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Switch at 4.7 million | ARMS: 1.18 Million, Zelda: 3.92M, Mario Kart 3.54M

I went looking for neon joy cons all over NYC over the weekend and the Switch shelves are barren. There were some pro controllers and cables and shit, but not much else. Even when you looked at the games, all the first party stuff was sold out.

Yeah, I was sort of saying "really" as, c'mon guys. There are not 600,000 copies of ARMS just laying out there, unsold. Maybe it hasn't sold 1 million yet (sure!), but there isn't a scenario where only 1/2 of the shipped stock has sold.

I did not expect Nintendo to ship a million copies of ARMS by now. I'm impressed.
 
I went looking for neon joy cons all over NYC over the weekend and the Switch shelves are barren. There were some pro controllers and cables and shit, but not much else. Even when you looked at the games, all the first party stuff was sold out.

When i bought my switch in nyc, there were no switcces on shelves but 5 behind the counter. You gotta make sure to ask around. Even the online inventory said zero in stock... my ass...
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
I was thinking about buying it.

What are your favorite mini games?

I enjoy party mode. So, you play a board game and play what you land on. I don't really pick individual games to play.

It's not really about any paritculae mini game, just the ridiculousness of the scenarios and trying to win as a team versus your friends or families. It's not a very technical or accurate type of experience.

My little cousins love the Runway and Rock Out guitar one, some buddies like the gun firing and Boxing one. Baseball always is a blast if you land on that square.the baby one always gets laughs.

Me I find them mostly the same I just like the screaming and yelling aspects of it. It's a blast.

Don't buy to play alone or if you intend to take it serious tho.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
When i bought my switch in nyc, there were no switcces on shelves but 5 behind the counter. You gotta make sure to ask around. Even the online inventory said zero in stock... my ass...

I did, nobody had anything. Apparently it gets like this after every major release.
 

Offline

Banned
Switch sales are solid good but I really wish Arms sold more and I actually bought two copies of the game. I probably have a weird fixation with supporting first party new IP because I also have multiple copies of gravity rush, sunset overddrive and tearaway, I always feel like they have an uphill battle to fight and try to do my part as a consumer to help bolster their sales in some capacity. I just hope Arms sales didn't discourage Nintendo to stop investing in new ip, it really helps keep this industry fresh and interesting for me anyway.
 

v1oz

Member
If they weren't supply contained Switch could have been their fastest selling console. It could have sold even faster than the Wii. Nintendo need to be far more aggressive with their supplier contracts, the same way Apple are.
 

AzaK

Member
I dont think it will peak at 10 million a year. That would be desastreus. You will see a growth in sales in second and third year especially. Depending on what new things they come up with, you could see steady shipments of 18 million a year for 3 years straight. Wii numbers is really not out of reach, especially if you consider how the hardware quality is just way above what Nintendo did in the past, and they also have a solid lineup for the upcoming years.

Will be interesting to watch, I do wonder what software they are going to have though seeing as some of their biggest franchises are already out and they are still keeping 3DS alive? I guess there's probably tonnes of handheld stuff that I just don't know of as I don't play it.
 

Koppai

Member
If they weren't supply contained Switch could have been their fastest selling console. It could have sold even faster than the Wii. Nintendo need to be far more aggressive with their supplier contracts, the same way Apple are.

There is a shortage in the entire industry right now, it's what is holding them back.
 

Falchion

Member
Hope Arms and Splatoon 2 keep doing well, I want Nintendo to keep trying new stuff that's not just their mascots in a different genre.
 
I went looking for neon joy cons all over NYC over the weekend and the Switch shelves are barren. There were some pro controllers and cables and shit, but not much else. Even when you looked at the games, all the first party stuff was sold out.

i know best buy restocked the neon joy con last week the 5 i visit for work all had atleast 6 or more on shelves but that was in michigan but NYC is a much bigger market so they all probably sold out quick.
 
Man, people have really forgotten how bad the Wii stock situation was. With the Switch, when they arrive in stock at places like Amazon, they're often there for a few hours before they're gone. With the Wii it was minutes if you were lucky. And they were supplying a hell of a lot more if them. That thing was supply constrained until after the 2009 holidays. If you think the Switch's situation is comparable, then you're remembering it wrong.

Hours? Where? Here in the US they're gone in moments.
 

Instro

Member
If they weren't supply contained Switch could have been their fastest selling console. It could have sold even faster than the Wii. Nintendo need to be far more aggressive with their supplier contracts, the same way Apple are.

Is that even feasible though? They are directly competing with Apple and every other phone company in this NAND shortage. Apple has far more clout and money to throw at the issue to secure a large amount of the current supply.

I legitimately think they are stuck until next year when nand availability is expected to improve.

Man, people have really forgotten how bad the Wii stock situation was. With the Switch, when they arrive in stock at places like Amazon, they're often there for a few hours before they're gone. With the Wii it was minutes if you were lucky. And they were supplying a hell of a lot more if them. That thing was supply constrained until after the 2009 holidays. If you think the Switch's situation is comparable, then you're remembering it wrong.

Lol where are you getting this from? There was a major restock on several websites last week and they were all sold out in minutes. Yes the Wii was selling out, it had immense demand, but it was more available than the Switch has been.
 
Switch sales are solid good but I really wish Arms sold more and I actually bought two copies of the game. I probably have a weird fixation with supporting first party new IP because I also have multiple copies of gravity rush, sunset overddrive and tearaway, I always feel like they have an uphill battle to fight and try to do my part as a consumer to help bolster their sales in some capacity. I just hope Arms sales didn't discourage Nintendo to stop investing in new ip, it really helps keep this industry fresh and interesting for me anyway.

I feel like that's an incredibly encouraging start for an exclusive new fighting IP on a console base of less than 5 million.
 
Switch sales are solid good but I really wish Arms sold more and I actually bought two copies of the game. I probably have a weird fixation with supporting first party new IP because I also have multiple copies of gravity rush, sunset overddrive and tearaway, I always feel like they have an uphill battle to fight and try to do my part as a consumer to help bolster their sales in some capacity. I just hope Arms sales didn't discourage Nintendo to stop investing in new ip, it really helps keep this industry fresh and interesting for me anyway.

Um ... are you under the impression that ARMS isn't performing well, that's over a million copies in two weeks.

Why would that discourage Nintendo from making original IP?
 

HeeHo

Member
Not sure where to ask this but:

Is it bad to let your Switch tablets battery go down all the way to near 0%? I accidentally did after unplugging the power to the dock for about a week.

Just wondering if it'll effect overall battery life. I usually make it a point to power it completely down and I even felt like one time I left the dock unplugged for almost a month and turned my switch on and it was still at 40% battery.

I thought I was safe leaving it unplugged but I guess not. Maybe I accidentally left it in sleep mode though.
 
I don't know why you're not understanding this. When I say stock pile all I mean is sit on a larger order shipment. Again, unless their actual order volumes are being capped by suppliers there iz literally no reason why they cant order larger quantities of units.
If all they need to do is order more, why aren't Nintendo doing that right now? Are they just assholes, laughing at the consumers who can't find their device?

I don't think so. But the only alternative to artificial scarcity is that there is real scarcity. It is supremely clear that Nintendo can't order larger quantities of units. I'm not sure why you don't see this basically tautological truth. There is effectively a supplier cap on order volumes, because a high proportion of their production capacity is inflexibly dedicated to Apple. It would be a universal benefit to both sides for them to make more for Nintendo, yet they aren't. How do you explain this?

They started full production of switch sometime between late October and November last year for a launch in March. That is about 4 months of production to hit the 2.7m units they sold in March, however, what I'm suggesting is exactly what you're saying, that for a November launch, they start full production in March 2016 to fill a larger holiday order at the same ~22k a day, over those extra 3 months is 2 million more switch devices ready for launch.
But that's not how it would work. For one thing, launch units must ship by a month before the date, to make it to shelves on time. So the 2.74m were made in 3 months, not 4. However, this was during months when Apple was not hogging components. If Nintendo started in March 2016 for November they'd have more time, but they'd also be producing less per month, just like they are now in spring and summer 2017. Instead of 3 months at ~30k per day, they'd have 6 months at ~22k per day. That would increase launch to a putative 3.96m, and provide an extra 750k in the following quarter (with no Apple competition). But then the imaginary third quarter would be lower than real Switch, somewhat mitigating the advantage.

All in all, they'd get about 1.7m more. But as I said, this would be pretty meaningless overall. They'd still be behind PS4 (and now with no "but it didn't launch at holiday" rationalization available), and within a year they'd be back behind Wii, GBA, and DS again.

...In theory. This is all very tenuous projection, and I wouldn't put much stock in it. But I also don't think there's a more plausible version where they could achieve the "extra 2m at launch, extra 3m overall" level you suggest.
 

Bronetta

Ask me about the moon landing or the temperature at which jet fuel burns. You may be surprised at what you learn.
ARMs over a million after less than a month is impressive. This wacky new fighting game is going to outsell Street Fighter V soon.
 
ARMS is selling well which is nice. Not sure it'll do 4M like Splatoon 1 did but hopefully the updates are substantial enough to keep it going for awhile.
At least enough to make a sequel. Probably a lot you can build upon it. I think the characters are too good for what they're currently given.

Hope this makes Nintendo want to invest in new IP more as well. Splatoon, ARMS, and a revamped Zelda being new experiences showcasing a new system is pretty cool
 

olimpia84

Member
Very impressed sales and numbers so far all around. It'll be interesting to see what they do to keep this up into the end of the year and next year.
 
I'm very curious to see Splatoon 2's numbers whenever they're available. It's the first game since Zelda that a huge majority of my Switch friends list has been playing (only one other person got ARMS 😕)
 

Zambayoshi

Member
It's gonna be really interesting to se FIFA's performance on the system. That's gonna be the first big test for third parties imo. The userbase is there with nearly 6 million Switches sold at the time FIFA comes out and the early previews were positive across the board. I really can't see a scenario where that game doesn't ride the wave of success Switch is having right now.

EA will put FIFA on pretty much anything though. They know it will sell sufficient quantities to justify the port (which they usually put very little effort into).

The real test will be the first AAA non-sports games that EA, Acti etc choose to put on the Switch. You've got Rayman and Skyrim and other games that are kind of like a hedged bet. Big names but not requiring huge investment of resources.

If you get an Assassin's Creed spin-off (like Liberty) or a CoD spin-off (like Black Ops: Declassified) and it does well, you'll be more likely to get further investment from the big publishers. The failure of CoD on Vita meant that Activision didn't put anything apart from Sponge Bob and Angry Birds on the platform from then on. After Need for Speed Most Wanted failed to get great sales, EA only put FIFA on the platform from then on.

I think publishers will give the platform a chance, but they'll carefully measure sales versus install base and see if it makes commercial sense to keep investing resources in Switch releases.

Publishers have learned that the majority of non-Japanese Nintendo owners mainly buy Nintendo IPs. Can the Switch's hybrid nature help buck this trend? We'll find out within the next 12 months.
 

NateDrake

Member
ARMS was never going to be as big as Splatoon.

If ARMS hits 2m I would consider that a great success, all things considered. It set a foundation for a potential sequel and if they flesh out the lore and character backgrounds in a sequel via a Story Mode, the series has great potential.

I'm curious to see what future updates bring to ARMS.
 
Will be interesting to watch, I do wonder what software they are going to have though seeing as some of their biggest franchises are already out and they are still keeping 3DS alive? I guess there's probably tonnes of handheld stuff that I just don't know of as I don't play it.

Some of Nintendos biggest sellers are yet to come. Pokemon is without a doubt the biggest HW mover they have, it's going to be huge. They still have animal crossing, smash bros, 2D Mario, fire emblem, Kirby, metroid etc. Nintendo still has plenty of aces up their sleeve and that's assuming they don't have more new franchises on the way.

There are still big 3rd party games like yokai watch which will almost certainly be coming to the switch.
 

rockyt

Member
Why is everybody so dependent on one NAND supplier? Did no one foresee this becoming a problem before now?

Only so much can be produced in a time frame. It's very costly to increase production and speed. More expensive equipment and new hire needed to be hired. The demand outweigh what can be feasibly produce without loss of profit. NAND does not have 100 pct good production rate. Increasing to fast can also raise rejection rate.

Basically it is limited supply till either demand goes down or millions need to be spent to bring another production line online.
 
If ARMS hits 2m I would consider that a great success, all things considered. It set a foundation for a potential sequel and if they flesh out the lore and character backgrounds in a sequel via a Story Mode, the series has great potential.

I'm curious to see what future updates bring to ARMS.

I agree. I didn't buy it because it's not enough for me. The only fighting game I play is Smash and that has a lot of content in it + everyone I know buys it. I guess it helps when Smash has all these famous characters in it too lol.
 
ARMS was never going to be as big as Splatoon.

Thanks, I never would have guessed /s

I knew that it'd be more niche and am rather pessimistic of how it'll end up doing as a whole. I'd say that 2 million for its lifetime sales is somewhat realistic, which is about 40 percent of Splatoon's lifetime sales on Wii U.
 
Some of Nintendos biggest sellers are yet to come. Pokemon is without a doubt the biggest HW mover they have, it's going to be huge. They still have animal crossing, smash bros, 2D Mario, fire emblem, Kirby, metroid etc. Nintendo still has plenty of aces up their sleeve and that's assuming they don't have more new franchises on the way.

There are still big 3rd party games like yokai watch which will almost certainly be coming to the switch.

I see people say this in almost every topic with "Nintendo released all their big franchise what else they do they?"

That's something you don't need to worry about. Nintendo has a ton of franchises and you listed Pokémon, which will be the biggest push for Switch. I wouldn't be surprised if Pokémon sold 20 million if all goes well.
 

Sadist

Member
Haha people citing Rayman as a big name. Legends performed better on Wii U, even with verslons on more popular systems. Legends Switch is another way for Ubisoft to get some money out of the game.
 
I see people say this in almost every topic with "Nintendo released all their big franchise what else they do they?"

That's something you don't need to worry about. Nintendo has a ton of franchises and you listed Pokémon, which will be the biggest push for Switch. I wouldn't be surprised if Pokémon sold 20 million if all goes well.

Yeah, three of the five best-selling games on 3DS are Pokemon titles. Pokemon X/Y and Pokemon Sun/Moon in particular occupy the #1/#2 spots at around 16 million each. The franchise is huge. That's also ignoring that Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, 3D Mario, 2D Mario, Smash Bros, Metroid Prime, Fire Emblem, Kirby, and a number of other big franchises have yet to see new entries on the Switch. I've honestly never heard someone say that all the big franchises were already on Switch until now.
 

oti

Banned
I think Toshiba being one of the biggest(or the biggest?) supplier caught everyone off guard by shitting the bed.
Toshiba will need to sell off their chip business. We'll see who's going to buy it and what that'll mean for production.
 

AniHawk

Member
Will be interesting to watch, I do wonder what software they are going to have though seeing as some of their biggest franchises are already out and they are still keeping 3DS alive? I guess there's probably tonnes of handheld stuff that I just don't know of as I don't play it.

don't be pessimistic about the switch. its best years are ahead of it. the platform won't hit its apex until 2019 and after that it should be a steady decline.

and 3ds is done. nintendo's making it into a legacy platform that they can sell for a lower-end market through 2019 like they did for ds and wii into the 3ds and wii u's lifetime.
 

random25

Member
Interest in Pokemon is also bigger now. I wonder if Nintendo will ever release a Switch with mobile data then release Pokemon Go. Would be massive.

It still needs a GPS though.

I think mainline Pokemon is pretty much fine for the Switch. They'll just let their mobile games remain on phones.
 

Fiendcode

Member
If all they need to do is order more, why aren't Nintendo doing that right now? Are they just assholes, laughing at the consumers who can't find their device?

I don't think so. But the only alternative to artificial scarcity is that there is real scarcity. It is supremely clear that Nintendo can't order larger quantities of units. I'm not sure why you don't see this basically tautological truth. There is effectively a supplier cap on order volumes, because a high proportion of their production capacity is inflexibly dedicated to Apple. It would be a universal benefit to both sides for them to make more for Nintendo, yet they aren't. How do you explain this?
You're still not getting it. The issue with Nintendo supply is they can't adjust volumes up now, that they know they have a certified hit on their hands. That doesn't mean the initial part allotments couldn't have been higher with the proper foresight thpugh, and the argument is that with a holiday launch those initial orders would have naturally been less conservative. Maybe only a million more, but that'd have been enough to drive it near the top of your "adjusted" list.

Really hope we get another 1,2 Switch.

Haven't had this much fun with a party game in years. Years. This one will have a long shelf life for sure, but still a great use of the new hardware and so much potentional for more eye-contact mini experiences for up to 20 players.
It's from the team who originated Wario Ware, Rhythm Heaven and Kiki Trick fyi.

Why is everybody so dependent on one NAND supplier? Did no one foresee this becoming a problem before now?
Nintendo actually uses two NAND suppliers for Switch. Samsung and Toshiba.
 
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