Jonneh3003
Banned
3DS and Wii would like to have a word with you. The people who care about resolution are a niche.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Credit Suisse upgrades Nintendo rating, expects 130m Switches by 2022
- Thread starter Skittzo0413
- Start date
3DS and Wii would like to have a word with you. The people who care about resolution are a niche.
WhatWeLeftBehind
Member
To add a more serious comment: what makes it sound optimistic is not so much selling 130 million. I mean, we have at least 2 platforms achieving those numbers in the past decade and with a third one (PS4) on the way it looks like.
But 130 million within 5 years of launch is what makes it sound a bit insane. The DS took until 2010 to pass 130 million(6 years after launch). PS2 took until 2007(7 years after its worldwide launch). That would make the Switch one of the fastest selling platforms ever.
I think everybody who's looking at that Tencent deal is correct. Nintendo entering China is whats going to let this platform achieve that level of succes in that short a timeframe. 2019 is the year Nintendo is aiming to release the Switch in China. 2019 is also the year Pokemon Switch is going to launch plus a probable revision.
Let's start betting gentlemen!
But 130 million within 5 years of launch is what makes it sound a bit insane. The DS took until 2010 to pass 130 million(6 years after launch). PS2 took until 2007(7 years after its worldwide launch). That would make the Switch one of the fastest selling platforms ever.
I think everybody who's looking at that Tencent deal is correct. Nintendo entering China is whats going to let this platform achieve that level of succes in that short a timeframe. 2019 is the year Nintendo is aiming to release the Switch in China. 2019 is also the year Pokemon Switch is going to launch plus a probable revision.
Let's start betting gentlemen!
UnemployedVillain
Member
It's possible this includes some mid lifecycle "refresh" akin to the N3DS/Pro/XBOX which they could do at any point since the chips (the X2) are already available. Even still it's a crazy estimate for ANY system released nowadays
Sure, but offloading certain calculations to another gpu/cpu is not out of the realm of possibilities. Hell, it was the entire sales pitch of Microsoft's Azure network and my old macs used to do things like that for video rendering. And here we'd be talking about a local machine that handles calculations. It wouldn't be the same as straight upgrading your gpu or CPU but it would certainly be useful...though complicated to plan for.
Skittzo0413
Member
I'm curious if people realize that the Switch is currently tracking ahead of the 3DS worldwide even after the price cut. That sorta suggests that it will outsell it, no?
Since the Switch only has a USB-C out in its current iteration.
Since the Switch only has a USB-C out in its current iteration.
I'm not sure if you're joking here (I think so?). There's no way the Switch could replace someone's phone.
But man, you got me thinking...
Nintendo Switch 5G, 2019, $99 at Verizon with a 2 year tablet data contract.
There's got to be some potential there, right?
Colonel Mustard
Banned
Didn't Sony try this with the Vita to some extent?
Stallion Dan
Member
I doubt they can drop the price anywhere close enough to what is needed to sell that many.
gundamkyoukai
Member
It's not only that having a better cpu and more ram also going to take up the TDP .
Games being higher end also going to take up more power .
Also the current switch architecture can go higher but Nintendo hold back i expect the same for switch 2 .
Side note i don't think PS5 going to use 10nm\12nm if i remember right companies seem like they skipping that .
James Scott
Banned
Console go down in price eventually. Especially if they sell well.
I imagine they could drop to $250 pretty soon if they had any need to.
LegendofLex
Member
Absolutely no reason to do this when it'd be much more cost-efficient for every party involved to just tether Switch to the mobile devices everyone already owns.
I can easily see switch lite and switch home variants of the system that are much cheaper. But yeah, not expecting 130m by 2022 still.
I don't see the PS4 making it. It's clearing the PS1 and Wii, but that's still a long way from 130 million.
The 2 platforms that achieved over 130 million were the two most successful game systems of all time.
The PS4 is probably going to pass the 3DS by the end of this year.
Jubenhimer
Member
Not really sure what's stopping the Switch from getting to over 100 million overtime. Sure, 130 million in 4 years is way to unrealistic. But 70-80 million lifetime is far too conservative. I think the Switch can reach DS/Wii numbers if Nintendo can keep the momentum up. Not really sure why people are predicting less.
The DS sold 1.5 times as much as the Wii. There's a pretty big gulf there.
Renegade Frost
Banned
By following the DS track dude
BrokenJohnCena
Member
yeah,same,I think Tencent games might be a hint that Nintendo is starting to tackle SEA countries and China.If Nintendo manages to get League of Legends and Honor of Kings to their system,the console will do great in those countries
Renegade Frost
Banned
That is not a mathematically sound statement lmao
D.Lo
Member
Fucking finally is all I can say.
As a solid gaming tablet package it is actually quite good value too. Quality build, cheaper than an ipad with much more utility, the only issue is getting a google play like store full of FTP junk. Maybe that isn't as much of an issue if you get the top Chinese games?
Not joking. Xavier AI is said to have roughly double the performance of the dual Tegra X2 based Drive PX2, and that's an 8TF architecture. A standard generational leap for Switch (8-10x) using the Tegra line really won't be an issue. More than doubling ram and ARM outperforming Jaguar aren't exactly high benchmarks in a 5 year timetable either, both could be done today even if Nintendo were willing to pay for it. And they could do two die shrinks right now, nevermind 5 years out.
BrokenJohnCena
Member
Mark my words,once this thing does everything a normal tablet can do,including playing gatcha games and stuffs combining with heavily investing in China,SEA and other Asia countries,they will achieve 130 million much sooner than 2020(well,maybe not but they can do it)
Renegade Frost
Banned
3DS is PSP-tier in terms of hardware sold and Wii U was a disaster saleswise. Exceeding that, even combined, would be expected for a successful hybrid device.
By the way, I'd love to see the looks on EA shareholders' faces as they read news like these with the company's lineup for the system opened on a second monitor.
I feel like something of a broken record on this, but is there some other information people have seen which indicates release in China or breaking into China? The Switch is not currently (officially) for sale on the mainland, and the Tencent deal for Honour of Kings, while new, isn't porting the version China plays with the huge player count everyone keeps talking about. No playerbase of any relevance is going to abandon the Chinese mobile version, which has esports ties and them having already accrued or paid for heroes, in favour of a less mobile international version.
It's essentially a separate game with the same base gameplay even if the bulk of the dev work was still by Timi and it's getting published by Tencent. And the date of 'March 2019' or whatever is just analyst speculation.
James Scott
Banned
70-80M sounds like a success either way you slice it.
PSP is one of the better selling systems but it seems bad since it was in last place and next to probably the fastest selling system ever.
Jubenhimer
Member
Well yeah, but people don't think the Switch will reach even Wii levels of success. Yet, there's nothing stopping the Switch from doing so. It's not like it's only for hardcore Nintendo fans.
Actually the cpu would likely move to A72/A73 as A57 hasn't been designed for smaller nodes and Nvidia's custom CPU isn't designed for gaming. If the switch had used A72 in its current process node, it could have achieved over a 50% higher clock and actually matched ps4's cpu at its current TDP. It should actually drastically decrease TDP for the cpu going forward, heck to match ps4 pro, it probably only needs 2ghz quad core and at 7nm that is drastically cheaper power draw than currently used for the A57 at 1ghz on 20nm.
Wider GPUs (more shaders) also use less power for performance than higher clock, while the node should allow savings at the current clocks. Putting 4x the shaders in a switch gpu and clocking it twice as high to hit 768mhz should be very low still for that node and allow it to draw similar power, when docked it should be able to more than double the clock for a ps4 pro like performance.
What is interesting to think about is the limit of consoles, 200 to 300 watts built with AMD, much higher clocks and larger silicon, x86 and cpu performance. A price limit of ~$500 and 2 node reductions left in our physical world atm, I think PS5 is going to be limited to 20tflops give or take 5, and that's the end of our current technology, we can't shrink nodes further and a pro model could draw more wattage to hit 30tflops. Mixed precision should help achieve naughty dog's 40tflops hopes, but I think switch will fit comfortably with a low end performance of ~ps4 pro's level in 6 years.
Considering 9 months ago the consensus was that it was dead In the water and the Switch has sailed through its launch period. It means that there potential for some good numbers. 80 lifetime was the max that I thought the Switch would do. But if there is a suite of switches with some uohrades in 2 yeas and current owners double dip who knows.
KojiKnight
Member
Are these numbers taking into consideration Nintendo wanting to get into China by 2019? Cause that's a pretty huge untapped market.
James Scott
Banned
It's weird to think that was the consensus. I thought most people were pretty positive on the reveal. It was mostly the January event's pricing which is admittedly higher than most expected.
OrbitalBeard
Member
GAF can't see the forest for the trees most of the time. The January event had some pretty disappointing elements so of course the system was completely doomed. There are people in this thread who think Switch's $299 price is the reason it can never hope to achieve Wii-level sales. As if the system will never receive a price drop.
Seriously, is this from something? I read some stuff that claimed Nintendo wanted to do this, but is there anything from Nintendo or someone who knows Nintendo saying this?
D.Lo
Member
There was a thread with a poll where 55.6% of votes were for it to sell at Gamecube level or worse.
There wasn't a lot of nuance in the better options in the poll (jumping from 'improvement on Gamecube' straight to 'Wii'), but it at least shows a majority being extremely negative, and only a tiny fraction seeing the potential for a very big hit.
sleepnaught
Member
Wii sold 20 million in it's first year, isn't the Switch on track to be just half that? How do they plan on catching up? They'll need Pokemon in 2018 for sure to get the numbers moving. Hope Odyssey can move units in the meantime.
Software sales are way down by comparison too.
Software sales are way down by comparison too.
My thoughts exactly. It's not that consoles can't reach this Pinnacle height, it's how quickly they are saying it will happen.
Nintendo entering China will definitely boost sales, but production will have to ramp up as they still have not been able to keep them on shelves and fill the demand in the markets they already serve.
Gotdatmoney
Member
It's not lack of appeal. It's simply lack of stock stunting the Switch's hardware sales. As far as software is concerned there is just less retail games available now compared to when the Wii launched. And digital is much bigger as well. It mostly seems fine imo.
Wii launched in November and did 20 shipped by the end of the next year (per wikipedia so grain of salt), so it had 2 christmases for 20, and switch is only held back by production
The Switch hasn't yet sold half of the Gamecube lifetime sales, and while I think it would do better than that (22 million), never assume that dropoffs are impossible. Pokemon and Animal Crossing will be a big deal, but you never know how things will shake out.
The Gamecube also had a 3D sandbox Mario, Animal Crossing, and 3D Pokemon of a sort (Colosseum and XD), as well as Fire Emblem, and Zelda. Differences between these iterations are there to be sure, but don't pretend that just because X franchise is coming out it's guaranteed to sell gangbusters.
James Scott
Banned
Imagine if they had the same supply issue while taking a loss at $250 which is what a lot of people were recommending.
While $300 will likely keep it from selling incredible numbers once supply and demand level, they can always drop or make more bundles.
Right now since they'll likely struggle with demand going into the holidays they've actually made bundles that are more expensive than MSRP which I don't think you see very often.
Hope they're aggressive with Switch marketing and pricing leading into early 2018. Dont' want to mess up a good start which they lacked with their last 2 systems.
While $300 will likely keep it from selling incredible numbers once supply and demand level, they can always drop or make more bundles.
Right now since they'll likely struggle with demand going into the holidays they've actually made bundles that are more expensive than MSRP which I don't think you see very often.
Hope they're aggressive with Switch marketing and pricing leading into early 2018. Dont' want to mess up a good start which they lacked with their last 2 systems.
They can't manufacture enough and Switch launched in March and hasn't had its first holiday season let alone 2
BrokenJohnCena
Member
I mean Anima Crossing was just a nee IP at that time,exactly like Splatoon when it was still on the Wii U,Colosseum was treated as a spin off,Wind Waker got tons of backlash because of the cel-shading art style and released one year after the system launch and fire emblem wasn't even a big franchise back then.Only Sunshine was the legit game that had the appeals for the system in my opinion
James Scott
Banned
Don't compare the colosseum spin offs with a new mainline pokemon game, lol
While it's true that GCN had a good line up, a lot of the titles mentioned had some quirks to them.
Animal Crossing's popularity didn't skyrocket till the sequel on DS.
Fire Emblem was a non entity till Awakening in the west.
Mario and Zelda took awhile instead of being pretty close to launch.
On top of that, they were both controversial titles.
WW had a weird art style which is now appreciated but was loathed back in the day.
Both titles were also rushed and they feel rushed.
Don't think near GCN is very likely at this point. Maybe not >80M, but we'll see.
D.Lo
Member
I posted that just to prove the majority opinion was it would definitely fail (defining failure at ~20 million). Aka the point of that post was just to show what the majority opinion was, not if it was correct or not.
Regarding your comments, it can indeed fall off a cliff, anything can indeed happen. But we've never seen anything start with this kind of momentum do so. Based on that I expect 30-40 is the floor now, even if a actual disaster happens. Remember the Wii still had its best US Christmas even after its decline had started.
StereoVsn
Member
So, wait, this is because of that whole (if 1% of China buys it) theory? Ahah ahaha ahaha. Wait.... ahaha aha. This is benderlaughing.gif type of response that must be given. Has China demonstrated that anything other then personal phones or PCs sell as far as gaming goes? PS4 and Xbone are not doing too hot. Nintendo or Sony handhelds never sold well (of course not allowed officially) and there is no culture there of folks paying $30-60 per game since vast majority of successful titles are F2P.
I still don't see above 3DS level success here, maybe I am wrong and Nintendo blows it out of the park and sells 80 mil in 5 years. 130mil though and because of China Tencent deal👍😂.
I still don't see above 3DS level success here, maybe I am wrong and Nintendo blows it out of the park and sells 80 mil in 5 years. 130mil though and because of China Tencent deal👍😂.
20 million seems silly just looking at this year alone, it has sold about 7 million in the first 6 months, been literally sold out in its biggest markets nearly the entire time and is now moving into the holidays with a larger stock, it's very likely that it will outsell the last 6 months based on that, does it beat gcn in its first year? That's not what I'm saying, I'm saying that it's going to be so close to gcn at the end of the first year that it would have to become less appealing than the wii u which managed to sell 10m after its initial holiday over the past 4 and a half years.
There is no drop off quite like that one imo, and that would still take it to the N64's ~33 million.
As a Nintendo fan and a very optimistic poster who has always been bullish on the switch, its tech and its future success potential, I don't disagree. However being all those things, I see Switch at about 100m after 5 years and of all the devices that could penetrate China's market, I think Switch has the best chance, however I don't have the faith that Nintendo is the right company to push into China.
Sure, and I see no reason to disagree with a 30~40m LTD floor, considering they seem to have consolidated handheld and home userbases.
Theonik
Member
The physical connector isn't so important when both sides are proprietary.