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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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Condom

Member
The real challenge for Parti du Gauche lies in the parliamentary elections no? Since that's where they could potentially eat some of PS's influence.

Not sure how Macron is thinking of dealing with no party support. I'm no expert on French politics but I would imagine that the way he will lean in his policies will also be decided by who is open for cooperation.
 

Regginator

Member
According to NOS (biggest Dutch outlet), Macron leads by a big margin (24% of the votes), followed by Le Pen, Fillon and Mélenchon, who all have around 18/20%. These are leaked exit polls. We'll have to wait until later this evening for confirmation.
 

Magni

Member
The real challenge for Parti du Gauche lies in the parliamentary elections no? Since that's where they could potentially eat some of PS's influence.

Not sure how Macron is thinking of dealing with no party support. I'm no expert on French politics but I would imagine that the way he will lean in his policies will also be decided by who is open for cooperation.

He has a bunch of people who signed up to be candidates for the legislatives for his movement. Now, whether people vote for them is another matter.
 
According to NOS (biggest Dutch outlet), Macron leads by a big margin (24% of the votes), followed by Le Pen, Fillon and Mélenchon, who all have around 18/20%. These are leaked exit polls. We'll have to wait until later this evening for confirmation.

Would be a shame if a mere 1 or 2 percent is the reason this Le Pen nightmare has to go on for 2 more weeks.
 

seb

Banned
in the US we bitch about the electoral college all the time. grass is greener and all that.

I was just venting. I actually like direct-voting for the president. But still, people are just uneducated. Our school system is failing big time.
Between 18 yo that don't know shit and senile 80+ I feel like half of the votes are a joke :(
 

Regginator

Member
Would be a shame if a mere 1 or 2 percent is the reason this Le Pen nightmare has to go on for 2 more weeks.

I hope Mélenchon gets 2nd place, I can share most of his Radical Left views. I also agree with his notion that the EU is useful, but it needs to polish a lot of the bureaucracy and be less in service to multinationals and focus more on its citizens. Though leaving the NAVO altogether, that I disagree with.

As long as Le Pen gets the fuck out.
 

Trickster

Member
According to NOS (biggest Dutch outlet), Macron leads by a big margin (24% of the votes), followed by Le Pen, Fillon and Mélenchon, who all have around 18/20%. These are leaked exit polls. We'll have to wait until later this evening for confirmation.

Don't want to get hopes up, but Macron performing big would make me so happy as someone not from france, but the EU
 

Koren

Member
Not sure how Macron is thinking of dealing with no party support. I'm no expert on French politics but I would imagine that the way he will lean in his policies will also be decided by who is open for cooperation.
French politics aren't that locked to parties.

Parties are created and destroyed based on the needs. A lot of moderate right and moderate left people have expressed that they were ready to support him instead of their natural candidate. Some technically can't (because of primaries) but probably would, and can change their stance after the elections.

I don't doubt that Macron will be able to put candidates everywhere for legislatives elections. Some coming from both side, although many "new" (so that it angers noone... again, it's the general strategy, that's fuzzy logic applied to politics). Since it's largely a "winner takes all" in each place, a small edge can give you a strong majority, and often, after the presidential election, people are willing to give the president a chance.

So yes, he can. He may not have a majority alone (although it's possible). We'll have to see how he deals with it IF he's elected and depending on the legislative results.



And well... Macron is already left AND right. He almost ran for mayor in Le Touquet as an unofficial LR candidate (main right party) but had to give up because he was in secret a PS supporter (main left party). Talk about working with both sides ;)

It's far from uncommon for people in France to move.


And, well... Wasn't Trump a Clinton supporter in the previous election ? ;)
 

Ac30

Member
I was just venting. I actually like direct-voting for the president. But still, people are just uneducated. Our school system is failing big time.
Between 18 yo that don't know shit and senile 80+ I feel like half of the votes are a joke :(

Yes, but I don't think even the senile French voters would have voted for Trump.

If Macron makes it to the second round she'd have less than a 0.1% chance of winning.
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seb

Banned
I hope Mélenchon gets 2nd place, I can share most of his Radical Left views. I also agree with his notion that the EU is useful, but it needs to polish a lot of the bureaucracy and be less in service to multinationals and focus more on its citizens. Though leaving the NAVO altogether, that I disagree with.

As long as Le Pen gets the fuck out.

Why though (re NATO) ? We weren't in the NATO for the longest time or am I confused? I don't remember that being a problem.
And yes, no Lepen at 2nd round would be glorious.
 

LordKano

Member
Macron vs Lepen -> Macron wins, very easily.
Macron vs Melenchon -> Macron wins, also very easily.
Macron vs Fillon -> Harder, I'd say Fillon has a good chance since LePen's voters might rally for him due to its recent radicalization. While, on the other side, Melenchon's voters absolutely won't vote Macron.
Lepen vs Fillon -> The most unknow output. I really have no clue. I don't believe in the "barrage" anymore.
Lepen vs Melenchon -> Watch the world burns.
Fillon vs Melenchon -> Fillon. Unless some twist amongst LePen voters.

Purely my opinions.
 

Koren

Member
If Macron makes it to the second round she'd have less than a 0.1% chance of winning.
I wish we could get something as clear-cut as 83-17 like in Chirac-LePen... 63-37 wouldn't be as satisfying.

But I'd prefer FN not reaching second turn, if only to see them deal with that. Should Marine be removed, they probably won't agree on who's next, and any split would make them weaker, which would be welcome.
 

Mimosa97

Member
I don't think people realize what a massive earthquake it would be if Marine doesn't make it to the second round.

We're talking about the candidate who has been leading the polls for the last 5 years and polling regularly at 30%.
 

Koren

Member
Macron vs Fillon -> Harder, I'd say Fillon has a good chance since LePen's voters might rally for him due to its recent radicalization. While, on the other side, Melenchon's voters absolutely won't vote Macron.
I'm not even sure that Macron voters at first turn will vote Macron at second turn in this case. I can see people wanting to avoid Melenchon-LePen casting a white vote once it's clear. Expecially now that we count white votes.

The biggest hurdle for Fillon is first turn. He stands a good chance at second turn against anyone.
 

Magni

Member
Macron vs Lepen -> Macron wins, very easily.
Macron vs Melenchon -> Macron wins, also very easily.
Macron vs Fillon -> Harder, I'd say Fillon has a good chance since LePen's voters might rally for him due to its recent radicalization. While, on the other side, Melenchon's voters absolutely won't vote Macron.
Lepen vs Fillon -> The most unknow output. I really have no clue. I don't believe in the "barrage" anymore.
Lepen vs Melenchon -> Watch the world burns.
Fillon vs Melenchon -> Fillon. Unless some twist amongst LePen voters.

Purely my opinions.

For me, based on polls:

Macron wins against everyone.
Mélenchon wins against Fillon and Le Pen.
Fillon wins against Le Pen.
Le Pen lol

Hope the polls were accurate.
 

LordKano

Member
I don't think people realize what a massive earthquake it would be if Marine doesn't make it to the second round.

We're talking about the candidate who has been leading the polls for the last 5 years and polling regularly at 30%.

Marine can't lose tonight. It's a make or break situation. If she loses, she'll go with her father, and Maréchal will take the lead.

I'm not even sure that Macron voters at first turn will vote Macron at second turn in this case. I can see people wanting to avoid Melenchon-LePen casting a white vote once it's clear. Expecially now that we count white votes.

The biggest hurdle for Fillon is first turn. He stands a good chance at second turn against anyone.

Good point. Abstention might be huge on second turn if LePen doesn't pass.
 

EmiPrime

Member
I don't think people realize what a massive earthquake it would be if Marine doesn't make it to the second round.

We're talking about the candidate who has been leading the polls for the last 5 years and polling regularly at 30%.

I'm not sure which would be more enjoyable, the immediate aftermath or the FN infighting for months (years?) to come.
 

azyless

Member
Marine can't lose tonight. It's a make or break situation. If she loses, she'll go with her father, and Maréchal will take the lead.
Marion Maréchal wouldn't come close to the numbers Marine is pulling. She's even more insane.
Philippot probably has more chances to take over.
 

yananana

Member
Lepen vs Fillon -> The most unknow output. I really have no clue. I don't believe in the "barrage" anymore.

IMO the "everything but Le Pen" would still work in this case, pretty much like the French regional elections in 2015, when the increased participation rate in the second round eventually led le Front National unable to win any regions.

But with everything that happened since this I'm not so sure anymore to be fair.
 

Fisico

Member
Macron vs Lepen -> Macron wins, very easily.
Macron vs Melenchon -> Macron wins, also very easily.
Macron vs Fillon -> Harder, I'd say Fillon has a good chance since LePen's voters might rally for him due to its recent radicalization. While, on the other side, Melenchon's voters absolutely won't vote Macron.
Lepen vs Fillon -> The most unknow output. I really have no clue. I don't believe in the "barrage" anymore.
Lepen vs Melenchon -> Watch the world burns.
Fillon vs Melenchon -> Fillon. Unless some twist amongst LePen voters.

Purely my opinions.

We'v had various polls, a few of your opinions just seems wrong on the prediction's side
 

azyless

Member
IMO the "everything but Le Pen" would still work in this case, pretty much like the French regional elections in 2015, when the increased participation rate in the second round eventually led le Front National unable to win any regions.

But with everything that happened since this I'm not so sure anymore to be fair.
Abstention would be insane if it was a Fillon/Le Pen second round. Not many leftists would be willing to go vote for Fillon.
 
For someone ignorant on French politics, I do understand that LePen is a French Trump, but who is the candidate with more Progressive policies? It sounds more like Macron if I am correct?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
For someone ignorant on French politics, I do understand that LePen is a French Trump, but who is the candidate with more Progressive policies?

Out of the candidates with some chance of winning, either Macron or Melenchon, depending on what you consider progressiveness to be.
 

Regginator

Member
Why though (re NATO) ? We weren't in the NATO for the longest time or am I confused? I don't remember that being a problem.
And yes, no Lepen at 2nd round would be glorious.

I'm pretty sure France was a founding member of NATO right after WW2...
 

LordKano

Member
Marion Maréchal wouldn't come close to the numbers Marine is pulling. She's even more insane.
Philippot probably has more chances to take over.

I thought about him too, but would people really want a not-Lepen at the head ? And, I think if FN loses tonight, the fault will be rejected at Philipot. Ironically, he's the one who "un-demonized" LePen.

We'v had various polls, a few of your opinions just seems wrong on the prediction's side

Probably. I'm not French so It's based on guesses, what friends are telling me, what I see through medias and so on.
 

azyless

Member
For someone ignorant on French politics, I do understand that LePen is a French Trump, but who is the candidate with more Progressive policies?
In terms of social issues ? Mélenchon > Macron
Le Pen and Fillon are both from the 19th century I'm not even bothering ranking them
 

yananana

Member
Abstention would be insane if it was a Fillon/Le Pen second round. Not many leftists would be willing to go vote for Fillon.

For sure but I think abstentionists who didn't vote in the first round will vote for Fillon in this case, just to stop Le Pen.
 

Alej

Banned
For someone ignorant on French politics, I do understand that LePen is a French Trump, but who is the candidate with more Progressive policies? It sounds more like Macron if I am correct?

Nope. Macron is in the continuity of Hollande. Hamon is or even Mélenchon if you take the NGO's opinions in account.

Macron is a jack-of-all-trades guy. He has the same program of Hollande minus the leftish talks.
 

Ac30

Member
Nope. Macron is in the continuity of Hollande. Hamon is or even Mélenchon if you take the NGO's opinions in account.

Macron is a jack-of-all-trades guy. He has the same program of Hollande minus the leftish talks.

If by progressive he means on social issues I'd think they're probably all the same, no? Besides LePen and Fillon obviously. Manif pour tous can eat shit
 

Koren

Member
We'v had various polls, a few of your opinions just seems wrong on the prediction's side
I really, really don't thing 2nd turn polls before the 1st turn are remotely trustable.

But out of curiosity, which predictions seems wrong?

8pm. We won't get earlier polls this time around since big cities are voting until 7pm this year.
Several places vote till 8PM, that's the reason why the law says nothing before 8PM...
 
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