the realm of extreme possibility that Nintendo could do the same with the Wii U.
It doesn't have to be a "Spike". Systems were coming out slowly for months. Its not like one month later a ton were available and everyone bought one....
Steve Youngblood
Member
If it's Sony, I won't be shocked. I'm at about 50/50 right now in regards to whether or not they still have it in them to competently launch a product.
I'd buy one.
If they manage to get Id to make an exclusive Doom game for it I'll buy four.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
OP
metalslimer
Member
I don;t really get the comparison to the PS3 or Nintendo's handhelds at this point. In terms of the PS3, Sony lost over 4 billion dollars turning that thing around making it an unmitigated financial disaster that will haunt them for years, and Nintendo does not have the dominance in the console market that they do in the handheld market. I do expect Nintendo to be able to course correct the likely sinking ship later on this year when their first party goes into overdrive, but until then it's going to be a bumpy ride.
exactly. People are comparing the WiiU launch numbers to the PS3 and 360's launch numbers. Well the 360 was constantly selling out and the PS3 cost 600 fucking dollars. What's the Wii U's excuse?
Wii U is doomed because it has no mindshare. GAF didn't care about the Wii either but it was all over the media and the non-gaming consumers were all over it. Wii U has no mindshare for gamers or non-gamers. It is doomed until Nintendo creates something for it that gets people talking.
The problem with that statement is that I'm pretty sure the 3DS is going to be crossing paths with the DS again on the respective worldwide sales chart.
It's doing great in Japan and at least stabilized itself, but I don't think its numbers in the west are particularly good.
I'm pretty sure there was more hype for the Wii among gamers than the Wii U at this stage. There had to have been, because Nintendo at least let people glimpse something into the Wii's future.
TwEE-N-Toast
Banned
Aquamarine
Member
The problem is that we'll never know the specifics regarding launch demand. We can conjecture "what-if" situations all day long but the only thing we have is that 360 / Wii launches were supply constrained...and the Wii U launch had plenty of restocks.
Majmun
Member
But the Ps3 at $599 did better in december. And that was considered bad. How can you spin that?
Wii U's trouble isn't just sales. I remember the Ps3 and X360 getting a lot more hype during launch. Wii U hype is non-existent. Something tells me that only early adopters who always buy Nintendo hardware bought the console.
WiiU's lack of popularity outside that group of enthousiasts is definitely discerning.
Wii U's trouble isn't just sales. I remember the Ps3 and X360 getting a lot more hype during launch. Wii U hype is non-existent. Something tells me that only early adopters who always buy Nintendo hardware bought the console.
WiiU's lack of popularity outside that group of enthousiasts is definitely discerning.
bad marketing from Nintendos side, BLOPSII (you know, "hardcore" gamers are on the 360) and Halo
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
I would be amazed if Nintendo do not at least have a couple of big guns ready for release sooner than the end of this year that are unannounced and being held as opening salvos until they find out what Sony and MS launch plans are.
If things are sufficiently bad, they might release earlier than originally planned.
The fact that this thread even exists is a testament to that fact. When one group of people is desperately trying to rally against a "narrative," then there's sort of an implicit acknowledgment that the common perception is that it's doing mediocre and that it doesn't have the mindshare to overcome it.
TheNatural
My Member!
I like how you conveniently took the cheapest 360 SKU vs. the most expensive Wii U one.
Newsflash: people weren't buying any Wii U's period, but if they wanted they could have got the basic. They both equally unsold. And the 360's that sold most were the $250 holiday bundle with the hard drive and two games. That's a $50 difference, not $150. Wii U is in the same price range, but is still getting killed.
But yeah, you're just making shit up and slanting numbers to try to win an argument anyway.
lol seriously. It was like a week before Wii U release and there was almost no talk about it on the first page. When the 720/PS4 are about to launch, people are going to be losing their shit.
What does doomed mean? Do you expect it to suddenly not exist? Do you expect it to do Gamecube numbers? Do you expect it to "only" do as good as PS3 and 360 did this gen?
I think that is the part that gets under peoples skin. The Wii U (and the Vita for this matter) will have their ~5 years to do their thing and since the Wii U and 3DS are already selling at profit (Iwata did say Wii U brought in more profit than Wii over the same time period) Nintendo is far from the dictionary definition of doomed.
I think that is the part that gets under peoples skin. The Wii U (and the Vita for this matter) will have their ~5 years to do their thing and since the Wii U and 3DS are already selling at profit (Iwata did say Wii U brought in more profit than Wii over the same time period) Nintendo is far from the dictionary definition of doomed.
Defintely... We had Twilight Princess in our hands. We had Mario Galaxy to look forward to, and Metroid Prime Corruption, and with all the buzz around the console there was hope at the beginning that third parties would be forced to make games for it. The writing was already on the wall that it was going to be a success.
Wii U is looking much grimmer. But I do think that the comparisons to DS, and especially 3DS, are pretty fair. Those products confused the hell out of people at first. And in the case of the 3DS, it was overpriced with no cool games, and people didn't like the gimmick. In the end both handhelds are going to be counted as great successes. 3DS may never match DS in sales, but it's certainly no disaster, and Nintendo made that happen in both cases by releasing compelling software.
That's why I'm not fully in the doom and gloom camp. I think Nintendo make better games than anybody when they're really in the groove, and eventually there will be mindblowing games for the Wii U. Games good enough to sell hardware.
metalslimer
Member
Well the problem is no one is actually calling it doomed, or at least the vast majority aren't.
lets watch at what you get for your money
250 for console + 2 games vs 350 for he console + 1 game.
Each game adds 50$ to the price, so it is 150$ vs 350$ and the 360 console was half the price of the WiiU console. Then as mentioned above the 360 has a much more hyped Halo 4 and COD sells also more 360 consoles than any other
Steve Youngblood
Member
He said more revenue. Not profit.
Mr. B Natural
Member
No early stage mindshare + putting out a system that is clearly intended to grab early mindshare (at the cost of longer term positioning) = not a good outlook for the future and or being forced to start over.
dragonflys545
Member
Nintendo aren't going to sell jack squat until we see some damn games that matters.
it's a strawman born of a fundamentalist mentality. see it not as an expression, but a name tag.
though it has been entertaining to watch the bi polar dance of alternating denial and proclamations of industry wide cataclysm.
Wuthering_Heights
Banned
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