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Pachter on PS5: Bets on 2020 launch now, PS4 Pro to become "default PS4"
- Thread starter Bitch Pudding
- Start date
Graphics Horse
Member
They'll be able to knock out a Knack 3 by then.
Lol no console will be 60fps first and foremost
Primethius
Banned
Yep, this is it.
Shin
Banned
With all the BC findings and what's not I'm just buying games without having a PS4.
Hopefully it all pans out when PS5 releases and I'll be able to play the best version of said games then.
Until then I'll keep focusing on buying CSGO top5 skins and patiently wait for the next-generation.
Late 2020 is inline with what I expect, I just hope the machine itself isn't a letdown graphically/ in terms of power.
Hopefully it all pans out when PS5 releases and I'll be able to play the best version of said games then.
Until then I'll keep focusing on buying CSGO top5 skins and patiently wait for the next-generation.
Late 2020 is inline with what I expect, I just hope the machine itself isn't a letdown graphically/ in terms of power.
Okami Haundo
Member
Interesting take! Personally, I don't see Sony wanting the PS4 Pro to have any kind of forward-compatibility with PS5. At best, I expect that PS5 will have full PS4 backwards compatibility but that's about it. Even then, I wouldn't be fully surprised to see them continue to treat PSNow as their BC solution.
I'm not sure about a date, but I'd also be willing to bet that PS5 comes out before whatever the next Xbox is by at least a year.
I'm not sure about a date, but I'd also be willing to bet that PS5 comes out before whatever the next Xbox is by at least a year.
Yes. Because that would mean the PS5 would use the same architecture as the PS4.
This is a safe, and sane, prediction.
Mid-gen upgrades will never be the default. You don't throw 60 million of your userbase under the bus.
Bitch Pudding
Member
I like my Pro, but frankly every game which is possible on a PS4 Pro is possible on a standard PS4 as well, given they basically share the same CPU and memory solution and are only separated by a befier GPU.
If PS5 offers out-of-the-box BC to PS4 games (w/o any patches) this would be a huge switching trigger for all those who already purchased a huge retail and especially digital PS4 library, including all those PS+ games. It would also kill the "has no gamz" problem at the beginning.
Of course not.
McHuj
Member
While I've always been betting on 2020, Pachter's logic is poor. It takes at least 3-4 years to develop a console. The decision has already been made when the next PS5 will launch and won't be based on how PS4 sales look in 2 years.
2020 feels right because new process technology should be readily available and cheap enough (7nm, GDDR6, maybe even HBM).
2020 feels right because new process technology should be readily available and cheap enough (7nm, GDDR6, maybe even HBM).
Graphics Horse
Member
The entire system will have to reliably emulate the behaviour of a PS4 if it does that, it's not as simple as just having an x64 cpu, so we don't know yet.
dickroach
Member
if no one's biting on the One X now, i dunno if anyone's going to be biting on the NextBox in two years.
freeofgreed
Member
He's right about 2020. I've been saying 2020 since launch. Any sooner is nonsense. As for the Pro being the default. I doubt it, but it really depends on how much competition the XBX. If the XBX performs similar to the pro. Then I predict the pro'd relevance will be the same as it is now, an after thought. But if the XBX does really well. The I could see Sony really pushing the Pro.
That's obviously going to be PS5's big launch exclusive.
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
lol. Hilarious. Didnt he recently say PS5 was going to be a half step and release in 2018 based on NO previous trends and data?
Everyone knew this was going to be a 7 year gen just like last gen seeing as how it had a slow start and how successful it was.
Besides, the tech needs to catch up to Sony and a 2018 release wouldnt have given them a cheap yet powerful GPU with an equally powerful CPU to make sure they dont repeat the same mistake again next gen.
2020 should be enough for a 12 tflop GPU with a decent CPU for $400-450. Maybe 15 tflop if Sony engineers can work their magic.
They had ZERO problems releasing God of War Ascension, TLOU, GT6 and Beyond on the PS3 the year PS4 launched. They will not delay TLOU2 to do a simultaneous launch on PS5 unless it gets delayed because of development issues.
I doubt the Pro becomes default PS4 either. That's just silly talk. Sony's biggest trump card is generational leaps. they arent going to make a 12-15 tflop console and have it be hamstrung by a 4 tflop last gen GPU. Whats the matter with this guy?
Everyone knew this was going to be a 7 year gen just like last gen seeing as how it had a slow start and how successful it was.
Besides, the tech needs to catch up to Sony and a 2018 release wouldnt have given them a cheap yet powerful GPU with an equally powerful CPU to make sure they dont repeat the same mistake again next gen.
2020 should be enough for a 12 tflop GPU with a decent CPU for $400-450. Maybe 15 tflop if Sony engineers can work their magic.
They had ZERO problems releasing God of War Ascension, TLOU, GT6 and Beyond on the PS3 the year PS4 launched. They will not delay TLOU2 to do a simultaneous launch on PS5 unless it gets delayed because of development issues.
I doubt the Pro becomes default PS4 either. That's just silly talk. Sony's biggest trump card is generational leaps. they arent going to make a 12-15 tflop console and have it be hamstrung by a 4 tflop last gen GPU. Whats the matter with this guy?
DonF
Member
Pro will never be default. Wtf is this even...
Ps4 amateur will be the cheap option, and it will get to the point that it will turn into a impulse buy, a gateway console even.
"oh look how cheap is that ps4, lets buy it...wait...what about that pro version? oh just $X more, ok lets buy that one"
Ps4 amateur will be the cheap option, and it will get to the point that it will turn into a impulse buy, a gateway console even.
"oh look how cheap is that ps4, lets buy it...wait...what about that pro version? oh just $X more, ok lets buy that one"
It physically can't be any shorter. Unless you want another mobile CPU in there.
nah. maybe 2020. but there's no point to Pro becoming "baseline unit"
i never understood the "sell a console without a disc drive for less money!", a disc drive is absolutely peanuts as a cost compared to the rest of the machine...and they would never be able to sell a PS4 without the features the other PS4s have, are they going to disable the dvd and blu ray drive functionalities of the OS or just lock them off and then piss off retailers by daring to try that?
i never understood the "sell a console without a disc drive for less money!", a disc drive is absolutely peanuts as a cost compared to the rest of the machine...and they would never be able to sell a PS4 without the features the other PS4s have, are they going to disable the dvd and blu ray drive functionalities of the OS or just lock them off and then piss off retailers by daring to try that?
I'm saying, that's pretty much a decent timetable to look at. waiting beyond 2020 would be much.
GermanZepp
Member
we agree a lot , we sould be buddies
You're going to get APUs in every future generation, the age of single cpu and single gpu is prety much over since it's not going to be financially viable to go that route.
Also APUs are getting better and better and AMD's lead there is only going to grow wider (since nVidia can't compete on that front and Intel is happy with just licensing tech)
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I think sales will start to decline badly in 2019 like how the numbers for the 360 and Wii and PS3 were terrible by the end of their lives, but the technology probably isn't ready until 2020 so I can't tell which would be right to bet on.
Have more than 30 people been working on TLoU2 outside of the last month.
Have more than 30 people been working on TLoU2 outside of the last month.
AuthenticM
Member
yeah I can see that.
Quintin DM
Member
Ya I agree I think 2020 sounds about right for PS5.
Soldiussnaku
Member
I agree with this, keeps the base ps4 having a nice long , but not too long, 6 year lifespan, and the pro a 3 year lifespan that can be cut down in price to 250$ or less for the 2019 xmas rush, maybe in a slimmer, cheap to produce model. Keeps the profit margins nice and fat for Sony, and a console to sell at an attractive mainstream price, makes it easier for devs to do cross gen games as well.
2020 is just too long for the PS4 base, by then it'll be ancient tech and the cpu will severely hold it back, plus why give up a first mover advantage over ms? It's highly unlikely MS will get another machine ready for 2 years, and they'll release their next machine in 2020. Having a year on the market with the ps5 will do wonders for Sony, we saw it with nvidia for the past year with pascal selling nicely and vega being a damp squib a year later, give that up for continued high sales of a low margin product? Nah, they can have both with the pro, a product that they can have flexible price scaling on thanks to the architecture and sell for a decent price, whilst getting the more premium, early adopter market with the ps5.
Shil Pencer
Member
SHOCKED!
AuthenticM
Member
How likely is it for the PS5 to use HBM RAM?
That can sometimes happen, where they will show developers two scenarios and ask which they would prefer, but once that's set, it can also come down to hardware development difficulties, like a key part getting delayed 6 months.
Michael Pachter
Wedbush
Wall Street Analyst
Ranked #4,273 out of 4,651 Analysts on TipRanks (#10,013 out of 10,805 overall experts)
ronaldthump
Member
No disc drive, no chance
Jasong7777
Banned
November 2019 most likely.
Killer Queen
Banned
It was always going to be 2020, don't know why anyone thought otherwise. 2019 is too soon especially for a console doing so well.
Don't ever see the pro becoming the default either.
Don't ever see the pro becoming the default either.
The Hamburglar
Banned
Utter bullshit that pro bees default ps4.
I just don't see why Sony should rush 2019, Microsoft just about to releas Scorpio and they aren't going to off that two years in and there is always the games, they take ages to make, you would be hitting 2019 with just cross gen games from your biggest studios at best with 2 years + of nothing.
PS4/Pro are one and same, Patcher talking nonsense. It will always be a contained gen while PS5 is separate with BC.
PS4/Pro are one and same, Patcher talking nonsense. It will always be a contained gen while PS5 is separate with BC.
I was about to say that the PS5 timing depends on the next Xbox platform but then I remembered that the XBX is just launching this year.
Would be crazy if Microsoft launches a new console just 2 years after the XBX just to piss of their hardcore fans.
RedAssedApe
Banned
why is that utter bullshit?
at some point certain newer games are going to have the minimum baseline specs increased if they really are going to adopt the cell phone model for upgrades.
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